UFC 328 DFS Projections: Significant Strikes and Takedown Props for Chimaev vs. Strickland

Hello, Home of Fight fans. I’m trying something new.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Recently, I’ve added significant strike and takedown projections for Underdog and PrizePicks, as they’ve taken off in the MMA community. These are still in beta, but it’s something you can get for any fantasy sport in the world except UFC. I’m trying to change that.

As a reminder, my prelims betting primer is here on Home of Fight’s website on Fridays. My UFC main card breakdowns will be at PrizePicks Playbook on Saturdays. Matty and I’s YouTube show is also a fun time with a little of both.

From a DFS perspective, here are my projections of median significant strikes and takedowns for model-eligible fighters at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, taking place at the Prudential Center in New York, New Jersey on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland Significant Strike Projections

NOTE: Only fights with two model-eligible fighters are included. You wouldn’t want the garbage data from smaller samples anyway.

Fighter	Median Sig Strike Proj
Joshua Van	95.48
Sean Strickland	69.27
Waldo Cortes Acosta	58.86
King Green	56.21
Marco Tulio	48.73
Jared Gordon	45.55
Alexander Volkov	44.69
Khamzat Chimaev	44.48
Roman Kopylov	36.71
Mateusz Rebecki	35.89
Joaquin Buckley	35.17
Sean Brady	33.64
Tatsuro Taira	31.37
Clayton Carpenter	30.66
Jeremy Stephens	30.04
Jose Ochoa	29.25
William Gomis	27.07
Jim Miller	24.57
Grant Dawson	22.52
Pat Sabatini	13.77

Significant Strikes Prop to Target in DFS

Grant Dawson Under 32.5 Significant Strikes

I suppose the argument for this line comes from whether or not you believe Grant Dawson is capable of a back-and-forth affair with standup involved at this point.

“KGD” has been blinked at striking distance by both King Green and Manuel Torres since the start of 2023, but three dominant, lopsided wins outside of the rankings also saw him cruise past this mark despite spending over 65% of the fight with control time in each of his five wins during this same period.

Placing a “median” on Dawson’s output seems difficult, right? It’s either basically zero, or he’s eclipsed 30 significant strikes in every other fight.

Well, I actually see it differently. He’s needed an immense amount of control that I don’t believe Mateusz Rebecki, a credentialed black belt, will be able to afford him. Rebecki has never been controlled for over 180 seconds, and that includes a fight with Myktybek Orolbai — who is now terrorizing 170 pounds.

Moreover, Rebecki’s 0.87% knockdown rate (KD%) is more than capable of turning off Dawson’s lights just as Green and Torres did. Plus, the Polish fighter tends to sell out for the finish, and if he gasses into a choke, that’s also a case for an under.

This median projection implies a 97.4% chance of an under at UFC 328. Anecdotally, I agree that I believe Dawson can survive extended enough periods at a distance to cash this over when the ground game won’t be nearly as lopsided as his previous matchups.

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland Takedown Projections

NOTE: Only fights with two model-eligible fighters are included. You wouldn’t want the garbage data from smaller samples anyway.

Fighter	Median Takedown Proj
Khamzat Chimaev	3.57
Grant Dawson	3.16
Pat Sabatini	2.63
Mateusz Rebecki	2.20
Tatsuro Taira	2.00
Sean Brady	1.96
Jared Gordon	1.69
Clayton Carpenter	1.31
Roman Kopylov	1.24
Jim Miller	0.99
King Green	0.93
William Gomis	0.78
Joshua Van	0.74
Joaquin Buckley	0.72
Jeremy Stephens	0.71
Marco Tulio	0.67
Sean Strickland	0.40
Jose Ochoa	0.34
Alexander Volkov	0.29
Waldo Cortes Acosta	0.25

Takedown Prop to Target in DFS

Sean Brady Under 2.5 Takedowns

This seems crazy, right? Kamaru Usman’s bad knees just landed four takedowns on Joaquin Buckley.

But that was a 25-minute fight, which speaks to how good Buckley’s takedown defense (72%) is at 170 pounds overall. He’s just immensely strong and athletic for the weight class. That’s one obstacle to Sean Brady securing takedowns in this fight despite a great percentage of landing them (53%) overall.

I also think Brady’s standup is badly underrated just because he got slimed early by Michael Morales — a middleweight if we’re being honest. Brady’s shown immense boxing improvement by outlanding Leon Edwards (+8) and Gilbert Burns (+86) in just distance strike differential. Yes, the threat of the takedown carries that skill set for him, but that’s also not changing against a guy whose momentum was halted by takedowns.

Overall, Buckley’s power is significant (1.25 KD%), and he seems to be in a knockout-or-bust position when Brady actually lands more significant strikes per minute (3.96) and obviously has the grappling upside. Tying the underdog’s win condition to this prop’s under doesn’t hurt, either.

My model projects that this fight ends early 54.2% of the time. It believes Brady closes the show 32.7% of the time. Buckley has never been submitted as a pro…but Leon Edwards hadn’t been, either. There are levels to this game, and if Brady establishes that in the first two rounds, this over — which feels free in principle if you like Brady to win — might be a frustrating lineup-buster.

This median projection (1.96) would imply -248 odds on two or fewer takedowns for the Philly native.