UFC 315 | HOF Expert Picks
Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC 315
UFC 315 returns to Montreal’s Bell Centre this Saturday, May 10, delivering a stacked card with two world titles on the line and a host of high-stakes matchups sure to electrify the Canadian crowd.
In the main event, welterweight champion Belal Muhammad (24-3, 1 NC) makes his first title defense after dethroning Leon Edwards. Muhammad, known for his relentless pace and tactical acumen, faces Australia’s surging Jack Della Maddalena (17-2), who rides a remarkable 15-fight win streak. Della Maddalena’s crisp boxing and finishing instincts present a serious threat, making this a classic striker vs. grinder showdown with divisional supremacy at stake.
The co-main event sees Valentina Shevchenko (24-4-1) begin her second reign as flyweight queen against France’s Manon Fiorot (12-1). Shevchenko, having silenced doubters with her return to the throne, faces a hungry Fiorot, whose size and physicality could pose new problems for the champion. Expect a high-level chess match between two of the sport’s most technical women.
Elsewhere on the main card, Brazilian legend Jose Aldo meets local favorite Aiemann Zahabi in a bantamweight clash, while Alexa Grasso and Natalia Silva square off in a pivotal flyweight bout. French lightweight Benoit Saint Denis opens the PPV against Canadian newcomer Kyle Prepolec.
With a great fight card on tap, money can be made at the sportsbook this Saturday night. Home of Fight is here to help put money in your pockets and cash out at the window this Saturday night. Let’s take a look at the Home of Fight expert picks for UFC 315.
Belal vs JDM | HOF
Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena
- HayJive – Jack Della Maddalena
“Belal is nearly 37 years old, so I don’t expect his title reign to be long. JDM is susceptible to takedowns but he is a very good scrambler and Belal does not make you pay once he gets you to the ground. I think JDM can do enough damage throughout the fight to either get a finish or win on the scorecards.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Belal Muhammad
“Belal’s fight IQ mixed with his wrestling approach could win him valuable minutes in this fight. I don’t like the betting line, but I do think he wins.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Jack Della Maddalena
“While Belal has been getting all the love, it seems people have been joining the party late. JDM is coming into this one with an aggressive boxing style, which has been Belal’s primarily issue in the past, and the ability to get back up from wrestling exchanges and still cause damage as the fight progresses. With that being said, I do believe Jack finds a late KO win.”
- Corrie – Jack Della Maddalena
“If Belal really plans to stand and trade, like he and his team are saying (i have a deeper theory following the reason being the bone infection this late autumn but I digress), that’s a risky move considering he’s never scored a knockdown in 19 UFC fights, while JDM has six in seven and has yet to absorb one. Belal is brilliant but JDM is younger, hits way harder, and is more efficient on the feet, and if Belal doesn’t wrestle, I’m taking the guy with real power and momentum.”
- The Fight Analyst – Belal Muhammad
“I have been on the fence with this fight all week. This fight is as binary as it gets. If this fight stays on the feet for long periods, Della Maddalena has the upper hand, but if Muhammad actually fights to his abilities, mixing in the takedowns, he will be dominant in doing such. Belal seems smart enough not to fight Della Maddalena’s fight, which in turn will slow him down over time as Muhammad potentially comes away with a mid-to-late finish or the nod on the scorecards.”
Shevchenko vs Fiorot | HOF
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot
- HayJive – Manon Fiorot
“This is a fight I’ve been waiting to see for a while, and the entire time I’ve been saying Fiorot can win. I don’t think it will be easy, but with Fiorot’s size, takedown defense, and striking, I think she gets the better of Valentina here.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Manon Fiorot
“Manon is massive for the division, throws much more volume, and can defend the wrestling attack at a high clip. I believe it’s her time.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Valentina Shevchenko
“This is a close call. Fiorot is an elite striker, though so is Valentina. While Valentina has wrestled a lot recently, she can win her fights purely on the feet, as we’ve seen in the past. I believe her wrestling could be used in moments here, though I believe the standup will be a factor.”
- Corrie – Valentina Shevchenko
“The energy around this fight feels just like the Zhang Weili & Tatiana Suarez matchup at 312, everyone counted Zhang out because Suarez was the younger, “bound-to-be champ,” but it was never about if, it was about when. Like Suarez, Manon still has holes in her game, and while she might hold the belt someday, I don’t think it’s happening this Saturday. These two bring such different styles, and while Manon’s great at managing distance and scoring, Shevchenko still feels more well-rounded, and if Shevchenko can break the distance, I think it’s her hand getting raised.”
