UFC Vegas 115 Betting Primer: Fight Predictions, Props, and Model Results for Moicano vs. Duncan

UFC Vegas 115 starts with perhaps the most random undercard in the promotion’s history, and it’s capped by a lightweight civil war among American Top Team standouts. Who — if anyone — will make Saturday’s card a banger?

If you’re new here, this is my betting primer. I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’m going to be right; I just want to get it right, and I’ll give you my best effort every week.

I invite you to join the fan club of Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed it or would rather read, I’ve got you.

From a betting perspective, let’s preview UFC Vegas 115: Moicano vs. Duncan, taking place at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.

UFC Vegas 115: Moicano vs. Duncan Betting Picks and Props

 

Dakota Hope vs. Kai Kamaka III

Lightweight (155 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Hope	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Kamaka III	Eligible

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This one has shades of Lance Gibson Jr.’s debut. Why is Kai Kamaka III randomly back on five days’ notice to welcome a fellow newcomer? Your guess is as good as mine.

Regardless, “The Fighting Hawaiian” was just 26 when the UFC handed him his walking papers following losses to Jonathan Pearce, T.J. Brown, and Danny Chavez — none of which aged particularly gracefully. The Xtreme Couture product grew up in Bellator and PFL, taking Brendan Loughnane to a split decision in his one full 2024 season with North America’s second-largest promotion.

Considering that’s the case, Kamaka III’s metrics as an MMA infant were pretty solid. Similar to Danny Silva in London two weeks ago, Kamaka’s -0.33 striking success rate (SSR) doesn’t tell the full story; above-average striking accuracy (57%) and defense (55%) do. His takedown defense (52%) has surely improved after six years at one of the best gyms in the world.

I don’t have much on Dakota Hope, who went to a decision in his only LFA start against Jeremy Henry and his 9-8 pro record. He earned a quick KO in Fury FC to get this opportunity. Hope’s hands and power seem like huge pluses at a regional level, but I have no tangible measuring stick to see how they hold up in the UFC.

Kamaka III’s most signature attributes are his pace and durability. If an early bonk doesn’t come from Hope, he’s got significantly more experience in longer fights and probably has the grappling upside of these two. Hope seems like he’d have been a better fit on Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS).

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I played small darts at Kamaka R2 (+1600) and R3 (+2000) just because Hope’s archetype tends to gas late in fights, but Kai isn’t really a devastating puncher or submission threat. This is most likely a decision if he wins.

Dione Barbosa vs. Melissa Gatto

Women’s Flyweight (125 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Barbosa	49.81%	22.93%	0.35%	22.58%	26.88%
Gatto	50.19%	18.83%	9.36%	9.47%	31.36%

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This opening line shows how much activity can influence betting markets.

Dione Barbosa last fought in August and was arguably robbed by Karine Silva. That’d have marked a third win in four UFC starts for “The Witch”, but really one of them — a quick submission of very submittable Diana Belbita — had any sort of mark or impact. Billed as a grappling ace on the regional scene, she’s sort of been a well-rounded decision machine.

I love this matchup for both fighters against Melissa Gatto, who was a presumptive winner in a late-notice matchup up in weight with Tamires Vidal. Gatto’s experience against Tracy Cortez, Ariane da Silva, and other former ranked 125ers was always a handful for a fringe-of-the-roster bantamweight. Gatto’s one true setback to Cortez came from ceding control for 7:54.

Barbosa absolutely could get her wrestling going in a similar fashion when she attempts 5.31 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands a decent clip of them (42%), but Gatto has to be a pronounced favorite at distance as her three-inch reach edge comes with a +0.94 SSR to Barbosa’s -0.18.

Moreover, Gatto has three finishes in four UFC wins — all coming between the 10- and 11-minute mark in the fight. Barbosa lost Round 3 on every card to Silva, a notorious gasser. That’s a horrible look when the Brazilian underdog typically builds as the fight progresses.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Barbosa lives in tight margins, and I’ll take the striker over the grappler in that sort of fight. Gatto has made a living off of late finishes, but I’ll play her decision prop (+220) with Barbosa’s striking D having been strong to this point.

Azamat Bekoev vs. Tresean Gore

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Bekoev	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Gore	Eligible

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If you like poor distance striking, this fight has you covered.

