UFC 330 Prelims Primer: Fight Predictions, Props, and Model Results for Makhachev vs. Machado Garry

If you’re new here, this is my prelim betting primer for UFC 330. The main card breakdowns will be available in the PrizePicks Playbook on Saturday.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 30 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’ll be right; I just want to get it right, and I’ll give you my best effort every week.

I invite you to join the fan club for Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed it or would rather read, I’ve got you covered.

From a betting perspective, let’s preview the prelims for UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, taking place at the Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.

UFC 330 Prelim Betting Picks and Props

 

Jeremiah Wells vs. Myktybek Orolbai

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win By Finish	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Wells	36.83%	16.37%	9.40%	6.96%	20.46%
Orolbai	63.17%	39.93%	15.49%	24.44%	23.24%

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Marquez MMA is easily the most notable UFC gym from this area, and its lone combatant on Saturday is Jeremiah Wells in this spot? Seriously?

Well, the 39-year-old will hopefully fight like hell here. I was surprised to learn just how successful his 5-2 UFC tenure has been when combining a +1.07 striking success rate (SSR) with 1.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Getting caught by Carlston Harris’ anaconda late in Round 3 plus losing a split to Max Griffin, Wells is an eyelash from going 7-for-7 in the octagon…yet is the largest underdog on the card to Myktybek Orolbai.

That alone probably justifies this line being too wide, but many aren’t looking to bet against the Kyrgyzstan native these days. Under the command of Team Alpha Male, Orolbai has decimated most of his UFC opposition, including multi-time promotional winners like Chris Curtis, Jack Hermansson, Tofiq Musayev, Elves Brenner, and Uros Medic in his debut. That’s three different historical weight classes, up to 185 pounds, represented.

Orolbai’s 8.77 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with elite accuracy (59%) are pretty suffocating, and Wells’ 50% takedown defense failed him in his last fight with Themba Gorimbo. He allowed 6 of 9 attempts to succeed but stole rounds with deep submission attempts and reversals.

I still think Orolbai has to answer what happened in a gruesome loss to Mateusz Rebecki, but his tour on the senior circuit continues at UFC 330. Hermansson, Curtis, and now Wells are all at least 37 years old on fight day. They just don’t have the horses to compete with an ascending, powerful force like him.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I ended up playing Orolbai R2 (+380) and R3 (+800) props with submission sprinkles. Unlike Chris Curtis, a former middleweight, Wells is a smaller guy who leverages muscle mass, and as it starts to fade, I think the dominant Kyrgyz fighter can find an opening.

Neil Magny vs. Ramiz Brahimaj

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win By Finish	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Magny	49.34%	16.45%	12.13%	4.32%	32.90%
Brahimaj	50.66%	43.11%	13.20%	29.91%	7.54%

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Pick ’em fight on Sunday. Pick ’em result. We love to see it.

Now, Ramiz Brahimaj has floated a little out of that territory during fight week because, as I’ve said before, some bettors would rather delete their apps than bet the old guy. It’s easy to understand the appeal, though. The Chicago-trained fighter with Belal Muhammad and Ignacio Bahamondes had won three in a row before a close decision loss to Puna Soriano. Bettors also love guys who win one way, and Brahimaj’s 92.3% submission rate makes him easy to bet.

It definitely feels like he’s “submission-or-bust” here against Neil Magny, though. Magny has been tapped 6 times in a 37-fight UFC tenure, but the names include Demian Maia, Gilbert Burns, Shavkat Rakhmonov, and — most recently — Yaroslav Amosov. Brahimaj adding his name to that list would be a little crazy.

Otherwise, “The Haitian Sensation” continues to be a twilight zone for betting, pulling huge upsets over the likes of Jake Matthews and Mike Malott. His 80″ reach is still troublesome at distance, and he’s a cardio-based fighter that mixes it up (5.56 takedown attempts per 15 minutes) over a larger sample.

This fight actually seems pretty easy to envision. The more violent it is with seminal moments, the more likely Brahimaj is to win. The more boring it is, the more likely it is that Magny gets his hand raised. Obsession with fading the old guy seems to have thrown that dynamic out of whack in betting markets.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I knew this line would move to make Magny the play by Saturday, but why pay for Round 1 equity in his moneyline? Magny is -200 in “decision only” markets. Magny & Over 1.5 (+190) and his decision props (+320) are friendly, too. I ended up with a lot of Neil exposure without a ton truly staked.

Rafael Tobias vs. Lucas Fernando

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Tobias	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Fernando	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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This fight wouldn’t be out of place on an Apex prelims card. I’m guessing the projected violence is why Rafael Tobias and Lucas Fernando will square off in a battle of Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) grads.

