UFC Vegas 103 | Southpaw
Southpaw Report: UFC Vegas 103
Hello and welcome to the ever-popular southpaw report, which can now be found here exclusively at Home of Fight!
Aside from the fact that most statistics you see on major broadcasts are drawn from a faulty well of information full of misinterpretation and human error, the statistical categories discussed generally lack proper sample sizes and contexts.
So, with that in mind, I try to provide unique, applicable and (hopefully) interesting stats in the form of my patent southpaw reports.
Here, I will do my best to provide you with everything from stats to written and visual analysis covering every fighter facing a dedicated southpaw on upcoming UFC cards.
UFC Vegas 103 offers a decent slate of listed southpaws, so let’s get started!
Marcel Dorff | X
Esteban Ribovics vs. Nasrat Haqparast
Summary: Esteban Ribovics, who faces Nasrat Haqparast at UFC Vegas 103, is officially 0-0 against dedicated, UFC-level southpaws.
Ribovics’ samples in open-stance affairs are small, but he’s shown the ability to fight southpaw with a swift lead hand (which could be key considering the success his teammate Jared Gordon had when he fought Haqparast last year).
Esteban Ribovic’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1895367158399672367
Dan Tom | X
As I always say, no one hates fighting southpaws more than other southpaws – and that’s shown perfectly in the clip above.
My prediction: Despite being high on Haqparast when he first stepped onto the UFC scene, I haven’t been the biggest fan of his development.
Haqparast did do a better job of going the body in his last fight, but – aside from the fact that he arguably should’ve lost the decision – it was Gordon’s bodywork that appeared to be the more effective of the two.
Couple that with Ribovics training over at Kill Cliff FC (a camp that already has experience preparing for Haqparast), and I can’t help but back one of the sport’s most exciting action fighters to pull away down the stretch for a decision win.
Marcel Dorff | X
Hyder Amil vs. William Gomis
Summary: Hyder Amil, who faces William Gomis at UFC Vegas 103, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws.
It’s been over three years since Amil has fought a southpaw, but he showed some solid instincts (especially when it comes to countering kicks and knees) despite his somewhat usual rough starts.
Hyder Amil’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1895383730312868059
Dan Tom | X
Amil, who can fight from either stance, seems to prefer the open-stance look no matter the stance pairing. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Amil match Gomis’ southpaw stance to close off kicking lanes and possibly increase his chances of catching kicks for counters.
My prediction: Despite initially leaning toward Gomis in this spot, I’m having a hard time backing a fighter who is currently riding one of the most fraudulent winning streaks in the organization (as Gomis made our Worst UFC Robberies of 2024 list).
More importantly, Amil – though slightly more untested – appears to be one of my favorite underdog archetypes: a durable wrestler who can fight from southpaw.
Couple that with the fact that Gomis – who prefers range fights he can control the pace of – will be stuck in the smaller octagon with an aggressive madman, and I’ll happily take a stab on Amil to eventually break the Frenchman via a third-round TKO.
Marcel Dorff | X
Sam Patterson vs. Danny Barlow
Summary: Sam Patterson, who faces southpaw Danny Barlow at UFC Vegas 103, is officially 0-0 against UFC-level southpaws, but does own a victory over Vinicius Cenci on Dana White’s Contender Series.
Patterson is also 2-0 against southpaws during his time spent on the regional scene at Brace CF.
Sam Patterson’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1895398539414618317
Dan Tom | X
Aside from the fact that Patterson appears to be one of the few MMA fighters who actually jabs with southpaws, the Englishman shows decent outside-foot awareness and solid bodywork. That said, his inherent upright stature makes his head a potent target, as left crosses are his common culprit.
My prediction: Well. Considering that I just said that left hands are Patterson’s common culprit, it’s kinda hard not to pick the guy nicknamed “LEFTHAND2GOD,” isn’t it?
But jokes aside, Barlow does have a left hand that needs to be respected for its power and precision. I don’t blame anyone for taking a small sprinkle on Patterson by submission, but the official pick here is Barlow by knockout in Round 1.
Marcel Dorff | X
Andrea Lee vs. J.J. Aldrich
Summary: Andrea Lee, who faces J.J. Aldrich at UFC Vegas 103, is officially 2-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Veronica Hardy, Antonina Shevchenko; Losses: Miranda Maverick).
Lee also lost a controversial split decision to Macy Barber where she got a decent amount done, but the majority of action in these fights took place on the floor.
Andrea Lee’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1895406016386519273
Dan Tom | X
“KGB” has a bad habit of throwing lackadaisical, naked kicks that can be countered, but Lee can also counter kicks herself, occasionally sitting down on hard shots to the body. That said, left-sided strikes to both the body and head are Lee’s common culprits.
My Prediction: Although Aldrich has arguably under-performed in a handful of fights over the years, her straight 1-2’s and left-sided strikes should prove problematic for Lee.
And despite Aldrich sometimes slowing and struggling during the back half of bouts, that should arguably be leveled out by the general poor body language and optics that Lee provides in her fights.
I’ll officially pick Aldrich to edge this one out by split decision.
This concludes the southpaw report for UFC Vegas 103. Be sure to check back here on UFC fight weeks this report and more.
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