Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC Vegas 117
All eyes are on the Meta APEX in Las Vegas this Saturday as UFC Vegas 117 delivers a loaded featherweight-heavy main card.
In the main event, Arnold Allen (20-4) looks to reassert himself as a top-ten featherweight against the surging Melquizael Costa (26-7), who enters riding a six-fight win streak. Allen’s technical boxing and composure are elite, but Costa’s volume and improving grappling make this a legitimate five-round chess match.
Co-main action brings the long-awaited pairing of fan favorite Doo Ho Choi (16-4-1) against the aggressive Daniel Santos (13-2). Expect fireworks, both men love to engage, and Choi’s clean combinations against Santos’s relentless pressure sets the stage for a potential Fight of the Night candidate.
In the bantamweight division, rising prospect Malcolm Wellmaker (10-1) squares off against the well-rounded Juan Diaz (15-1-1). Wellmaker carries serious finishing power and profiles as the more dangerous early fighter. At a catchweight of 215 pounds, the experienced Modestas Bukauskas (19-7) takes on UFC newcomer Christian Edwards (8-4), and Bukauskas’s edge in composure and striking should prove decisive.
The bantamweight clash between Timmy Cuamba (10-3) and Bernardo Sopaj (12-3) screams high action, with Sopaj’s explosive early danger contrasted by Cuamba’s relentless pace and pressure. Closing out the main card, the heavy-handed Khaos Williams (15-5) enters as a serious threat against welterweight Nikolay Veretennikov (14-7). One clean shot from Williams can end any fight instantly, making him a massive fan-favorite pick.
With a great fight card on tap, money can be made at the sportsbook this Saturday night. Home of Fight is here to help put money in your pockets and cash out at the window this Saturday night. Let’s take a look at the Home of Fight expert picks for UFC Vegas 117.
Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa
HayJive – Arnold Allen
- “Arnold Allen has faced the much better level of competition, and the southpaw stance could create problems for Costa’s kicking-heavy style. In the small cage, I expect Allen to pressure forward, establish the jab, and control the fight.”
Nolan – Melquizael Costa
- “Costa is surging while Arnold Allen seems to be a finished product. I think costa is still improving each fight out.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Arnold Allen
- “I believe Allen has more experience, been in more high level matchups, has a boxing advantage. Costa is dangerous, but I can expect Allen to cut into boxing range successfully.”
The Fight Analyst – Melquizael Costa
- “Costa has been on an absolute tear, and while Allen is still a tough out, he’s not at his peak anymore. Costa’s diverse striking, especially kicks, will help him stay out of the boxing range of Allen and piece him up to the biggest win of his UFC career.”
Austin Swaim – Melquizael Costa
- “Arnold Allen’s level of competition is respectable, but you have to actually compete with them at some point. It shouldn’t be taken lightly that Melky Costa was the first man to knock out both Morgan Charriere and Dan Ige when, previously, his entire style was predicated on striking volume and sneaky submission danger. I see a guy who has filled out his frame — and his game — to legitimately compete at 145. My model has Costa as 53.1% likely to win this one.”
Doo Ho Choi vs. Daniel Santos
HayJive – Daniel Santos
- “Taira should have a major grappling edge in this matchup. If he gets to his back control and body triangle positions, things could get dangerous quickly for Van. Van has paths late if the grappling isn’t working, but I trust Taira to eventually find success on the ground.”
Nolan – Doo Ho Choi
- “Choi is a technician and has a lot of power, decent scrambling abilities, and experience with high levels of competition. ”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Daniel Santos
- “Explosive, can grapple, is aggressive and has a great chin. This is his third Korean Fighter in a row, unrelated, though it’s funny. ”
The Fight Analyst – Daniel Santos
- “Santos has been sneakily good during his time in the UFC, and I believe he’s starting to come into his own. While Choi is still a dangerous striker, Santos will utilize his improving ground game to neutralize that to get the submission victory.”
Austin Swaim – Doo Ho Choi
- “This fight should be a ton of fun — as most “Willycat” Santos fights are. I just can’t help but wonder how good the Brazilian is when his last two dominant wins were over Road to UFC foes. On the other hand, “The Korean Superboy” has demolished two consecutive divisional stalwarts, and his superior striking metrics could carry him to a win if he’s able to overcome a poor takedown defense (47%) on paper. I’ve got Choi 52.4% likely to win.”
Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz
HayJive – Malcolm Wellmaker
- “Diaz is a solid fighter, but I think Wellmaker is the cleaner and more dynamic striker. He should have the edge in overall danger and shot selection throughout the fight.”
