UFC 314 | ESPN Poster
UFC 314: Southpaw Report
Hello and welcome to the ever-popular southpaw report, which can now be found here exclusively at Home of Fight!
Aside from the fact that most statistics you see on major broadcasts are drawn from a faulty well of information full of misinterpretation and human error, the statistical categories discussed generally lack proper sample sizes and contexts.
So, with that in mind, I try to provide unique, applicable and (hopefully) interesting stats in the form of my patent southpaw reports.
Here, I will do my best to provide you with everything from stats to written and visual analysis covering every fighter facing a dedicated southpaw on upcoming UFC cards.
UFC 314 offers a solid slate of listed southpaws, so let’s get started!
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Jean Silva vs. Bryce Mitchell
Jean Silva, who faces Bryce Mitchell at UFC 314, is officially 3-0 against dedicated, UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Westin Wilson, Drew Dober, Melsik Baghdasaryan).
Silva’s countering savvy stays alive and well in open-stance affairs.
Jean Silva’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1910657167985963299
Dan Tom | X
From prodding body shots at range to sneaky slicing elbows in close, Silva appears flexible as far as his options go. The Fighting Nerds representative also packs a solid check hook with defensive pivots in tow that I suspect will serve him well this Saturday given the successes that Dan Ige and Ilia Topuria had with that punch opposite Mitchell.
My prediction: Although part of me is still slightly suspicious of an upset in this spot, I’m not sure if Mitchell’s wrestling will be good enough to consistently control Silva – nor do I believe that the American’s ground game is in “game over” territory.
More importantly, I suspect that the defensive pivots in the report above – coupled with said counter hooks and elbows – will be enough to pull Mitchell out of position and walk him into something within the first two frames.
The pick is Silva to force a stoppage via strikes in Round 2.
Reyes vs Krylov | MMA Junkie
Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick Reyes
Nikita Krylov, who faces Dominick Reyes at UFC 314, is officially 2-3 opposite UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Ovince St. Preux, Walt Harris; Losses: Ovince St. Preux, Misha Cirkunov, Magomed Ankalaev).
Krylov, who comes from a Kyokushin karate background, initially stepped onto the scene as a kick-spamming wildman who set a heavyweight knockout record in his second fight.
Nikita Krylov’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1910698601896173969
Dan Tom | X
Since then, Krylov has been steadily sharpening up his skills, as he’ll now sneakily counter-balance his kicks with straight punches off of the same side like a poor man’s Lyoto Machida. That said, southpaw cross and hook counters have wreaked havoc on Krylov’s defenses.
My prediction: Although I don’t disagree with Krylov being favored to win on paper, I suspect that Reyes’ speed and southpaw punches will provide problems for him here.
The only person to stop Krylov was Soa Paleilei up at heavyweight, but I believe that Reyes can add his name to that shortlist this Saturday. The pick is Reyes by knockout in Round 1.
Hooper vs Miller | HOF
Jim Miller vs. Chase Hooper
Jim Miller, who faces fellow southpaw Chase Hooper at UFC 314, is officially 4-7 against dedicated, UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Gleison Tibau, Alex White, Jason Gonzalez, Gabriel Benitez; Losses: Dustin Poirier, Michael Chiesa, Nate Diaz, Beneil Dariush, Benson Henderson, Francisco Trinaldo, Diego Sanchez).
Hooper, on the other hand, stands at 2-2 opposite UFC-level lefties (Wins: Peter Barrett, Jordan Leavitt; Losses: Alex Caceres, Steve Garcia).
Chase Hooper’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1910525933880221993
Dan Tom | X
Hooper also beat a southpaw in Canaan Kawaihae on Dana White’s Contender Series but he struggled with striking on all levels in those fights sans his Leavitt bout, which had no striking in it.
Hooper has looked to have sharpened up his striking offense, but his sample sizes are still so skewed and limited that it makes it hard to honestly know how much progress the 25-year-old has made.
