UFC Paris Prelims Primer: Fight Predictions, Props, and Model Results for Hooker vs. Parnasse

If you’re new here, this is my prelim betting primer for UFC Paris. The main card breakdowns will be available in the PrizePicks Playbook on Saturday.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade: to bet on the UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 30 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’ll be right; I just want to get it right, and I’ll give you my best effort every week.

I invite you to join the fan club for Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed it or would rather read, I’ve got you covered.

From a betting perspective, let’s preview the prelims for UFC Paris: Hooker vs. Parnasse, taking place at the Accor Arena in Paris on Saturday. The fights start at 12:00 p.m. EST.

UFC Paris Predictions and Previews for the Prelims

 

Delphine Benouaich vs. Sofia Montenegro

Women’s Strawweight (115 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Benouaich	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Montenegro	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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I am not really sure what the rush was to get these ladies in UFC, but someone’s trajectory is going up after this one.

Delphine Benouaich is making her debut from this most recent season of The Ultimate Fighter. She lost a fun, competitive decision to Tina Black, an unknown in the 115-pound division herself. That marked the fourth overall loss by decision between her pro and amateur career, and the toughness against Black’s power was on display during the show.

We’ll see how the natural strawweight fares against Sofia Montenegro, who cuts to 115 pounds after a Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) bid at 125. Her loss to Jeisla Chaves hasn’t aged well when Chaves’ two results are a split decision over Yuneisy Dubin (0-2 UFC) and a quick knockout loss to Carli Judice.

The Argentinian had Chaves bloodied in seconds with great impact, but she especially struggled with cardio, getting doubled up in strikes in the final round. That’s a huge concern as she’s now cutting more weight, but she could also be in better shape to make it. It goes both ways.

Montenegro’s power is the true defining skill I saw in these two women. I don’t think Benouaich has a very good idea of what she does well and how to win fights. She had Black’s back and posed no real danger. She was standing in front of her at distance while pressuring and just taking pictures.

In a long sample, women’s strawweight’s finish rate is dreadfully low, but four straight women’s fights in UFC have ended by knockout. If the underdog’s power translates to her new weight class, a fifth wouldn’t be insane, and I also think she has the grappling upside.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: As an underdog, Montenegro just has more positive traits. She showed decent top control and plus power at flyweight, and both of those should improve at 115 if her cardio holds up. Benouaich pretty routinely loses to women who are in or around LFA or Invicta, and this is a step up from even that.

Matthieu Letho Duclos vs. Luis Felipe Dias

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Duclos	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Dias	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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The sense of urgency on DWCS is somewhat fake. Here’s a loser (via knockout) that still got a wonderful opportunity in his home country.

In fairness to Matthieu Letho Duclos, his 2024 bid against Marco Tulio was a violent banger, and the multi-time UFC winner needed a spinning back kick to the liver to dispatch him. The Brazilian has since been stopped by Christian Leroy Duncan and Roman Kopylov as fast, dangerous strikers. Duclos showed, to an extent, that he could hang from a durability perspective even if a -2.88 SSR was poor. Though, the power rating can’t be too high to not bother a fairly chinny Tulio.

Luis Felipe Dias is trying to prove he belongs in that same group. I still have a lot of questions about him through a DWCS spot and a debut win over Yi Sak Lee, a fellow debutant I noted as defensively unsound. Taking Lee out in the first round wasn’t a massive shocker despite “The Tank” moniker he carries.

As an underdog on DWCS, he was starting to wilt before a submission of Donovan Hedrick — relatively unproven at this level. I would say his jiu-jitsu is probably a plus, but there are plenty of mediocre takedown attempts and moments of concern at distance on regional tape.

Duclos did defend both takedowns from Tulio on the show, and that’s a massive turning point in this fight with Dias. I don’t even think the Brazilian’s supporters think he has a striking advantage here, and the Frenchman hasn’t been submitted since October 2019.

