Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC 324
UFC 324 in Las Vegas shapes up as a violent litmus test for hype trains and aging guns alike, headlined by Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett for the interim lightweight strap. Gaethje brings championship-round experience, low kicks, and nuclear counterpunching, but he is 37 with a lot of mileage, giving Pimblett a narrow window if he can survive early attrition and drag this into chaotic scrambles.
The bantamweight picture could be radically different by Sunday morning, with Sean O’Malley and Song Yadong in a de facto contender eliminator where O’Malley’s layered feints and pull counters clash with Song’s compact pressure and body work. On the prelims, Umar Nurmagomedov’s suffocating top game and kicking arsenal meet Deiveson Figueiredo’s explosive counters in a matchup that should clarify who actually sits closest to Petr Yan’s throne at 135.
Heavyweight chaos is almost guaranteed when Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Derrick Lewis start trading, and featherweight contenders Arnold Allen and Jean Silva, and flyweights Alex Perez and Charles Johnson give this card real depth across divisions. Stylistically, it is a card built for violence: forward-moving punchers matched with slick counterstrikers and elite wrestle-grapplers, the kind of matchmaking that usually delivers bonuses and upsets.
Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett
- HayJive – Paddy Pimblett
“I gotta take the younger guy here, paddy should have a wide advantage if the fight hits the mat. On the feet Gaethje theoretically should be winning but don’t sleep on the danger of Paddy there.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Paddy Pimblett
“The youth, size, strength, and ground game could give Justin issues here. I think Paddy is constantly improving.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Paddy Pimblett
“I do believe that Paddy is being overlooked on the mat in how dangerous he can be, and I can’t count on Gaethje to not make mistakes while on the mat.”
- Corrie – Paddy Pimblett
“Paddy has the momentum, the activity, and he’s tough to read. He’s scrappy and awkward, and Gaethje’s not a safety-first fighter like he’ll defff engage. That opens up scrambles, and Paddy’s opportunistic there, plus, even though Gaethje’s violent, it comes at a cost becausehe takes damage by design.”
- The Fight Analyst – Paddy Pimblett
“While I don’t expect this to be an easy fight like many others do, I still think Paddy has more ways to get this one done in the end. His awkwardness on the feet will keep things interesting at range, and when Gaethje makes one mistake overextending, Pimblett will capitalize take this fight to the mat and finish the job.”
- Austin Swaim – Paddy Pimblett
“When thrust into a title enviornment against elite grapplers, Justin Gaethje has twice looked like he didn’t belong. Rafael Fiziev just took him down twice. Paddy’s wrestling might not be elite, but he’s grown into his 155-pound frame every appearance, and one mistake that puts this fight on the floor could — and should — be all she wrote. If the Englishman’s historical durability holds, this might be a quick one.”
Sean O’Malley vs. Song Yadong
- HayJive – Sean O’Malley
“If O’Malley is dialed in, this should be a good matchup for him. Song is too flat footed of a striker, and O’Malley lives on being faster and more active to piece up his opponents.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Sean O’Malley
“Sean’s size, speed, and striking at range is the recipe to beat Song. Sean will defend takedowns and I believe he will look sharp.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Sean O’Malley
“Simple, Song takes damage, and I can see the damage being accumulative over R3’s, causing something similar to a Doctor’s Stoppage.”
- Corrie – Sean O’Malley
“Sean’s movement should trouble Song and when Song overextends, openings show up and Sean’s one of the best at making you pay for that. I like the experience and precision here.”
- The Fight Analyst – Sean O’Malley
“While Song is a tough matchup for most at 135 pounds, this is a tailor-made matchup for O’Malley to get right. This could look similar to the Sandhagen fight, where the speed and length of O’Malley will give Song trouble. O’Malley goes in there and touches Song up for 15 minutes and gets his hand raised in the end.”
- Austin Swaim – Sean O’Malley
“Red flags about Song Yadong’s striking at this top-shelf level are present. Cory Sandhagen broke his orbital bone, Chris Gutierrez won the distance differential, and Henry Cejudo wasn’t short on success until he got his eyes poked. The promotion is always kind to “Suga”, and the aggressive Yadong, whose wrestling threat is just okay, is a perfect dancing partner for the favorite to make a statement.”
