UFC Sacramento Prelims Primer: Fight Predictions, Props, and Model Results for Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

If you’re new here, this is my prelim betting primer for UFC Sacramento. The main card breakdowns will be available in the PrizePicks Playbook on Saturday.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 30 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’ll be right; I just want to get it right, and I’ll give you my best effort every week.

I invite you to join the fan club for Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed it or would rather read, I’ve got you covered.

From a betting perspective, let’s preview the prelims for UFC Sacramento: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues, taking place at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, CA on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.

UFC Sacramento Prelim Betting Picks and Props

 

Shanelle Dyer vs. Elise Reed

Women’s Strawweight (115 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Dyer	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Reed	Eligible

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Elise Reed is still in the UFC?

Hey, I follow this weekly and had the same initial question when I saw this matchup, so don’t feel bad. This is her first appearance since May 2025 — a 5.5-minute stoppage loss to Denise Gomes that was a total splattering. The American boxer has lost all five times by stoppage in UFC, but all came on the ground, so — in theory — she doesn’t mind this matchup with Shanelle Dyer.

Dyer, an English kickboxer who earned a contract in defeat on DWCS, was yet another woman to stop Ravena Oliveira inside the distance, but we’ve seen her extensively in PFL Europe, too. She proved her toughness against Carol Foro’s brick-like hands, surviving to the end of her audition show despite three knockdowns.

At the end of the day, Reed’s three UFC wins are against Jinh Yu Frey, Melissa Martinez, and a nearly 42-year-old Jessica Penne. It’s a woeful strength of victory in a previous era of this division, which is why Dyer has significant height and reach edges and a far more diverse array of weapons.

The Englishwoman has also attempted 12 takedowns in two fights, when Reed’s takedown defense (53%) is bad. Don’t let the zero pro submissions on Dyer’s resume fool you in terms of her ability to also exploit what has been a glaring, unresolved hole in the smaller fighter’s game.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Dyer has an omoplata result in a grappling match regionally. I don’t think Elise Reed could identify one on TV. It’s not the most likely result, but any submission prop (+470) hung this high against the white belt is intriguing. Four of Reed’s five UFC losses were stoppages after the first round, too.

Wes Schultz vs. Jackson McVey

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Schultz	Ineligible – Octagon Time
McVey	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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This is one of those niche matchups that MMA nerds like me get stoked to see.

Wes Schultz and Jackson McVey‘s shortcomings leave no obvious outcome on the table before the fight, but it’ll look painfully obvious in hindsight. These are two fun, violent middleweights who also have sort of the same “long hair” aesthetic going on.

“Party Time” Schultz’s extensive run in LFA and successful second bid on DWCS has earned him plenty of fans, and he pulled a rabbit out of a hat in Perth with a submission in the waning seconds to topple Ben Johnston (0-1 UFC) in a fight he was losing. At 3.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes, the jiu-jitsu tricks are just about the extent of his game, with poor striking (43%) and takedown defense (21%) otherwise.

In terms of well-roundedness, you’d have to give “The Moose” an edge. While a majority of McVey’s pro wins have come via submission (4), he’s also been tapped twice in UFC by black belts Brunno Ferreira and Zach Reese. Schultz has some appeal on that basis.

But, we’ve also seen the MMA Lab product be an aggressive, accurate distance striker, landing 6.51 significant strikes per minute at an efficient clip (69%).

I legitimately just can’t let “The Moose” loose at a chalk price. His submission defense is a gaping problem when his regional “submission prowess” was front-choking low-level fighters. Schultz could legitimately find something just rolling for a leg or pulling guard, and he’s pretty aggressive in doing that.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: McVey’s power is probably overstated when he landed upwards of 50 times on a chinny Reese and couldn’t put him away. If this fight has any grappling exchanges, Schultz’s submission prop (+310) is extremely live. The floor is lava.

Gauge Young vs. Stan Dorsainvil

Lightweight (155 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Young	Eligible
Dorsainvil	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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I asked two weeks ago after Quillan Salkilld detonated another ranked foe, “how good is Gauge Young?”

At the very least, “Gee Money” proved to be tough to take a 15-minute beating from one of the best lightweights on the planet. He’s had to take the hard road into UFC, where he was outgunned on short notice by Evan Elder, but has come back to topple Maheshate and Thiago Moises, a former ranked 155er, in consecutive fights. Remember, he’s only 26.