As a living, breathing reminder that all DWCS spots aren’t equal, Tobias easily submitted a converted heavyweight, Yair de Oliveira, on the show, but he looked extra fraudulent in his official debut against Diyar Nurgozhay. The Brazilian’s grappling didn’t translate at all, landing just 2 of 8 takedowns, and he was destroyed to currently hold poor striking accuracy (35%) and defense (36%) entering this fight with Fernando.

Conversely, the favorite fought Cesar Almeida on the show in a battle of kickboxers. Early wrestling success quickly faded to the point where he got 10-8’d in Round 2 but survived to the final bell. Since that losing bid, he’s won and defended LFA’s light heavyweight title, and the 28-year-old is far closer to his prime now.

Even in a fatigued Round 3, Fernando went bar-for-bar with one of middleweight’s best kickboxers. Tobias is a bit more of a brawler, using raw strength and power to get the job done. I was surprised to see Fernando such a heavy favorite, but he’s the better wrestler and a significantly more technical kickboxer. I understand the thought that, if Almeida couldn’t find the button, how will the sloppy Brazilian that we saw flunk out of his debut do so?

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Oddsmakers suggest this is a longer fight, but Tobias has only found success with extreme first-round aggression. I think he walks onto a snipe of a sharp counter from Fernando earlier rather than later. Fernando’s R1/R2 prop (+135) was the move.

Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win By Finish	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Luque	57.40%	37.67%	24.29%	13.37%	19.73%
Gore	42.60%	28.51%	6.65%	21.86%	14.09%

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I really wanted to be the Tresean Gore guy, but “film bros” are convinced Vicente Luque is toast because he, mentally, found the door against ranked fighters. This line is just insane, stepping back in competition from even his previous 2026 appearance.

Kelvin Gastelum soiled parlays in Miami, and while I thought Luque’s grappling upside gave him a path to victory against him, I was not expecting him to drop the iron-chinned American first. It was a resounding show of strength in the Brazilian’s power at middleweight opposite someone who once challenged for the division’s interim title.

Overall, I am still deathly scared of Luque’s attrition in tougher matchups. Gore just isn’t one.

Gore’s grit and determination to grind out a fraudulent Azamat Bekoev, the only beatable “oev” in UFC, was impressive, but he was dropped early in that fight, taken down twice, and likely down two rounds. I’m not doubting Gore’s athleticism or durability, but you can’t ignore the in-fight striking efforts against Rodolfo Vieira (-48 striking differential), Marco Tulio (-110), and Bryan Battle (-65) and think that the former ranked welterweight, Luque (-0.44 SSR), won’t be able to find some success. Those three will all be off the UFC roster by the end of 2026.

Luque getting caught in Kevin Holland’s anaconda choke makes this matchup a little perilous, given that Gore’s UFC wins have come exclusively via front choke. Both guys are live for that meme; Luque has nabbed 7 front chokes himself.

The Brazilian’s takedown D (59%) isn’t amazing, but I expect that gameplan would fatigue Gore and make the wide gap in distance efficiency even worse. I do believe the American is taking his career more seriously, but the price is not right to lay chalk with him.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: The model likes Gore’s submission prop, but part of Gore’s appeal is that Luque doesn’t respond well to punches. Are we really favoring another meme? I can’t play it. Instead, I threw this fight not to go the distance in my safe parlay and am respecting the model’s wishes on Luque by (T)KO at +500 after nabbing his moneyline at +120 on Tuesday.

Donte Johnson vs. Eric McConico

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Johnson	Ineligible – Octagon Time
McConico	Eligible

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At his best, Cody Brundage can be a threat in a weakened 185-pound division. I don’t hold it against Donte Johnson for not finding the finish — especially not here when Eric McConico needed a robbery against the same guy.

“Lockjaw” won his DWCS fight as a heavyweight and now, at 27, begins a long, arduous road to add middleweight skills to that impressive size and power. Overall, defense is where I turn first with prospects, and Johnson’s striking (61%) and takedown (75%) D have made the grade through three official appearances. That’s against “offense-first” guys like Brundage and Sedriques Dumas, too.

Though McConico has made a habit of upsets over Brundage and Rodolfo Vieira late, he’s still been dropped four times in four fights, including by the latter as a Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist. Oof. When these guys are fresh, I don’t trust the MMA Lab fighter’s chin. He’s been KO’d in all four pro losses.

I think most will say McConico is the more skilled guy here. I’m not sure. He’s got a -0.13 SSR through four fights when just one opponent had a positive SSR of their own. Johnson (+1.11 SSR) has performed much better against a slightly lighter level of competition.

