HOF | Expert Picks
UFC Saudi Arabia
This weekend, the UFC returns to UFC Saudi Arabia with a stacked fight night headlined by a middleweight clash between former two-time champion Israel Adesanya and rising contender Nassourdine Imavov. The event takes place on Saturday, February 1, 2025, at the ANB Arena in Riyadh.
Adesanya, looking to bounce back from recent setbacks, faces a tough test in the fifth-ranked Imavov. This non-title bout marks Adesanya’s first non-championship fight since 2019, adding intrigue to his comeback attempt.
The co-main event features an exciting middleweight matchup between Russia’s Shara Magomedov and England’s Michael “Venom” Page, who is making the jump up to the middleweight division. Heavyweight action follows with Sergei Pavlovich taking on Jairzinho Rozenstruik in what promises to be a hard-hitting affair.
Other notable bouts include Said Nurmagomedov vs. Vinicius Oliveira at bantamweight and a featherweight clash between Muhammad Naimov and Kaan Ofli. The card suffered a setback with the cancellation of André Muniz vs. Ikram Aliskerov due to passport issues but still boasts a solid lineup of prelim fights.
The Home of Fight Experts are here to help put cash into your pockets as they kickstart 11 straight weeks of fights, so let’s see what they have cooking for this weekend!
Adesanya vs Imavov | HOF
Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov
- HayJive – Israel Adesanya
“I don’t think Izzy is completely done, and if he comes in here at his best form I don’t see him losing. Imavov’s best path is to mix in some grappling, but I don’t trust he can do that over the course of 5 rounds. I’ll take Adesanya by decision showing the levels in striking.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Israel Adesanya
“This fight is super important for Izzy due to the fact that all the big fights and title fights go away if he loses. I feel that we see a vintage Izzy and he gets his hand raised.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Israel Adesanya
“Izzy’s boxing seemed to improve against DDP despite losing that fight. Izzy’s control of distance against a fighter like Imavov will be impeccable, which will allow him to lead the dance. While Imavov has the ability to get takedowns, Adesanya is more capable of picking his shots and create the bigger moments.”
- Austin Swaim – Nassourdine Imavov
“While I wouldn’t rule out a finish, I’ve got the younger Imavov a -125 favorite here and agree with that line. Adesanya’s declining puncher power and efficiency aren’t as scary with the known grappling upside in the Frenchman’s direction.”
- The Fight Analyst – Israel Adesanya
“While many are contemplating whether Adesanya is taking his fighting career serious anymore, he is still one of the best middleweight fighters in UFC history and he will continue that by doing what he does best styling on Imavov to get back on track scoring his first non-title win since 2019.”
Shara vs MVP | HOF
Shara Magomedov vs. Michael ‘Venom’ Page
- HayJive – Michael Page
“I like this matchup, but sometimes with 2 elite strikers they take some time to figure each other out. The problem is, nobody has been able to figure out MVP without resorting to a takedown. I don’t see Shara looking to wrestle here, and if you’re gonna give me MVP as an underdog in a striking match I have to take him.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Shara Magomedov
“Michael Venom Page is moving up a weight class and is incredibly low volume, and Shara is high volume with great striking himself. If this goes to the scorecards watch out for Shara to win by decision if the fight is anywhere close.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Shara Magomedov
“Expectations are for a striking fight but I can see a ton of clinching and that will favor Magomedov, especially in a Saudi crowd and in front of Saudi Judges. Moreover, this will be MVP moving UP, so let’s see if he adapts to the power well.”
- Austin Swaim – Michael Page
“This could also be a very boring decision, but Page should have a huge speed and head defense advantage at 185. Shara’s one-dimensional skillset is more cool than it is dangerous, and his initial UFC competition has aged like milk. I’ll take Venom to find an opening.”
- The Fight Analyst – Shara Magomedov
“This is the fight that most fans are looking forward to and while Page is an elite striker, I don’t rate him as highly as many people do. Being as Page is severely low volume (3.66 Sig Str Thrown PM) he is going to be outgunned compared to Magomedov (10.49 Sig Str Thrown PM) as Magomedov just out-volumes Page en route to a rather close decision victory.”
Pavlovich vs Rozenstruik | HOF
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
- HayJive – Sergei Pavlovich
“Whoever lands big first wins this one, and the big thing here is the reach advantage for Pav. He has to come out hot and make Jairzinho uncomfortable, if he doesn’t that I think he can find an early KO.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Jairzinho Rozenstruik
“Jarzinho needs to survive round 1 and he will have opportunities to win / take over this fight. He’s a talented kick boxer and can use his jab and body kicks to slow down the marauder style of Pavlovich.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Sergei Pavlovich
“Not overthinking this one. Pavlovich is coming off losses to the best of the heavyweight division. He will look for the first round finish where I feel Rozenstruik will be unable to close the range as efficiently as he’d like, leading to mistakes.”