A majority of Azamat Bekoev‘s -3.59 SSR came at the hands of Yousri Belgaroui, and fans will likely give him a pass, given another dominant Belgaroui performance this past weekend. However, that was also the first legitimate standup affair of Bekoev’s UFC tenure, chinning Zach Reese and Ryan Loder in consecutive fights prior to that one. I’ve had reservations about the Russian since he entered the UFC, given the regional measuring stick being a split-decision win over Dylan Budka (0-3 in the UFC).

At the very least, this is an interesting test on paper when an athletic middleweight, Tresean Gore, brings a well-tested 88% takedown D and a nasty guillotine choke to the equation, which will force this fight to play out at distance. Of course, Gore’s own limitations there (-4.72 SSR) are present, but he has at least shown an insane amount of toughness to power through beatings from Rodolfo Vieira and Marco Tulio that rolled downhill.

If this fight were a pick ’em, you’d certainly favor Bekoev’s demonstrable knockout power and potential wrestling upside of these two, but if this plays out in an ugly brawl at distance, I’m not sure the favorite is the harder hitter, and Gore’ 40% striking D is at least significantly higher than Bekoev’s (31%).

This line is giving Bekoev a pass for the Belgaroui result, but the Budka result also looms. I just don’t think it’s wise to lay -650 with this guy quite yet.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I played Gore’s point spread at +200. This fight is, oddly, favored to start Round 3, and if the one thing the American has done well — defend takedowns — holds, he absolutely can win rounds in this fight.

Alice Pereira vs. Hailey Cowan

Women’s Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Pereira	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Cowan	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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This card is absolutely jam-packed with “non-starters” — or fighters with zero redeeming qualities. Some might consider Tresean Gore that, too.

Hailey Cowan hasn’t given me a reason for hope in two appearances yet. Jamey-Lyn Horth now fights at flyweight, and Nora Cornolle has lost consecutive bouts since submitting Cowan in the second round. Her 33% striking D is horrible and, frankly, she’s fortunate not to have run into a more powerful fighter at women’s 135 with it. Being just the second submission victim of Cornolle’s pro career isn’t ideal, either.

Now at 34, Cowan’s last win was a split decision in 2022. It’s “sink or swim” for Alice Pereira off a tough-luck debut, where the 20-year-old’s inexperience showed against Mexico’s Montse Rendon at Noche UFC. Rendon has excellent striking (57%) and takedown (85%) defense, and “Golden Girl” couldn’t crack the code.

Still, Pereira — not related to “Poatan” — entered UFC with much fanfare, and she actually stopped five of six regional opponents in Round 1. She’s huge for this weight class. Rendon’s defensive capabilities were brutal in the first matchup, but Cowan’s leaky defense could be primed to turn her career back in the right direction.

This line would be at least -200 if Pereira simply won the tight decision in her debut, so there’s value because the cards didn’t fall her way last September.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I just genuinely don’t know what hope or skill that Cowan backers are turning to at UFC Vegas 115. Pereira had a tough defensive puzzle in her debut, but Hailey has been a punching bag. I think a finish (+420) is extremely live.

Lando Vannata vs. Darrius Flowers

Lightweight (155 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Vannata	72.55%	41.74%	19.53%	22.21%	30.81%
Flowers	27.45%	3.60%	2.81%	0.79%	23.85%

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Ideally, I wouldn’t model Darrius Flowers‘ sample at just under 35 octagon minutes, but I was desperate this week. There are only four model-eligible fights total.

That’s especially true given that Lando Vannata hasn’t fought since April 2023, and some of his career came at 145 pounds. There’s a real chance a washed shell of “Groovy” shows up at the Apex for a check, but I think that’s baked into this line when considering Flowers has had precisely zero success doing anything in three UFC starts so far.

Vannata is riding a rare 3-6-2 stretch with a couple of draws, and 10 of his last 12 fights have gone to a decision. In a vacuum, Vannata’s last loss to Daniel Zellhuber aged like milk, but it’s all relative when it comes to a pending date with Flowers.

“Beast Mode” has been anything but, posting a -2.42 SSR against three UFC foes — the last of which, Evan Elder, submitted him in Round 2 to cap a dominant effort. Flowers’ knockout power regionally has yet to show up without a single knockdown against Michael Johnson or Jake Matthews — two of the most fragile guys on the roster.

At the very least, Vannata hasn’t been (T)KO’d in UFC. Unless he’s really regressed in this layoff, that durability alone should carry him past Flowers. He’s the more accurate, voluminous striker, and the grappling — which has been the veteran’s undoing at times — is absolutely slanted in Vannata’s direction.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Sitting extremely close to all of Vannata’s props in the model, his submission (+370) stands out at cost. That would track with Flowers being a tough guy who has been easy to tap thus far.