That’s the same age as Stan Dorsainvil, a short-notice stand-in for Kody Steele as Young’s initial bout fizzled. “The Drill” has made a few fans with consecutive finishes in LFA over quality competition. His last bout with Dan Holt was impressive, capping a war with a third-round stoppage. He pushes an outstanding pace with combinations ending in body kicks, and there’s spinning stuff, but it’s sensible and efficient. He’s a natural, smooth striker with solid grappling fundamentals.

I feel bad for Young. If anyone was deserving of a prop-up spot on short notice, it’s him after an arduous road to this point, but he’s sort of running into old Salkilld problems here against. Dorsainvil’s power and six-inch edge in reach are a massive issue when Young’s striking defense (49%) is poor.

Last week, I mentioned with Eduardo Chapolin that these last-minute fighters in pick ’ems are a great historical betting position. Chapolin even won the first two rounds against Charles Johnson, but his gas tank expired. Stan already had a fight booked for August 28th, so he’s been in camp, and that’s not an issue. I think the underdog’s long, rangy weapons can help him pull an upset in an extremely fun bout.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Dorsainvil’s length, output, and wrestling are sort of a similar puzzle to Salkilld. Time will tell if he’s that good, but at +135? Why not? I do trust Young’s durability to highlight a decision prop (+250) for Stan, too.

Marcio Barbosa vs. Ryan Kuse

Featherweight (145 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Barbosa	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Kuse	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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Similar to Anthony Wint, UFC had to find someone who wanted the opportunity to fight in the promotion at all to face Marcio Barbosa.

“Ticoto” is probably one of the most fearsome DWCS prospects ever and yet, somehow, isn’t even the highest-regarded featherweight power threat from his own season. Other than a Gabriel Santos head kick in 2022, he’s nearly unblemished in 20 pro fights, and he’s absolutely swarmed and drowned both foes in the octagon thus far, recording 7.01 significant strikes per minute and 3 total knockdowns. He sent Dennis Buzukja into the shadow realm.

Angles are the name of the game for the Brazilian. He just throws hooks from very unusual angles, like the one that caught Buzukja, which has to make him tough to prepare for. In tougher matchups, we still need to learn more about his cardio and grappling defense, but Ryan Kuse isn’t one of those.

I’m not even sure I’d be impressed with Kuse’s DWCS candidacy. His last opponent in MMA had a losing record, and tight decisions with Kevin Natividad (win) and Cameron Smotherman (loss) at bantamweight aren’t an ideal sign that he’s UFC-ready at 145.

Training with my guys at “The Goat Shed” in South Florida, I’m generally trusting, but Kuse’s brawling archetype against Barbosa seems primed to get caught at some point, and there’s just no way his regional schedule has tested his chin the way it will be tested at UFC Sacramento.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: My only Barbosa exposure was the -800 moneyline I got in a parlay on Sunday. What can you do with a fight where he’s -170 to win by (T)KO in the first? If it goes beyond that, I’m not confident the slugger isn’t gassing out and selling my parlay.

Chris “Taco” Padilla vs. Nasrat Haqparast

Lightweight (155 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win By Finish	Win by (T)KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Padilla	59.66%	27.84%	16.81%	11.03%	31.83%
Haqparast	40.34%	13.16%	11.80%	1.36%	27.17%

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I’m still distraught about losing about five units backstage at UFC 327.

I thought Chris Padilla got his hand raised for a fifth win in as many tries with the promotion. That’s what was just, too. However, we got word that the scorecards were read incorrectly, that an additional round was given to MarQuel Mederos, and that the bout was declared a “majority draw” despite Padilla’s +35 strike differential. Okay.

That doesn’t change the in-octagon performance for “Taco” heading into another step up in competition in his home state. The SoCal native has a +1.31 striking success rate (SSR) with rising volume each appearance. Regionally, he made his name as a ground-and-pound wrestler, but I’m not sure how much he can dent Nasrat Haqparast‘s well-tested 86% takedown D.

Haqparast has been out of action since last October as we all learned that the aforementioned Salkilld’s parents own a bakery. It was one of the most violent KOs in UFC history — and not the first time the Tristar Gym product’s chin has failed him. In general, Haqparast has been a reliable stand-and-bang specialist with a +0.63 SSR.

However, Nasrat had a post-COVID run with a lot of last-minute stand-ins, and his strength of victory is pretty weak. His best win since the break was Rafa Garcia in 2021, before Garcia’s transformation at Bloodline. The Afghan fighter also struggled with wrestling against Dan Hooker, which has aged like milk.

