Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC Vegas 115
UFC Vegas 115 lands at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas this Saturday, April 4, headlined by a barnburner lightweight clash between two American Top Team teammates.
Renato Moicano (20-7-1) enters this bout on back-to-back losses to Beneil Dariush and Islam Makhachev, brutal tests that exposed real holes in his game against elite competition. Now he faces Chris Duncan (15-2-0), a heavy-handed brawler who enters as the -166 favorite and has finished three of his last five fights inside Round 1. Moicano’s submission game is dangerous; 10 of his 20 wins come via submission, but Duncan’s raw power and willingness to brawl could neutralize the Brazilian’s grappling-heavy approach. Expect fireworks early.
The women’s strawweight division gets a spotlight bout as Virna Jandiroba (22-4-0) battles Tabatha Ricci (12-3-0) in a near pick-em matchup with Jandiroba sitting as the slight favorite at -135. Both fighters are submission threats, making this a chess match on the feet with potential chaos if the fight hits the mat.
The rest of the main card features numerous undefeated prospects. In the featured bout, Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (8-0) looks to remain perfect and add another first-round finish to his resume in a light heavyweight clash with Brendson Ribeiro(17-9). Then flyweight prospect Rafael Estevam (14-0), who’s moving up to bantamweight after missing weight in two out of his last three, will face off against surging Ethyn Ewing (9-2), who’s coming off a monumental debut victory against Malcolm Wellmaker.
While former bantamweight champion “Suga” Sean O’Malley’s protege Tommy McMillan (9-0) makes his highly anticipated debut against Italy’s Manola Zecchini (11-4). Then rounding out the main card is a featherweight matchup between Robert Ruchala (11-2) vs. UFC debutant Jose Delano (16-3).
With a great fight card on tap, money can be made at the sportsbook this Saturday night. Home of Fight is here to help put money in your pockets and cash out at the window this Saturday night. Let’s take a look at the Home of Fight expert picks for UFC Vegas 115.
Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan
HayJive – Chris Duncan
- “I’ll take Chris Duncan here. Moicano could have some early success, but Duncan is extremely tough and just finds ways to win fights. It’s not always pretty, but he consistently gets it done”
Nolan (TheParlay) – Chris Duncan
- “This fight could be extremely close, but I have to take the fighter with more left to prove. Duncan might be able to dog it out to a win.”
JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Renato Moicano
- “The fight will be resumed by experience. Duncan is dangerous but Moicano can handle danger to the point where his crafty BJJ can become an element. “
The Fight Analyst – Renato Moicano
- “Moicano is still a crafty veteran and even in the loss against a perennial top-10 lightweight in Beneil Dariush, he had his moments. I expect Duncan to come out strong, but if Moicano weather it, he can take over the down stretch, giving his teammate the vet lesson.”
Austin Swaim – Renato Moicano
- “Picking against Home of Fight’s own previously gives me credibility to pick him here. The American Top Team connection between Moicano and Duncan, to me, could produce a 25-minute sparring match. Even if it doesn’t, it’s Duncan’s 50% takedown D that’s a greater concern to stay upright. I understand the Scotsman is the more powerful athlete in his prime, but Moicano’s standup and submission danger have graded out significantly better against a higher level of competition.”
Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci
HayJive – Tabatha Ricci
- “I don’t see Virna being able to consistently take Ricci down and control her. If this stays competitive on the feet, Ricci’s activity should be the difference. She’s strong, durable, and has the grappling to hold her own.”
Nolan (TheParlay) – Virna Jandiroba
- “Tabitha needs to keep it standing to make this close. She fights on very thin margins and Virna just went to a close decision with the champ. I think Jandiroba can win minutes here.”
JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Tabatha Ricci
- “Ricci can keep this standing, has underrated striking while we know Jandiroba does little on the feet and strictly relies on control, compared to Ricci who knows how to edge decisions.”
The Fight Analyst – Tabatha Ricci
- “If Jandiroba had a hard time taking down Dern, she’s certainly going to have trouble taking down a judoka black belt like Ricci. This fight is Ricci’s to lose as long as she’s not flat on her back.”
Austin Swaim – Virna Jandiroba
- “Though it’d be easy to toss Virna aside after her title fight gone wrong, she’s established this level before with a submission of Amanda Lemos and a near-submission of Loopy Godinez. Tabatha Ricci has fought five straight strikers — and unsuccessfully so at times. Ricci is the better athlete, but if this fight hits the mat at any point in any positions, a BJJ gap could be extremely evident.”