Alessandro Costa vs. Stewart Nicoll

Flyweight (125 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Costa	Eligible
Nicoll	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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Especially at flyweight, you see these regional do-it-all savants that can exploit guys who aren’t well-rounded. Stewart Nicoll‘s pre-UFC footage was awesome, but it just hasn’t translated.

Nicoll was (forgivably) caught in Jesus Aguilar’s anaconda-like guillotine choke, but getting dismantled by Lucas Rocha (-70 striking differential) in a fight where he wasn’t able to get his grappling going felt like the beginning of the end for his UFC career. Nicoll has yet another frighteningly poor SSR (-3.69) on this dismal Apex card.

Alessandro Costa has had enough good moments in UFC to believe he’ll find a way past the Aussie. Costa was shell-shocked by a newcomer, Alden Coria, at Noche UFC as a -400 favorite, but Coria seems primed for the rankings at this stage. Previously, the Brazilian lost fights inside the rankings against Amir Albazi and Steve Erceg, but he’s also stopped Kevin Borjas and Jimmy Flick — two staples on the roster.

Entering UFC 305 in Perth, Nicoll was an 8-0 fighter that UFC signed as a dart despite not even competing in HEX Fighting or any other higher-level Australian regional promotions. Simply, I think the dart missed the target. I could not tell you his path to victory at UFC Vegas 115, given that “Nono” Costa has been hard to take down with solid striking defense (57%).

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I was stunned on Wednesday’s show when seeing the totals for this fight. Nicoll took a beating against Rocha, and Costa might be even more harmless. I like the fight to start Round 3 (-135) and Costa’s R3/DEC (+125) prop.

Guilherme Pat vs. Thomas Peterson

Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Pat	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Peterson	Eligible

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Thomas Peterson is boring. I like boring. There’s value in boring.

The Midwest wrestler has gotten chinned in each of his last two losses, and it’s probably a ceiling that will keep him from the top 15. However, there’s undeniable value in a guy who can attempt 7.42 takedowns per 15 minutes — at heavyweight — and land exactly 50% of those attempts. He’s averaged a sneaky 0.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes despite never securing one with the promotion, too.

Petersen is going to rinse several matchups on that basis — but Vitor Petrino wasn’t one of them. I think he’s a fun opponent for guys like Tai Tuivasa or Derrick Lewis, who have the equalizer. Guilherme Pat isn’t really that type of matchup, though.

Pat is still a question mark after a weird, sloppy fight with AJ Frye in both’s respective UFC debuts. The Brazilian looks the part in terms of conditioning, but the tape — including the Frye bout — displays a technical striker who prefers to sit back, teep, jab, and let his opponent lead. That becomes a huge issue in a matchup like this where Petersen’s advances lead to takedown entries, and the regional grappling tape on Pat is very, very poor.

Sure, it’s heavyweight. Pat’s a big guy who could conceivably put Peterson’s lights out. However, if I’m playing the percentages, I’ve seen Peterson dominate guys with more power than Pat. He even went to a Round 3 against Waldo Cortes-Acosta in LFA. Outside of an “equalizer”, these are two MMA fighters on entirely different planes of experience and well-rounded ability.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Sometimes you get a hunch, and I have a hunch that Pat is a BJJ white belt with not nearly enough power or experience to survive a bad position against the veteran. I like Petersen to finish (+320), and a submission (+700) wouldn’t be crazy after we saw him find a keylock on DWCS.

Jose Delano vs. Robert Ruchala

Featherweight (145 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Delano	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Ruchala	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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Dana White might like finishes on his DWCS cards, but I like decisions. It actually tells me about a fighter’s pace and efficiency in a decent sample before I have to bet them on the big stage.

Jose Delano had arguably the most dominant decision win of Season 9. He mopped Manuel Exposito for a +108 striking differential in 15 minutes and might have found a finish if he ever truly pushed for it. Even allowing 2 of 5 takedown attempts to land, Exposito scored just 39 seconds in control, showcasing the Brazilian’s get-up game.

I’m sure UFC would rather promote Delano, the show alum, than Robert Ruchala, who makes a second trip to the cage after having saved William Gomis’ bid in Paris last fall. He predictably got sucked into the Gomisverse — a place where offense and action go to die — in his debut.

Gomis’ historical durability and defensive prowess make it hard to gauge how dangerous Poland’s “Faker” actually is, but a 45.5% decision rate before reaching the UFC suggests he’s indeed not very dangerous. I don’t believe that’s the type of matchup that I would be concerned about for Delano, whose only LFA loss in seven tries came via a body shot from Gabriel Santos (2-2 UFC).

