Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC Vegas 116
The Octagon returns to the Meta APEX in Las Vegas this Saturday, April 25, for UFC Vegas 116, delivering an action-packed main card headlined by a pivotal featherweight clash. Former bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling continues his quest for a second belt in a new division, taking on the surging Moroccan standout Youssef Zalal. Both men are elite grapplers who have boldly predicted submission finishes, meaning fans can expect a high-stakes, technical chess match with serious title implications at 145 pounds.
Beyond the main event, the card offers plenty of explosive matchups. In the lightweight division, Rafa Garcia squares off against the always-dangerous Alexander Hernandez in a bout guaranteed to produce fireworks on the feet. Bantamweight veterans are also heavily featured, with fan-favorite action fighter Davey Grant locking horns with Adrian Luna Martinetti, while the rangy Montel Jackson meets the highly experienced Brazilian Raoni Barcelos.
Rounding out the main card, the women’s bantamweight division takes center stage as perennial contender Norma Dumont looks to assert her striking dominance against the tough Joselyne Edwards. Finally, Brazilian jiu-jitsu legend Marcus Buchecha aims to make a massive statement in the heavyweight division when he faces the heavy-handed Ryan Spann. Broadcasting live on Paramount+, UFC Vegas 116 is shaping up to be an unmissable night of world-class mixed martial arts.
With a great fight card on tap, money can be made at the sportsbook this Saturday night. Home of Fight is here to help put money in your pockets and cash out at the window this Saturday night. Let’s take a look at the Home of Fight expert picks for UFC Vegas 116.
Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal
HayJive – Aljamain Sterling
- “I’ll take Aljamain Sterling in a close fight. It feels 50-50, and getting him as a slight underdog is enough for me. If he can get his grappling going and keep it competitive on the feet, he has a clear path here.”
Nolan (TheParlay) – Youssef Zalal
- “I think Zalal’s got more to prove, he’s streaking, and has better striking with the scramble ability to get back to the feet. Aljo needs takedowns for 5 rounds to win.”
JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Aljamain Sterling
- “I do believe the 5 Round, High Level Experience will make a key difference in this fight, though Zalal can be dangerous.”
The Fight Analyst – Youssef Zalal
- “While Sterling is still the creme of the crop of the featherweight division, I feel it’s going to be tough for him to just grapple and control Zalal for 25 minutes. Zalal is tough to control for long stretches, and the longer the fight plays out on the feet, the more success Zalal has outstriking Sterling to a decision victory.”
Austin Swaim – Aljamain Sterling
- “On paper, I just don’t trust Youssef Zalal’s recent results indicate a level up — especially when his lethal submission game is well-matched by the former bantamweight champ. Sterling’s striking volume, wrestling, and five-round experience are significant advantages.”
Norma Dumont vs. Joselyne Edwards
HayJive – Norma Dumont
- “Dumont has faced the better competition. Edwards has improved, but not against this level. Feels like a competitive fight, but I trust Dumont’s experience to edge a decision.”
Nolan (TheParlay) – Norma Dumont
- “Norma’s going to be the faster fighter and she physical enough to get off the cage. Edwards wasn’t looking good against Nora until the slam, and Norma won’t let her get to those positions.”
JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Norma Dumont
- “I do give Dumont the edge in this fight because of her physicality.”
The Fight Analyst – Norma Dumont
- “Dumont is at her peak right now and is gunning for a title shot. As long as she can up the volume and utilize her clinch, she should extend her winning streak this weekend.”
Austin Swaim – Joselyne Edwards
- “I believe in Joselyne Edwards’ rebirth at Xtreme Couture with my guy Eric Nicksick. She’s been putting away women like Priscilla Cachoeira and Nora Cornolle that are historically durable. Though having plenty of respect for Dumont’s sparkling efficiency numbers, I haven’t quite forgotten that she was chinned in her UFC debut.”
Rafa Garcia vs. Alexander Hernandez
HayJive – Alexander Hernandez
- “Hernandez looks like the better fighter in most areas outside of cardio and maybe pure wrestling. His speed at 155 has made a difference, and I think that shows here.”
Nolan (TheParlay) – Alexander Hernandez
- “Garcia beat Gordon who got hit by a car the day before the fight, and beat Vinc Pichel in his retirement fight at 40 years old. Alex is in his prime and on a good win streak over decent comp.”
JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Alexander Hernandez
- “I can see Hernandez having a bit more skill in all attributes, carried by the positive momentum too.”
