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If you’re new here, this is my prelim betting primer for UFC Perth. The main card breakdowns will be available in the PrizePicks Playbook on Saturday.
I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.
Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’ll be right; I just want to get it right, and I’ll give you my best effort every week.
I invite you to join the fan club for Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed it or would rather read, I’ve got you covered.
From a betting perspective, let’s preview the prelims for UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, taking place at the Prudential Center in New York, New Jersey on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland Prelim Betting Picks and Props
Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa
Flyweight (125 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | Win By Finish | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Carpenter | 50.47% | 21.41% | 1.25% | 20.16% | 29.06% |
| Ochoa | 49.53% | 29.88% | 11.23% | 18.65% | 19.65% |
My biggest takeaway from the Cody Durden-Jafel Filho bout two weeks ago was that I want my Clayton Carpenter dollars back from his fight with Filho.
The MMA Lab product got caught by a high-level black belt, but it’s now abundantly clear he’d have coasted past the Brazilian’s poor cardio if he survived Round 1. Carpenter is a prodigy of sorts, entering UFC at 7-0 after mauling Edgar Chairez on Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) in a result that’s aged like wine. He also submitted Lucas Rocha three fights ago. The ground just isn’t a weakness for a guy who also has lethal standup.
I’m deeply perturbed by this matchup with Jose Ochoa in a battle of “my guys”. I’ve backed “Kalzifer” in all three fights thus far, including a short-notice debut with Lone’er Kavanaugh that’s aged as well as the Chairez mauling, considering a -1 striking differential from the decision. He’s coming off a disappointing effort against Asu Almabayev where he was just unable to stuff takedowns, coughing up 7 in a decision loss. That’s unfortunately a bad habit of his world-renowned Chute Box gym.
If I had to guess, this line is an overreaction to Carpenter’s loss when Ochoa has shown some submission danger (1.3 attempts per 15) but has yet to convert. Carpenter’s own offensive submission tendencies deserve some credit here, given that he’s the significantly better wrestler and has a better striking success rate (+1.09 SSR) than Ochoa (+0.68) to this point.
Above all, I just agree that this should be closer to a pick ’em — and fudge the UFC for making me root against either of these two.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I ended up playing the model’s heavy lean for this fight to end sub (+550). It’s peculiar that Carpenter (+800) is actually the one with the lower odds to find it as an underdog. I don’t get the (T)KO prices in the prop market at all when both are extremely durable.
Baisangur Susurkaev vs. Djorden Santos
Middleweight (185 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Susurkaev | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
| Santos | Eligible |
Djorden Santos is a roster zombie. The UFC can’t get rid of him. They’re hoping that one of their favorite prospects does the job.
Santos was never in the promotion’s plans before he upset Will Currie as a +380 underdog during Season 8 of DWCS. Then, in an attempt to build the Brazilian, he lost to Ozzy Diaz (1-1 UFC) in one of 2025’s biggest upsets. “Shakur” turned the tables once more on Danny Barlow as a +210 underdog, implying that laying chalk in any of his fights probably isn’t a good idea.
In one of the more peculiar analytical profiles you’ll see, Santos’ SSR (+1.02) is good, but both his striking accuracy (44%) and defense (48%) are not. Personally, I think he just ran up the score on Currie, who isn’t a UFC-level fighter. An upset of Baisangur Susurkaev would be a stunner.
“Hunter” isn’t as good as UFC hopes, but he’s a quality fighter best known for turning around on one week’s notice from his DWCS win to a UFC debut (and win) over another debutant, Eric Nolan. The longtime training partner of Khamzat Chimaev found a Round 3 (T)KO of Eric McConico after some early adversity, but McConico became a multi-time promotional winner at the Apex last month.
In the standup, Susurkaev’s hands and kicks seem significantly faster. He doesn’t carry a lot of power, but I’d presume he also has a grappling path at UFC 328, given that Currie posted 4:13 in control time.