I’m not sure I have a prospect I feel “good” about in this matchup, but it’s telling that Dias, coming off a highlight, isn’t swinging to a favorite over an unproven commodity. The hype exceeds the talent.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Duclos’ durability, length, versatility as a striker, and takedown defense are crucial attributes in this fight when I don’t think Dias does much at a plus level besides pure jiu-jitsu. Duclos wasn’t an easy out, taking some mammoth shots from Tulio and still swinging.

Nora Cornolle vs. Klaudia Sygula

Women’s Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win by Finish	Win by (T)KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Cornolle	34.83%	17.17%	10.40%	6.77%	17.65%
Sygula	65.17%	15.10%	9.16%	5.94%	50.08%

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Part of the reason Alex Apodaca’s upset win on DWCS was so exciting is how badly women’s bantamweight needs new blood. An improving Klaudia Sygula might be that.

Her cross-training is exactly the same as Mateusz Rebecki’s between Coconut Creek and Poland. The 28-year-old American Top Team product has proved at an entry level that she’s an interesting, high-volume striker, landing 7.27 significant strikes per minute. Really, it’s just a question of how many strides she’s made when grappling since an uncompetitive loss to Melissa Mullins (2-3 UFC).

Nora Cornolle has never been known to test those, but the Frenchwoman did tap Hailey Cowan — as many can — in April 2025. That was her last win, though. She’s since allowed Karol Rosa to control her for 11:25 in a lopsided decision, and this current longest layoff of her UFC tenure was due to a broken collarbone suffered in a rematch with Joselyne Edwards.

At 36, Cornolle’s best days are behind her. She’s a good striker, boasting a +0.69 striking success rate (SSR), but already failed to bother Jacqueline Cavalcanti over three rounds in Saturday’s same venue. Some are higher on Cavalcanti than I am, but she’s never shown up on a spreadsheet like Sygula.

The optics of Cornolle actively shooting for takedowns are entirely foreign to me, and Sygula hasn’t lost a round at distance yet with a two-inch reach advantage over Nora. I totally get how the model arrived here, and I think Sygula would swing to a favorite in this matchup if it were at the Meta Apex. In France, I think folks are betting the flag.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Sygula’s +1.77 SSR against a lot of the same opponents is noteworthy. I don’t really know if Cornolle has the grappling chops to even legitimately threaten a bantamweight prospect that’s drilling that constantly at one of the best gyms in the sport.

Michael Aljarouj vs. Fabia Sintes

Flyweight (125 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Aljarouj	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Sintes	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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I wonder if Michael Aljarouj can deliver on his archetype and make for a type of threat I don’t legitimately remember at flyweight.

Ramazan Temirov is equal parts a cheat and a fraud, which should be exposed in his next extended fight. He’s also 5’4″ — as is Alessandro Costa. Aljarouj is listed 5’7″ at flyweight with crazy muscle mass and definition for a guy in this weight class, and it’s translated to one-shot-and-go power at Hexagone MMA in France.

Talking only about his physical attributes, though, diminishes his legitimate boxing skills and takedown defense. The way he throws short shots and uppercuts with so much power is crazy. He also fought Azat Maksum (1-3 UFC) and, in my opinion, was winning the fight with a knockdown until a Round 3 (T)KO, when he got caught. We’ll see if Fabia Sintes can test that durability again.

There’s a bit of a “striker vs. wrestler” dynamic to this one; Sintes has recorded a ground finish in five of his last seven fights, but we saw Aljarouj scramble successfully against Maksum. On the feet, the Spaniard is much more of an MMA striker, carrying his hands lower to bring power shots from unorthodox angles and get to his grappling.

