UFC Southpaw Report: UFC 311

Southpaw Report: UFC 311

Hello and welcome to the ever-popular southpaw report, which can now be found here exclusively at Home of Fight!

Aside from the fact that most statistics you see on major broadcasts are drawn from a faulty well of information full of misinterpretation and human error, the statistical categories discussed generally lack proper sample sizes and contexts.

So, with that in mind, I try to provide unique, applicable and (hopefully) interesting stats in the form of my patent southpaw reports.

Here, I will do my best to provide you with everything from stats to written and visual analysis covering every fighter facing a dedicated southpaw on upcoming UFC cards.

UFC 311 features a decent clip of dedicated southpaws, so let’s get started!

Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano

Renato Moicano, who will now step in on short notice to face southpaw Islam Makhachev, is 3-1 opposite UFC-level lefties (Wins: Jailin Turner, Drew Dober, Benoit Saint-Denis; Losses: Rafael dos Anjos).

Renato Moicano’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1880102107304587410

Moicano still jabs and uppercuts in the open stance but mainly prefers to counter. Left-sided strikes and body shots (in both stances) are Moicano’s common culprit.

My prediction: Despite my personal bias and rooting interest aligning with Moicano and what could be one of the best title rises in recent UFC history, the objective analyst in me can’t help but favor the sitting champion to retain. That said, do not be surprised if Moicano, even in defeat, can make this fight look way closer than what the odds indicate.

Moicano prediction tweet: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1880325753822482746

Don’t forget, Moicano said on Ep. 36 of “SHOW ME THE MONEY,” that he was expecting to be the replacement to fight Makhachev in case anything happened, stating that ‘he had the answers for his technique.’

Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill

Jiri Prochazka, who faces Jamahal Hill at UFC 311, is 1-2 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Dominick Reyes; Losses: Abdul-Kerim Edilov, Bojan Velickovic)

Jiri Prochazka’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1880101413218566437

Edilov and Velickovic quickly took him down and finished him, so there are no relevant sample sizes there. However, left-sided strikes, regardless of stance, remain Prochazka’s common culprit.

My prediction: It’s not a popular pick, but I think that Hill is going to knock out Prochazka in Round 1.

Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder

Kevin Holland, who faces southpaw Reinier de Ridder, is 8-2-1 against UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Geoff Neal, John Phillips, *Gerald Meerschaert, Joaquin Buckley, Charlie Ontiveros, Tim Means, Michael Chiesa, Michal Oleksiejczuk; Losses: Marvin Vettori, Derek Brunson; No Contest: Kyle Daukaus)

Kevin Holland’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1880103854626451675

Holland strikes surprisingly well with southpaws, showing that he has much more than an accurate right cross. Nevertheless, crashing space at the cost of his striking range and getting naked kicks countered remain problems for Holland in open-stance affairs.

My prediction: Even though I’d rather see Holland press his obvious advantages on the feet, I suspect that his propensity to get pushed onto his back foot against the cage will be costly against a grapple-first fighter like de Ridder. The pick is de Ridder by submission in Round 2.

Clayton Carpenter vs. Tagir Ulanbekov

Clayton Carpenter, who faces southpaw Tagir Ulanbekov, is officially 1-0 against UFC-level lefties (beating Juan Camilo Ronderos).

Carpenter also has a highlight win over southpaw Rodney Kealohi on the LFA circuit, showing off a tight cross-hook combo that led to a crushing head kick.

Clayton Carpenter’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1880106897665368213

My prediction: You won’t win much money betting against Khabib’s crew, but Ulanbekov’s body appears ready for a move to bantamweight given how badly he’s draining his frame at 33 years of age. I’ll pick Carpenter to catch Ulanbekov cold with a first-round knockout.

Muin Gafarov vs. Rinya Nakamura

Muin Gafarov, who faces southpaw and standout wrestler Rinya Nakamura, is officially 0-0 against dedicated UFC-level lefties but did lose to a stance-switching John Castañeda.

Muin Gafarov’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1880105442891952242

Gafarov will aggressively throw everything including the kitchen sink, but straight punches and kicks seem vacant from his arsenal in open-stance affairs. It’s not the biggest sample size, but left-sided strikes appeared to be Gafarov’s common culprit from a defensive standpoint.

My prediction: Even if I wasn’t high on Nakamura as a prospect from Jump Street, I’d still have a hard time picking Gafarov in this spot given his porous striking and wrestling defense. I’m not sure if the Japanese fighter can finish the Durable Gafarov, so I’ll officially take Nakamura to win by unanimous decision.

Want to know more about each event? Visit homeoffight.com or any of our social media accounts for more articles, fighter interviews, and plenty of more coverage. Enjoy the fights, let us know how you’ll be watching!