It seems like Susurkaev is one of those prospects who will scrape the bottom of the barrel and underperform at times as he progresses, but the 25-year-old is improving around elite partners. The betting prices are poor at UFC 328, but above all criticism, he’s still stopped all three of his UFC-affiliated opponents. He should be a heavy favorite to cruise by Santos’ underwhelming profile.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Susurkaev seems like he doesn’t carry a ton of pop, so I could easily see this one hitting the card. However, he’s attempted 14 takedowns in his last two fights, and if he’s learned a thing or two from Khamzat, I’m still not quite sure I trust the Brazilian’s ground game.
Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis
Featherweight (145 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | Win By Finish | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Sabatini | 56.93% | 26.03% | 3.16% | 22.87% | 30.90% |
| Gomis | 43.07% | 17.68% | 12.53% | 5.14% | 25.39% |
Sometimes, I just tip my hat to UFC matchmakers. This stylistic matchup is brilliant. You’ve got a grappling specialist that is the chinniest featherweight on the roster against a pillow-handed point fighter with good anti-grappling. I’m amazed I didn’t see this coming.
Pat Sabatini is a fighter I’ve always struggled to get my arms around despite an 8-2 record. When he can implement his gameplan, he looks absolutely dominant. However, any fight in which he’s been resigned to distance for any period has resulted in a brutal knockout loss. Curiously, he’s come at underdog prices lately opposite Jonathan Pearce and Chepe Mariscal, but chalk is another story.
Ahead of Robert Ruchala’s barnburner last month at the Apex, I noted that the “Gomisverse” is a place where all offense and fun go to die, though. Gomis is perhaps the roster’s most notorious point fighter, using elite striking (61%) and takedown (72%) defense to turn every fight into an ugly slog. His one fight that didn’t go the distance was dragging a woefully unqualified Yanis Ghemmouri (0-2 UFC) to Round 3.
However, I’ve had this hypothesis that Gomis might be really poor off his back. Joanderson Brito and a younger Francis Marshall combined for four submission attempts against him but didn’t seal the deal. Sabatini is levels above both on the mat, and Gomis has never dropped a UFC opponent, easing concerns about the Philadelphian’s chin.
Close to Sabatini’s home area, it hit me on Monday. I think this is a setup spot that also keeps a boring Gomis out of the rankings.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I ended up playing Sabatini’s point spread (-120) in this spot because if he wins, it’s dominant. If he loses, it’s likely Gomis will win due to his unexpected success in staying at striking distance to find the button. In a roundabout way, I think his point spread is basically his moneyline at a fraction of the cost. I wish this sub price wasn’t so short.
Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio
Middleweight (185 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | Win By Finish | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Kopylov | 38.78% | 19.91% | 17.89% | 2.02% | 18.87% |
| Tulio | 61.22% | 35.99% | 22.94% | 13.05% | 25.23% |
Middleweights looking for a rebound will square off in this UFC 328 prelim.
Roman Kopylov had the rankings in front of him before running into a resurgent Paulo Costa, who has since exited the division and stands in line to challenge for the 205-pound strap. Another chance against Gregory Rodrigues was a losing effort, too, but lasting all 15 minutes with “Robocop” is a true sign of toughness.
While talented, I’m not sure the Russian always puts it together between the ears about when to use his weapons. It seems impossible he’d have a -0.59 SSR with his skill set, and “Fluffy” Hernandez exposed some grappling limitations in bad positions, but he’s largely been able to keep the fight standing (88% takedown D).
I find this matchup with Marco Tulio fascinating. Tulio’s entire UFC resume has aged incredibly well, dating back to a decision win over Yousri Belgaroui on DWCS that was deemed “too boring” for a contract. It turns out those two elite fighters just showed up in the wrong bracket. Tulio dismantled Ihor Potieria and Treseason Gore before a fight with Christian Leroy Duncan, where he was leading the Englishman (+4 striking differential) before getting clipped and finished.
