Southpaw Report: UFC 322
Hello and welcome to the ever-popular southpaw report, which can now be found here exclusively at Home of Fight!
Aside from the fact that most statistics you see on major broadcasts are drawn from a faulty well of information full of misinterpretation and human error, the statistical categories discussed generally lack proper sample sizes and contexts.
So, with that in mind, I try to provide unique, applicable and (hopefully) interesting stats in the form of my patent southpaw reports.
Here, I will do my best to provide you with everything from stats to written and visual analysis covering every fighter facing a dedicated southpaw on upcoming UFC cards.
UFC 322 offers a large slew of listed southpaws, so let’s get started!
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev
Jack Della Maddalena, who faces Islam Makhachev at UFC 322, is officially 1-0 against dedicated, UFC-level southpaws (beating Danny Roberts), but has seen the stance before when facing stance-switchers.
Jack Della Maddalena’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1989423866876498080?s=20
Della Maddalena is a fluid switch-hitter who usually prefers matching southpaw stances and working his lead hand. Della Maddalena has a deceptive ability to roll with punches that he’s not often credited for, but said styling of defense has left him in some precarious spots against the handful of southpaw kicking attacks he’s seen.
Islam Makhachev’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1989424980837503297?s=20
Makhachev certainly has the kicking game to test Della Maddalena’s defenses, but it’s the Dagestani’s boxing that has seen steady strides since his lone knockout loss to fellow southpaw Adriano Martins.
Now, it is not uncommon to see Makhachev utilizing an educated lead hand to both start and finish his combinations (even against the likes of Dustin Poirier).
My prediction: Although I might be giving Makhachev’s kicking potential in this fight more credit than most, there’s no denying that Della Maddalena will be a live dog throughout this fight – particularly in boxing range.
However, unless Della Maddalena can catch Makhachev out of position or reaching hard for a collar tie, then I suspect that the former lightweight champ forces his win conditions for a second-round submission win.
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Zhang Weili
Zhang Weili, who moves up to flyweight to face Valentina Shevchenko at UFC 322, is officially 2-0 against listed UFC-level southpaws (beating Tatiana Suarez and Amanda Lemos).
Despite listing herself as a southpaw, Lemos primarily fights from orthodox – hence the lack of samples for that fight. Against Suarez, however, we got a more honest look opposite an actual dedicated southpaw.
Zhang Weili’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1989426171222921394?s=20
Zhang uses her Sanda-style sidekick as a jab substitute, often looking for setups to kicks from the rear or lancing one-twos. Zhang’s distance issues appeared to take shape in the form of overthrown entries, which cost her the first round against Suarez via counter takedowns.
Suarez seemingly falling apart after tearing her knee open aside, Zhang continued to show her upgraded wrestling abilities by successfully scrambling and recovering positions down the stretch.
My prediction: Although I came into this fight wanting to both pick and bet Zhang, I ended up siding with Shevchenko.
Shevchenko may not be exciting, but her fundamentals, distance management and ability to hit counter takedowns will likely exploit some of the reads I made above.
The pick is Shevchenko by unanimous decision (with a head kick finish quietly being on the table).
Leon Edwards vs. Carlos Prates
Leon Edwards, who faces fellow southpaw Carlos Prates at UFC 322, is officially 5-1 against UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Bryan Barberena, Rafael dos Anjos, Nate Diaz, Colby Covington, Peter Sobotta; Losses: Claudio Silva).
Leon Edwards’ southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1989484416973037823?s=20
Prates is officially 1-0 opposite UFC-level lefties (beating Geoff Neal his last time out), but has seen the stance prior in kickboxing and muay Thai.
Carlos Prates’ southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1989485367192670654?s=20
And when Prates finally faced a solid sample size in Neal, my previous reads on the Brazilian’s trends shone through in a fight that’s hard to forget.
My prediction: It’s a potential mirror match considering both fighters’ proclivity to utilize elbows and strike from the clinch, but I suspect that Edwards’ consistent culpability to leg kicks and left hands against fellow southpaws could be the difference.