Though, in theory, the veteran could compete well deep into the fight, he’s shown no power or submission skills of his own. Meanwhile, Johnson’s evolution at Xtreme Couture is already underway. I think McConico is the “fake sharp” underdog of the week.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: My sticky note on my desk this week said, “Donte Johnson early knockout…no matter what.“ McConico’s fleeting chin hasn’t been stopped in the first round yet, and the public is bailing on Johnson for not getting a game Brundage out of there.

Charles Johnson vs. Eduardo Chapolin

Catchweight (130 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Johnson	Eligible
Chapolin	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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Unfortunately, we lost a fun one with Jose Ochoa pulling out against Charles Johnson. It feels like they had Eduardo Chapolin on ice for this moment, though.

Chapolin, who has formed a close connection with Daniel Cormier, participated on DWCS last season and beat An Tuan Ho, a two-time contestant, by unanimous decision. The five takedowns there didn’t please an unruly Dana White, but I think the Brazilian showed high-level trips and reversals to wilt his opponent. On regional tape, Chapolin’s boxing is also notorious for ripping the body and throwing in combination.

I wasn’t surprised to rewatch the bout and discover he’s good. Flyweight is good. That’s why I’m a little concerned for Johnson, who is starting to prove to be long in the tooth in 2026.

For years, “Inner G” was the stalwart who had never been finished, but Alex Perez KO’d him in January, and Asu Almabayev dominated him before banana splitting his legs apart for a third-round sub. A robbery of Bruno Silva sandwiched those two results. Johnson’s +0.66 SSR is adequate, but his 0.46% knockdown rate (KD%) suggests that the Josh Van and Lone’er Kavanaugh knockouts that define his career to most were pretty much flukes.

As I prepared the Ochoa bout, I thought Johnson was fudged. Chapolin brings a different test, but he’s a pressure fighter with great cardio, and I don’t trust Johnson’s defensive wrestling, which seems to come and go with no rhyme or rhythm. That arrow will point downward as he ages.

Typically, when you see short-notice guys this short in betting markets, it’s a bad sign for the UFC vet. Think of when Uros Medic was a ‘dog to Myktybek Orolbai. Felipe Lima was a slight ‘dog to Muhammad Naimov up in weight. Bettors naturally don’t want to back a guy in dire circumstances, but Chapolin seems to be the better guy in both areas to me.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Chapolin is extremely good — as was his DWCS opponent. He wasn’t in UFC because that fight wasn’t entertaining. The fight that convinced me to bet Chapolin’s -3.5 spread (+190) and unanimous decision (+240) props is the Bruno Silva affair. If you can’t finish Silva at this stage, I don’t think Johnson presents the Brazilian any danger at all.

Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Alvarez

Welterweight (170 pounds) – Featured Prelim

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win By Finish	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Njokuani	32.85%	15.76%	13.33%	2.43%	17.09%
Alvarez	67.15%	47.73%	21.68%	26.05%	19.42%

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I never imagined three years ago that I’d stuff Joel Alvarez in a parlay, but the Spaniard got a little cold water tossed on insane “film bro” hype earlier this year.

Yaroslav Amosov showed how limited Alvarez’s 46% takedown defense, which is really just to attack guillotine chokes, can be. That’s a bookmark we’ll save for another day, but Chidi Njokuani still hasn’t attempted a takedown in 10 UFC bouts. This is a matchup where Alvarez can shine.

In a tougher lightweight division, he’s posted a +1.50 SSR to Njokuani’s +1.84. But the level of competition is a wide gap. The favorite has faced Amosov, Arman Tsarukyan, and Vicente Luque in his last six fights. The promotion threw “Chidi Bang Bang” an elderly Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, Jared Gooden, and Rhys McKee in the same time frame. That trio represents his only welterweight wins.

At 37, we saw Njokuani lose a firefight to Michal Oleksiejczuk, and Alvarez has similar precision in his boxing. Plus, if there’s a slip or Alvarez decides to wrestle, he’s a lethal jiu-jitsu threat, averaging 1.1 attempts per 15 minutes, and Njokuani has intentionally been kept away from BJJ threats due to the 69-second submission loss we saw against Jake Matthews. He just can’t do it.

I’m not sure if the veteran will be on the wrong end of Alvarez’s best career performance, but I do trust the younger fighter’s speed at distance, grappling upside, and overall durability — having not been KO’d at distance since April 2015 — to guide him to a victory.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: When I thought about this fight more, Njokuani and Alvarez were fighting 30 pounds apart not even 18 months ago. Is Joel really going to flash KO him? He doesn’t really wrestle, either, to open up sub chances. Length in this fight makes a ton of sense; I played Alvarez’s R3/DEC prop (+210) in lieu of a decision due to Njokuani’s rough weigh-in on Friday. This is a huge cut for him.