HOF | UFC 312 Picks
UFC 312
This weekend’s UFC 312 in Sydney (Sat., Feb. 8th, 10pm EST on ESPN+ & PPV) delivers high-stakes drama with two title fights and a loaded card featuring wild matchups.
In the main event, middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis (22-2) rematches Sean Strickland (29-6) in a grudge clash for the 185-pound belt. Their first meeting at UFC 297 in 2024 saw Du Plessis edge a razor-thin split decision to dethrone Strickland. The challenger enters with renewed focus, controversially adding former foe Alex Pereira to his corner—a strategic move to sharpen his striking and takedown defense. Du Plessis, meanwhile, aims to solidify his reign after defending against Israel Adesanya last August. Expect a tactical war: Strickland’s relentless pressure vs. Du Plessis’ explosive power and grappling.
The co-main event features strawweight queen Zhang Weili (25-3) against undefeated wrestler Tatiana Suarez (10-0). Zhang, a dynamic striker with improved grappling, seeks her third title defense, but Suarez’s elite wrestling and submission threat (7 career subs) pose a unique challenge. Suarez, returning from a 1.5-year layoff, predicts a submission victory, citing Zhang’s recent grappling-heavy approach. This stylistic clash—Zhang’s versatility vs. Suarez’s relentless chain wrestling—could redefine the division.
Elsewhere, heavyweight finishers Justin Tafa and Tallison Teixeira collide in a guaranteed slugfest, while Aussie fan favorite Jimmy Crute faces rising Brazilian Rodolfo Bellato in a light heavyweight scrap. With six of the main card fighters ranked in the UFC’s top 15, UFC 312 balances title implications with explosive action.
Du Plessis-Strickland 2 could settle their rivalry decisively, while Suarez’s quest to dethrone Zhang tests whether wrestling still reigns supreme in women’s MMA. Tune in for a card packed with high-level violence and career-defining moments. With that said, The Home of Fight Experts are here to help put cash into your pockets at UFC 312, so let’s see what they have cooking for this weekend!
Du Plessis vs Strickland | HOF
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland 2
- HayJive – Dricus Du Plessis
“Strickland can certainly win this fight, but that’s only if it plays out similar to the last. There’s a lot more adjustments DDP can make in this fight to make a win more definitive and I think he does make those adjustments. I’ll take DDP by KO or Decision.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Dricus Du Plessis
“DDP is constantly improving and surprising everyone with his unorthodox style, cardio, power, and will to keep the belt. Sean will always be a tough task for anyone, but if DDP invests in the leg kicks and body he should start to shine in rounds 3-5.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Sean Strickland
“While DDP’s efforts to secure a controversial split decision were massive, Sean’s efforts were causal and effective, despite being simple. Sean’s changes to win are quite easy, merely increasing the output and avoiding easier entries. With the exception of a cut, there’s an argument for his win against DDP in the first one.”
- Austin Swaim – Dricus Du Plessis
“Strickland’s mustachioed buffonery this week only adds to the feeling that Du Plessis — finishing Whittaker and Izzy — is fully capable of a more emphatic statement than he produced off an injury last January. Sean’s maximum upside here is to outpoint him via split decision.”
- The Fight Analyst – Dricus Du Plessis
“Dricus showed the best version of himself when he went in there to successfully defend his title by finishing the former champion Israel Adesanya. While that doesn’t look great in hindsight now, his finishing upside will help him in the rematch with Sean who will be reliant on high output and point fighting for a win. Expect a more dominant victory this time around for Dricus as he finishes Sean in the championship rounds.”
Suarez vs Zhang | HOF
Zhang Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez
- HayJive – Tatiana Suarez
“Weili has finally met her match for the first time in awhile. Suarez has been the future champion for a very long time, now finally getting her opportunity, I expect her to show out. Give me Suarez by submission.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Tatiana Suarez
“It’s time for new blood and Suarez has what it takes. We’ve seen Weili get taken down and be content off her back and if that happens here Suarez will win many minutes along with plenty of submission opportunities. My hesitation? The championship rounds we’ve never seen from Suarez.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Zhang Weili
“The skill discrepancy on the feet is bigger than the skill discrepancy on the ground. While Suarez is a tremendous wrestler, her only recent win has been Andrade. Weili’s wrestling has been MASSIVELY improving for camps not involving wrestling and this one was primarily wrestling focused.”
- Austin Swaim – Zhang Weili
“Suarez’s favored status here is weighted too much into film matchup and too little into intangibles like five-round experience and well-roundedness. Considering the champ has never been subbed in UFC, I will take both of those arrows in her direction at ‘dog money.”
