Photo by Ed Mulholland/Zuffa LLC
A new era for UFC begins on Paramount at UFC 324, and it’ll fittingly take place at the promotion’s most common location for numbered cards. We lost a title fight, but stars and veterans are lined all over this night of expected violence.
If you’re new here, this is my betting primer. I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for a half decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model that tries to find the answer using data for fighters with at least 30 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.
Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’m going to be right; I just want to get it right, and you’ll get my best effort every week.
I invite you to join the fan club of Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed or would rather read on Friday at the office, I’ve got you.
From a betting perspective, let’s preview UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett, taking place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday night. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.
UFC 324 Betting Picks and Props
Adam Fugitt vs. Ty Miller
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Fugitt | Eligible |
| Miller | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
By all measures, Adam Fugitt has outperformed expectations in UFC. It might still be over with a projected loss here.
Fugitt is a well-rounded grinder, using his array of kicks to dispatch Josh Quinlan via split decision after dismantling Yusaku Kinoshita with his wrestling. The problem is those two have been cut from UFC, and the Oregon native has been finished by all three current roster members that he’s faced.
The fighter’s +0.05 striking success rate (SSR) is incredibly plain with striking (51%) and takedown (50%) defense that are gettable. The former will be the chief concern against boxer Ty Miller.
Miller might be a fighter classically overvalued off Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) for dominating a non-UFC-caliber fighter, and New York’s Jimmy Drago certainly seemed outclassed to let Miller post a +27 striking differential. At just 25, Miller’s jab controlled a fight where it definitely seemed like he was mitigating risk. He’s got a massive frame for 170 pounds that surely carries more pop than we saw.
Obviously, Fugitt’s defined ceiling isn’t an organization priority, so this is a hopeful prop-up spot for UFC — which is a growing trend for how they treat quality prospects.
Miller’s striking volume (16.47 significant strike attempts per 15 minutes) was pretty special on the show, so it’s probable he delivers on this opportunity by overwhelming Fugitt in boxing range. The veteran’s attrition is mounting quickly with each loss by finish coming sooner than the last.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Miller is a big, strong dude for the division. Fugitt’s waning durability could be perfect for him to snatch an early finish, and I don’t think matchmakers rate any sort of submission threat from the underdog here.
Josh Hokit vs. Denzel Freeman
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Hokit | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
| Freeman | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
I wanted to go much longer without seeing Denzel Freeman fight again, but the 34 year old doesn’t have much time to waste — even at heavyweight.
Freeman’s performance in Qatar against fellow newcomer Marek Buljo, who was immediately cut after the fight, was pretty awful. He landed 62% of his significant strikes but didn’t advance much to land just 49 total. The wrestler also didn’t score a takedown. I expected several. Turning to 2026, he’ll at least need to have his defense on point against former NFL fullback Josh Hokit.
Hokit has stomped two overwhelmed foes between DWCS and a debut against Max Gimenes (0-1 UFC) that felt like a set-up spot. His pro-wrestler-like interviews after the fight are probably why. A promotion starved for starpower is looking for someone who can walk how he talks, but the level of competition makes his 12.80 takedowns per 15 minutes seem pretty hollow.
I’m surprised to see this matchup in Hokit’s bracket when there are dozens of heavyweights that can’t grapple, and Freeman has legitimate experience in LFA, PFL, and now UFC. He submitted Steven Asplund in his last bout with the former.
While I’d straight pick the -230 favorite to win, this is definitely a spot where blind tickets on the favorite could end up going south quickly. This is the hardest fight of Hokit’s career by a country mile.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: If you like Hokit, his R2/R3 prop is +240. Freeman has experience, a longer history of submission danger, and general durability in his corner, so if Hokit wins, it’s likely being the superior athlete and taking advantage of the underdog’s average heavyweight cardio.
Michael Johnson vs. Alexander Hernandez
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Johnson | 41.31% | 16.95% | 14.41% | 2.54% | 24.36% |
| Hernandez | 58.69% | 27.59% | 17.37% | 10.23% | 31.10% |
I’d have thought you were nuts if you told me a fight between Alexander Hernandez and Michael Johnson found a numbered card in 2026, but both find themselves on win streaks of at least three.
Hernandez will look to pick up teammate Brandon Royval, who lost the last bout of 2025, for “The Burn Factory” team of Factory X Muay Thai defects. To end 2025, “The Great Ape” showcased a bit of power unseen for nearly a decade with (T)KO wins over Chase Hooper and Diego Ferreira, but we know his story at this point. His +0.00 SSR — exactly flat — is a story of wild ups and downs between two weight classes.