Though this fight is -126 to go the distance and might not be riveting, Delano is the more skilled fighter than you have to like to get his hand raised.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I changed my mind in the middle of the week on this fight’s total — but not its winner. Ruchala wades through damage, so it’s tough to see Delano stopping him and how it would happen. This fight, being only -125 to go the distance, seems fair in the post-USDA landscape of MMA.

Tommy “Gun” McMillen vs. Manolo Zecchini

Featherweight (145 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
McMillen	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Zecchini	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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The worst take you’ll hear all week about Tommy McMillen‘s DWCS bid is that it was an awful performance. Especially for his archetype, he was given a brutal matchup and still found a way out the other side.

McMillen was hurt badly and subsequently forced to survive a submission attempt early, but he still outlanded Mgoyan with a +28 striking differential and excellent striking (55%) and takedown (83%) defense. I cringed opening his box score, remembering the dire moments, but I think it got lost how much of that fight was successful for him to earn the nod. It was no robbery.

Luckily for him, the UFC is doing a friend of Sean O’Malley a favor this weekend. Manolo Zecchini didn’t have a pulse in a short-notice debut against Morgan Charriere back in 2023. He landed just 21% of his significant strikes. A thumb through Zecchini’s regional competition shows just four winning records.

Sure, this betting line has probably ballooned beyond the point where the probability that Zecchini has substantially improved in nearly two-and-a-half years off isn’t being given enough credit, but we saw the treatment O’Malley got as a splashy striker with tremendous heart, a cool nickname, and a DWCS fight to remember.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: McMillen’s R1 prop is only +115, but Zecchini is the bottom of the barrel. The public narrative here is that “Tommy Gun” is only favored for being friends with O’Malley, but it has more to do with an inexperienced opponent who got destroyed by an average featherweight in his debut.

Ethyn Ewing vs. Rafael Estevam

Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Ewing	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Estevam	Eligible

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We’ll see if one of 2025’s biggest upsets indeed birthed a star in Ethyn Ewing.

Ewing was a +360 underdog opposite Malcolm Wellmaker at Madison Square Garden last fall, but he looked like a dominant favorite. He outlanded the powerful Wellmaker with great striking accuracy (52%) and added three takedowns. A skeptic could say that was a reveal of the former top prospect’s overreliance on his right hand, but Ewing’s lateral footwork and shot selection were on point.

His 100% takedown defense in that fight will have to be if he’s going to sneak by Rafael Estevam. Estevam finally moves up to the bantamweight division after endless weight issues, and I’ve got fight skill questions, too. As a size bully, Estevam needed every bit of his wrestling and physicality to win his last two fights. Otherwise, he was destroyed at striking distance by Charles Johnson and Jesus Aguilar while fighting Felipe Bunes to a push.

Though Estevam’s cardio is likely improved without the weight cut, Ewing seems to be a brutal first draw at 135 pounds, given how he imposed his will on a huge bantamweight, Wellmaker, in his debut. The Brazilian will likely be on the smaller side here at 135 pounds, and I just hate his archetype in that case.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Perhaps I’m drinking the Kool-Aid, but Ewing’s footwork and shot selection were so great in his debut, and now he’s facing a blown-up flyweight with poor striking D (47%). I played Ewing’s late knockout props to keep the “Rocky” story rolling at UFC Vegas 115.

Abdul Rakhman Yakyhaev vs. Brendson Ribeiro

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Yakhyaev	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Ribeiro	Eligible

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If there are fight handicaps that give me indigestion, it’s these.

Inarguably, Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev‘s first two matchups have been jokes. He’s been at least a -1000 favorite in both of them, and he’s encroaching -2500 in this fight with Brendson Ribeiro. There is absolutely no blood to squeeze from a turnip like that — especially when Ribeiro is probably woefully underrated as the Chechnyan fighter’s toughest opponent to date.

To the Brazilian’s credit, he’s said “no” to precisely no one. He’s already fought two ranked light heavyweights, and Oumar Sy — last month’s disappointment notwithstanding — would probably get votes as one of the top 15 on the roster. Ribeiro’s win over Diyar Nurgozhay, where he won the distance battle before securing a submission, aged particularly well in light of Nurgozhay’s recent triumph.

