Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC Vegas 118
The UFC returns to the Meta Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday, June 6, for UFC Vegas 118, headlined by a pivotal welterweight clash between former champion Belal Muhammad and red-hot contender Gabriel Bonfim. Muhammad enters on a two-fight skid, having dropped back-to-back decisions to Jack Della Maddalena and Ian Machado Garry, while Bonfim arrives riding four straight wins and carrying serious finishing power on the feet and elite submissions on the mat.
In the co-main event, ranked middleweight Brendan Allen puts his two-fight win streak on the line against the dangerous Edmen Shahbazyan, who has won three of his last four and will look to make a statement against a top-five opponent. Rounding out the main card, unbeaten lightweight Tom Nolan steps up against veteran Fares Ziam in a bout that could fast-track the prospect’s rise, while Bryce Mitchell looks to continue his success in his new division against Santiago Luna. It’s a card built on storylines, momentum shifts, and welterweight chaos at the top.
Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim
HayJive – Gabriel Bonfim
- “I’ll take Gabriel Bonfim in the main event. He’s nine years younger and trending in the right direction, while Belal is at a much different stage of his career. Bonfim is dangerous everywhere, with submission threats, sharp boxing, calf kicks, and strong clinch offense. If Belal pressures recklessly, he risks getting finished. If he doesn’t, he could allow Bonfim to conserve energy and negate the cardio advantage. I like Bonfim to get it done.”
Nolan – Gabriel Bonfim
- “Bonfim is much younger and looking much better since getting more ufc experience. Belal is good, but Bonfim should win a lot of the exchanges here.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Gabriel Bonfim
- “I believe with the amount of grappling Belal attempts, Bonfim is comfortable enough working to get a submission.”
The Fight Analyst – Belal Muhammad
- “Belal Muhammad is just two fights removed from dominating Leon Edwards, winning the title, and having the longest active winning streak in the welterweight division. Now he’s lost his title and two in a row, but faces an up-and-coming prospect that has yet to face the caliber opponent Muhammad is. I expect Muhammad to show there are levels to this and get back into the win column this weekend.”
Austin Swaim – Gabriel Bonfim
- “Belal’s defensive proficiency makes it hard to see how he loses other than a tight decision, but he’s now 37, at a speed deficit, and hasn’t faced a truly lethal submission threat since Gilbert Burns, who injured his shoulder seconds into the fight. Bonfim presents real challenges if his cardio holds up over five rounds.”
Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan
HayJive – Brendan Allen
- “This feels like a good spot for Brendan Allen. He’s fought a much higher level of competition, and while Shahbazyan remains a dangerous striker, Allen should be able to hold his own on the feet while mixing in his grappling. That overall skill set gives him a clear path to victory.”
Nolan – Brendan Allen
- “I think Allen can have grappling success here. His striking and cardio have been improving which will give him the edge later in the fight.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Brendan Allen
- “Not rocket science, considering Allen has more experience and will have a grappling advantage.”
The Fight Analyst – Brendan Allen
- “Brendan Allen is peaking at the right time, and he has the chance to continue his hot streak against Edmen Shahbazyan as long as he avoids the big shots and drags the fight to the mat, where he will get a submission and keep it moving.”
Austin Swaim – Edmen Shahbazyan
- “It’s almost sort of hard to process RDR’s cardio failings in Brendan Allen’s last appearance, but Allen’s striking (47%) and takedown (55%) defense have long been the weakest in the rankings, and I think he lost to Vettori. Edmen seems to have turned the page with his cardio, and he’s the significantly more defensively responsible fighter when fresh.”
Fares Ziam vs. Tom Nolan
HayJive – Fares Ziam
- “I like Ziam here. He’s one of the more technically sound fighters in the division and has shown major improvements in his offensive wrestling. Nolan is dangerous, but Ziam has the tools to keep things under control and win the fight in multiple ways.”
Nolan – Fares Ziam
- “Ziam has been improving and there aren’t many holes in his game to be exploited against Tom Nolan. I think he can land more damage in this fight.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Fares Ziam
- “While Nolan is quite dangerous, Ziam is better, considering both men are open to aggressive striking.”
The Fight Analyst – Fares Ziam
- “Tom Nolan is exceptionally dangerous, especially early on, but Fares Ziam has progressed mightily over his last couple of fights. His grappling has been his most impressive attribute, and I can see him having success there, even finishing Nolan and keeping his hot streak alive.”
Austin Swaim – Tom Nolan
- “I really shouldn’t doubt Fares Ziam on a six-fight streak, but it’s not his fault that each of his recent wins has gone into the toilet or struggled with lower-level competition after he fought them. Nolan, who is a massive 155er with 5 submission attempts in his last 3 fights, could expose some existing grappling issues if that theory is true.”
Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna
HayJive – Bryce Mitchell
- “I’ll take Bryce Mitchell. Luna is intriguing and may be the more dangerous striker, but the experience gap is hard to ignore. Mitchell has faced much better competition and should be able to work his way into grappling exchanges. Once he gets on top, he’s very effective at controlling positions and winning rounds.”
Nolan – Santiago Luna
- “Luna seems like a special fighter. His wrestling should be good enough to get away from Bryce, and on the feet he will be far better and more powerful.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Bryce Mitchell
- “I do believe Luna is an interesting prospect, but Mitchell’s size could be an important factor here, especially in the grappling.”
The Fight Analyst – Bryce Mitchell
- “While Santiago Luna is an exciting bantamweight prospect, the level of competition between him and Bryce Mitchell isn’t even remotely close. As long as Luna doesn’t catch Mitchell on the feet, Mitchell should be able to drown him with his grappling over 15 minutes and extend his bantamweight winning streak to two in a row.”
Austin Swaim – Bryce Mitchell
- “Santiago Luna has faced just 2 takedown attempts, but Angel Pacheco got him down. That’s not the most convincing sample that, at 20 years old, he’s got his defensive fundamentals ironed out. Mitchell is one of the best offensive grapplers in UFC, and it seems to be even more impossible to handle here at bantamweight.”
Iwo Baraniewski vs. Junior Tafa
HayJive – Iwo Baraniewski
- “This feels like an IQ test for Baraniewski. Tafa is dangerous early and always carries knockout power, but if Baraniewski chooses to use his grappling, he should have a clear edge. His judo background gives him a path to get the fight to the ground, where he can take over and potentially find a finish.”
Nolan – Iwo Baraniewski
- “Iwo has that judo in his back pocket he could show us here against a guy who’s struggled against most grapplers. I think he’s live for a KO as well.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Iwo Baraniewski
- “Just raw force and has the momentum on his side against Tafa, who can be somewhat unpredictable at times.”
The Fight Analyst – Iwo Baraniewski
- “This should be a fun scrap for however long it lasts. Baraniewski is an absolute powerhouse, and I fully expect him to go balls out from the get-go and put his hands on Tafa, putting him down in round 1.”
Austin Swaim – Iwo Baraniewski
- “Junior Tafa (and his brother) win fights one way: a knockout inside of three minutes. Everything else, save a fight against Sean Sharaf, has been a loss — and usually by submission. I don’t even think it’ll take that long if he can chin Baraniewski, who has yet to show off judo and submission danger that we saw before his DWCS appearance.”
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