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev vs. Brendson Ribeiro
HayJive – Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
- “Yakhyaev is a big favorite for a reason. Well-rounded, dangerous, and should have a clear edge everywhere. Feels like a spot where he can get an early finish.”
Nolan (TheParlay) – Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
- “I think there’s too much fire power from Yakhyaev on the feet early. If he wants to go to the wrestling and grappling that will be an option the whole fight as well.”
JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
- “Just far too dominant and skilled while Ribeiro is a static target to be hit. .”
The Fight Analyst – Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
- “Ribeiro just doesn’t have what it takes to stop Yakhyaev from doing whatever he wants and finishing him in the first round.”
Austin Swaim – Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
- “Betting markets here indicate the drama is if Brendson Ribeiro, thrice a first-round finish victim in UFC, can even last five minutes. While I get that Yakhyaev has been sensational in two squash matches thus far, Ribeiro has tools and experience to prolong this fight and survive. Winning it? Not so much.”
Rafael Estevam vs. Ethyn Ewing
HayJive – Ethyn Ewing
- “Ewing will likely have to deal with early takedowns, but I don’t trust his opponent to maintain control for three rounds. As the fight goes on, Ewing’s boxing and pace should take over.”
Nolan (TheParlay) – Ethyn Ewing
- “Ethyn has a large edge in the striking here. Estevam is a great grappler at 125lb but is moving up here to fight a much stronger fighter than his previous opponents.”
JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Ethyn Ewing
- “Tricky matchup considering how Estevam fights, though up and weight class and with the inability to cause actual damage, I am picking Ewing. “
The Fight Analyst – Ethyn Ewing
- “While Estevam was a big flyweight, he’s not a big bantamweight. He utilized his size to dominate with his grappling, which is going to be tough to accomplish against a bigger, stronger, and faster fighter like Ewing. Estevam may have some early success until he starts to fade and gets pieced up down the stretch by Ewing”
Austin Swaim – Ethyn Ewing
- “I’ve been looking to fade Rafael Estevam, and a transition to 135 pounds is the place. Estevam needed his “weight bully” wrestling to survive a dicey third round opposite Jesus Aguilar, and he straight up robbed Charles Johnson. Ewing’s takedown D stood up in his memorable upset at MSG, and I think his excellent footwork and shot selection piece apart the Brazilian for an encore.”
Tommy McMillen vs. Manolo Zecchini
HayJive – Tommy McMillen
- “McMillen might be a bit overpriced, but the wrestling edge is real. Against Zecchini, that should be enough to control the fight and get the win.”
Nolan (TheParlay) – Tommy McMillen
- “Tommy is the better fighter here, more durability, and can get through a dog fight. I think his grappling will eventually get this fight to where he wants it.”
JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Tommy McMillen
- “The UFC knows what they are doing here, it’s not rocket science.”
The Fight Analyst – Tommy McMillen
- “This is a setup fight for the ‘Suga Show’ protege. McMillen goes in there and makes quick work of the Italian and sends him packing.”
Austin Swaim – Tommy McMillen
- “Many are pointing to McMillen’s DWCS shortcomings as a reason he shouldn’t be this big of a favorite here, but Manolo Zecchini is leagues below David Mgoyan in skill and experience. The Italian has only fought four pro fighters with a winning record. McMillan’s pressure, hand speed, and ability to lock up chokes are live to stop this fight at any point from the opening bell.”
Robert Ruchala vs. Jose Delano
HayJive – Jose Delano
- “Delano is one of the better prospects from the Contender Series. He should be able to deal with the kicking game, defend takedowns, and let his boxing take over.”
Nolan (TheParlay) – Jose Delano
- “Jose is such a great prospect who will land the bigger shots here, can hold his own against the cage, and has more finishing upside between the two.”
JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Jose Delano
- “Ruchala is tough, though I believe Delano to be the craftier and more skilled fighter.”
The Fight Analyst – Jose Delano
- “Delano was the most complete and UFC-ready prospect on DWCS last season. They are throwing him into the fire immediately against another experienced veteran of the sport, Ruchala. This should be a damn good fight to open up the main card, and while Ruchala will be dangerous, Delano is just too technical to get caught. Also, his movement and striking will be too much for Ruchala to handle.”
Austin Swaim – Jose Delano
- “Robert Ruchala is probably underrated by the betting line, but Delano is one of the cleanest prospects off DWCS that I can remember. He dominated to post a +7.20 striking success rate there in an extended sample, and his only pro loss since 2015 came to Gabriel Santos. Ruchala can get a bit wild, so don’t rule out a KO.”
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