Yakhyaev’s trajectory is undoubtedly still upward. You can only fight those who they schedule. While I’m not calling an upset by any means, you can get plus-money payouts simply by pondering if Ribeiro can survive five minutes — something Yakhyaev hasn’t allowed his opponent to do in five straight fights. I think it’s at least worth consideration if this step up in competition is the slightest hurdle.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I love a good five-minute sweat, and this one will be a drenching. I just think it’s possible that Yakhyaev lands an early takedown, and Ribeiro has the skills to survive in his guard. For a small sprinkle, I played Yakhyaev & Fight Starts R2 (+340) plus late-finish darts.

Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci

Women’s Strawweight (115 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Jandiroba	58.70%	32.27%	7.20%	25.07%	26.43%
Ricci	41.30%	5.31%	1.54%	3.77%	35.99%

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The line movement here has been fascinating. Virna Jandiroba was a +100 underdog on Sunday. This fight was a pick ’em on Tuesday. She’s now -128 on Friday.

Usually, sharp money isn’t moving toward a 37-year-old fighter coming off a championship loss, but Virna’s effort was not terrible. She landed nine takedowns and only posted a -6 distance striking differential. At times, letting Mackenzie Dern back to her feet by her own volition was a choice that likely cost her the bout — and UFC gold.

How is Jandiroba the favorite? Well, she’s established levels over a lot of younger, up-and-coming strawweights like Tabatha Ricci. She nearly found a third-round finish of Loopy Godinez, and she did submit Amanda Lemos after four official attempts when Zhang Weili and Gillian Robertson were unable to do so.

Ricci’s physicality would be the difference in her corner. Overall, she’s used her strong clinch and wrestling to best others, struggling to a -1.01 SSR otherwise. “Baby Shark” has just one UFC submission attempt but secured it for a finish against Jessica Penne.

The model’s verdict seems dead-on with where this line ended up on Friday, but the key differentiator is the submission danger. “Carcara” has 11 submission attempts in her last nine fights, but just one secured a finish. That’s an extremely high-volume attack for this division, yet there’s a smarter way to play the line.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I like the model result for this fight to end by submission (+420). Ricci’s outcome is free, so you might as well toss it in there. Jandiroba has consistently established a level of BJJ dominance against everyone except Mack Dern.

Renato “Money” Moicano vs. Chris Duncan

Five-Round Main Event — Lightweight (155 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Moicano	46.31%	24.20%	5.81%	18.39%	22.11%
Duncan	53.69%	30.29%	15.51%	14.78%	23.40%

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I think the American Top Team connection Renato Moicano and Chris Duncan share will have a substantial impact on how this fight looks.

Duncan admitted that to Home of Fight’s Jake Noecker on Wednesday. Of course, that’s just a natural takeaway from seeing what “Money” Moicano did to top-five contender Benoit Saint Denis and Jalin Turner on the ground before a pair of nightmare matchups. He faced Islam Makhachev on short notice before a date with Beneil Dariush, where his strong start faded. That “fading” inspired him to step away from Home of Fight obligations, by the way.

Moicano’s primary obstacle at UFC Vegas 115 will be age (36) entering a five-rounder with a younger, hungry contender. The Brazilian’s standup has notably improved, posting a +0.60 SSR with tremendous striking defense (62%). Moicano’s extremely brief distance exchanges with Makhachev went his way, which was unthinkable five years ago.

It’ll be interesting to see Duncan’s approach after what has been, ostensibly, four chaotic brawls. He survived the Terrance McKinney storm, robbed Mateusz Rebecki despite a -22 striking differential, and escaped Bolaji Oki’s early knockdown via guillotine in this stretch. The one clean win came against a fighter (Jordan Vucenic) who never had a good moment in UFC.

While I do think Duncan is a well-rounded, durable combatant, I also don’t think he should be anywhere north of -125 to win this fight. Moicano’s grappling into his 50% takedown D is a first concern — even if “Money” might not have the gas to take that path all fight. At distance, I actually think Moicano wins, too.

I’ve heard a chorus of boos picking against Moicano because of my model at Home of Fight, but it also gives me credibility to do it here when many are counting him out. You can make Duncan a slight favorite on early knockout equity as the prime athlete with power, but if this fight is extended in any way, Moicano can absolutely win it. It could indeed be “easy money” if a more focused training camp did, in fact, shore up the cardio issues.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: If this is indeed a “good friends” sparring match, Moicano is the better striker on paper. The fight is -120 to start Round 3, and Moicano’s decision prop is +800. Other than a Moicano sub, there’s just not a lot of obvious finishing danger from two guys who know each other’s strategy on the ground.