The pick is Prates by knockout in Round 2.
Beneil Dariush vs. Benoit Saint-Denis
Beneil Dariush, who faces fellow southpaw Benoit Saint-Denis, is officially 3-1-1 opposite UFC-level lefties (Wins: Drew Dober, Jim Miller, *Michael Johnson; Losses: Michael Chiesa; Draws: Evan Dunham).
Dariush shows solid leg kick and lead-hand interplay in closed-stance matchups, but left crosses and counters are his common culprit when facing a southpaw.
Saint-Denis, who officially stands 1-1 opposite fellow UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Kyle Prepolec; Losses: Dustin Poirier), throws some undeniably heavy artillery from his rear side.
However, Saint-Denis shows a bit of discomfort in closed-stance affairs and is still prone to zombie-walking into range with his head stuck on the centerline.
My Prediction: Although this looks like an early knockout win for Saint-Denis at first glance, I still find myself going the other way.
Dariush could certainly get iced out of the gate, but I believe that he’s the more skilled fighter everywhere should he survive the early scares.
I’m probably less confident in the underdog after he missed weight, but I’ll stick with my pick of Dariush via second-round stoppage.
Rodolfo Vieira vs. Bo Nickal
Rodolfo Vieira, who faces Bo Nickal, is officially 0-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws, losing to Chris Curtis.
Although Vieira ultimately got out-pointed by a superior striker with way more experience than him, the Brazilian comported himself quite well in retrospect.
Rodolfo Vieira’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1989537994051915820?s=20
Not only did Vieira utilize the jabs that so many orthodox fighters abandon in open-stance matchups, but the Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion also showed some solid leg kicks and bodywork to boot.
Prediction: Listen. It doesn’t appear to take much to outstrike Nickal and I don’t really rate Paul Craig or Renier de Ridder very highly in the striking department.
Now, that’s no disrespect to either fighter as I’m a big fan of Craig and I actually picked de Ridder to beat Nickal. That said, it didn’t take much for me to back Vieira in this spot.
The pick is Vieira by unanimous decision.
Gregory Rordigues vs. Roman Kopylov
Gregory Rodrigues, who faces Roman Kopylov, is officially 0-1 opposite dedicated, UFC-level southpaws (losing to Jordan Williams on Dana White’s Contender Series), but he also got knocked out by a stance-switching Brunno Ferreira when “The Hulk” was in a southpaw stance.
Gregory Rodrigues’ southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1989541450779169019?s=20
Prediction: I’m still gonna pick Rodrigues to win via submission due to his huge grappling edge on paper, but the analysis and video samples above are more than enough to keep me away from serious exposure to the money line of “Hobocop.”
Gerald Meerschaert vs. Kyle Daukaus
Gerald Meerschaert, who faces fellow southpaw Kyle Daukaus, is officially 2-5 against UFC-level lefties (Wins: Sam Alvey, Bryan Barberena; Losses: Sam Alvey, Michal Olekseijczuk, Reinier de Ridder, Krzysztof Jotko, *Eryk Anders).
Gerald Meerscharert’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1989543733847822758?s=20
Meerchaert has long had an underrated striking game, demonstrating an educated lead hand and pivots to boot.
The problem, however, is that he’s always been prone to getting caught early regardless of stance.
Daukaus, on the other hand, has also had his own issues with getting caught.
Kyle Daukaus’ southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1989549414931939411?s=20
Despite only standing at 1-1 opposite UFC-level lefties (Wins: Jamie Pickett; Losses: Eryk Anders), Daukaus has displayed solid ideas on the feet.
From an active jab to consistent leg kicks, Daukaus does a decent job of keeping his offensive output up.
Prediction: Although durability is an issue on each side, it’s hard to deny that Meerschaert has been the worse for wear (especially at this stage of his career).
I’m a huge Meerschaert fan and was initially leaning toward him here, but the pick is Daukaus to win a painfully clear decision.
This concludes the southpaw report for UFC 322. Be sure to check back here on UFC fight weeks this report and more.
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