“The Menace” is an even more improbable comeback story that was capped by one of the year’s largest upsets over Daniel Zellhuber. Johnson is 16-15 in a long career where his hand speed and boxing can compete with anyone, but he’s 2-9 to submissions in UFC and has been on the wrong end of some devastating KOs.
Volatility can only widen this moneyline so much, but the younger Hernandez also figures to have some sort of grappling upside of these two. The recent knockout binge for both is probably unsustainable with knockdown rates (KD%) south of 0.85%, so I’m showing a bit of sketchy value on the over despite Johnson’s chin being prone to dying out of nowhere. This is a tough fight to bet.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I’m sick that I put this in the “safe” parlay at -170, but Hernandez’s moneyline is well in value range now. Maybe it’s a bad weight cut, but he’s the significantly more reliable customer at full strength, and I like the model’s submission prop (+1500) shout given Johnson’s woeful shortcomings in that area.
Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Perez | 42.99% | 16.37% | 8.26% | 8.11% | 26.61% |
| Johnson | 57.01% | 32.23% | 16.26% | 15.98% | 24.78% |
This is particularly interesting matchmaking between veterans at flyweight.
Alex Perez‘s career has been marred by inactivity, but here’s his fifth fight since the start of 2024 as he tries to get the bad taste of a submission loss to Asu Almabayev out of his mouth. He was winning the bout before a guillotine choke in Round 3, but “a key mistake” is the story of Perez’s tenure. He made them against Deiveson Figueiredo and Alexandre Pantoja to tumble out of title contention despite clearly being a high-level guy whose +0.80 SSR and takedown accuracy (48%) shows a really well-rounded, accomplished fighter against all others.
Similarly, Charles Johnson has these show-stopping wins over prospects like Lone’er Kavanaugh and Josh Van, but then he’ll lose a close fight as a favorite and can’t ever quite make a run. “Inner G” is now 35 years old with perhaps one last shot up the ranks where a win over the current champ could serve him well.
Johnson, though, just hasn’t made the most of his physical gifts in length and reach (70″) in high-level matchups to only post a +0.40 SSR. Plus, he’s sort of on this run where his last five opponents all haven’t brought a true wrestling threat; all entered the fight below 1.00 takedowns per 15 minutes. Perez (2.28) got the better of Almabayev on certain entries.
Submission danger is always a red flag for the underdog at this point, but Johnson (0.4 attempts per 15) doesn’t bring much. From there, Perez is 12-2 by decision as a pro. Johnson is 7-7.
Historically in their careers, Perez has staved off a career-defining loss in this exact position, and Johnson has failed to accumulate that breakthrough win. It sort of feels like this matchup could lead to Perez squeaking by on the cards and keeping that trend intact.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Johnson lacks the grappling danger that has done in otherwise-impressive performances from Perez historically. Perez’s decision prop (+260) is tremendous value given these two’s historical success going the distance. This line feels like extreme bias toward a larger fighter.
Nikita Krylov vs. Modestas Bukauskas
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Krylov | 58.95% | 45.14% | 26.05% | 19.09% | 13.81% |
| Bukauskas | 41.05% | 21.97% | 12.25% | 9.72% | 19.08% |
Nikita Krylov‘s stock couldn’t get much lower.
Krylov has been a fixture in the 205-pound rankings for a decade, but the author of five UFC wins by submission has taken his chances at distance in consecutive fights with Dominick Reyes and Bogdan Guskov — and lost in Round 1. Does he get back to a grappling-oriented approach here?
“The Miner” has reason to believe in his hands, per a +1.73 SSR and a 4-3 record in UFC to the knockout. He’s just opened the door to variance that hasn’t worked well for him. Even if he tries the striking approach again, I think I’m left no choice but to back the 33 year old against a surging Modestas Bukauskas.
Bukauskas has won six of his last seven, including three fights by finish. There’s no doubt “The Baltic Gladiator” has improved since returning to UFC in 2023, but it is worth noting five of those six wins have come against fighters no longer on the roster, and the Ion Cutelaba exception was a generous decision.
If this fight happened in 2023, Krylov — fresh off a dominant decision over Volkan Oezdemir — would have been a -800 favorite. He’s had to fight in the rankings as Bukauskas has collected wins at the bottom of the barrel. The Lithuanian’s 0.28 KD% just is not a supreme power threat, either, despite taking note Krylov’s chin has collapsed in consecutive fights.