- The Fight Analyst – Valentina Shevchenko
“It’s mind-boggling to me that Shevchenko is the underdog in this spot. As an underdog in her UFC career, she is 3-0, and honestly, from the looks of her dominant win against Alexa Grasso, she doesn’t look like she’s on the decline. While Fiorot is a dangerous striker in her own right, she’s not young at 35 years old, she doesn’t have the grappling edge, and she doesn’t have the power to end the fight. This should be a relatively close decision-type of fight where Shevchenko will be the more active fighter looking to mix the martial arts, getting the nod on the scorecards to move to 4-0 as the underdog and retain her title.”
Aldo vs Zahabi | HOF
Jose Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi
- HayJive – Aiemann Zahabi
“This likely comes down to a very close decision, and I don’t see either guy running away with it. However, the lack of urgency from Aldo to pull away in this fight could be his demise. I’ll take Zahabi to get his hand raised in a close one.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Aiemann Zahabi
“The line is too wide and this should be a very close fight. Zahabi can match the pace of an older Aldo, and I think he can land the more meaningful shots. I must add he’s fighting at home here as well.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Jose Aldo
“Aldo’s speed is still there at 38. We’ve seen it in his last few fights. Zahabi isn’t nearly as talented as Bautista or has the cardio as tough as Merab’s. I could see a scenario where this extends into the later rounds and Aldo takes over.”
- Corrie – Aiemann Zahabi
“He’s consistently underrated, but he keeps proving he belongs at this level, whereas Aldo’s age is starting to show with slower movement and faster-than-usual fading cardio but if we want consider Aldo’s experience and competition level versus the momentum and skill Zahabi’s found later in his career with GSP in his corner? I mean, flip a coin, but I’m taking Zahabi here.”
- The Fight Analyst – Jose Aldo
“At age 38, Aldo still has a lot of fight left in him. Even though Bautista was able to stall against the cage in his win against Aldo, this is something that Zahabi will not be able to replicate. At space, Aldo is still very dangerous, even beating fighters like Bautista and Martinez in recent fights at range. Now, Zahabi isn’t on the level of either Martinez or Bautista in terms of striking, and he’s 37 years old himself. Expect Aldo to maintain the center of the Octagon and land his counters en route to a decision victory, getting back on track.”
Grasso vs Silva | HOF
Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva
- HayJive – Natalia Silva
“Maybe one of the more confident picks for me on this card is Natalia Silva. Her outside style and takedown defense should allow her to win a lot of minutes as Grasso will struggle to find her groove in the striking.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Natalia Silva
“Silva’s striking is very hard to deal with for anyone, and we saw Grasso struggle on the feet against Valentina. This is Silva’s time, she should land more damage, and keep this on the feet leading herself to the win.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Natalia Silva
“Silva’s style is perfect for this fight. Great TDD, elite outside striking and overall solid output. Grasso will not want to offensively wrestle here and I believe that Silva’s only issue could be wih a stronger, more dominant grappler.”
- Corrie – Natalia Silva
“Silva outlanding Andrade gives me confidence she can handle this step up and outland Grasso on the feet. And looking at the numbers, Silva’s better pretty much everywhere and on tape, her movement is so quick and clean that it feels like she’ll manage the distance and neutralize Grasso’s constant forward pressure.”
- The Fight Analyst – Natalia Silva
“This is the passing of the torch fight. Silva has looked sensational during her run in the UFC. Her striking is so diverse, and she’s so fast on her feet that Grasso is going to have a tough time trying to land her boxing combinations. Also, Silva’s takedown defense has looked great as well if Grasso elected to try to go that route. Expect Silva to go out there and utilize her speed and her range to pick apart Grasso to get the biggest win of her career, putting her in a prime position for a potential title shot.”
Saint-Denis vs Prepolec | HOF
Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Kyle Prepolec
- HayJive – Benoit Saint-Denis
“This is a get right spot for BSD, he should be able to get his takedowns when he wants to and find a submission. If he elects to strike, he is only allowing himself to get hurt.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Benoit Saint-Denis
“Benoit is getting a very late notice replacement who he should be able to hurt on the feet, take down when he wants, and maul his opponent. Give me BSD easily.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Benoit Saint-Denis
“This seems pretty straight forward. StDenis has the aggressive style and likes to drag people down and bully them. I believe he will do that against a short notice Prepolec who has been submitted now twice.”
- Corrie – Benoit Saint-Denis
“Benoît Saint-Denis is younger, tougher, hits harder, and has the grappling edge by a mile… There’s not much to this fight at all and even having a full camp, Kyle wasn’t training to fight Benoît and now he’s stepping in at the last minute… I just don’t see a world where he wins this unless Benoît gets wheeled up to the cage in a wheelchair.”
- The Fight Analyst – Benoit Saint-Denis
“I am happy to see Kyle Prepolec get his second shot in the UFC but this is an atrocious matchup for him to come back to. Saint-Denis certainly took the easiest fight he could on short notice when others like Mateusz Gamrot called for the fight. Saint-Denis should make quick work of Prepolec getting him out of there under 1.5 rounds and getting back into the win column.”
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