Southpaw Report: UFC 318

UFC 318 Southpaw Report

Hello and welcome to the ever-popular Southpaw Report, which can now be found here exclusively at Home of Fight!

Aside from the fact that most statistics you see on major broadcasts are drawn from a faulty well of information full of misinterpretation and human error, the statistical categories discussed generally lack proper sample sizes and contexts.

So, with that in mind, I try to provide unique, applicable and (hopefully) interesting stats in the form of my patent southpaw reports.

Here, I will do my best to provide you with everything from stats to written and visual analysis covering every fighter facing a dedicated southpaw on upcoming UFC cards.

UFC 318 offers a slew of listed southpaws, so let’s get started!

Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier

Max Holloway, who faces southpaw Dustin Poirier at UFC 318, is officially 1-3 against dedicated, UFC-level southpaws.

• Wins: Arnold Allen
• Losses: Conor McGregor, Dustin Poirier x2

Holloway may not have the prettiest record opposite UFC-level lefties, but said statistics come with some solid caveats in tow.

Aside from half of Holloway’s southpaw sample size happening over a decade ago, both of the Hawaiian’s encounters with Poirier came on somewhat short notice.

Max Holloway’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1946232137637851530

Not only has Holloway made some serious strides in his striking game since then, but the former featherweight champion has also proven how much better he looks against southpaws (as well as how much better he looks up at 155 pounds) with a full training camp behind him.

Although southpaw counters and crosses have been a common culprit for Holloway in these stance pairings, the 33-year-old has done well when it comes to building attacks off of his rear kicks and knees.

Max Holloway’s southpaw report (cont.): https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1946232748689281175

And in Holloway’s latest southpaw sample opposite Allen, the 15-year pro displayed the ability to out-southpaw the Englishman with his own stance, which is something you seldom see given the skill and savvy it requires.

My prediction: Despite Poirier’s statistical superiority in everything ranging from rematch records to trilogy fights, I believe that Holloway has a decent chance of putting his name on the proverbial board in this series.

Aside from being the younger and more active fighter, Holloway has arguably made more technical strides since their last meeting. From improved kicks and counters to his in-fight adjustments on the fly, Holloway is still showing improvements at this stage of his career.

I’m expecting Holloway and his team to come in with another well-prepared game plan (that likely involves more kicks this time around). The pick is Holloway to pull away down the stretch, scoring a club-and-sub come Round 4.

Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov

Paulo Costa, who faces southpaw Roman Kopylov, is 5-1 opposite UFC-level lefties.

• Wins: Garreth McLellan, Oluwale Bamgbose, Johny Hendricks, Yoel Romero, Luke Rockhold
• Losses: Marvin Vettori

Despite initially leaning toward the favorite in Kopylov at first glance, I ended up on the other side after reviewing the tape.

Paulo Costa’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1946233162671202741

Aside from the fact that the majority of Costa’s wins in the UFC come against southpaws, “Borrachinha” appears to have a comfort and style in open-stance affairs that could provide some serious problems for Kopylov.

Kopylov’s counter hooks and kicks should have some real purchase early, but the Russian harbors horrible optics in the form of suspect stamina that could show itself if Costa is allowed to come forward and work the body like he usually does.

My prediction: Say what you will about Costa’s wild personality and somewhat recent inconsistencies, the Brazilian has traditionally been a durable competitor whose offensive output is difficult to dissuade.

Add in the fact that Costa is promising to ‘go back to his old ways’ in this post-USADA age, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the former title challenger dusts off his underrated ground skills to seal the deal this Saturday.

A stoppage is certainly on the table, but I’ll officially pick Costa to win by unanimous decision.

Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez

Kevin Holland, who faces southpaw Daniel Rodriguez at UFC 318 is officially 8-3-1 against dedicated, UFC-level southpaws.

• Wins: Geoff Neal, John Phillips, Gerald Meerschaert, Joaquin Buckley, Charlie Ontiveros, Tim Means, Michael Chiesa, Michal Oleksieczjuk
• Losses: Reinier De Ridder, Derek Brunson, Marvin Vettoir; No Contest: Kyle Daukaus

Although grappling was quietly the decider in a lot of the southpaw stats listed above, there’s no denying that Holland’s patented right hand is even more potent in these open-stance affairs.

Kevin Holland’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1946234697878773768

Holland is also much more active with his front teeps to the body when facing southpaws, almost using it as a supplement for his jab. That said, Holland’s kicking choices tend to open him up to counter opportunities.

