Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC Vegas 113
UFC Vegas 113 at the Meta APEX profiles as a sneaky-deep card headlined by a pivotal bantamweight clash between Mario Bautista and Vinicius Oliveira. Bautista is the more well-rounded operator, built on clean boxing, opportunistic grappling, and a steady pace over five rounds, while Oliveira brings the kind of one-shot power that can erase mistakes and has produced 16 career knockouts. Over 25 minutes, the question is whether Bautista’s pressure and clinch entries can blunt Oliveira’s explosiveness or if the Brazilian can consistently find counters as Bautista steps into range.
The co-main at flyweight is a fascinating generational crossroads, with Amir Albazi trying to reassert himself against veteran technician Kyoji Horiguchi. Jailton Almeida vs. Rizvan Kuniev adds heavyweight intrigue, pitting Almeida’s top game against Kuniev’s takedown defense and boxing. Further down the main card, Michal Oleksiejczuk vs. Marc-André Barriault guarantees pressure and volume, while unbeaten Farid Basharat meets dangerous prospect Jean Matsumoto in a high-level bantamweight chess match. Dustin Jacoby’s kickboxing experience against rising Julius Walker rounds out a main card that should offer a bit of everything for hardcore fans.
With a great fight card on tap, money can be made at the sportsbook this Saturday night. Home of Fight is here to help put money in your pockets and cash out at the window this Saturday night. Let’s take a look at the Home of Fight expert picks for UFC Vegas 113.
Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira
- HayJive – Vinicius Oliveira
“I’m siding with the underdog here in a fight that I think should be lined as a 50/50. Bautista is the more technically sound fighter, but Oliveira’s unorthodox attack and physical pressure makes all of his opponents uncomfortable. I like the danger factor from Oliveira.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Mario Bautista
“I think the cardio, the volume, and ability to match Vinicius everywhere should give him the edge.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Vinicius Oliveira
“I believe this is the perfect fight for him. He’s aggressive, has great counter-grappling and at the same time can deal with pressure and turn it on his opponent.”
- Corrie – Vinicius Oliveira
“My brain immediately went to a Mario decision, and while that’s probably the most likely outcome, these two are honestly pretty similar in a lot of ways. What keeps pulling me toward the underdog is the way Mario takes damage because he can get hurt, and he does here and there… And sure you can argue strength of resume and I’m like… okay, Mario again, fine. But if this fight goes to the judges, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Vinicius edges it out. I don’t hate the split decision prop here.”
- The Fight Analyst – Mario Bautista
“Vinicius Oliveira is arguably one of the most dangerous 135ers in the UFC, but Bautista has been there, done that, and faced the best of the best. Bautista will show there are levels to this and get back into the win column, setting up that rematch with Cory Sandhagen he’s been calling for.”
- Austin Swaim – Vinicius Oliveira
“Before a somewhat competitive loss to Umar, Mario Bautista’s strength of schedule was pretty weak with hairy moments — like hanging on for dear life against Jose Aldo. I’m not sure he’s seen one-punch power or physicality in conjunction like Vinicius Oliveira’s when “Lokdog”, at worst, seems to have a path to secure takedowns.”
Amir Albazi vs. Kyoji Horiguchi
- HayJive – Kyoji Horiguchi
“Albazi coming off the long layoff and health issues, while Horiguchi coming off a performance that was extremely impressive. I expect the footwork from Horiguchi to give Albazi a lot of problems here.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Kyoji Horiguchi
“Kyoji showed in his last fight he’s more than just a striker, but against Amir I believe he will keep it standing and be faster and sharper. I don’t see a great path for Albazi.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Kyoji Horiguchi
“Momentum matters and Albazi looked awful in his return to the octagon. Considering his injuries, time off and inability to make it to fight night, this is a dangerous fight for him.”
- Corrie – Kyoji Horiguchi
“I mean siding with a -400 favorite is nothing to be proud of but I just don’t trust Albazi right now… Too many injuries, too many pullouts, too much time off… Amir’s path to victory is narrow, and I don’t think he finds it.”
- The Fight Analyst – Kyoji Horiguchi
“It’s crazy how many wrote Horiguchi off against Ulanbekov as he cashed as a 2-1 underdog. Now the books peg him as a big favorite against Albazi, who hasn’t been inside the octagon in 15 months, as he’s coming off his worst performance of his UFC career. Horiguchi shows that he’s among the best 125ers in the division with another dominant performance against Albazi this weekend.”
- Austin Swaim – Kyoji Horiguchi
“I don’t want to complete bury Albazi when Kyoji Horiguchi’s takedown D (54%) is sort of rough on paper, but it’s tough to see the guy that pitched a shutout against Tagir Ulabekov not finding a way to bank two rounds with his hands at worst.”
Jailton Almeida vs. Rizvan Kuniev
- HayJive – Rizvan Kuniev
“If Almeida can’t get the early submission I expect Kuniev to take over. Big Rizz is a legit heavyweight with good athleticism and wrestling. Seems like a tough matchup for Almeida to thrive.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Rizvan Kuniev
“Rizvan will hold the striking edge, he’s a very physically strong fighter that I think will hinder the grappling of Almeida.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Jailton Almeida
“Despite a few boring performances, Almeida is a finisher. He is simply levels above Kuniev and will find entries in the takedowns and won’t be scared to unload ground and pound.”
- Corrie – Rizvan Kuniev
“Kuniev’s size, striking skills, and ability to hang in the wrestling may just make this way closer than it should be. He can survive the grappling, land more on the feet, and steal rounds, especially since Almeida doesn’t want to strike and hasn’t been doing enough damage on the ground. Almeida’s ceiling is still higher, but his floor is low, and that’s why this feels like a close, messy decision fight… Just like his last lost by split… So, happily taking a dog shot here.”
