Southpaw Report: UFC 321
Hello and welcome to the ever-popular southpaw report, which can now be found here exclusively at Home of Fight!
Aside from the fact that most statistics you see on major broadcasts are drawn from a faulty well of information full of misinterpretation and human error, the statistical categories discussed generally lack proper sample sizes and contexts.
So, with that in mind, I try to provide unique, applicable and (hopefully) interesting stats in the form of my patent southpaw reports.
Here, I will do my best to provide you with everything from stats to written and visual analysis covering every fighter facing a dedicated southpaw on upcoming UFC cards.
UFC 321 offers a large slew of listed southpaws, so let’s get started!
Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane
Tom Aspinall, who faces a stance-switcher who primarily operates out of southpaw in Ciryl Gane at UFC 321, is officially 0-0 against dedicated, UFC-level southpaws.
That said, Aspinall did see a southpaw stance in competition back when he beat the stance-switching Marcin Tybura two years ago.
Tom Aspinall’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1981547283293626726
As seen in the clip attached above, Aspinall shows solid outside-foot awareness and the ability to shift and circle the opposite way whenever Tybura switched back to orthodox.
Aspinall also displayed an active lead hand with meaningful offerings and setups, as well as an ability to change up from his usual kick selections to the more appropriate choices for open-stance affairs (e.g., throwing head kicks and stabbing teeps to the body).
My prediction: Considering the smaller sample size of fight time that Aspinall brings to the table, there are a considerable number of questions that remain to be answered about the sitting champ.
Whether we’re talking about staying power in the stamina department or how he responds to someone who can offer him size and athleticism parity like Gane, we should all leave some room to be surprised this Saturday.
However, even in what little we’ve seen from Aspinall in the grand scheme of things, I remain very impressed. He’s eaten some hard shots like they were sandwiches, returning even harder punches in kind.
Although Aspinall could get it done on the feet, I actually suspect he takes things to the ground and finishes Gane via kimura.
Aleksandar Rakic vs. Azamat Murzakanov
Aleksandar Rakic, who faces southpaw Azamat Murzakanov, is 0-1 against dedicated, UFC-level southpaws (losing to Magomed Ankalaev).
Rakic also saw the southpaw stance a bit in his epic battle with Jiri Prochazka, who eventually switched and found success from that side after Rakic ate up his lead leg from orthodox early.
Aleksandar Rakic’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1981559205023928374
Rakic, like many orthodox fighters in MMA, tends to pare down his shot selection and leans more into kicks and counters when facing a southpaw.
The Serbian fighter will utilize his lead hand, but does so half-heartedly, primarily in a prodding nature to set up his kicks.
Rakic will mix things up from high to low, but his low kicks appear not to have the same commitment or sting as his outside leg kicks against orthodox opposition do.
My prediction: Between Rakic’s footage opposite southpaws to his recent run of arguable underperformances, I find it hard to back the Austrian-born Serb in this spot.
Aside from Murzakanov being a fighter I’ve been high on since his UFC debut, I can’t help but see the David Harbour doppleganger’s battering ram of a left hand having a ton of play considering Rakic’s common culprit from both stances.
The pick is Murzakanov by knockout in Round 2.
Mateusz Rebecki vs. Ludovit Klein
Mateusz Rebecki, who faces fellow southpaw Ludovit Klein at UFC 321, is officially 0-0 against UFC-level southpaws.
Klein is also officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level lefties, but does own a regional loss to southpaw Aiden Lee on the Cage Warriors circuit before his arrival in the octagon.
Ludovit Klein’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1981564266311483618
Although there’s not much to take away from the sample above, I did notice that Klein primarily kicks off his power side.
Despite leg kicks being readily available in this stance pairing, I suspect that Klein’s favored kicks may be limited due to the stance pairing.
Moreover, Klein could be forced to shelve a lot of his kicks, in general, given the looming takedown threats and pressure that Rebecki brings to the table.
That said, I suspect that Klein’s check hooks and counter crosses will be incredibly live against a pressuring madman like Rebecki.
My prediction: As I always say, be careful about any bold proclamations in southpaw vs. southpaw affairs considering the volatility that this stance pairing often provides.
Most southpaw predicate their entire games around orthodox opposition, as I can tell you that no one hates facing southpaws more than other southpaws.
Although both men are training in their hometown camps in Europe ahead of this contest, I know that Rebecki has been exposed to a ton of fellow UFC-level lefties at American Top Team (where he usually has his training camps).
Rebecki, for better or worse, will also throw his left hand abandon – and I suspect that serves him well here considering that left hooks and overhands are quietly known as the real southpaw killers.
A knockout either way wouldn’t shock me, but I have a suspicion that Rebecki gets back to his grappling and secures a submission by Round 3.
Quillan Salkilld vs. Nasrat Haqparast
Quillan Salkilld, who faces Nasrat Haqparast at UFC 321, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws, but did beat a southpaw on the Australian regional scene in what was just his second professional fight.
Quillan Salkilld’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1981562667627377016
Although it’s hard to take too much away from limited sample sizes this long ago, I actually like what I see from Salkilld in the clip above.
Outside of briefly getting dropped, Salkilld seemed fairly comfortable in the open stance and brought some good ideas to the table.
From sticking with his jabs to using straight punches to counter balance his kicks, Salkilld showed some foundational striking that gives me hope for his future development.
My Prediction: Although I came into this fight wanting to both pick and play Salkilld, the matchup and moneyline make it the rare “favorite or pass” spot in my book given that Haqparast is the more proven and experienced product.
I’ll be cheering for Salkilld to score the upset, but it’s likely a decision win for Nasrat Haqparast.
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