Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC Vegas 111
UFC Vegas 111 delivers a stacked main card headlined by a pivotal welterweight clash between Gabriel Bonfim and Randy Brown, both seeking to cement their status in the division’s upper tier. Bonfim, riding a three-fight win streak that includes a controversial decision over Stephen Thompson, is known for his relentless grappling and technical prowess. Brown, a seasoned veteran with a black belt in BJJ, counters with a more diverse arsenal and a reach advantage, making him a dangerous stand-up threat.
The co-main event features flyweights Matt Schnell and Joseph Morales, with Morales favored due to his superior defensive stats and submission threat. Schnell, while less dominant on the ground, brings a higher striking output and experience in high-pressure fights. Another intriguing matchup is Muslim Salikhov versus Uros Medic, where Salikhov’s veteran savvy and takedown defense will be tested against Medic’s aggressive striking and knockout power.
Despite some last-minute cancellations thinning the undercard, the main event and co-main promise fireworks, with both Bonfim and Brown capable of making a statement that could propel them into the top 10. Expect a five-round war that could shape the welterweight landscape heading into 2026.
With a great fight card on tap, money can be made at the sportsbook this Saturday night. Home of Fight is here to help put money in your pockets and cash out at the window this Saturday night. Let’s take a look at the Home of Fight expert picks for UFC Vegas 110.
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown
- HayJive – Gabriel Bonfim
“Bonfim should have a lot of finishing upside early here and even though it is a 5 round fight, I think Bonfim could lean on his grappling to get it done.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Gabriel Bonfim
“I think Bonfim is still improving and has shown he can fight to a decision win. His grappling could even find him an early finish against a guy who’s been subbed by lesser grapplers.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Gabriel Bonfim
“Bonfim is a dominant submission artist and I see this as a buy-low spot for Brown, who had a tough fight with Wonderboy and is now taking a Brown, who is on a solid streak.”
- Corrie – Randy Brown
“I lean Randy Brown here because if he can survive those first seven minutes, where Bonfim is at his most dangerous with those early subs, the fight starts to swing his way. Brown’s got the experience, range, and composure to weather that early storm and if it gets extended, I trust his cardio and striking consistency to take over.”
- The Fight Analyst – Gabriel Bonfim
“Gabriel Bonfim was one of my favorite prospects coming into Contender Series, and now he’s making his presence known in his first main event against a tough veteran, Randy Brown. Brown’s length is going to be tough to deal with early, but once the calf kicks set in for Bonfim and he gets on the inside of the reach, that’s when Bonfim will start to dominate by taking Brown down, eventually finding the submission and getting the first UFC main event victory in his career.
Matt Schnell vs. Joseph Morales
- HayJive – Joseph Morales
“Morales should be able to get takedowns at will, there he can win minutes and likely finish.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Joseph Morales
“Joseph has great experience, striking, and his grappling can get it done too. Schnell’s durability is a major issue in this fight.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Joseph Morales
“Morales is going to be making statements in this division and he is quite well rounded while we know that Matt Schnell welcomes the grappling exchanges too.”
- Corrie – Joseph Morales
“Tbh I thought Schnell was already done but anyway, I like Joseph Morales ITD he’s younger, faster, and way more dangerous when he decides to hit the gas and while Schnell’s got solid skills, he’s not what he used to be, and if Morales finds that rhythm early, I don’t think this one goes for very long.”
- The Fight Analyst – Joseph Morales
“Morales shocked me and many others by absolutely dominating Alibi at the TUF Finale. His striking looked much improved, and his grappling is now some of the best in the flyweight division. Schnell is a former shell of himself, takes too much damage, and lacks in takedown defense. Morales will take full advantage of his grappling weakness and submit him inside two rounds.”
Muslim Salikhov vs. Uros Medic
- HayJive – Muslim Salikhov
“I don’t see this fight lasting very long but I think Salikhov is the better fighter. If he wasn’t 41 I think he’d be the favorite.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Muslim Salikhov
“Muslim’s striking is great, still has power obviously, and Uros’s chin is a red flag. I’ll take the underdog in this spot.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Muslim Salikhov
“Salikhov is always dangerous and while he is older, Medic has been getting tagged in all his fights and at welterweight, the circumstances are different.”
- Corrie – Muslim Salikhov
“Is he old as hell? Yeah. Is he the more durable and better fighter here? Also yes. He’s still sharp, still durable, and still timing guys beautifully and while Uros is fast and explosive, he’s he’s chinny and too chaotic to trust, and if he crashes the pocket wrong against someone as technical as Salikhov, I think the “old man strength” talks get real loud real quick.”