It’s tough to see this fight as anything but competitive and lengthy, but, like the model, I lean toward Padilla being the better guy in both areas.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: This is a difficult stylistic matchup for Padilla, but his momentum and grappling upside matter. Nasrat had a long run of short-notice opponents that boosted his overall standing in this division, but I just kind of think he’s extremely limited to split-decision results against anyone with a chin. The model significantly leans toward Padilla and his ITD prop (+320).

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Shamil Gaziev

Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win By Finish	Win by (T)KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Nzechukwu	60.36%	34.52%	30.99%	3.52%	25.84%
Gaziev	39.64%	20.79%	15.11%	5.68%	18.85%

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You cannot bet guys with fatal, unmanageable cardio. Shamil Gaziev is that.

I trusted “The Big Meal” in a level-setting spot against Brando Pericic, but he was actually stunned early and subsequently finished by the Australian kickboxer’s high pace. Any sort of pace at all has typically wilted Gaziev, whose lone UFC win outside the first six minutes was the book definition of a “lay and pray” against Don’Tale Mayes’ porous grappling.

Most notably, Gaziev has now also taken consecutive fights of big-time damage opposite Pericic and Waldo Cortes-Acosta, who flew halfway across the world to blink the Russian in 82 seconds.

If Kennedy Nzechukwu survives the first five minutes, he’s probably in business here. I really don’t mind the 2-1-1 record at heavyweight for “The African Savage” when it’s included surviving Marcus Buchecha’s BJJ attacks, and the only setback was the cheesy Valter Walker heel hook that would get Gaziev and all but maybe five heavyweights on the planet.

At light heavyweight, Nzechukwu was chinny and a bit fragile, so I’m surprised his SSR is positive (+0.38 SSR). Gaziev’s (-1.98) isn’t close. Kennedy isn’t supremely reliable, but you have to feel good about a more athletic guy with five inches of reach and basically no path to defeat if he survives the first five minutes. Gaziev, listed as 36 and potentially older, is only declining.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Gaziev’s terminal cardio is asking for trouble at chalk. The Russian’s path is there with strong punches and Nzechukwu’s fragile chin, but other than that, a longer fight significantly favors Kennedy. I haven’t heard many people talk about this, but Gaziev absorbed a ton of damage less than three months ago, as well.

Jamall Emmers vs. Lerryan Douglas

Featherweight (145 pounds) – Featured Prelim

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Emmers	Eligible
Douglas	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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I think the UFC’s agenda will be successfully pushed here, but don’t count out Jamall Emmers entirely.

The entire trajectory of Emmers’ career could have been different if he had gotten the rightful decision against Giga Chikadze and finished knocking out Pat Sabatini before a heel hook blew his knee out. That injury, and subsequent layoff, stunted all momentum to the point where no one probably knows he’s 4-2 since coming back — and probably should be 5-1 as another split decision against Jack Jenkins went opposite how the stats look.

A lone setback against Nate Landwehr, where “The Train” found his chin in a Round 1 brawl, is why most believe he has no chance against Lerryan Douglas. I mentioned Barbosa not being the most fearsome 145er from his own season, and it’s because of Douglas’ insane 11.11% knockdown rate (KD%) to this stage against admittedly chinny guys: Cam Teague and Julian Erosa. He also KO’d a chinny Javier Reyes in LFA.

Those three are about as chinny as it gets, and Emmers’ 57% striking defense is fine. I believe that if any of the massive favorites over -400 were to topple, it could be Douglas, who has similar concerns to Barbosa about what the fight looks like if there’s resistance. Can he grapple? Does his cardio hold?

I get blindly trusting Cub Swanson’s Bloodline gym. They’re on fire. But, Douglas is a guy who was submitted by Chepe Mariscal, head-kicked by Isaac Thomson, and lost to an 11-8 pro in 2021 by decision. He’s got a great jab and pressures well, but if not for this fortuitous run of bad chins, where would he stack up?

Emmers has faced such a higher level of competition. Because “Pretty Boy” is 37 and has been KO’d three times, you should favor the Douglas train to keep chugging, but thinking just a little differently here could pay handsomely.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Douglas has looked unstoppable thus far, but I think a +120 knockout prop in Round 1 is a trap against a smart veteran like Emmers. I played Douglas & Fight Starts R2 (+185), which probably shouldn’t be so long when he fought well into the second round against Reyes. I think Emmers hangs tough just long enough to spoil this weekend’s chalky parlays.