Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC
UFC 317: Southpaw Report
Hello and welcome to the ever-popular southpaw report, which can now be found here exclusively at Home of Fight!
Aside from the fact that most statistics you see on major broadcasts are drawn from a faulty well of information full of misinterpretation and human error, the statistical categories discussed generally lack proper sample sizes and contexts.
So, with that in mind, I try to provide unique, applicable and (hopefully) interesting stats in the form of my patent southpaw reports.
Here, I will do my best to provide you with everything from stats to written and visual analysis covering every fighter facing a dedicated southpaw on upcoming UFC cards.
UFC 317 offers a decent slate of listed southpaws, so let’s get started!
Royval vs Van | HOF
Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van
Johsua Van, who faces southpaw Brandon Royval at UFC 317, is officially 1-0 against dedicated, UFC-level southpaws, beating Rei Tsuruya.
The Tsuruya fight was a strange sample size given that the Japanese fighter’s rawness and wrestle-heavy assault had Van forgetting about his Jab and looking to counter. The lack of a steady jab also got Van to both lunge and chase a bit more with his punches, further opening him up to counters and takedowns alike.
Joshua Van’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1938561316634948066
Dan Tom | X
Van also got a lot of open-stance looks when he faced stance-switcher Charles Johnson, who shares similar height and length attributes to Royval. Van jabbed a little bit more in this fight and found his best success when doing so, but Johnson’s southpaw shot selection showed to have some serious play on the native of Myanmar.
My prediction: Despite being a huge fan of Van’s style and highlighting him in prospect columns prior to his arrival in the UFC, I suspect that this could be a classic ‘too much, too soon’ spot for the 23-year-old.
As we’ve seen with other active athletes like Donald Cerrone or Kevin Holland, taking as many fights as Van does – particularly on short notice – catches up to everyone in this game.
Add in the fact that we’ve seen everything from a southpaw arsenal to spinning elbows and knees land on Van in past performances, and I can’t help but side with the more proven product in Royval due to his superior range striking and more flexible approach angles.
Round 2 will likely be a “hot round” for both parties, but I’ll officially be picking Royval to win by decision despite the quiet finishing upside I see being live in this fight.
Moicano vs Dariush | HOF
Renato Moicano vs. Beneil Dariush
Renato Moicano, who faces southpaw Beneil Dariush, is 3-2 opposite UFC-level lefties (Wins: Jailin Turner, Drew Dober, Benoit Saint-Denis; Losses: Rafael dos Anjos, Islam Makhachev).
The last time I broke this fight down, Moicano had one less loss in his southpaw stat column. However, with said losses coming to former champions like Islam Makhachev and Rafael dos Anjos on short notice, it’s hard to be too harsh on Moicano for those particular results.
Nevertheless, Moicano still shows some issues with southpaws despite his winning record against them.
Renato Moicano’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1938560631482778045
Dan Tom | X
Moicano does surprisingly well with jabs and uppercuts in the open stance when he goes to them, but like many orthodox fighters – the Brazilian mainly prefers to counter. Regardless of stance, left-sided strikes and body shots appear to be Moicano’s common culprit.
My prediction: Regardless of any biases due to affiliation, I semi-reluctantly lean toward Moicano in this spot to survive some early scares en route to a rear-naked choke finish that’s sparked off by strikes on the feet.
If this fight were a few years ago, I’d be making a firm pick for Dariush without thinking twice. But with Dariush’s durability appearing to be even further out the door, I find myself siding with “Money” Moicano and the improvements and outright surprises he’s made at lightweight.
Don’t get me wrong: I don’t blame anyone taking a shot on Dariush at plus money from a betting perspective, as him hurting Moicano with southpaw body kicks and crosses – or finding a submission on the floor – is definitely on the table for the grey-haired assassin.
Marcel Dorff | X
Viacheslav Borshchev vs. Terrance McKinney
Viacheslav Borshchev, who faces southpaw Terrance McKinney at UFC 317, is officially 0-2-1 against dedicated, UFC-level southpaws (losing to Chase Hooper and Tom Nolan, while drawing with Nazim Sadykhov).
Despite technically standing winless in his three-fight sample size, Borshchev has shown more skills than most when having to deal with southpaw opposition.
Viacheslav Borshchev’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1938564092991865236
Dan Tom | X
Although Borshchev got caught on the end of a perfect punch with an improving Chase Hooper (who didn’t technically tap “Slava Claus” if you go back and watch the tape), the Russian showed his usual survival instincts to go along with some improved defense.
Said grappling improvements have seemed to be accompanied by some striking regressions, sadly, as Borshchev has looked less dynamic and durable in recent outings. Nevertheless, Borshchev appears to be more competent than most MMA fighters opposite southpaws considering his ability to both match stances and maintain his well-rounded arsenal from orthodox.
My prediction: Even though a McKinney knockout in the first frame wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest, I have a hard time picking such a volatile, do-or-die fighter over a more technical madman with proven staying power.
The pick is Borshchev by knockout in Round 2.
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