Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC 321
UFC 321 promises to deliver fireworks this Saturday, October 25, live from the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. The main event features Tom Aspinall’s first defense of the undisputed heavyweight championship against striking maestro Ciryl Gane. After Jon Jones vacated the title, Aspinall emerged as the rightful king of the division, boasting finishes over every opponent he’s faced in the UFC. His blend of speed, explosiveness, and fight IQ makes him one of the most dynamic heavyweights in recent memory.
Gane, meanwhile, seeks redemption in his third attempt at undisputed gold. Known for his elite footwork and polished Muay Thai, the Frenchman must overcome past defensive lapses to dethrone the English champion. His ability to control range and stay disciplined will be key against Aspinall’s aggressive forward pressure.
In the co-main event, Virna Jandiroba meets Mackenzie Dern in a rematch for the vacant women’s strawweight championship. Dern claimed victory in their 2020 clash, but Jandiroba has surged since, going 6-1 to earn another shot at gold. Rounding out the main card, Umar Nurmagomedov faces Mario Bautista in a likely bantamweight title eliminator, while Alexander Volkov battles Jailton Almeida in a heavyweight showdown with major divisional stakes.
With a great fight card on tap, money can be made at the sportsbook this Saturday night. Home of Fight is here to help put money in your pockets and cash out at the window this Saturday night. Let’s take a look at the Home of Fight expert picks for UFC 321.
Tom Aspinall (C) vs. Cyril Gane
- HayJive – Tom Aspinall
“I do think Aspinall gets another early finish here, but his betting line a bit wide for a guy who we still have a lot of questions that are left unanswered.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Tom Aspinall
“The speed combined with power, and grappling should be enough to put Gane in bad positions. Especially in rounds 1-3.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Tom Aspinall
“I feel the skill discrepancy here is something real. While I do feel Gane has trained his grappling and aimed at improving, Aspinall will build his way to finding the entries earlier into the fight, and again in R2 when he finds the finish.”
- Corrie – Tom Aspinall
“I lean Tom because he’s explosive, fast, and unpredictable and ultimately his ability to mix power striking with slick grappling makes him dangerous everywhere the fight goes and Gane’s been wanting to stay on the outside and point strike lately and if Tom can close the distance early and impose his pace before Gane finds his rhythm, I think his finishing instinct takes over and ends it quick.”
- The Fight Analyst – Tom Aspinall
“I feel this fight is going to be a lot closer than the betting odds suggest. However, Aspinall just has more ways to get this fight done, especially on the ground. If Aspinall can use his hands to set up the takedowns, he should be able to dominate there, getting the mid-fight finish in potentially round three.”
Mackenzie Dern vs. Virna Jandiroba
- HayJive – Virna Jandiroba
“Give me the underdog here, Dern won the first fight but it was very competitive. In this rematch I expect Virna to use her offensive grappling more than she did in the first one to win minutes on top.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Mackenzie Dern
“The value may be with Virna, but I like the junkyard dog style Mackenzie can bring. This is a rematch that Dern won before as well.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Mackenzie Dern
“While Jandiroba has won more fights recently, styles make fights and Jandiroba’s style only works if someone is afraid of the grappling she carries. If there is solid takedown defense, she is frightened, as we saw glimpses against Godinez and even in the first Dern fight. Dern has decent striking, despite what people may think and even some slightly underrated power.”
- Corrie – Mackenzie Dern
“At first glance, I did go Virna but now I’ve shifted and I lean Dern because chaos is her comfort zone and when fights get messy and scramble-heavy, she finds a way to turn split seconds into submissions, not to mention: her hands have gotten significantly better. Virna might control early but in a 5 round fight I feel like Dern’s the upside here, with stronger cardio, more creativity and pure jiu-jitsu instinct make her the type to turn defense into a win.”
- The Fight Analyst – Virna Jandiroba
“Normally, rematches don’t go exactly the same as the first fight, and I am expecting a completely different fight this time. Jandiroba barely attempted takedowns, just 1, in that first fight and I thoroughly expect a lot more this time around. It will be the forward pressure and the relentless grappling of Jandiroba that will push Dern to the breaking point as she outworks Dern to a decision victory and becomes the new strawweight champion.”