The Fight Analyst – Alexander Hernandez
- “Hernandez has finally hit his prime and has put together some of the best performances of his career during his winning streak. Garcia is built on just overwhelming the opposition which will be tough when he’s going to be taking damage from Hernandez. Hernandez’s power, speed, and movement will be too much for Garcia as Hernandez keeps his momentum going.”
Austin Swaim – Rafa Garcia
- “This lightweight fight should be a great, back-and-forth scrap, but Rafa Garcia is a historically efficiency wrestler (44% takedown accuracy) when Hernandez had some issues on the ground against Jim Miller and Damon Jackson. I think it helps Rafa edge close, competitive rounds.”
Adrian Luna Martinneti vs. Davey Grant
HayJive – Davey Grant
- “Grant is 40, but hasn’t looked washed. His loss to Jourdain doesn’t concern me much given how it happened. Against a debuting Martinetti, I trust Grant’s experience and overall skill.”
Nolan (TheParlay) – Davey Grant
- “Grant’s experience and technical striking should give him an edge. Martinetti is making his debut after a war with a guy who just got out fought in his debut. “
JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Adrian Luna Martinetti
- “Impressive war in DWCS showcasing grit and heart, and I do believe the youth factor will make a difference here. “
The Fight Analyst – Adrian Luna Martinetti
- “Given that Grant is 40 years old and tends to love to brawl doesn’t bode well in a matchup against someone like Martinetti. Maybe if this were a younger Grant, I’d give him the win here, but at this stage, Martinetti out-dogs Grant, potentially putting him away and improving to 18-1 in his debut fight.”
Austin Swaim – Davey Grant
- “Davey’s loss to a now-ranked Charles Jourdain didn’t age poorly when Jourdain is sliming Adrian Luna Martinetti himself. Martinetti’s DWCS bid was fun, but his poor striking D (48%) against a limited fighter like Vologdin isn’t a good omen for this debut against an eight-time UFC winner.”
Montel Jackson vs. Raoni Barcelos
HayJive – Montel Jackson
- “I’ll take Jackson here. The height and reach, along with the finishing upside, stand out against a 38-year-old Barcelos. Barcelos could wrestle and make it tricky, but if Jackson keeps it at range and limits exchanges, his power could be the difference.”
Nolan (TheParlay) – Montel Jackson
- “Jackson’s younger, faster, can wrestle, and will be live to KO Barcelos any time. Montel just needs to let his hands go and he will find success.”
JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Montel Jackson
- “At one point, the “pressure and pace” crafty veteran magic gets figured out when skill and speed is outmatched, which I think is the case here.”
The Fight Analyst – Raoni Barcelos
- “After that disappointing performance against Figueiredo, where Jackson just didn’t do anything, leads me to believe Barcelos just needs to be able to take a punch to win here. Barcelos will be the more active, crafty, and faster fighter and as long as he doesn’t chin checked he should just do more to get the win here.”
Austin Swaim – Raoni Barcelos
- “The Brazilian’s 38-year-old chin is his chief concern here. Other than that, the top control, wrestling, and pace we saw against Payton Talbott is exactly how Jackson lost to Brett Johns and Deiveson Figueiredo — and nearly to Daniel Marcos, too. Any longer fight should favor Raoni.”
Marcus Buchecha vs. Ryan Spann
HayJive – Marcus Buchecha
- “Buchecha brings more durability, cardio, and will to win. Spann is dangerous early, but if he can’t find a quick finish, this should start to swing. I like Buchecha to take over late and get the win.”
Nolan (TheParlay) – Ryan Spann
- “Spann will be live to hurt Buchecha early and also has a nasty high elbow guillotine to defend takedowns with. Both guys gas, but Spann’s more dangerous in the striking.”
JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Marcus Buchecha
- “Do NOT overthink this one. It will be done quickly.”
The Fight Analyst – Ryan Spann
- “Buchecha has shown his elite grappling lacks offensive wrestling capabilities, landing just 4 of 24 takedown attempts in 2 fights, which shows that he’s not guaranteed to just ground Spann. And if he doesn’t get Spann down early, there’s a good chance he’s getting finished on the feet.”
Austin Swaim – Marcus Buchecha
- “Ryan Spann’s best attribute at light heavyweight was his size and power. On a level plane at heavyweight, I’m worried his 52% takedown D gives up a few entires and see him get tapped. Buchecha’s submission game hasn’t surfaced in 2 UFC appearances; I think he’s due.”
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