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Derrick Lewis
- HayJive – Waldo Cortes-Acosta
“I’m never shocked when Lewis lands the big KO punch, but I’ll trust Waldo’s athleticism, Cardio, and minute winning striking to take this.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Waldo Cortes-Acosta
“Waldo is much faster, a better athlete, and has shown a great chin. I think the speed will allow him to take less shots than Lewis’s last few opponents.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Waldo Cortes-Acosta
“Normally Lewis sends back the younger prospects that don’t have as much experience. Waldo has been in there with great names already, including power-puncher Pavlovich, in a competitive bout.”
- Corrie – Waldo Cortes-Acosta
“On athleticism, output, and overall technique, I lean Waldo. That said, I’ll be holding my breath the whole time because Derrick Lewis only needs one shot but still, I’d rather side with the more consistent guy who’s clearly on the way up than someone waiting for the perfect moment. *This is very much a proceed-with-caution spot.”
- The Fight Analyst – Waldo Cortes-Acosta
“It seems as time has passed, Derrick Lews at this stage of his career. While he still possesses one-punch knockout power, Cortes-Acosta is too skilled to let Lewis land the kill shot. Cortes-Acosta will outstrike Lewis throughout the majority of this fight, potentially putting him away midway through the bout.”
- Austin Swaim – Waldo Cortes-Acosta
“Cortes-Acosta’s approach to this fight will be fascinating. We’ve seen some striker pierce right through Derrick Lewis’ poor movement and footwork, and others stayed incredibly safe to avoid a disastrous mistake. Either way, the Dominican’s elite chin has me believing he’ll find a way to get his hand raised.”
Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunas
- HayJive – Natalia Silva
“Natalia is a very tough striker to deal with, her footwork, speed, and strength makes it tough for any opponent to have real threats on offense. I don’t see anything different here, I don’t expect a blowout but a competitive decision going to Silva.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Natalia Silva
“Silva is such a great striker, and her takedown defense has been very solid. Rose seems a bit slower than she was in her prime, and that’ll make it tough against a killer like Natalia.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Natalia Silva
“Too quick, reaching her prime, solid takedown defense and actual ability to create damage against a slower, less motivated Namajunas.”
- Corrie – Natalia Silva
“Natalia’s on a crazy run, and I like her ability to manage distance and limit Rose’s success on the ground. I also have some doubts about Rose’s mental lately and how comfortable she is at this weight class but ultimately when you factor in Silva’s technique and aggression, I lean her way here.”
- The Fight Analyst – Natalia Silva
“This will be the coming-out party for Natalia Silva at UFC 324. Her speed, movement, and diverse skill set will make this a tough stylistic matchup for Namajunas. If Namajunas can’t close the gap on the feet to land her strikes and land takedowns, she’s going to get outstruck to a decision defeat by Silva as Silva puts herself into title contention.”
- Austin Swaim – Natalia Silva
“Natalia Silva isn’t always entertaining, but she’s lightning quick and supremely technical. Her 92% takedown D has kept fights on the feet, too. Thug Rose has a knack for keeping fights close, but I think this is a blowout that results in an unexpected finish.”
Arnold Allen vs. Jean Silva
- HayJive – Jean Silva
“Arnold Allen has never been finished, but I don’t think he’s faced anyone with the danger factor that Silva possesses. Silva has done very well against southpaw strikers due to his elite counter left hook and powerful straight right hand. I could see Silva being the first man to stop Allen.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Jean Silva
“Jean is hungry for a win, while Arnold rarely fights anymore and has dealt with injuries. Jean will march forward and apply the pressure needed to win.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Jean Silva
“Allen’s head-movement is ideal and without a grappling threat, Silva will not feel threatened towards being alarmed on his grappling attempts.”
- Corrie – Jean Silva
“I am such a Jean Silva believer it’s not even funny. And beyond that, Arnold’s taken a lot of damage and he’s coming off a long layoff and when it comes to momentum, aggression, and that very real ‘who wants it more’ factor, it’s Silva every time for me.”
- The Fight Analyst – Jean Silva
“Well, things didn’t go so well when I picked Jean Silva as the favorite against Diego Lopes, so what could go wrong doing it again here. Silva is, by far, the more dangerous fighter and could be the first to put away Arnold Allen this weekend. If Allen doesn’t land takedowns, Silva will land his strikes, putting a hurting on Allen to get back into the win column.”
- Austin Swaim – Arnold Allen
“This seems like a far tougher fight to call than odds suggest. Arnold Allen’s defensive efficiency on the feet is elite, and Jean Silva’s lack of size in this division seemed to hurt him for the first time against Lopes. I’ll back the Brit in a tight bout that goes the distance.”
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