- The Fight Analyst – Tatiana Suarez
“Tatiana is finally healthy and getting the title shot that she’s been longing for. This certainly will be no easy fight but Weili has struggled with grappling in the past even letting Yan Xiaonan (who avgs 0.92 tds per 15m) land 3 of 3 takedowns which was the second most in her UFC career. It’s going to come down to if Suarez cardio can hold up with a grappling onslaught for 5 rounds and I believe it will as the reign of Tatiana Suarez is just about to start, AND NEW!”
Tafa vs Teixeira | UFC
Justin Tafa vs. Tallison Teixeira
- HayJive – Tallison Teixeira
“Tafa has shown to be pretty durable throughout his UFC career which is why I’m not super confident in Teixeira here. But overall I think Teixeira has more tools to win this fight, it just comes down to how and if he will use them. I’ll take Teixeira here.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Tallison Teixeira
“I’m hesitant to take UFC Debutant’s but the 7 inch height / 9 inch reach advantage is tough to ignore in what’s going to be a striking match. Texeira needs to avoid the power and strike at distance to get this thing done.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Tallison Teixeira
“Teixeira has a 100% R1 Finish Rate. He knows what it takes to get it done, and can even implement the wrestling game plan if he desires. His striking is crisp and he’s going to enjoy a 9 inch reach advantage over Tafa.”
- Austin Swaim – Tallison Teixeira
“I could see this going the distance, but Tafa’s never won outside the first two minutes, and Tallison’s long, rangy tools have insane upside to dominate against unskilled heavyweights. With minimal confidence, I don’t see the hype train ending.”
- The Fight Analyst – Tallison Teixeira
“It’s hard to have the utmost confidence in either of these two as they are both extremely hittable but the intangibles of Teixeira (7” height / 9” reach advantage) along with having some grappling chops gives him more ways to get the job done as he punishes his way to his first UFC victory.”
Crute vs Bellato | UFC
Jimmy Crute vs. Rodolfo Bellato
- HayJive – Rodolfo Bellato
“I don’t feel good about other side here, but clearly Crute will have the crowd and experience edge on his side. Ultimately I’m still going to side with Bellato as he has a lot more momentum coming in and has shown he’s willing to Step in to the fire in a dog fight.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Rodolfo Bellato
“Bellato may be the lesser skilled fighter here but Jimmy Crute is coming out of a premature retirement to take this fight. Bellato is tough, decent cardio, and has finishing instincts which could make a tough night for Crute if he’s not 100% committed to the game.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Rodolfo Bellato
“Crute’s sudden retirement and un-retirement is reason for concern. Striking defense of 44% while having the takedown option. That being said, I do not know if he’s going to be able to overpower or survive the early onslaught from Bellato’s end.”
- Austin Swaim – Jimmy Crute
“Bellato’s one UFC appearance was getting stopped by Ihor Potieria if a different ref was in charge…and now he’s laying chalk to a five-time winner? Crute’s grappling upside makes him a live ‘dog against anyone in the division.”
- The Fight Analyst – Rodolfo Bellato
“It’s really hard to be overly confident in either one of these two considering Jimmy is coming off a long layoff and hasn’t tasted victory since 2020 meanwhile, Bellato had to comeback after a rough start against Ihor Potieria to secure his first UFC victory. However, Bellato being the bigger and fresher fighter coming into this fight should be able to land something flush on Jimmy knocking him back into retirement.”
Matthews vs Prado | UFC
Jake Matthews vs. Francisco Prado
- HayJive – Francisco Prado
“Jake has always had a solid overall game but rarely puts it together. Prado is young and hungry and carries a lot of power on the feet. If he can stay off his back, stuff takedowns, and put the pressure on Matthew’s he can win this fight. Give me Prado by KO”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Jake Matthews
“There’s a big experience gap in this spot, with Matthews having tons of UFC minutes while Prado is still a young prospect, not to mention him moving up to 170 for this. Prado might get wrestled up if Matthews take the path of least resistance. But watch out for the power of Prado.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Francisco Prado
“Prado has a 100% Finish Rate and an amazing chin as well. Moving up to welter-weight I feel his endurance will allow him to shine brighter and use his youth and power to find a finish on Matthews, who does leave openings at times.”
- Austin Swaim – Jake Matthews
“Though it could be hairy at points because of Jake’s chin, Prado’s historical takedown D issues moving up in weight seem like a disaster for him if Matthews employs the right gameplan.”
- The Fight Analyst – Francisco Prado
“My first initial reaction was that Prado will be too small to move up to face Matthews and the grappling that he possesses but after taking a deeper look into it, Matthews rarely grapples as he has landed just 2 takedowns in the last 4 years (6 fights). If this fights ends up being primarily a kickboxing match this gives Prado the leg up in aggression, volume, power, and durability. Give me the underdog to kick off the main card in Sydney.”
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