The outcome of this fight has a chance to tilt me off the planet if Krylov plays around at distance with his chin up in the air early again, but almost every other path this fight takes should belong to the Ukrainian.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Krylov’s last chance comes on Saturday. I played his moneyline at +130, but it’s really going to be playable at any number. I’m not as certain Bukauskas has dramatically improved as much as scraped the bottom of the barrel at 205.
Ateba Gautier vs. Andrey Pulyaev
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Gautier | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
| Pulyaev | Eligible |
Shameful. The UFC’s handling of Ateba Gautier is shameful.
Cameroon’s middleweight prospect is a budding star, but he’s being fed at a rate unseen this side of Bo Nickal. Gautier’s three UFC wins are 0-8 in UFC overall. While you do see the power, technical prowess, and upside, he’s not been tested an ounce, and that will barely change against Russia’s Andrey Pulyaev.
Pulyaev was a +205 underdog on DWCS before being tossed into the ring in a fight where he ran for his life against Christian Leroy Duncan to post a -55 striking differential. He, then, staved off early grappling danger from Nick Klein (0-2 UFC) to collect his first UFC win and barely justify a match with Gautier.
The problem is Pulyaev’s 48% striking defense leaves him drawing dead against a video-game-like 3.96 KD% of Gautier, whose forward pressure and aggressiveness is on a different level than the more measured, technical CLD.
UFC hopes this is a massacre. Given the step up in competition, I could easily see this being the longest career outing for “The Silent Assassin” by a good margin.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Pulyaev’s skills were on display to survive 15 minutes with Duncan, and Gautier’s competition has been significantly worse than what the Russian offers. I’ll play Gautier & Fight Starts R2 at +125 to encompass a later finish or decision at plus money.
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Nurmagomedov | 72.77% | 31.42% | 14.89% | 16.53% | 41.35% |
| Figueiredo | 27.23% | 12.73% | 5.68% | 7.05% | 14.50% |
Umar Nurmagomedov shouldn’t need this fight to earn a title shot at 135, but I think this is more to extinguish a hopeful Deiveson Figueiredo that keeps demanding one.
Figueiredo pulled a massive upset over Montel Jackson in a fight where the offense of “Quik” was nowhere to be found. This was after a blowout loss in nine minutes to Cory Sandhagen, whom Umar already handled pretty comfortably. That’s why this moneyline sits where it does, and the technical matchup might be even more uninspiring.
“Deus de Guerra” hasn’t really faced a wrestling threat at bantamweight, and his 57% takedown D is pretty poor with that the case. Sandhagen got his stoppage on the mat, and Jackson went 1-for-1 on takedowns and probably wins the fight with any real commitment to them. Nurmagomedov’s last name is enough to verify his wrestling credentials, I think.
This fight is a poison pill to my model. It always underrates Umar’s lack of offense and overrates Figgy’s metrics that were largely accumulated at flyweight. He’s been a significantly more beatable, plain fighter in his new weight class, so I expect Umar to roll much more convincingly than he did against Mario Bautista.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: My model just won’t get this fight right because of Umar’s lack of counting stats plus Figueiredo’s success at flyweight. I think the right thing to do is fade Umar’s decision streak and Figgy’s fortunate previous win with inside-the-distance props behind Khabib’s protégé.
Arnold Allen vs. Jean Silva
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Allen | 46.45% | 21.20% | 16.28% | 4.91% | 25.25% |
| Silva | 53.55% | 30.52% | 21.91% | 8.61% | 23.03% |
One of the most stunning main events of 2025, to me, was Jean Silva‘s loss to Diego Lopes.
Silva’s 5’7″ frame and lack of size truly cost him for the first time in a round where Lopes big brother’d him, and that damage is probably what led to a Round 2 stoppage loss. “Lord” went from a title contender with sparkling metrics to a pedestrian +0.10 SSR with minimal wrestling threat, and I’ve never loved the in-fight antics and lack of focus.
The Fighting Nerds‘ fall from grace in 2025 came for nearly every non-Oleksiejczuk fighter in the stable, and Arnold Allen can absolutely deliver another loss to the team. “Almighty” has already been in the cage and produced competitive fights with Movsar Evloev and Max Holloway, which is about as good as it gets at 145. Even so, Allen’s +0.54 SSR is superior, and he’s been defensively responsible when striking (61%) or wrestling (75%).
More than anything, Arnie hasn’t been dropped in 13 fights entering a bout where he’s the larger guy, is more efficient on a per-minute basis, and has three ranked wins to Silva’s one. The one ranked guy “Lord” has defeated at this point was Kevin Vallejos way back on DWCS.