- The Fight Analyst – Uros Medic
“It’s going to come to a point where the age of Muslim Salikhov will be a detriment, and this is the weekend when it comes to a head. Medic has the size, speed, and power to land on Salikhov and has underrated grappling to make this a grinding type of fight. If Medic can close the distance without getting blasted in the process, he should keep his streaking going extending it to two in a row this weekend at UFC Vegas 111.”
Ismael Bonfim vs. Chris Padilla
- HayJive – Chris Padilla
“Bonfim is good but Padilla is just a winner. He’ll have the grappling advantage here and can compete with big moments in the striking.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Ismael Bonfim
“I think the leg kicks, and speed will be the difference. Padilla doesn’t usually push a crazy pace which will be good for Ismael.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Ismael Bonfim
“While Bonfim has been disappointing in the past, I do believe that he is able to be more aggressive than Padilla, who’s style does suit him more.”
- Corrie – Chris Padilla
“I’m rolling the dice on Chris Padilla here who, mind you, cashed three straight as an underdog, and he fights with that unbothered, gritty confidence you can’t teach. Meanwhile, Bonfim’s already dropped two fights as a big favorite and tends to crash forward recklessly and if he does that against Padilla, Chis’s toughness and counters could catch him.”
- The Fight Analyst – Ismael Bonfim
“Bonfim has had some tough matchups thus far in the UFC, with his two losses coming against surging lightweights Benoit Saint-Denis and Nazim Sadykhov. Bonfim is an elite striker who’s going to put on a clinic against Chris Padilla in this matchup. It’s going to come down to his takedown defense, and if it holds up, he should pick apart Padilla on the feet as he gets back on track at UFC Vegas 111.”
Ricky Simon vs. Raoni Barcelos
- HayJive – Raoni Barcelos
“Barcelos should be able to negate most of the wrestling from Simon, and in the striking he should be able to outwork him.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Ricky Simon
“Ricky has a little momentum now, has the wrestling to dictate where this fight goes, and has the youth on his side. Also a bit of power as well.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Ricky Simon
“At one point, this little run of Barcelos must come to an end, and Simon’s pressure heavy wrestling style with solid hands is the way to do it.”
- Corrie – Raoni Barcelos
“This one’s kind of a toss-up for me, but Raoni Barcelos at plus money just feels right… The only issue I see here is Ricky tiring Barcelos out because he just has infinite energy but Raoni’s sharper on the feet, throws nasty calf kicks, and just had an absolute war with Cody that showed he’s still got plenty left so I’m fine running with the dog shot.”
The Fight Analyst – Ricky Simon
“Ricky Simon is coming off two dominant performances and is looking the best he’s looked in quite some time. The speed, youth, athleticism, and cardio all side with Simon in this matchup. If Simon can avoid the big shots of Barcelos and make him tired with the relentless pace he puts on his opponents, he should outwork the aging Barcelos to a unanimous decision.”
Marco Tulio vs. Christian Leroy Duncan
- HayJive – Marco Tulio
“CLD is a good athlete but I think Tulio is the better fighter. Tulio should be able to mix in some takedowns here to keep CLD guessing and on the feet he is very good.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Marco Tulio
“Tulio has the style to give CLD problems with his relentless pressure, power, and mixing in the grappling. CLD on the back foot isn’t near as good as Tulio fighting downhill.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Marco Tulio
“Amazing fight, though I do believe that CLD does not enjoy closer exchanges and eventually, Tulio will cut the range and will be able to hurt CLD.”
- Corrie – Marco Tulio
“The man fights like he just shotgunned a Redbull and he’s mad about it. CLD’s got the flash and footwork for sure but Tulio’s pressure is relentless and mean in the best way and I can see him marching CLD down, especially in a smaller cage and showing just how much of an edge his aggression level gives him.”
- The Fight Analyst – Christian Leroy Duncan
“This is a matchup where I feel CLD is getting a bit disrespected on the betting lines. His takedown defense has improved dramatically, and he’s crafty on the feet, which is going to give someone like Tulio — who’s hittable — something to deal with. As long as CLD can keep this fight on his feet and at range, he can pick apart Tulio for a big win this weekend.”
🔍 Want to know more about each event? Visit homeoffight.com or any of our social media accounts for more articles, fighter interviews, and plenty of more coverage.
💰 Want to get in on the action? Visit homeoffight.com/picks to tail all of the Home of Fight expert’s picks & bets each week!
🥊 Content & coverage brought to you by LEGENDZ! Play online Social Casino & LIVE Sports Gambling!