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista
- HayJive – Umar Nurmagomedov
“This is a tall ask for Bautista, I do think he can compete here against Umar but I think he’ll need a finish to get his hand raised and I don’t see that happening.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Umar Nurmagomedov
“Umar has all the tools to stay a step ahead of Mario in all situations. 3 rounds benefits Umar here.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Umar Nurmagomedov
“Now is the time to buy Nurmagomedov at a discounted price. I do feel he’s going to find the entries, build himself as the fight progresses and find the submission.”
- Corrie – Umar Nurmagomedov
“While I 100% think Mario Bautista is live for the upset and genuinely believe that if this fight were anywhere else, I’d be taking him, buttt the location changes everything and with this one being in Abu Dhabi and the high chance it goes to a decision, I’ll take Umar by whatever the judges’ want… The control, the pace, and the judges’ lean toward grappling over volume make it hard to see it going any other way.”
- The Fight Analyst – Umar Nurmagomedov
“Despite breaking his hand in round one, Nurmagomedov was able to take the first two rounds against Dvalishvili, making it the hardest title defense of his career. Now with his hand fully healed, we should see Nurmagomedov get back on track against a surging Bautista, who’s just going to be a bit slower on the feet and not as technically sound in the grappling either. Nurmagomedov goes out there and just outworks Bautista over the course of three rounds and gets back into the win column.”
Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida
- HayJive – Alexander Volkov
“I’ll take another dog here, Almeida likely wins rd 1 or gets and early finish. But Volkov’s size should give Almeida some issues. If he can survive early I think he can turn the momentum quickly and I don’t trust Almeida if things aren’t going his way.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Alexander Volkov
“Volkov just needs to keep getting back up, and eventually the striking will wear on Almeida. If Almeida gets tired, he’s toast.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Jailton Almeida
“I feel the grappling differential is significant here and he will use that to exploit Volkov, who we have seen controlled on the ground. While I do think there could be resistance, Almeida’s grappling is the best in the division at the moment.”
- Corrie – Alexander Volkov
“IMO there’s only two ways this fight goes: Volkov by knockout or Almeida by submission. Volkov’s length and striking could easily put Almeida to sleep if he keeps it standing, but I lean the sub because Almeida’s pressure, top control, and ability to drag even bigger guys into deep water feels tailor-made to break a tall striker like Volkov down once it hits the mat… That said, Almeida by newly engaged and having a wedding to pay for. (I will take the weak man’s way out and bet both outcomes).”
- The Fight Analyst – Alexander Volkov
“This could be Volkov’s last chance of getting a potential title shot if he comes away with the win this weekend against Almeida. Volkov knows what Almeida is going to do and as long as he can keep his feet on the ground and not allow Almeida to get in on his hips, he should be able to fend off this takedowns, keep the fight on his feet, and potentially KO Almeida and solidify his spot for the next title shot.”
Aleksandar Rakic vs. Azamat Murzakanov
- HayJive – Azamat Murzakanov
“This is a close one, but I think Azamat is the more devastating striker. This is a kicker vs puncher type of matchup and I think the puncher has more upside to finish as well as land the more eye catching shots.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Aleksandar Rakic
“Rakic is much taller, longer, and explosive as well. He’s been fighting championship level fighters and this is a step up for Azamat.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Aleksandar Rakic
“While Murzakanov has the great finish rate, I feel this step up in competition may catch him by surprise. Rakic can utilize high kicks to cause danger to Murzakanov, who will be the shorter fighter with a reach disadvantage.”
- Corrie – Azamat Murzakanov
“I’m taking Azamat to win because his pressure, compact boxing, and knockout power are tailor-made to close distance and test Rakić’s chin which something that’s looked shakier lately. That said, if Rakić keeps him at range with kicks and controls the pace, a decision win isn’t impossible, but my lean stays with Azamat by KO.”
- The Fight Analyst – Azamat Murzakanov
“Rakic always looked like a potential dark horse in the light heavyweight division until his recent fights. It seems that the wear and tear is getting to him, and it doesn’t get any easier against a power puncher like Murzakanov. Murzakanov will need to get on the inside of the kicks of Rakic, and when he does, he will land a flush overhand right that will sit Rakic down, putting him away to remain unbeaten at UFC 321.
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