UFC Shanghai Prelims Primer: Fight Predictions, Props, and Model Results for Nurmagomedov vs. Song

If you’re new here, this is my prelim betting primer for UFC Shanghai. The main card breakdowns will be available in the PrizePicks Playbook on Saturday.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade: to bet on the UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 30 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’ll be right; I just want to get it right, and I’ll give you my best effort every week.

I invite you to join the fan club for Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed it or would rather read, I’ve got you covered.

From a betting perspective, let’s preview the prelims for UFC Shanghai: Nurmagomedov vs. Song, taking place at the Shanghai Oriental Sports Center in Shanghai, China, on Saturday. The fights start at 3:00 a.m. EST.

UFC Shanghai Predictions and Previews for the Prelims

 

Ding Meng vs. Cameron Nelson

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Meng	Eligible
Nelson	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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Boy, for a promotion hellbent on social media imprint, Canada’s Fight League Atlantic (FLA) sure doesn’t put out footage.

I couldn’t really find any Cameron Nelson footage outside of UFC Fight Pass, and logging in didn’t help. Nelson’s last appearance came against Luis Guerrero, who has fought regionally in Canada as a featherweight. Nelson still needed over six minutes to stop him. He looks like a stocky, well-trained fighter from Niagara Top Team who works off kicks and can wrestle, but it’s tough to tell.

Perhaps I loaded in cynically about regional Canadian MMA after the Julien LeBlanc debacle, but Nelson is the first FLA fighter to appear in the UFC. That’s a huge risk, given that Ding Meng‘s UFC tenure isn’t especially bad.

In two full-length octagon trips, Meng had to overcome his Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) foe running for the hills and a six-inch reach disadvantage against Brazil’s Jose Souza. While he didn’t, a -0.53 striking success rate (SSR) isn’t all bad, and I think his durability has really been on display to not get KO’d by either guy.

I don’t think the Chinese favorite has special power, but he’s got a quality jab and low kick, and this might be his easiest foe to grapple yet. Meng’s last submission loss came in January 2021, too.

Meng has given me no reason to doubt he’ll — at the very least — be in this fight for a while, and it’s tough not to lean on his high-level experience in that case. I feel like they flew Nelson halfway across the world to give Meng an opportunity to win in his home country.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I have minimal reasons to doubt Nelson’s toughness, but I also have few to believe he’s ready to win UFC fights. I think Meng takes a measured approach to a convincing win that has length.

Jingnan Xiong vs. Julia Polastri

Women’s Strawweight (115 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Xiong	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Polastri	Eligible

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I was disappointed “The Panda” in her current form didn’t translate to the UFC.

Maybe you could write off Jingnan Xiong‘s debut as jitters, but she’s now 38 in a division where speed is king. Somehow, an ageless Angie Hill hasn’t slowed down, and that was evident as she beat Xiong pillar-to-post for a +54 striking differential in Macau earlier this year.

The former ONE Championship star enters this fight with poor striking accuracy (34%) and defense (38%) against a woman who I still feel is a step up in competition from Hill, Julia Polastri.

Polastri got caught in the Twilight Zone that is the first fight of the night (usually a women’s one) at the Meta Apex, succumbing to Talita Alencar’s snake charm, losing a low-volume decision, and soiling parlays. Even in that case, “Psycho” had a +18 striking differential and arguably got robbed.

Polastri has already fought inside the top 10 against Loopy Godinez and had a +3 striking differential. I don’t know why she’s moving backward after proving her worth in a division that has thin margins and extreme variance. Hill and Gillian Robertson would fight to a split decision tomorrow.

In addition to the Brazilian’s obvious grappling edge, Jingnan’s cardio was problematic against Hill, and Polastri’s shots are three times harder. She probably isn’t shoring up many defensive woes at this point in her career, either.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Perhaps Xiong has more to give than her debut, but UFC strawweights are too durable to wing punches and pray. A motivated Polastri has shown she can land powerful punches in combination — especially when no grappling threat comes back her way.

Lawrence Lui vs. Hector Santiago

Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Lui	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Santiago	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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Boy, that plus money with Lawrence Lui didn’t stick around long, huh?

Inexplicably, the City Kickboxing was a +230ish underdog at UFC 325 in a Road to UFC (RTU) finale, which blew my mind given his pedigree and the fact that those fights are largely crapshoots. Sure enough, he used 7 takedowns and 4:59 in control time to grind out a split decision over Sulangrangbo, a moderate power threat.

That helped absolve some chin concerns after he was dropped twice in his RTU debut. Otherwise, I think he works well off his jab and, clearly, has rounded out his skillset — as many CKB guys are doing in 2026.

