Southpaw Report: UFC 323
Hello and welcome to the ever-popular southpaw report, which can now be found here exclusively at Home of Fight!
Aside from the fact that most statistics you see on major broadcasts are drawn from a faulty well of information full of misinterpretation and human error, the statistical categories discussed generally lack proper sample sizes and contexts.
So, with that in mind, I try to provide unique, applicable and (hopefully) interesting stats in the form of my patent southpaw reports.
Here, I will do my best to provide you with everything from stats to written and visual analysis covering every fighter facing a dedicated southpaw on upcoming UFC cards.
UFC 323 offers an interesting list of southpaws, so let’s get started!
Chris Duncan vs. Terrance McKinney
Chris Duncan, who faces Terrance McKinney at UFC 323, is officially 1-0 against dedicated, UFC-level southpaws (beating Mateusz Rebecki).
Chris Duncan’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1997010491663908889?s=20
As pointed out by analyst Miguel Class in the tweet linked above, Duncan did a solid job of combining the threats of knees and elbows/punches to counterbalance each other.
Considering that southpaws are usually the ones who apply double-attack dynamics in open-stance affairs, Duncan’s approach impresses me more than your average orthodox fighter (something that I suspect the Scottish fighter can thank American Top Team and their large stable of lefties for).
Nevertheless, Duncan can start a bit slow sometimes and isn’t beyond getting caught cold, as he’ll need to be on his best behavior opposite a heavy hitter like McKinney.
My prediction: Although there is a clear path for McKinney early, the 3-minute phenom has a propensity to throw himself out of position that could cost him both on the feet and the floor against the likes of Duncan.
This late money coming in on McKinney admittedly has me a bit sketched out, but I’ll officially pick Duncan to survive the initial storm en route to a submission win in Round 2.
Fares Ziam vs. Nazim Sadykhov
Fares Ziam, who faces Nazim Sadykhov at UFC 323, is officially 1-2 against listed UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Claudio Puelles; Losses: Terrance McKinney, Don Madge).
Although there’s not a ton of striking samples to draw from in Ziam’s fights with southpaws, the French fighter shows some promising signs in open-stance affairs.
Fares Ziam’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1997042193996054767?s=20
Not only is Ziam among the small fraternity of orthodox fighters who actually jab southpaws, but the 28-year-old is also good at combining low kicks in conjunction with his lead hand.
However, like many orthodox fighters in open-stance affairs, Ziam appears less comfortable leading in this sort of stance pairing, which, in turn, can bring down the normal levels of output or aggression of said competitor.
My prediction: Despite my suspicions that Sadykhov’s aggression will bring out the best in a more counter-centric competitor like Ziam, this feels like a fight that could be close on all fronts.
That said, I’m not sure Ziam has faced a dangerous southpaw like Sadykhov before, and I suspect that his propensity to eat body shots could bode badly for him opposite a fighter like the “Black Wolf.”
There are plenty of ways this fight could go, but I’ll officially pick Sadykhov to force a stoppage via strikes by Round 3.
Brunno Ferreira vs. Marvin Vettori
Brunno Ferreira, who faces southpaw Marvin Vettori at UFC 323, is officially 1-0 against UFC-level southpaws (Wins: Jackson McVey).
Jackson McVey’s short-notice nature and skills discrepancy aside, it’s safe to say that I wasn’t too impressed with Ferreira’s approach to fighting southpaws.
Brunno Ferreira’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1997027284126237176?s=20
As seen in the clip linked above, Ferreira shows outside-foot awareness to a fault as he attempts to turn the octagon into the teacup ride at Disneyland due to the sheer amount of circles he makes around McVey.
Ferreira’s left limbs also apparently disappear as far as striking options go, so don’t be shocked to see him switch stances needlessly to continue throwing from the same side.
Add in the fact that Ferreira gave his back standing due to his discomfort in the southpaw sample above, and I can’t help but feel more confident in the unkillable Italian’s chances.
My prediction: Should Vettori’s top-tier chin remain intact amidst this current losing streak, then I suspect that he gets back in the win column with what ends up looking like a buy-low spot in hindsight.
Vettori wins by decision more often than not, but I suspect that a submission win is firmly on the table considering that Ferreira missed weight on Friday morning.
Edson Barboza vs. Jailin Turner
Edson Barboza, who faces southpaw Jailin Turner, is officially 3-2 opposite UFC-level lefties (Wins: Evan Dunham, Beneil Dariush, Makwan Amirkhani; Losses: Michael Johnson, Bryce Mitchell), but has also seen the stance plenty opposite stance-switchers like Giga Chikadze and Dan Hooker.
Edson Barboza’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1997010223031292099?s=20
As seen in the extensive sample linked above, Barboza counters a lot more in open-stance affairs.
Barboza is also good about adjusting his shot selections to inside leg kicks, and he’s not beyond going to the body with impunity. That said, left-sided strikes and consistent pressure remain the common culprits for Barboza.
My Prediction: Although I came into this fight looking for any excuse to fire on Barboza at big plus money, I have a hard time seriously backing him after re-watching his tape for this report.
I’d pick the legendary Brazilian if he were a bit younger, but Barboza is undeniably in the late winter of his career.
Even though Turner is a volatile question mark for his own reasons, the American carries some undeniable tools that I suspect hurt Barboza early and often this weekend (even if Turner fails to consistently pressure).
Though part of me will still be looking at Barbosa’s decision props, the official pick is for Turner to win by knockout in Round 1.
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