My prediction: Say what you will about the increased jankiness of Rodriguez’s style, “D-Rod” still has the power and presence to return fire with authority.

The potential problem, however, is that Rodriguez’s speed and reactions have looked to decline in recent years. Couple that with Holland’s striking savvy and pinpoint accuracy, and I can’t help but see a straight punch landing down the pike for the self-proclaimed “Smack Man.”

The pick is Holland by knockout in Round 1.

Daniel Zellhuber vs. Michael Johnson

Daniel Zellhuber, who faces Michael Johnson at UFC 318, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws.

Zellhuber, who is still incredibly young in his career, will finally square off with his first southpaw in the octagon.

Michael Johnson tweet: https://x.com/fenoxsky/status/1945537938625892404

Considering that Zellhuber works nicely off the jab, I’ll be curious to see if the Mexican fighter makes the same mistake that most MMA fighters do in regards to not jabbing as much in open-stance affairs.

Although outside angles/outside-foot awareness is a real and important thing, said positioning becomes less important when a fighter can competently work their lead hand and pivot.

Luckily for Zellhuber, he has a dynamic arsenal he can pull from and works with a team at Xtreme Couture MMA that’s known for their ability to game plan and prepare fighters (namely Eric Nicksick).

My Prediction: Although Johnson is a southpaw who has made me money at the betting window as an underdog dating back to his victories over Gleison Tibau and Edson Barboza, it’s become increasingly difficult to trust the original “Blackzilian” as the years have gone on.

Aside from Johnson’s propensity to drop the ball down the stretch, the 39-year-old’s durability also appears to be decreasing at this stage of his career.

I don’t like the wide betting lines attached, but I’ll officially pick Zellhuber to fight smart and outpoint Johnson in a decision win.

Brendan Allen vs. Marvin Vettori

Brendan Allen, who faces Marvin Vettori at UFC 318, is officially 8-2 opposite UFC-level southpaws.

• Wins: Tom Breese, Kyle Daukaus, Krzysztof Jotko, Karl Roberson, Puno Soriano, Sam Alvey, Andre Muniz, Chris Curtis
• Losses: Chris Curtis, Eryk Anders

Akin to Holland’s sample size in a previous section, Allen’s positive southpaw record largely stems from grappling scenarios. That said, Allen also appears to be a natural fit for open-stance striking considering his love for going to the body.

Brendan Allen’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1946237366483702159

Similar to his middleweight contemporary Paulo Costa, Allen enjoys embedding his shins into his opponent’s stomachs with impunity and flowing off of said momentum. And if Allen crowds his punches by crashing into the clinch, the Louisiana native has a knack for clinch knees and closed-quarter combat that he can reliably shift to.

My prediction: Although Vettori appears to be a popular underdog selection this week, I suspect that anything short of a pressuring wrestle-fest will be problematic for the Italian fighter.

Despite southpaw counter-punching traditionally causing problems throughout Allen’s career, I’m not sure Vettori’s brand of striking fits the bill considering his recent lack of pressure (as well as tools like a check right hook).

For that reason, I’ll take Allen to edge out a decision that the judges will likely be split on.

Islam Dulatov vs. Adam Fugitt

Islam Dulatov, who faces Adam Fugitt at UFC 318, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws.

Although Dulatov appears to be a dynamic striker to boot, I’ll be curious to see if his straight punches are affected by the open-stance nature of the matchup.

Fugitt is another one of these janky welterweights who feel like they’re in their own little ‘devil’s rejects’ division, so don’t be shocked if the American can surprise Dulatov with something once the Chechen-born German slows down.

My prediction: Despite Fugitt being better than he’s given credit for, I’m not sure if he will last long enough to make a difference in this spot.

The pick is Dulatov by guillotine choke in Round 1.

Brunno Ferreira vs. Jackson McVey

Brunno Ferreira, who faces Jackson McVey at UFC 318, is officially 0-0 opposite UFC-level southpaws.

Despite steadily fighting for the UFC for nearly three years now, newcomer McVey will be Ferreira’s first official southpaw opponent in the octagon.

McVey will have a huge on-paper edge standing given this length and reach, but – aside from the fact that the American seems to prefer to apply himself within clinching range – Ferreira is a deceptively difficult fighter to get a beat on given his explosive footwork and ability to fight from both stances.

My prediction: Although the odds and experience tell you that it should be a clear pick for Ferreira, I wouldn’t be shocked if the underdog in McVey ends up being the one with his hand raised this weekend. That said, I’ll stick with the more proven product in Ferreira to survive the early storms en route to a knockout win in Round 2.

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