You can favor Silva to win, but this moneyline is insanity, and the “method of victory” markets are even squishier without any sample of how Allen might lose inside the distance.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: This is one of those lines that is so unbalanced that it feels like a setup spot or something we don’t know. Obviously, Allen’s defensive efficiency can make this a dogfight, so I’m backing his +3.5 spread (+110) expecting him to be the most stiff challenge of Silva’s career.
Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunas
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Silva | 64.04% | 20.98% | 13.15% | 7.83% | 43.06% |
| Namajunas | 35.96% | 13.48% | 5.03% | 8.46% | 22.48% |
As promised, I’ll charge my phone and make sure to fire up Candy Crush. It’s Natalia Silva fight week.
I’ve never dreaded watching a great fighter more than the Brazilian, whose style of avoidant kickboxing matches her bubbly, god-fearing personality. Despite technically outclassing five straight fighters in decision wins, she’s always skirting the outside, winning on points, and never attempting to create true violence. I can’t deny her skill (+2.58 SSR), but it is so aggravating to watch.
Frankly, I thought she was next up to likely defeat Valentina Shevchenko in that manner, but she took it upon herself to step in on short notice against Rose Namajunas after Alexa Grasso pulled out of this main card bout. We’ll see if it’s actually a risk, though.
“Thug Rose” is 3-2 at flyweight, going to a decision in all five bouts. Namajunas’ lack of identity on the feet (+0.22 SSR) or wrestling (1.49 takedowns per 15) has left her hunting critical weaknesses her whole career, and Silva doesn’t have one — especially not by way of a 92% takedown defense.
When mentally picturing the fighter to dethrone Silva, it’s a physically imposing brute that doesn’t let her run away — like Maycee Barber or Manon Fiorot at their best. Rose, a former strawweight champ, is small for the division.
Silva should cruise here, and despite my qualms, my model is identifying that Silva still has been underperforming her finishing potential for truly how great she’s been. I just don’t know if I can pull the trigger on someone I see as a historical outlier of not trying for one.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: UFC finishes can come via variance like injuries, exhaustion, or bad weight cuts. Even though she’s not actively seeking one, Silva has been fighting too well to not run into one at some point. I’ll sprinkle ITD (+420) and R2/R3 knockout props in extremely tiny fashion.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Derrick Lewis
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Cortes-Acosta | 64.89% | 36.18% | 30.52% | 5.67% | 28.70% |
| Lewis | 35.11% | 12.74% | 12.53% | 0.21% | 22.37% |
In May 2024, Waldo Cortes-Acosta was a giant underdog to Robelis Despaigne, a 6’7″ boogeyman that no one lasted three minutes with regionally. “Salsa Boy” showed a new wrinkle to dominate him with his wrestling, and it marked a new era of Waldo’s career.
Including that bout, Cortes-Acosta has won seven of eight fights with, truly, almost every box checked for a title run. He’s a great athlete with an excellent chin that has developed plus takedown defense (72%). Back-to-back knockout wins of Ante Delija and Shamil Gaziev have shown an increase in power recently. He took the Gaziev fight on four days’ notice in Qatar, too.
At this point, I’m more interested with how Cortes-Acosta fares in the cage with a Tom Aspinall, Alexander Volkov, or Ciryl Gane. He just barely lost out to Sergei Pavlovich’s power threat in the top five, too. Derrick Lewis should be a win in some fashion.
“The Black Beast” is a fan favorite, but even said fans realize what he is at 40 years old. Lewis is a boom-or-bust knockout artist with no real grappling or cardio. He’s lost five of his last nine and used a clever flying knee to avoid what was, stylistically, probably a sixth loss in any extended fight against Marcos Rogerio de Lima.
Lewis’ 1.65 KD% does come with a bit of a dilemma for strikers, though. Pavlovich and Tai Tuivasa trusted their chin and power, putting Derrick out in short order. However, we’ve seen others — like Francis Ngannou — have trouble mitigating risk, and Waldo’s resume is not short on fights that were longer than they needed to be.
I’m not sure the time frame in which Cortes-Acosta gets his hand raised, but the fact he’s 8-0 to (T)KO outcomes as a pro and has never been dropped in UFC are both excellent signs that he’ll find a way to pass this test.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Lewis appears to have shown up in really great shape before this fight with high stakes for both men. The over and Cortes-Acosta’s decision prop (+300) are good value in a fight that I believe underwhelms expectations.
