UFC Shanghai DFS Projections: Significant Strikes, Takedowns, Knockdowns, and Submission Attempts

Hello, Home of Fight fans. This is your UFC Shanghai DFS preview.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade: to bet on the UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 30 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Recently, I’ve added significant projections for strike, takedown, knockdown, and submission attempts on Underdog and PrizePicks, as they’ve taken off in the MMA community. These are still in beta, but it’s something you can get for any fantasy sport in the world except UFC. I’m trying to change that.

As a reminder, my prelims betting primer is here on Home of Fight’s website on Fridays. My UFC main card breakdowns will be at PrizePicks Playbook on Saturdays. Matty and I’s YouTube show is also a fun time with a little of both.

From a DFS perspective, here are my projections of median significant strikes and takedowns for model-eligible fighters at UFC Shanghai: Nurmagomedov vs. Song, taking place at the Shanghai Oriental Sports Center in Shanghai, China, on Saturday. The fights start at 3:00 a.m. EST.

UFC Shanghai: Nurmagomedov vs. Song DFS Projections

NOTE: Only fights with two model-eligible fighters are included. You wouldn’t want the garbage data from smaller samples anyway.

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Median Significant Strike Projection
Yan Xiaonan	54.43
Sean Woodson	53.22
Denise Gomes	48.78
Umar Nurmagomedov	46.96
Jack Jenkins	45.84
Song Yadong	40.37
Alex Perez	34.35
Kevin Borjas	34.03
Sumudaerji	34.00
Rei Tsuruya	31.21

 

Takedowns

Fighter	Median Takedown Projection
Rei Tsuruya	3.89
Umar Nurmagomedov	3.22
Denise Gomes	1.45
Alex Perez	1.19
Jack Jenkins	1.07
Song Yadong	0.62
Yan Xiaonan	0.57
Sumudaerji	0.47
Sean Woodson	0.39
Kevin Borjas	0.00

 

Knockdowns

Fighter	Median Knockdowns Projection
Alex Perez	0.61
Song Yadong	0.49
Jack Jenkins	0.45
Kevin Borjas	0.44
Denise Gomes	0.42
Sean Woodson	0.42
Sumudaerji	0.29
Yan Xiaonan	0.15
Umar Nurmagomedov	0.12
Rei Tsuruya	0.00

 

Submission Attempts

Fighter	Median Submission Attempts Projection
Rei Tsuruya	1.57
Denise Gomes	0.68
Alex Perez	0.62
Sumudaerji	0.39
Sean Woodson	0.28
Umar Nurmagomedov	0.22
Song Yadong	0.22
Jack Jenkins	0.19
Yan Xiaonan	0.00
Kevin Borjas	0.00

 

UFC Shanghai: Nurmagomedov vs. Song DFS Picks and Props to Target

 

Kevin Borjas Over 17.5 Significant Strikes

Here we are with the whole world doubting my guy “El Gallo Negro” again.

It’s really not new. Borjas was roughly a +250 underdog on Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS). He’s been +180 or higher in six of his seven UFC-affiliated fights and continues to have moments — like going the distance with Josh Van or hurting Imanol Rodriguez — that have him No. 11 in the Meta AI Rankings. Not unranked, like in the media rankings based on bullcrap.

Borjas was +600 against Andre Lima’s potent sub threat. Just like the one from Victor Dias on DWCS. Just like Alessandro Costa’s. And yet, the Peruvian hasn’t been submitted in nearly seven years. It might have some of the best training partners in his weight class in the world at Pitbull.

What if he’s good, and what if his 72% takedown defense is legitimate? Imanol failed 2 of 3 takedowns against him. Rei Tsuruya, who barely beat Carlos Hernandez, is priced like Khamzat Chimaev to take him down and choke him. I just don’t see it.

My model believes this fight goes the distance 45.3% of the time, and it’s a pick ’em to start Round 3 at most sportsbooks. This is maybe, what, three minutes of striking exchanges? Van landed 59 significant strikes on Tsuruya in the process of defending 21 (!) takedowns.

Umar Nurmagomedov Under 3.5 Takedowns

It’s not exactly insider info that Saturday’s main event might be a 25-minute affair. Five of Umar Nurmagomedov’s last six results, excluding the Raoni Barcelos knockout, have gone the distance.

My model has it happening 57.4% of the time, and it’s about -200 at most sportsbooks. An under seems perilous, but Umar just isn’t that guy, pal.

Nurmagomedov failed 13 of 15 takedowns against Merab Dvalishvili, failing to floor him as many times (2) as Petr Yan (5) did in their most recent meeting. He failed 4 of 6 against tiny Deiveson Figueiredo. The answers to the Dagestani cage wrestling test are available on Quizlet, and everyone is using them.

Song Yadong’s takedown D (72%) is outstanding. He’s defended 31 of his last 37 attempts and made Henry Cejudo quit trying. Umar is an underrated kickboxer, and I believe that’s where he’s going to have to win this fight.

Underdog isn’t in the business of handing out free money. Nurmagomedov is a -500ish favorite in a fight going 25 minutes, and most of the public is going to lock in the “More” here. But, in addition to Yadong’s elite defense, you’ve got early finish variance on both sides that wouldn’t be insane.

My model’s median projection (3.22) says take the under.

UFC Shanghai’s Official Two-Legger

If you haven’t played DFS on Underdog, you can use my personal promo code “ASWAIM3”.

I am not an employee of Underdog, PrizePicks, or any other DFS platform. This is just my personal code as a longtime UFC DFS player.

Like with sports betting, daily fantasy involves risk. No model or projections guarantee success or long-term profitability. In fact, the projections are still in beta and highly volatile in a cage fight, where several variables can influence outcomes within seconds.

Any decisions you make while viewing and using my projections are your responsibility. If you or a loved one has a gaming issue, call 1-800-GAMBLER.