UFC Perth DFS Projections: Significant Strikes and Takedown Props for Della Maddalena vs. Prates

Hello, Home of Fight fans. I’m trying something new.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Recently, I’ve added significant strike and takedown projections for Underdog and PrizePicks, as they’ve taken off in the MMA community. These are still in beta, but it’s something you can get for any fantasy sport in the world except UFC. I’m trying to change that.

As a reminder, my prelims betting primer is here on Home of Fight’s website on Fridays. My UFC main card breakdowns will be at PrizePicks Playbook on Saturdays. Matty and I’s YouTube show is also a fun time with a little of both.

From a DFS perspective, here are my projections of median significant strikes and takedowns for model-eligible fighters at UFC Perth: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, taking place at the RAC Arena in Perth, Western Australia on Saturday. The fights start at 4:00 a.m. EST.

UFC Perth: Della Maddalena vs. Prates Significant Strike Projections

NOTE: Only fights with two model-eligible fighters are included. You wouldn’t want the garbage data from smaller samples anyway.

Fighter	Median Sig Strike Proj
Jack Della Maddalena	75.41
Vince Morales	58.03
Steve Erceg	48.73
Colby Thicknesse	47.47
Tim Elliott	44.77
Quillan Salkilld	39.50
Carlos Prates	39.18
Jacob Malkoun	38.90
Beneil Dariush	37.63
Gerald Meerschaert	29.35

Significant Strike Prop to Target in DFS

Quillan Salkilld Over 26.5 Significant Strikes

I don’t want to be the anti-Quillan Salkilld guy, but I don’t think we have a clear idea of his ceiling in the rankings quite yet.

Personally, Salkilld just doesn’t seem to be a one-hitter quitter. He had the highlight KO of Nasrat Haqparast, representing one of his two UFC drops, and he chose to clinch up an extremely chinny Jamie Mullarkey. Salkilld’s 1.08% knockdown rate (KD%) is good — but not special — and should drop as he rises up the rankings.

There’s a sense that Benny Dariush’s chin is completely shot, and it might be a James Vick situation, but Charles Oliveira, Benoit Saint Denis, and Arman Tsarukyan are elite competitors, and all have badly hurt others, too.

I actually, conceptually, like the chances of a longer fight. The model has this one at +194 to go the distance, and I really do think Salkilld’s knockout window is just the first couple of minutes before any steam comes off in the clinch.

Dariush might win this fight if it’s extended as far as I think it could be, but I prefer Salkilld’s over in DFS because he could sneak over this in a fight-ending flurry inside of the first round. I don’t think Dariush has any upside whatsoever to finish this fight early, short of a submission, which might leave him short on strikes anyway.

The model’s median projection awards a 98.5% chance of over 26.5 significant strikes. It honestly thinks this line is loony when looking at Salkilld’s on-paper power metrics.

UFC Perth: Della Maddalena vs. Prates Takedown Projections

NOTE: Only fights with two model-eligible fighters are included. You wouldn’t want the garbage data from smaller samples anyway.

Fighter	Median Takedown Proj
Jacob Malkoun	4.97
Colby Thicknesse	3.15
Quillan Salkilld	3.14
Tim Elliott	2.69
Gerald Meerschaert	2.20
Steve Erceg	1.31
Beneil Dariush	0.62
Vince Morales	0.61
Jack Della Maddalena	0.19
Carlos Prates	0.10

Takedown Prop to Target in DFS

Jacob Malkoun Over 1.5 Takedowns

Here’s another spot where I’m trusting the model’s verdict on length.

Jacob Malkoun has really nice boxing, but at this point, his only knockdown came against a one-legged Torrez Finney. His 0.26 KD% is tiny, and it’d be pretty stunning to see Malkoun sub an established grappler like Gerald Meerschaert without hurting him first.

The model assigns the same exact probability to all 15 minutes (34.0%) in this fight as in the Salkilld bout. With any extended action, Malkoun’s natural tendency has been to wrestle. He’s attempted 14.53 takedowns per 15 minutes, landing a decent clip of them (40%).

There’s really only one source of drama in this fight: an early stoppage. GM3 has gone out in the first round in consecutive fights. Before that? GM3 had seen at least five minutes in five straight.

MMA bettors can’t stop fading old guys’ chins. In some spots, I get it. In spots like these? I’ve got Malkoun 95.9% likely to land multiple takedowns at his historical rates.

Think of it conceptually. With bias integrated, Malkoun in Round 1 is 32.3% implied at sportsbooks. In addition, it’d have to be a Round 1 finish that didn’t include multiple takedowns against Meerschaert’s ugly 33% takedown D. GM3 might legitimately be fine pulling guard here.

This line is wack.