In theory, Tulio is the better analytical striker and should have all of the fight’s grappling upside, so I understand the line and would straight pick him to win. However, I can’t fire on a -185 moneyline when Kopylov’s standup will always be competitive, he’s beaten significantly tougher competition, and it could be difficult to floor him when that’s also rarely Tulio’s gameplan.
I settled for a dart in the Brazilian’s prop market.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Tulio’s submission or decision prop (+170) is sick at UFC 328. Kopylov is a talented, fast-moving defenseman. I think the only way Tulio wins in a spot to cover this number is to mix in grappling, and it’s almost two-to-one odds.
Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon
Lightweight (155 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | Win By Finish | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Miller | 37.06% | 28.16% | 12.59% | 15.57% | 8.90% |
| Gordon | 62.94% | 21.85% | 15.56% | 6.29% | 41.09% |
This could well be the end of the line for Jim Miller, who will move a third bout beyond his previous target of UFC 300 at 42 years old.
If you think about the attributes that ail elderly MMA fighters, it’s bizarre that Jim Miller really hasn’t shown any of them. He’s been dropped just once since April 2018, which happened at UFC 300 against King Green. Miller is 6-3 in his last nine bouts, with all wins coming inside the distance, and some of the competitors — like Damon Jackson and Nikolas Motta — aren’t all washed old guys or stiffs.
Really, the culprit for Miller’s losses is the same: a 48% takedown defense, which Chase Hooper dismantled in Miami during his last bout. We’ll see if Jared Gordon comes out looking to wrestle and takes the same approach.
“Flash” is a popular cult hero in this lightweight division due to a robbery loss to Paddy Pimblett as a huge underdog and his inspiring story of turning his life around from drugs. Gordon is a volume boxer that my model typically likes (+1.50 SSR), and most forgive his last effort due to a reported car accident before Noche UFC last fall.
I have a problem with this betting line. Gordon, 37, is no spring chicken himself. Miller undoubtedly has the edge in finishing upside. A fluke sliming of Thiago Moises, who dropped four times in his last three bouts, is why public bettors will swear by a KO of the elder statesman at UFC 328, but Miller’s striking defense (56%) has remained strong, and he’s shown no durability concerns.
Add in that Gordon’s zero career submission attempts are a massive red flag entering a matchup with a guy who lives to snatch necks and arms, and I don’t know how you lay chalk here with the Queens native. This is absolutely a winnable fight for “A-10”.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Jared Gordon has become…wildly overrated? My favorite prop on the card might void if Jim Miller’s takedown D fails him once again, but Miller in finish-only markets (+165) should be favored. He’s clearly got the submission upside with a chin that hasn’t been cracked since 2018.
Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki
Lightweight (155 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | Win By Finish | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Dawson | 50.02% | 24.53% | 9.16% | 15.37% | 25.49% |
| Rebecki | 49.98% | 31.17% | 21.14% | 10.03% | 18.82% |
I have irrational confidence in Matuesz Rebecki for a guy who has looked straight out of a horror film in four straight fights — win or loss.
Styles make fights, and Rebecki seems like a nightmare matchup for Grant Dawson as both look to rebound from losses. The Polish fighter is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who landed more takedowns (3) and control time (2:24) than Myktybek Orolbai did in their up-and-down war. Orolbai, of course, is now destroying welterweight.
It’s at striking distance where Rebecki’s efficiency (+0.52 SSR) hasn’t even been poor, but he wears damage. Dawson’s pillow fists have also come with a 44% striking defense and a seemingly glass chin, so it’s pretty fair to say at this stage that Dawson needs takedowns and control time to win fights.
The American Top Team product is certainly skilled enough to get the job done. He attempts 8.69 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed a decent clip of them (39%), considering opponents know it’s coming. He really tried to prolong the immediate wrestling shots on Manuel Torres in his last fight — but paid dearly for it.
We saw how dominant Dawson can be on the ground in his fight with Rafa Garcia, but Garcia’s lack of power had him lacking the “get out of jail free” card. Rebecki’s 0.87% knockdown rate (KD%) is above the divisional average and could be higher if he hadn’t fought stalwarts like Orolbai and Ludovit Klein.