- The Fight Analyst – Rizvan Kuniev
“Kuniev arguably beat Blaydes in his UFC debut, and now he gets a one-note grappler in Almeida that has no striking and doesn’t take chances when in dominant positions on the mat. If Kuniev’s takedown defense holds up, he should outstrike and potentially finish Almeida to secure his first UFC victory.”
- Austin Swaim – Jailton Almeida
“Rizvan Kuniev is a similar “grappler with poor cardio” archetype that Jailton showed levels against Serghei Spivac and Alexandr Romanov. I’m not sure he even has either’s danger. I’m picking the Brazilian to silence some doubters after a tough effort against Volkov.”
Michal Oleksiejczuk vs. Marc-André Barriault
- HayJive – Michal Oleksiejczuk
“I expect Michal to do what he always does, come out hot, chip away, and find the power shot. With MAB’s durability looking on a down slope, it could be an early KO for Michal.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Michal Oleksiejczuk
“The pressure is what makes Michal hard to deal with, and MAB has shown a few durability issues lately. I see Michal landing big shots early and getting the win.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Michal Oleksiejczuk
“Barriault’s durability was great in his last fight, though the momentum from Michal has been good and his new patient yet aggressive approach will work well for him.”
- Corrie – Michal Oleksiejczuk
“Michal is durable and has a real power advantage here and has some solid UFC experience so far, and while his grappling still isn’t where it needs to be, sure, he’s at least consistent in what he does well. On the other side, MAB feels like he’s struggling right now and not just in the cage, but mentally. He’s openly talked about “how deeply he feels”, and his mental health concerns in regards to his career, and being that emotionally invested can cut both ways. Lately, it feels like it’s softened him more than sharpened him and that’s not the headspace I want to back yanno.”
- The Fight Analyst – Michal Oleksiejczuk
“This should be a fun fight for however long it lasts. Both fighters are going to look for the knockout, but Oleksiejczuk is the more technical striker with durability, as he should eventually land a big shot on Barriault, putting him away within two rounds.”
- Austin Swaim – Michal Olekesijczuk
“This is tough sledding for Marc-Andre Barriault. Never armed with elite grappling, his chin and porous striking defense (50%) have started to give way at 35. I can’t trust him to last 15 minutes with Oleksiejczuk’s massive pop.”
Jean Matsumoto vs. Farid Basharat
- HayJive – Farid Basharat
“I expect a 29-28 decision here, but ultimately I will take Basharat who can get top time and is the more defensively responsible fighter. As long as he can keep up with the pace of Matsumoto I think I gets his hand raised.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Farid Basharat
“Farid has the ability to mix it up in all aspects of MMA. I also think he has the cardio edge which is what this fight could come down to.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Jean Matsumoto
“High level matchup. I do believe that Matsumoto has more of the “dog” element that matters when a fight is close and when there’s a similar skill level, this is what makes the difference.”
- Corrie – Farid Basharat
“This is a coin-flip if I’ve ever seen one because Basharat’s control and well-rounded skill set give him the edge on paper, but Jean’s pressure and durability make every round competitive and the longer I think about it, the more I flip flop so…. I’ll pick Farid for the sake of the article, but I’m backing Jean on the spread because if this goes to a decision, it’s not a shutout like it’s not gonna be a 30-27, and I think that Jean could absolutely be live for the finish.”
- The Fight Analyst – Farid Basharat
“This should be the toughest fight of Basharat’s young UFC career against the surging Matsumoto. However, Basharat’s ability to mix his attacks on the feet as well as the takedowns will make it difficult for Matsumoto to get into rhythm. From there Basharat just outworks Matsumoto for the decision victory to remain unbeaten.”
- Austin Swaim – Jean Matsumoto
“This could be a razor-thin decision between bantamweights known for them, but it’s actually Matsumoto — via a setback against Rob Font and war with Miles Johns — that has more top-shelf experience, and I’m projecting growth every trip to the cage for the 26-year-old.”
Dustin Jacoby vs. Julius Walker
- HayJive – Julius Walker
“Gimme the guy that’s 11 years younger, has all of the grappling upside in the matchup, and isn’t traveling from Australia on fight week. Jacoby clearly has more UFC experience, but unless he finds an early KO, I don’t see him cruising to a win easily here.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Dustin Jacoby
“Julius has shown big liability in the striking defense. Jacoby is super sharp with his hands and kicks along with good takedown defense.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Dustin Jacoby
“Aggressive presence, patience striking, and power. Jacoby’s experience will make a difference in this fight.”
- Corrie – Dustin Jacoby
“Short notice for both guys, but Jacoby’s UFC experience and vet status matter here and sure, the grappling is the clear concern, but if this stays on the feet, I favor Jacoby. As much as I like Julius Walker, he does get touched, and when he gets touched, he wobbles. Jacoby is almost always striking at range, has real power, and that’s a spot where he can absolutely find a finish. Not to mention Juicebox also tends to end up in the clinch and that’s another area where Jacoby is solid and comfortable.”
- The Fight Analyst – Dustin Jacoby
“Jacoby is just too skilled and experienced to lose to someone like Walker, who’s still green in many areas. This was on full display when he went the distance with and got hurt by Cerqueira, who’s been finished in under three minutes in three of his four UFC defeats (two in under 1 minute).”
- Austin Swaim – Dustin Jacoby
“While still believing in Julius Walker’s ceiling, Jacoby feels like too much too soon unless the physical gap between these two is decided early. Jacoby’s sprawl, jab, and experience are three difficult components to wrestle into and pull the upset.”
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