Nolan – Waldo Cortes-Acosta
- “Malcom could bounce back in a big way here. I think his speed, accuracy, and power will be the factor.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Malcolm Wellmaker
- “I think Diaz is solid, but the timing from Wellmaker will be elite here, especially when we consider how well his Ewing loss has aged. ”
The Fight Analyst – Malcolm Wellmaker
- “Now that Wellmaker doesn’t have to protect his undefeated record, he should be able to open up more. We will see that in this fight against a game opponent in Diaz. However, Diaz gets hit a lot, and that will not bode well against someone with the power of Wellmaker.”
Austin Swaim – Malcolm Wellmaker
- “Juan Diaz’s DWCS highlight was a blast, but he was in an extremely competitive affair before that. That’s a red flag when we’ve seen so many dominant DWCS winners struggle in UFC . Malcolm Wellmaker ran into a buzzsaw last time out against Ethyn Ewing, and the fight being at 145 pounds probably hurt the one-punch power he carries at bantamweight. Neither fighter in this matchup has been finished at distance, so this could be an all-out war where I believe the American lands the harder shots”
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards
HayJive – Modestas Bukauskas
- “Edwards will likely look to grapple, but I’m not convinced he can consistently get that going here. Bukauskas has the experience edge and should be able to keep this fight where he wants it and land the better shots.”
Nolan – Modestas Bukauskas
- “Modestas is far more experienced and technical. This is a step down for him and he should be able to stay safe and land frequently on Edwards.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Modestas Bukauskas
- “Just has more power, experience and was originally preparing for this fight compared to Edwards.”
The Fight Analyst – Modestas Bukauskas
- “Had to trust Bukauskas as such a big favorite, but he should handle Edwards in all facets of this fight.”
Austin Swaim – Modestas Bukauskas
- “UFC is getting progressively more shameful about these last-minute bookings. Christian Edwards’ training partners are solid, but he’s been slimed out and tapped out by significantly less accomplished fighters than “The Baltic Gladiator”. I have my issues with Modestas Bukauskas, but this fight is below the level he’s already established.”
Timmy Cuamba vs. Benardo Sopaj
HayJive – Timmy Cuamba
- “Cuamba has the speed, size, and more complete skill set in this matchup. He’s also been the more active fighter, and at this stage, there’s just more to like from him overall.”
Nolan – Benardo Sopaj
- “I think Sopaj has better skills all around. His power is evident and ability to wrestle could come in handy. “
JJ (The Octagon King) – Benardo Sopaj
- “Underrated talent, can be skilled, and is well-rounded.”
The Fight Analyst – Timmy Cuamba
- “It seems as if Cuamba is finally in the right weight class after his win over Chang Ho Lee. His size, speed, and athleticism will make it difficult for the smaller Sopaj to get within range to land his heavy hooks and takedowns. Expect Cuamba to stick and move at range with his 5″ reach advantage en route to a decision victory.”
Austin Swaim – Benardo Sopaj
- “Timmy Cuamba has yet to beat a bonafide roster member, proving to be the benefactor of ChangHo Lee’s exhaustion at the Apex last November. Bernardo Sopaj dominated Ricky Turcios in his last fight with body and head strikes being tallied at 72-54 in his favor. I’d favor Turcios over Cuamba, so I will back the Swedish rep from Allstars to get his hand raised.”
Nikolay Veretennikov vs. Khaos Williams
HayJive – Khaos Williams
- “This should mostly play out on the feet, and I lean Williams there. He’s fought the better competition, and despite the recent losses, I trust his experience and explosiveness more in this matchup.”
Nolan – Nikolay Veretennikov
- “Khaos hasn’t looked good and relies on the big right hand. Nikolay has a good chin, and is also the more technical striker and grappler.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Nikolay Veretennikov
- “Interesting fight, will be close, not necessarily confident on this, though Williams is durable.”
The Fight Analyst – Khaos Williams
- “This is a highly volatile fight, but Khaos’ raw power will be the difference maker in this fight. Both fighters defend less than 50% of their strikes but only one of them truly has that one-punch KO power. Expect Veretennikov to look good early at range utilizing his jab and teep kicks, but once Khaos finds his range he will unleash heavy bombs putting him away.”
Austin Swaim – Nikolay Veretennikov
- “Khaos Williams is a one-dimensional striker with a below average striking accuracy (38%) and defense (40%). There’s not much of a selling point there when Nikolay Veretennikov hasn’t been KO’d at distance since 2014. I think the Ukrainian sticks and moves and pulls away the longer the fight goes.”
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