I hate two dueling debutants, but I think oddsmakers have this one right. Aljarouj is a tank who’s shown an excellent sprawl, and Sintes is a wild man with iffy defense, and I’ve got no measure of his level of competition. That’s deeply concerning when, in his very last fight, he lost a round getting stalled out on bottom for over two minutes.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Aljarouj’s regional tape is what you want to see to lay like -170 in a debut. There’s a noticeable, discerning power backed by physical traits, and he looked really solid against Azat Maksum — a fighter better than his record suggests. Sintes is fun, but it’s total optimism and projection from his level of competition.

Nathaniel Wood vs. Pavel Andrusca

Featherweight (145 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Wood	Eligible
Andrusca	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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I hope Pavel Andrusca is ready. One of the most unheralded UFC fighters ever awaits.

When the Meta AI Rankings were released, Nathaniel Wood jumped up to No. 9 at featherweight, and outrage ensued. Why? Wood’s four-fight winning streak includes dominating Morgan Charriere, surviving a brutal Jose Miguel Delgado matchup, and defeating a fast, powerful Losene Keita. UFC is trying to match him up to lose, and he keeps getting the job done.

“The Prospect” is no prospect at 33, and that’s also why I’m a bit concerned that the 5′ 6″ fighter — always a bit small at featherweight — has been dropped in two of his last six fights. In typical Wood fashion, he earned a knockdown himself in those same fights, too, though.

A knockout certainly seems to be Andrusca’s path, but the general speed of the bantamweight seems live here. It’s just really tough to tell how the undefeated Moldovan will fare in UFC yet. He’d have, like, an elite DWCS profile with clean boxing, plus power, and an 87.5% pro finishing rate. But, the two guys he knocked out in UAE Warriors, both from China with padded records, seemed overwhelmed from the jump.

If I get a sense there’s “film bro” momentum behind Andrusca pulling this upset, I’ll dip my toe in at the right price. This is a top-10 featherweight in the world. Wood isn’t a knockout savant or elite jiu-jitsu player, so it’s probably his standard longer affair.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I’ve been a Wood supporter for a long, long time. He should change his nickname to “The Professional”. Other than being a tiny bit chinny, his striking (54%) and takedown (72%) defense are the foundation for denying an upset.

Oumar Sy vs. Modestas Bukauskas

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win by Finish	Win by (T)KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Sy	56.17%	33.48%	20.41%	13.06%	22.69%
Bukauskas	43.83%	16.20%	8.79%	7.42%	27.63%

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This model result broke me, but I saw it coming.

There’s just nothing about Oumar Sy‘s resume that justifies laying chalk against any multi-time winner at 205 pounds. Sy’s reputation as a versatile, undefeated prospect from France was quickly “verified” by finishes of Tuco Tokkos and Brendson Ribeiro. But, as the competition rose, Alonzo Menifield outpointed him, which might be worse than a (T)KO. Then, the nail in the coffin was the quickest, saddest tap to a well-known flake and gatekeeper, Ion Cutelaba.

I don’t really trust anything about him. His volume is extremely and painfully low at distance. He’s yet to drop an opponent, and he got outgrappled by a notorious submission liability who quit in his very next fight. Sy is closer to being a roster cut than to contending for a top-15 spot.

Fortunately for him, he’s got Modestas Bukauskas in Paris, presenting a winnable opportunity. Similarly, Bukauskas just doesn’t put a lot out there at distance, posting 3.14 significant strikes landed per minute. Sy (3.41) is above that amidst his problems. “The Baltic Gladiator” had a binge of finishes in his return to UFC, but the names involved — Marcin Prachnio, Paul Craig, and Rafael Cerqueira — are all off the roster.

Notably for this fight, Bukauskas has never been tapped in 13 UFC appearances, and his takedown defense (82%) is analytically elite. That denies Sy a path to victory he’s desperately needed historically, but the underdog has also been knocked down five times in UFC. That includes one against Nikita Krylov, who’s looked like a slow punching bag against everyone else of late, in January.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Unfortunately for us, I think the model nailed this one. A shorter fight could mean that Bukauskas’ chin failed again against a guy with a six-inch reach edge, but a longer, more unappealing fight probably favors Bukauskas and his comfort in those.