All I know is that the improvements are going to have to be defensive ones if Hooper means to shore up his chances of suffering a defeat to the beloved veteran, Miller.
Although MMA gamblers have a hard time getting around the fact that height and reach aren’t everything, Miller has long made peace with his god-given stature as he quietly does well when striking with tall and long opponents regardless of their stance.
Jim Miller’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1910528155799929305
Dan Tom | X
Aside from being an unsung hero as one of the first UFC fighters to successfully utilize calf kicks in the octagon, Miller also quietly developed his counter-striking ability to help give him different ways of scoring on an opponent. Miller’s left cross, in particular, has been a deceptively powerful presence for the lightweight legend in victory or defeat.
My prediction: Considering the evidence I presented above, it’s hard not to see a pathway for Miller to score the upset via a stoppage due to strikes. And given the current odds that are being posted on Miller, it’s even harder to pass up on a chance to back him here.
The pick is Miller to break Hooper down with leg kicks by Round 2.
Marcel Dorff | X
Sedriques Dumas vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Sedriques Dumas, who faces Michal Oleksiejczuk at UFC 314, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level lefties but did beat Matej Penaz on Dana White’s Contender Series.
Sedriques Dumas’ southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1910691297306042481
Dan Tom | X
Considering how small Dumas’ sample above is, it’s hard to gauge exactly how he behaves in open-stance affairs. That said, I don’t like how easily the American can be pushed back or forced into a shelling defense given the pressuring body puncher he’s up against in Oleksiejczuk.
My Prediction: Between Oleksiejczuk freshening things up with The Fighting Nerds team to Dumas still looking a bit raw for my liking, it’s hard not to back the more proven product here (especially for the reason stated above).
Oleksiejczuk may have to deal with a somewhat sticky Dumas early, but the American’s lack of depth will likely lead to an early body shot knockout by the Pole in Round 1.
Marcel Dorff | X
Mitch Raposo vs. Sumudaerji
Mitch Raposo, who faces Sumudaerji at UFC 314, is officially 0-1 opposite UFC-level lefties (losing to Jake Hadley on Dana White’s Contender Series).
Raposo also lost his UFC debut to Andre Lima, who fought most of that contest southpaw despite traditionally fighting orthodox.
Mitch Raposo’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1910664422428934413
Dan Tom | X
Perhaps it’s because he’s an avid stance switcher, but Raposo’s game doesn’t seem to change too much when fighting southpaws. From darting in and out with punches to surprise takedowns, Raposo sets up a large part of his offense through lateral movement.
However, Raposo’s propensity to pot-shot and counter tends to leave him struggling to stay afloat numbers-wise, regardless of stance. The American also appears to struggle with leg and body defense, which could bode badly for him this weekend.
My prediction: Sumudaerji may mostly headhunt, but the Chinese fighter quietly wields some hard leg kicks that I think will come in handy for him here.
Couple that with the overall improvements Sumudaerji has been making, and I suspect that he gets back on track here by beating Raposo in a competitive but clear decision on the scorecards.
Marcel Dorff | X
Nora Cornolle vs. Hailey Cowan
Nora Cornolle, who faces Hailey Cowan at UFC 314, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level lefties.
Nora Cornolle’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1910679303970578731
Dan Tom | X
Sadly, Cornolle lacked even the smallest southpaw samples in any of her fights in or out of the UFC’s octagon. That said I’m not sure how much it will matter considering that both women have a high propensity to push into the clinch.
My Prediction: With this being a battle between two fighters who love to play all the way in or all the way out, I’ll semi-reluctantly side with the woman who I suspect is stronger and has the better range striking.
The pick is Cowan to edge out a fight that probably ends in a split decision.
Want to know more about each event? Visit homeoffight.com or any of our social media accounts for more articles, fighter interviews, and plenty of more coverage. Enjoy the fights, let us know how you’ll be watching!
