
Expert Picks UFC 311 | HOF
UFC 311: Makhachev vs Tsarukyan
UFC 311 promises to be an electrifying start to the 2025 PPV calendar, featuring two explosive championship contests at the brand-new Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California on January 18th.
The lightweight championship main event pits reigning champion Islam Makhachev against his longtime rival Arman Tsarukyan in a highly anticipated rematch. Nearly six years after their first encounter, Tsarukyan enters with newfound confidence after impressive victories over Beneil Dariush and Charles Oliveira, hoping to dethrone the dominant Makhachev.
In the co-main event, bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili will make his first title defense against the unbeaten Umar Nurmagomedov, adding another compelling championship narrative to the evening.
The preliminary card is equally stacked, featuring a thrilling light heavyweight matchup between former champions Jiří Procházka and Jamahal Hill, both seeking to re-enter title contention after losses to current champion Alex Pereira. The lightweight clash between Renato Moicano and Beneil Dariush promises fireworks, while the middleweight bout between Kevin Holland and Reinier de Ridder offers a fascinating stylistic clash.
Islam vs Arman | HOF
Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan
- HayJive – Islam Makhachev
“Do I think anyone beats Islam at 155? No. Do I think Arman should be a +300 underdog to anyone? Also no. I expect this to be a high-level fight with thin margins to win rounds, but I do see Islam’s experience in the moment to prevail and pull off a decision victory.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Islam Makhachev
“Islam has fought Arman before and beat him convincingly. Arman has got better but so has Islam, and we’ve seen Arman struggle with other grapplers like Mateus Gamrot. Islam’s striking has gotten great and he should be able to mix his full game in here to grab another win.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Islam Makhachev
“A lot of talk is focused on how much Arman has improved since his debut, which is very much true, however so has Islam. Islam’s striking is more dynamic than before and as he developed, his striking now is a primary tool in his arsenal, more than something to use if his wrestling doesn’t work. In this case, he can leave Arman uneasy with his striking, while using his grappling to get the fight to the ground. I expect some back and forths and close rounds, with Islam making the slight differences and securing the unanimous decision win.”
- Austin Swaim – Arman Tsarukyan
“This should be an elite mirror match between two 155ers that have separated themselves, but I’ll pick the younger, hungrier challenger to pull the upset. My model’s gap between these two isn’t close to the betting line.”
- The Fight Analyst – Islam Makhachev
“Islam Makhachev has been my cash cow for a long time now and there is no fading him even against his toughest adversary. While Tsarukyan is better than their first fight, his only signature victory was a split decision against Charles Oliveira who almost finished him on multiple occasions. Tsarukyan is a great grappler and has progressed as a striker but Makhachev is still better in both areas. Expect Makhachev to be the one winning minutes on the feet and then utilize his counter-grappling to reverse positions on the cage and on the mat to control the fight and secure his third title defense and solidify himself as the lightweight GOAT.”
Merab vs Umar | HOF
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
- HayJive – Umar Nurmagomedov
“Umar may not have the UFC experience of a seasoned #1 contender, but let’s not forget he’s had the experience of training with the Khabib camp his entire life. I think Merab is being undervalued by the oddsmakers here, but that could be due to the fact his last 4 wins don’t have near the grappling abilities that Umar does. I see Umar capitalizing on the all-out offense from Merab and finding a finish here.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Umar Nurmagomedov
“Merab is great, but when the wrestling doesn’t work I’m not sure what Merab has left at this level. Umar has good defense, but his striking is great and he has the submission game to threaten Merab at all times.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Umar Nurmagomedov
“The breakdown for this fight is simple, but it is easier said than done for a Merab fight. Umar is the most skilled fighter in all attributes. He’s got better control, better striking, better submission grappling, better wrestling efficiency. Skill-wise there is no doubt. Merab’s clinch game won’t work against a wrestling-based fighter like Umar, who comprehends the distance while using long-ranged striking to his advantage. We have seen Merab get caught, and I feel this will be the case.”
- Austin Swaim – Merab Dvalishvili
“Merab has shut down more technically sound foes like Aldo and Yan with his unnatural cardio and pace. Why not another? Umar’s effort against Sandhagen was pretty human. Have him modeled at +135.”
- The Fight Analyst – Umar Nurmagomedov
“I stated once Umar Nurmagomedov was signed to the UFC he would be the next champion and I stand by that sentiment. He is arguably better in every aspect of the fight game other than Merab Dvalishvili’s pace and pure cardio. While Dvalishvili has great wrestling technique we’ve seen him struggle to find takedowns in the past (Aldo/Yan) and resulted in just holding against the fence. This will not be an avenue for victory against Nurmagomedov which would mean more prolonged moments on the feet where Nurmagomedov is leaps and bounds better as he goes in there and outworks Dvalishvili for the unanimous decision to become the new bantamweight champion.”
