UFC Macau Prelims Primer: Fight Predictions, Props, and Model Results for Song vs. Figueiredo

If you’re new here, this is my prelim betting primer for UFC Macau. The main card breakdowns will be available in the PrizePicks Playbook on Saturday.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’ll be right; I just want to get it right, and I’ll give you my best effort every week.

I invite you to join the fan club for Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed it or would rather read, I’ve got you covered.

From a betting perspective, let’s preview the prelims for UFC Macau: Song vs. Figueiredo, taking place at the Galaxy Arena in Cotai, Macau, China on Saturday. The fights start at 4:00 a.m. EST.

UFC Macau: Song vs. Figueiredo Prelim Betting Picks and Props

 

Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jacqueline Amorim

Women’s Strawweight (115 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win By Finish	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Lookboonmee	52.88%	5.59%	0.53%	5.06%	47.29%
Amorim	47.12%	30.69%	2.59%	28.10%	16.43%

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If there were a UFC atomweight division, I’ve long said Loma Loonkboonme might surprise many to be a championship contender in it.

The Thai fighter has a wide range of skills but is relatively small. That’s how you have a sparkling +1.15 striking success rate (SSR), 7-3 promotional record, and have never been stopped in the UFC — yet aren’t really seen as a ranked contender. I’d genuinely put her on a shortlist of the most underrated overall fighters in UFC.

However, the margins are thin. Lookboonme has two tighter-than-hoped decisions with Istela Nunes and Bruna Brasil in her last three fights. Luckily, this fight with Jacqueline Amorim should produce a pretty clear winner.

Amorim’s UFC hype was palpable, but she’s been “boom or bust” in six UFC appearances. She’s secured four ground finishes in each of her wins but petered out to lopsided decision losses in extended fights where she faced adversity. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist’s cardio is a massive problem if she’s not quickly securing dominant positions on the mat.

Lookboonme is relatively harmless and has surrendered six career submission attempts, so it’s not impossible to see her getting caught in this spot. However, she just survived 15 minutes with the ultra-physical Alexa Thainara, which is a perfect bootcamp of sorts to ace this Amorim matchup.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I’ve got a horrible feeling about this fight when Lookboonmee seems to be a popular ‘dog, but Amorim will have to show considerable improvement in skill and cardio to win an extended fight. I chickened out of a full play on her decision when the Brazilian’s cardio has been so bad.

Zhu Kangjie vs. Rodrigo Vera

Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Kangjie	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Vera	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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At risk of getting lost in Wikicapping, I tossed aside 30-plus minutes of my Memorial Day to watch Zhu Kangjie‘s last two fights. I’m flatly stunned he’s here.

Kanjie gave up a total of 20 takedowns and, in my opinion, certainly lost his semifinal on Road to UFC (RTU) to Shin Haraguchi via monstrous takedown numbers and control in the final two rounds of their fight. The winning battle, opposite Xie Bin, was much more of a toss-up. Overall, the City Kickboxing entrant is a low-volume counter striker (6.02 significant strike attempts per 15 minutes) with suspect takedown defense (51%).

I’m not sure the latter will matter in this fight with Rodrigo Vera, but we saw a Peruvian — Juan Diaz — surprise us with grappling chops two weeks ago at the Apex. Diaz, one of UFC’s hottest prospects, has actually lost to Vera on the regional scene as part of an incredibly stiff Latin American schedule that has included alums of Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) like Rickson Zenidim and Eduardo Torres.

Vera hasn’t been stopped in 23 pro fights, has faced the toughest competition of these two, and would likely have any sort of grappling upside. Kangjie’s initial matchup with Ramon Tavares was favorable given the American’s chin issues, but this last-minute one might spoil the fun for the home crowd.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I really like Vera’s tape, and Kangjie could easily be 0-2 against non-UFC-level competition. I’m not sure if this line reflects one of the few Chinese fighters who’s actually at a playable number or what, but I played Vera’s moneyline (-110), ITD (+340), and submission (+850) props.

Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong

Women’s Strawweight (115 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Hill	Eligible
Xiong	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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If you’re drawing Angela Hill in your UFC debut, you are a bad MFer. Former ONE Championship strawweight queen Jingnan Xiong is indeed that.