- Austin Swaim – Sergei Pavlovich
“Rozenstruik being more technical than Tai Tuivasa and outlasting Shamil Gaziev hasn’t changed the fact he can’t hang with the big boys. He’s 1-5 against fighters who have ever held a top-five ranking, and Tuivasa — the exception — proved fraudulent.”
- The Fight Analyst – Sergei Pavlovich
“This fight will come down to whether lands the big shot first should get it done and seeing as how Pavlovich has a massive reach advantage, he should be the one who’s quicker to the punch as he gets the early knockout and finally gets back on track.”
Marcel Dorff | Twitter
Said Nurmagomedov vs. Vinicius Oliveira
- HayJive – Said Nurmagomedov
“Oliveira reminds me of a Walmart Jiri Prochazka, very awkward but effective striking and at times can be very hittable. Said should be the better grappler and I think he can match the striking here. I’ll take Said by Sub or Decision.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Said Nurmagomedov
“Said is lightning fast, crafty, and hard to read on the feet mixed in with a great grappling game. Oliveria relies on big moments and knockouts and I believe Said has the game to limit those opportunities of Oliveira.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Vinicius Oliveira
Said Nurmagomedov is an electrifying finisher, and while we have seen him dominate, the moment the fights do extend themselves further past R2, he tends to fade, while Oliveira can put the foot on the gas and grow as the fight progresses.
- Austin Swaim – Said Nurmagomedov
“I’ve been pleasantly surprised by Oliveira’s well-rounded skills, but this is a huge step up on the feet in particular. Tough to pick him opposite Said’s well-rounded skillset, but I have no strong lean here.”
- The Fight Analyst – Said Nurmagomedov
“Vinicius Oliviera has a very high ceiling with his all-around skillset and his finish abilities but he has met his match against Said Nurmagomedov who mirrors him in intangibles, can strike with him, and is the better submission grappler. Nurmagomedov goes in there and is just able to do more to get the nod on the judge’s scorecards.”
Marcel Dorff | Twitter
Fares Ziam vs. Mike Davis
- HayJive – Fares Ziam
“Both guys have had a lot of success recently, but I think Ziam is coming into his own showing a lot of improvements. If he can avoid getting taken down I think he’ll be more defensively responsible and win the striking exchanges. I’ll take Ziam by decision.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Mike Davis
“Davis is an explosive fighter with great wrestling and jiu jitsu which has been the hole in Ziam’s game. Davis does slow down, but I believe he’s got enough in the tank to win the first round using his wrestling and winning minutes. He MUST stay safe in round 3 and I believe he wins.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Mike Davis
“Davis knows how to mix his entries with his striking and can be quite efficient on the ground. While Ziam was impressive in his last fight, not too long ago, he was taken down 7 times in one single fight by Claudio Puelles.”
- Austin Swaim – Fares Ziam
“Stuffing 18 of the last 27 takedowns he’s faced, I have enough confidence in Ziam keeping his feet to outpoint Beast Boy. I love Davis’ tools, but he’s off a huge layoff and has beaten really iffy competition. I felt better about Frevola, and Ziam mopped him. I’ve modeled Fares at +105.”
- The Fight Analyst – Fares Ziam
“Fares Ziam has been a pleasant surprise winning each of his last four fights and emphatically finishing Frevola his last time out. While Mike Davis is dangerous everywhere, it seems like the miles are catching up to him with numerous injuries which will plague him in this fight as Ziam fends off the takedowns and utilizes his speed, movement, and reach to pick him apart to a decision victory.”
Marcel Dorff | Twitter
Muhammad Naimov vs. Kaan Ofli
- HayJive – Muhammad Naimov
“Ofli showed his lack of striking in his last fight and that will be a problem here. Naimov has power in his hands and can’t grapple as well. I’ll take Naimov by KO or Decision.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Muhammad Naimov
“Naimov is a pretty well rounded mixed martial artist who’s striking will be better than Ofli. If he can keep it on the feet, Naimov’s power will be the difference maker in this fight.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Muhammad Naimov
“Naimov has significantly more power than Ofli, the takedown defense to keep this standing and Ofli seems like an undersized featherweight with a 66’inch reach at 145.”
- Austin Swaim – Muhammad Naimov
“It’s difficult to put extreme trust in Naimov after losing to a 135er, but Lima has great skills everywhere. I can’t say the same about Ofli, who looked lost in a bout against a total unknown in the TUF finale. Hard to think “Hillman” goes from dominating Nathaniel Wood to losing here.”
- The Fight Analyst – Muhammad Naimov
“I don’t think highly of Kaan Ofli as he is undersized for the 145-pound division and he lacks in the striking to complement his grappling. He is going to have a tough time out-muscling Naimov to the mat and when the fight is on the feet Naimov should have his way landing the bigger shots potentially putting him away late or getting the nod on the scorecards.”
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