Sean O’Malley vs. Song Yadong
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| O’Malley | 64.43% | 30.38% | 26.52% | 3.86% | 34.04% |
| Yadong | 35.57% | 18.16% | 12.09% | 6.07% | 17.41% |
So much for a Sean O’Malley “buy low” window. “Suga” is -215 in his first non-title bout since 2022.
There’s no doubt that O’Malley is one of UFC’s brightest stars, and they’d love to get him moving toward a rematch with Petr Yan, who he defeated via controversial split decision in that same fight. O’Malley’s polarizing personality probably masks the fact that, at a +2.82 SSR, he’s an extremely high-level striker with a full compliment of weapons. It has been the 61% takedown D that let him down against Merab Dvalishvili and Yan, who landed six takedowns in his bout with the phenom.
That gives Song Yadong a path to victory as a rising star himself. He’s already headlined four UFC main events in search of his first title opportunity, but he just hasn’t had that breakthrough performance. Yan and Cory Sandhagen dispatched “The Kung Fu Kid” in convincing fashion, and — by no fault of his own — the ranked wins over Henry Cejudo, Chris Gutierrez, and Ricky Simon he earned at the time haven’t aged well.
Yadong has shown some wrestling, but 0.61 takedowns per 15 minutes isn’t a convincing output to say he’ll steamroll O’Malley. Rather, he’s lost the distance striking differential in three of his last five.
From a per-minute perspective, O’Malley lands at an 18% higher clip with his strikes. I also am not sure Yadong’s average striking defense (55%) has faced a powerful technician like the favorite when Yan, Sandhagen, and Gutierrez are all guys not really putting anyone’s lights out.
I like my model’s verdict that O’Malley’s knockout prop is probably underrated when UFC handpicked this matchup for their prized possession. A (T)KO of Yadong easily thrusts “Suga” back into a title fight that he can absolutely win, and that’d be a golden outcome to open the Paramount era.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Yadong is the aggressive, defensively suspect matchup that O’Malley needed to re-enter the fold at 135 pounds. While this fight goes the distance a majority of the time, did UFC handpick a knockout (+320) for their brightest star here? I wouldn’t rule it out as oddsmakers seem to be doing.
Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Gaethje | 29.28% | 12.13% | 10.02% | 2.10% | 17.16% |
| Pimblett | 70.72% | 60.88% | 26.84% | 34.04% | 9.83% |
If the promotion’s biggest star isn’t Sean O’Malley, it’s Paddy Pimblett.
“The Baddy” is the more upbeat, less cynical version of Conor McGregor where his UK accent and trash talk have earned a beloved place among UFC fans. Even expecting big things since his debut, I’m a bit surprised that Pimblett is 7-0 in UFC and a deserved, heavy favorite in a title opportunity.
Pimblett’s last fight with Michael Chandler, a former elite wrestler with Bellator, really verified that the Englishman’s size and grappling skills are a massive problem for everyone in the division — Ilia Topuria’s smaller frame included. He has noticeably put on weight in each progressing fight, and each performance has also been more dominant than the last. He’s squarely in his prime at 31.
Now, Paddy’s striking defense (42%) is still a mess, and he’s made a career out of overcoming early drops. I wouldn’t take my chances against Justin Gaethje.
Gaethje was a strategic pull for the hopes that the Topuria-Paddy feud is settled in the octagon later this year. The 37-year-old has said “title fight or retirement” for months, but he really doesn’t deserve one when Max Holloway dominated him between two close decision wins over Rafael Fiziev.
“The Highlight” is a warrior with heavy hands, but he’s too willing to brawl, per a 51% striking defense and -0.59 SSR. Pimblett’s power is underrated, but then there’s the more conventionally known problem in this fight. Gaethje is 0-2 in UFC via submissions, and both losses came in title chances. Here’s another against a massive fighter who averages 1.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes.
If Pimblett’s promise that “Scousers don’t get knocked out” is true, Gaethje’s 68% takedown D will have a hard time keeping space against the grappler, and I’m also a bit worried about Justin’s mounting damage via all these wars.
Those concerns are validated by the model, which really only points toward the underdog in an extended situation where Pimblett fatigue from grappling.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: While not being far from moneyline value, Pimblett’s R1/R2/R3 prop (+115) is good enough for me. I’ve actually got significant questions about his cardio from the Ferguson fight, and Gaethje is historically a guy that builds as the fight goes. I don’t like my model’s (T)KO verdict (relative to odds) when Gaethje has been so hapless in grappling exchanges, though.
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