We saw Reiner de Ridder rise into the rankings as a similarly dominant belt-holder from the global tour, so I don’t think it’s crazy if “The Panda” ends up following that same path. It pops immediately that Xiong is huge for the weight class, really tries to inflict fight-ending damage with her shots, and showcases real Muay Thai skill with tangible, practical grappling escapes. A Round 5 exhaustion-related loss by submission to Angela Lee is her only pro loss since June 2015. A three-rounder alleviates those concerns.

“Overkill” Hill has turned tables and defied odds to compete in the top 10 into her 40s, but the American undoubtedly is slowing down. She’s lost 4 of her last 7 bouts, and 10 of her last 11 fights have been razor-close decisions. There’s almost no power, per a 0.13% knockdown rate (KD%), and she’s oddly pivoted to this clinch-heavy style that bit her against bigger, stronger, younger women like Fatima Kline and Iasmin Lucindo.

At the end of the day, Hill lives in split results, and Xiong, 38, has gone to the cards in five of her last six. Though the Chinese fighter has the finishing upside, I struggle to get to a -200 result — even though I expect her to make good on these odds to win. Hill is probably a public ‘dog, and we know where that ends.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: The more I thought about this fight, a small bet on violence is sick. These are two old fighters with attrition issues, and Hill has submission upside in addition to Xiong’s power. I just think the latter isn’t getting enough credit, so I played (T)KO (+500) for the debutant.

Rei Tsuruya vs. Luis Gurule

Flyweight (125 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win By Finish	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Tsuruya	57.60%	25.30%	5.76%	19.54%	32.30%
Gurule	42.40%	5.08%	1.07%	4.01%	37.33%

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This seems like an unhinged decision for Luis Gurule — but it might just work out.

Gurule was staring at the axe before a pick ’em fight with Daniel Barez that he dominated at UFC Vegas 117 less than two weeks ago. He’s feeling confident and in rhythm to step in for Jesus Aguilar on short notice against Rei Tsuruya despite taking 113 significant strikes from Barez. It was not a cakewalk.

The Factory X Muay Thai product just seems to have a lot of confidence in his grappling defense. In one fight, Gurule swung his SSR (+0.33) positive while Tsuruya (+0.22) has been a no-show at distance despite five UFC-affiliated appearances. I just don’t count much of anything from Tsuruya’s statistical profile since the vast majority of it came on RTU.

I ended up adoring the model result here. If Tsuruya covers a lofty betting number, a submission is on the table given his high rate of attempts (1.9 per 15 minutes), but the price is too short. However, if this fight hits the cards, Gurule is the one scoring as a striker, and he has yet to be controlled for more than 37.5% of a fight.

Gurule’s result against Nick Piccinnini, the former four-time Big 12 gold medalist in freestyle wrestling, on DWCS has to give him a ton of confidence heading into Japan’s version of a pestering, takedown-spamming archetype.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Apologies to my guy Matty, who I think has chased another overpriced sub. Gurule’s gym and career point to capable submission defense, so I played this fight to go the distance (-150) at the model’s recommendation. I do think Tsuruya can win the close fight, so I avoided a stab at the ‘dog.

Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon

Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Aoriqileng	Eligible
Haddon	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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Watch out for Australia’s Cody Haddon.

Haddon trains with Quillan Salkilld in Perth, Western Australia and had to be frustrated that he missed the card there earlier this month after a delayed timeline due to a fractured foot. That has temporarily paused an outstanding start to a career that featured a quick club-and-sub on DWCS followed by a +84 striking differential — and a mauling — over Dan Argueta (1-3 UFC). A step-up in competition to Aoriqileng is overdue.

“The Mongolian Murderer” took advantage of Cody Gibson’s cracked chin last fall in Vancouver, which finally gave him a win of substance in the division. His previous three wins were over opponents a combined 2-9 with the promotion.

On paper, I don’t see a path to victory for Aoriqileng on a per-minute basis. Haddon’s striking volume (9.20 significant strikes landed per minute) has been ridiculous, and he’s added 6.70 takedown attempts per 15 minutes if the Chinese fighter hasn’t shored up a 58% takedown D in this camp. It’ll come down to power, but the Aussie hasn’t been stopped in nine pro fights.