I totally get him being a decent-sized favorite over Hector Santiago, who hasn’t proven much himself. Santiago is the first fighter from Money Moicano MMA — guess the founder — to make his UFC debut after a highlight there. Clearly, the Brazilian has some pop with five of his six wins coming by (T)KO.

The former boxer got to do what he does best, but I’ve got some questions. A 22-second loss in karate via a body kick isn’t ideal when body kicks are legal in MMA. Lui landed 6 of 16 body shots in January. And then, there’s the whole defending takedowns thing.

Lui’s chin and a RTU pedigree are enough to dodge major parlays or any strong conviction, but he’s got Santiago covered on a skill-for-skill basis.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I can’t find a convincing reason to believe Santiago has more paths than a prayer of a right hand in a division where knockout equity isn’t enormous. Lui has never won a fight by submission, but he might have a generic grappling edge here — and several paths to an impressive finish.

Xiao Long vs. Francesco Nuzzi

Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Long	Eligible
Nuzzi	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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The UFC is welcoming PFL retreads, further closing the gap between the two promotions.

Francesco Nuzzi ended up losing to DWCS flameout Mando Gutierrez in a PFL Champions Series showcase, and the free agent got this call to make his UFC debut against Xiao Long after a pair of appearances in Cage Warriors. I can’t say they were overly impressive, handing Lucas Rodrigues one of his six straight losses and committing four (!) fouls against Manoel Silva until the final groin strike left Silva unable to compete.

The Italian “Berserker” can definitely box, showcasing a quick 1-2 from a southpaw stance and throwing open-stance kicks pretty naturally. But he was dropped early by Sousa, and the submission loss to Gutierrez raises at least some concerns about grappling at a high level.

Call this a battle of ball-crushers. Long is coming off an inexplicable loss to Cody Garbrandt, where he won all three rounds on a scorecard but lost two points to groin strikes that left Garbrandt heaving into a bucket. The combatant fell to 1-3 in a UFC schedule chock full of RTU alums outside of Garbrandt, so I still don’t think he’s got a great measuring stick other than comfortably controlling the pace of his last fight.

I do wonder what the odds would be in this bout if it weren’t in China, but Long is a tough out. He’s a tank with an excellent chin, and his +1.21 SSR is much better than this record. Long passed a tougher grappling test in the form of Su Young “Yoo-Jitsu”.

Nuzzi’s split decision against Bernado Sopaj in 2021 was, in my opinion, a robbery. Even then, I think Long is the most powerful opponent on his schedule yet, and we know the favorite is looking to make a statement in his home country.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: The early knockdown surrendered to Sousa worries me that Nuzzi is just a tiny bit chinny when Long is a marauder. He’s willing to trade recklessly. I think the Chinese fighter walks forward confidently and, eventually, finds the button in boxing exchanges that are otherwise fairly even.

Jack Jenkins vs. Sean Woodson

Featherweight (145 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win By Finish	Win by (T)KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Jenkins	51.84%	25.64%	16.27%	9.37%	26.20%
Woodson	48.16%	22.15%	14.20%	7.95%	26.01%

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“Phar” Jack returns.

Jack Jenkins is someone that always shines on a spreadsheet. The mustachioed Aussie has a +1.53 SSR with elite striking accuracy (61%) and defense (59%). The former is a product of devastating low kicks, and his wrestling (60% takedown accuracy) has been an appropriate complement. The one true blemish on his resume was a submission loss to Gabriel Santos, who is still flying up these 145-pound rankings. That shortcoming isn’t a concern against Sean Woodson.

Woodson, the uniquely built American boxer, seemed to really be surging toward the rankings with force as “The Sniper” brought a four-fight win streak to the doorstep of the rankings against Dan Ige and, arguably, won the first 8 minutes against the veteran. Ige, though, began to find his timing in the pocket and landed his patented bomb of a right hand in Round 3.

This is an interesting fight because Woodson’s takedown defense (84%) has been a non-starter in most matchups, but this is easily his toughest test since a 2021 split-decision win over Youssef Zalal. I still don’t forecast much wrestling success, and my model (projecting 1.07 takedowns) agrees.

However, I think it’s the low kicks that could even this dynamic. Charles Jourdain, now at bantamweight, landed 21, but they didn’t have the impact that Jenkins’ granite shin usually does. I was also surprised that the Aussie’s knockdown rate (0.74 KD%) is so high.

Ultimately, I sort of agree with this model read because, even when Woodson is flowing, he’s just not super dangerous. Jenkins lands with more substantial impact. While the underdog may struggle to get inside and score at times, I think he’ll have the most notable moments of a competitive fight. Woodson’s cardio is also a bit of a red flag after showing noted fatigue against both Ige and Fernando Padilla in a barnburner.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: There’s not gobs of betting value on this fight, but I would put it closer to a coin flip than it sits. Neither guy’s competition has aged extremely well, and Jenkins’ gap from Ige (if there is one) as a striker is probably made up for by the wrestling danger and the pace he’s shown a willingness to push.