Jiri vs Jamahal | HOF
Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill
- HayJive – Jamahal Hill
“Majority of the MMA world has written off Jamahal. 2 injuries and a KO loss since the last time he held the belt, but in that same time, Jiri has been knocked out twice. I think Jamahal is a better striker, with better durability, in a fight that’s gonna be a stand-up battle I’ll take Jamahal Hill.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Jamahal Hill
“Hill catches slack in the media, but people forget how good he really is (just look at the Glover fight). Jiri is hittable, gets hurt often, and Hill has big power. I think he has the skills to land more/bigger shots against Jiri.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Jiri Prochazka
“Jiri Prochazka is a kill-or-be-killed fighter, while Jamahal Hill is a bit more technical. We know Jiri can survive heavy shots, and I believe his versatility will catch Hill by surprise. Jiri can be efficient with kicks and weird angles, and while he could get caught, when he catches Hill, I’m unsure Hill will or can survive.”
- Austin Swaim – Jiri Prochazka
“Minimal confidence in this fight, but Jamahal’s power and ability to withstand others’ is probably inflated by his previous level of competition. I trust Jiri’s durability slightly more when the grappling upside is also his.”
- The Fight Analyst – Jamahal Hill
“Jamahal Hill is one of the most outspoken fighters on the UFC roster which is why many overlook his skills. Before the Pereira knockout, Hill has shown sound defense and devastating punching power. While Prochazka is exceptionally dangerous, his defensive lapses will cause him issues in this fight as Hill lands a thunderous shot putting him away inside two rounds.”
Renato vs Beneil | HOF
Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano
- HayJive – Renato Moicano
“If Dariush has anything left in the tank, he will be able to put up a tough fight for Moicano. However, momentum is a big thing in the game, and it’s all with the Money Man here. I see Moicano finding a finish here either by TKO or Sub.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Renato Moicano
“Beneil Dariush has voiced his desire to retire soon and he’s taken a lot of damage in his last few fights. Moicano is on a mission, and I think he wants this more and will have the skills to win this fight.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Renato Moicano
“Moicano and Dairush are in completely opposite positions in their careers. Moicano has won two fights by KO in a row, while Dariush has lost two by KO. While Renato has fought three times in 2024, Benny hasn’t. Benny’s speed just seems to have left while Moicano’s striking seems to have blossomed. I can see Renato laying on the pressuring, leading to a R3 KO.”
- Austin Swaim – Beneil Dariush
“Money Moicano’s lack of punching power opposite Benny’s chin should make this a grappling fan’s delight. This fight will be close with few scorable moments, leaving a lot of betting value on the ‘dog.”
- The Fight Analyst – Renato Moicano
“While I do expect this fight to be relatively close, it will be Moicano who will have the bigger moments in this fight. As Dariush starts to fade as the fight progresses, Moicano will pick up a head of steam drowning Dariush in the latter moments of the fight to extend his winning streak putting him in a prime position for a potential No. 1 contender fight next.”
Holland vs de Ridder | HOF
Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder
- HayJive – Reinier de Ridder
“There’s no way I can trust Kevin Holland against a true 185-pound fighter with a legit ground game. Holland could easily KO De Ridder on the feet, but he is a true welterweight who’s coming off a rib injury just 3 months ago. I’ll take De Ridder here to get takedowns and win this one.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Kevin Holland
“Holland has one job here and that’s to keep the fight standing. RDR doesn’t have great wrestling and I think he will eat big shots trying to close the distance.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Kevin Holland
“While Kevin does have an issue with defensive wrestling at times, bar injury, he’s done well with primarily BJJ grapplers with no advanced offensive grappling. DeRidder show-cased limited striking defense and seen that every fight starts on the feet, I find it hard seeing him survive Holland’s striking, primarily earlier on.”
- Austin Swaim – Reinier de Ridder
“Kevin Holland against a 185-pound grappler hasn’t worked in four tries. You could pray he finds the knockout here but hasn’t dropped a middleweight since 2016. de Ridder could already be a top-five grappler in the division and should dominate if his chin holds.”
- The Fight Analyst – Reinier de Ridder
“This is as binary of a fight as one could possibly be. Holland wins this fight on the feet and de Ridder wins this fight on the mat. Given Holland’s struggles with grapplers at 185 and his lack of fight IQ, give me de Ridder to utilize his grappling to submit Holland to obtain the biggest victory in his UFC career.”
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