Haddon’s sparkling peripherals are a spitting image of Salkilld’s from the same gym. This feels like a discount relative to the rocketship his lightweight teammate is currently riding.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: My biggest prop bet of the year is on this terrible card. Haddon’s -3.5 point spread isn’t cheap (-175), but it’s a perfect encapsulation of how I expect this fight to play out. This will either be a beating in a decision, or Haddon finds the “quit” button at some point.

Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique de Souza

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Meng	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Henrique de Souza	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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Both of these gentlemen lost their path into the UFC, so it’s interesting that they both got the call without a win or a second opportunity.

Ding Meng‘s home city of Jiangsu, about 4 hours from Macau, probably has a lot to do with that, given this card needed to balloon to 13 fights. In Meng’s defense, his loss to Rami Hamed on DWCS in 2024 was pretty frustrating for him and fans alike; Hamed skirted the outside and avoided much conflict at all when Meng had the center, landed 3 takedowns, and scored 3:11 in control time. We’ve seen fighters lose on DWCS in a bad or boring matchup and then go on to succeed in the general population.

This feels like a must-win to do so, though. Brazil’s Jose Henrique de Souza was last seen in a UFC-affiliated setting in 2024, when he was dominated by Yusaku Kinoshita (0-2 in the UFC). Kinoshita’s dismal tenure doesn’t inspire much hope, but Souza, 24, is in an improvement window that I discuss with many fighters, and he’s at a great gym to make it happen, training at Nova Uniao with Andre Pederneiras and Jose Aldo.

Meng’s limited skill set has less room to grow as he’s out of his prime, which is why I think this betting line has trended away from blindly backing the Chinese flag toward the Brazilian as further research is uncovered. I still have an unshakeable feeling that this is a low-level fight that I want nothing to do with.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Ding Meng is a known quantity, and I didn’t enjoy his DWCS fight. Souza has likely improved a great deal from his failed DWCS bid, and he’s the larger fighter. It’s odd that, despite an 85.7% knockout rate at middleweight, Souza’s (T)KO prop (+420) is so much longer than Meng’s (+165) in a low-level fight.

Yi Sak Lee vs. Luis Felipe Dias

Middleweight (185 pounds) – Featured Prelim

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Lee	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Dias	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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This should be a fun one at middleweight. I wouldn’t blink.

Luis Felipe Dias has most recently been in the spotlight with an appearance on the last season of DWCS. Dias flipped the script on a back-and-forth fight with Donovan Hedrick, where he began to fade, to a statement win with a single takedown. He was able to secure the back and find the choke. Certainly, the Brazilian’s gas tank probably won’t be very elite, carrying an enormous amount of muscle for the weight class, but the upside is overpowering foes as he did through that promotional audition.

Dias will provide big hooks, sizeable power, and is a dominant force with traditional takedowns and mat positions. There’s a bit of a “tortoise and the hare” dynamic here against Yi Sak Lee from South Korea.

Lee trains with Junyong Park, Da Woon Jung, and others at Korean Top Team, and I’m curious to see how well the nickname “The Tank” sticks at this level. Regional footage of Lee checks out as a training partner of Iron Turtle with clever judo throws, smooth transitions between positions, and a boxing style based on forward pressure and cage control.

After backing Dias on DWCS, I’m concerned. He makes sense as the favorite because of the physical advantages he carries early, but it felt like he escaped a fight with Hedrick — a fighter with horrific regional competition before the show — that was quickly going south. If Yi Sak Lee is around in later rounds, I think he’s the better-conditioned fighter with a more sustainable style of winning minutes, and I trust his gym more. Dias’ Paraná Vale Tudo has only put one other fighter (Maria Oliveira) into UFC, and it did not go well.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Violence made the “safe” parlay on the show this week. Dias is a powerhouse, and Yi Sak Lee is an opportunistic finisher should he fatigue. Concerns about Dias’ gym and cardio led me to sprinkle on the Korean fighter in Round 2 (+950) and Round 3 (+1500).