Rei Tsuruya vs. Kevin Borjas

Flyweight (125 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win By Finish	Win by (T)KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Tsuruya	67.85%	47.85%	13.81%	34.04%	20.00%
Borjas	32.15%	6.84%	6.84%	0.00%	25.31%

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Death, taxes, and Kevin Borjas by decision? It’s certainly tough to visualize.

That really was the case before his fight with Andre Lima, though, and he cashed as a +600 underdog in a fight where most were critical of Lima, but the Brazilian just couldn’t find enough answers for Borjas’ boxing and takedown defense (72%). That’s yet another matchup where “El Gallo Negro” was designed to be submitted, which was also the case against Victor Dias. And Alessandro Costa. And now Rei Tsuruya.

Though this isn’t Tsuruya’s home country, he’s close to home as he was in Macau, where he delivered a breakout performance with a first-round submission win over Luis Gurule. Tsuruya needed that after an unimpressive decision win (Carlos Hernandez) and loss (Joshua Van) in two prior starts. The Japanese grappling phenom, at 24, has already aced his UFC-affiliated tenure there with 5.03 takedowns and 2.0 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Van also has the best anti-grappling in the division, so no stock was lost there.

I actually think my model is right, and the market is wrong. The problem is that Tsuruya’s +109 odds to finish Borjas in the model could easily look like the -300 odds they sit at in betting markets when the fight plays out.

However, I just really don’t understand the continued disrespect for Borjas, whose UFC losses to Van, Costa, and Imanol Rodriguez were scheduled. Sumudaerji isn’t losing much these days with his ridiculous length at flyweight, either. In general, I think Borjas is a fast, dynamic boxer training at an unbelievable gym in Peru for smaller bodies, alongside the likes of Jesus Pinedo and Rodrigo Vera.

This is an even easier test on the feet if he’s stuffing takedowns — as was the case against Lima. His one loss by submission was almost seven years ago. Has a win over Gurule really boosted the overall trust in Tsuruya’s taxing, inconsistent style this much?

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I often say that the “money glitch” bets, like Borjas by decision as a mammoth underdog again, rarely cash. But, this seems like yet another handicap where no one wants to actually take inventory of his takedown and grappling defense while acknowledging that he’s the better striker. An upset is absolutely live.

Namsrai Batbayar vs. Andre Lima

Flyweight (125 pounds) – Featured Prelim

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Batbayar	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Lima	Eligible

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I suppose we’ll have an answer about Andre Lima before this featured prelim begins, depending on how Borjas looks.

As mentioned, “Mascote” soiled many parlays by losing as a mammoth favorite (and sitting minus money for a finish) against Kevin Borjas, which was a reality check for the Brazilian’s 4-0 start to his UFC career against low-level flyweight competition. In fact, the trajectory of how he’s viewed might have been forever changed if Igor Severino hadn’t bitten him and thrown away a fight Lima was destined to lose.

As a +1.28 SSR indicates, Lima is slick on the feet — even with a muted output designed to protect his cardio as a mammoth 125er. We’ve seen his finishing danger mostly come with back takes, posting 0.9 submission attempts per 15 minutes. The betting line here looks like trusting a solid, well-rounded fighter and fading a RTU contestant, and I get it.

But, Namsrai Batbayar is a barbarian. The dude charges forward with bad intentions, recording 4 knockdowns in three UFC-affiliated starts. He puts out a quality pace at 9.87 significant strikes attempted per minute. His one loss in 11 pro fights came via submission to Nyamjargal Tumendeberel, who showed his grappling prowess against Cody Durden earlier this year. Plus, he was just 21 years old when it happened.

Batbayer has many qualities of fighters from East Asia, showcasing pretty unbreakable durability, a fervent up-and-down tempo, and total urgency (bordering on out of control) in scrambles. That’s probably where Lima would be most dangerous to take the back and make him pay. I just can’t help but remember Mascote’s fight with Severino, though, where that sort of tempo broke him — and no one else has really forced it since that.

The underdog might have to push through adversity at points, but I do think he’s just the guy you’d want your money behind between these two. He doesn’t stop coming forward. Not many RTU alums are putting dudes out cold, so I am willing to overlook the contest’s overall disappointing results in UFC to believe in him here.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Isn’t the jig kind of up on Lima? He’s a polished, well-rounded guy, but his intangibles are kind of bad. He didn’t really have anything to push past Borjas’ mild resistance. Batbayar might be on the wild side, but he’s got a ton of plus intangibles, and I can’t help but think this featured prelim spot is a bit of a showcase.