Mario Pinto vs. Ryan Spann

Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win by Finish	Win by (T)KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Pinto	70.67%	48.70%	37.17%	11.53%	21.97%
Spann	29.33%	16.40%	7.82%	8.57%	12.94%

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I’m guessing Mario Pinto is going to be a model favorite. We’ll see if he can keep cashing.

The Portuguese fighter, aside from a drop surrendered to Austen Lane, hasn’t really faced much adversity in four UFC-affiliated fights. It was one-way traffic on the mat against Jhonata Diniz, but fans were hoping for more in an ugly, low-volume decision against Felipe Franco. You still can’t knock an elite striking accuracy (69%) and defense (58%) with obvious grappling upside for the division.

It’s a battle of precision versus power against Ryan Spann. There’s not really any debate about who the better, more reliable fighter is. It’s just a question if the American can head to Paris and find a seminal moment.

Spann’s 2.27 KD% has produced many of those, and he also often jumps on a nasty guillotine, posting 1.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes. It’s just been horribly problematic for him when those don’t win the fight, and his shape has badly declined at heavyweight to the point where he’s recently come in around the 265-pound limit.

Pinto’s chin issue against Lane opens the path to an upset, and the squeeze on the gilly is always live. Pinto’s frame isn’t built to carry a ton of power, either. But, the cardio discrepancy here is so massive, and that wasn’t the case against the decent 205er, Franco, in his last fight. The Brazilian had staying power. Spann, as shown in Round 2 collapses against Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Bogdan Guskov, does not.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I do understand stabs at Spann as “the hare”. Pinto was a bit chinny, and Spann is always a tough first five minutes. I just think the English-trained prospect is so skilled to survive a storm as “the tortoise” and make a massive statement.

Morgan Charriere vs. Felipe Lima

Featherweight (145 pounds) – Featured Prelim

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win By Finish	Win by (T)KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Charriere	39.09%	19.99%	16.01%	3.97%	19.10%
Lima	60.91%	24.53%	9.52%	15.01%	36.39%

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I am constantly perplexed by weight shifts that might come down to getting paid rather than advancing a career. Go figure on this one for Felipe Lima.

Lima was dominated — start to finish — in the grappling by Payton Talbott, who does look like a shining star at bantamweight. I just don’t know how the conclusion is to go fight larger guys. I still contend “film bros” got a little lucky in Lima’s debut against Muhammad Naimov when low-volume, unimpressive decisions with Talbott and Miles Johns followed that result. He lands just 2.86 significant strikes per minute overall in a growing sample — even with elite striking D (61%).

Morgan Charriere‘s performance on Saturday should swing his UFC future. “The Last Pirate” is a durable, scrappy warrior who entered the UFC with nine losses, but all but one came via decision against the likes of Paul Hughes, Salahdine Parnasse, William Gomis, and Jordan Vucenic (a 155er) before even getting here. Most guys don’t see a schedule that tough in UFC.

However, the Frenchman has to bounce back from a Melquizael Costa head kick in December. I think he just got caught — as others have by the creative Brazilian — but signs of attrition could be mounting at 30 if Lima were to stop him in this position.

I just can’t see that. The model respects Lima’s submission volume (0.7 attempts per 15), but converting against a larger fighter who has survived that aforementioned murderer’s row just seems unlikely. But, the one thing my model notably doesn’t adjust for is weight class. Some guys thrive moving up. I just can’t see a 5’6″ Lima, who just got mogged in his last fight at 135, fitting that category.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Film guys love Lima, but it’s got to be Charriere or pass in this spot, and I totally understand a pass. It’s not as if a momentary mistake or two hasn’t cost him a decision before. But, I think the underdog’s power is a live threat fighting at home, and he’s got the size advantage to hang in grappling situations.