You don’t typically see fighters who have lost three of four bouts this short of an underdog to accomplished fighters like Dawson (11-2), but stylistically, it really doesn’t get much better for the power puncher with grappling chops.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Unfortunately, Rebecki’s quick knockout prop is a public darling. As the week progressed, I do see the model’s point about someone catching a sub at UFC 328, and Rebecki probably has a power guillotine as Dawson avoids distance like the play. I believe in Rebecki (+150) to get his hand raised, like in the Orolbai fight, with a small sprinkle on R1 (+500).
Joel Alvarez vs. Yaroslav Amosov
Welterweight (170 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Alvarez | Eligible |
| Amosov | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
It’s not that Joel Alvarez is undersized for welterweight. I just don’t think he’s particularly special.
Alvarez’s 170-pound debut was the opposite of special in Rio, holding Vicente Luque for over six minutes during a fight in which most believed Luque was once again looking for the door. That marked Alvarez’s first decision win as a pro, which I don’t take lightly after one of the most significant weight jumps in the sport.
The Spaniard was as “weight bully” as a weight bully gets, posing as a 6’3″ lightweight with a nasty submission squeeze (1.1 attempts per 15 minutes). Without those sorts of physical equalizers, he’s a good striker (+1.71 SSR) with really problematic takedown D — especially entering a matchup with Yaroslav Amosov.
Amosov’s shiny 29-1 pro record includes wins over Douglas Lima and Logan Storley in Bellator. Jason Jackson’s athletic takedown defense and power were the only thing to have gotten the best of him in that promotion. The Ukrainian is an elite grappling technician, as Neil Magny found out the hard way via a first-round tapout.
Jackson’s formula will be tough for Alvarez, given that he didn’t have the power to make Luque quit nor has anywhere near Jackson’s takedown D. I entered my study for this fight with no strong opinion but left it realizing the moderate underdog odds on “El Fenomeno” exist for a reason.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I just can’t see Alvarez getting a submission from bottom on such an accomplished foe, so if Amosov’s chin woes from the Jackson fight don’t show up, I think this is one-way traffic on the mat where the Spaniard likely has the submission defense to survive.
Ateba Gautier vs. Ozzy Diaz
Middleweight (185 pounds) – Featured Prelim
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Gautier | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
| Diaz | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
I should spend very little breath on this fight.
Ateba Gautier is one of the UFC’s chosen ones, and they’re not happy about his last performance. The Cameroonian knockout artist could have arguably lost to Andrey Pulyaev (1-2 UFC) his last time out, but two extremely timely drops (stumbles?) justified a 29-28 decision win that kept Gautier undefeated in UFC.
Gautier continues to soar through a ridiculously poor level of competition. His five UFC-affiliated opponents have a combined 5-12 record across the UFC and DWCS. It’s embarrassing for someone who is seen as a high-level prospect, but he’s yet to be put in any sort of grappling danger or have faced any sort of power threat.
All of this aside, Ozzy Diaz presents no legitimate threat as a step back from even Pulyaev. This was Gautier’s initial matchup in October 2025 before he slumped Tre’ston Vines in a matter of minutes. The former light heavyweight is an improving boxer at Kings MMA, but he’s especially slow and needed Djorden Santos’ lack of pop in his shots to survive to the end of a shocking decision win last March.
The one thing you can count on Gautier for is being extremely fast for the level of power he carries. Diaz is the exact opposite of a building storm with longer combinations but lacking athleticism, grappling danger, and hand speed. This will not be remotely competitive — but should set up the fade opportunity of a lifetime for Gautier soon.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: This is a sacrifice on Paramount+. Diaz’s poor hand speed is a nightmare for Gautier’s insanely fast ability to close the distance. Finding R1 (T)KO at -135 earlier this week was a gift, but I can’t blame anyone reading this for parlaying it up to -200. The overall (T)KO prop is as close to that “L” word I almost never use; Diaz doesn’t even carry power worth hedging on just the total.
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