UFC Perth Prelims Primer: Fight Predictions, Props, and Model Results for Della Maddalena vs. Prates

If you’re new here, this is my prelim betting primer for UFC Perth. The main card breakdowns will be available in the PrizePicks Playbook on Saturday.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’ll be right; I just want to get it right, and I’ll give you my best effort every week.

I invite you to join the fan club for Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed it or would rather read, I’ve got you covered.

From a betting perspective, let’s preview the prelims for UFC Perth: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, taking place at the RAC Arena in Perth, Western Australia on Saturday. The fights start at 4:00 a.m. EST.

UFC Perth: Della Maddalena vs. Prates Prelim Betting Picks and Props

 

Dom Mar Fan vs. Kody Steele

Lightweight (155 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Mar Fan	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Steele	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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I was watching Dom Mar Fan‘s appearance on Road to UFC (RTU), wondering if I could take the ‘dog shot on Kody Steele — only to find out Steele is a -210 favorite.

It seems as if UFC fans don’t want to get it right on Steele; they want to be right. The former top prospect on Season 8 of Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) is infamous for his opponent having a panic attack that canceled Dana White’s favorite fight of the night, but he was able to stop a Cage Warrior vet, Chasen Blair, to earn a spot in the UFC after a rebooking.

From there, Steele still represents the most lopsided win in Rongzhu’s (3-3 UFC) promotional career, surviving a -66 striking differential in which he looked out of his league. Mar Fan is an unknown of RTU, but he showed enough to prove this line is malarky.

Mar Fan stuffed 9 of 10 takedowns from Sangwook Kim, who actually fought Rongzhu more competitively than Steele. He also posted a +31 striking differential and landed 57% of his shots.

Steele is 31, so he’s not this young, developing guy. He roughly is what he is on the wrong side of a four-inch reach deficit. It’s not that I’d have an enormous amount of confidence in Mar Fan in a straight pick situation, but this isn’t one, and he’s got the home crowd behind him.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: The line is pretty insane when Steele showed no tangible skills in a forgiving matchup — if one exists at 155. Mar Fan’s boxing combinations, sprawl, and general balance are worth a dart at +175, but I can’t see him finishing the blockheaded American.

Jonathan Micallef vs. Themba Gorimbo

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Micallef	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Gorimbo	Eligible

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I have to hand it to Themba Gorimbo for maximizing his UFC career, but he’s swimming upstream to avoid a third straight loss, which would thrust him onto the roster bubble.

Gorimbo is the definition of an athletic grinder without much skill. Most of his +1.40 striking success rate (SSR) came through a 2024 battering of Niko Price, which looks worse in hindsight given he didn’t finish the fragile, now-retired veteran. “Mamba” has gotten trapped in submissions twice, too. All of his wins look the same, using his wrestling (5.07 takedowns per 15 minutes) to overwhelm foes without cardio to keep pace.

He’s now 35, and I honestly wonder if he might be a bit older than that, as we see with other pro athletes from Zimbabwe. I think he’s fading fast as he enters a matchup with scorching welterweight prospect Jonathan Micallef.

Micallef’s quick tap on DWCS didn’t say much, but running through Kevin Jousset at distance and outgrappling Oban Elliott to find a submission definitely has. Importantly for this matchup, Micallef’s 75% takedown D held up well against Elliott, and there are front chokes in the arsenal as a secondary wrestling defense.

I just can’t see Gorimbo letting up four submission attempts in his last two fights and surviving Micallef, but there’s also the distance striking part of the equation, which is virtually untested against anyone besides Price, and I think the Aussie has a huge edge there, too.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Matty convinced me a little here. I expected Micallef’s sub prop to hover around +150 and (T)KO to be like +450. With the numbers closer together, I think leaning into the Aussie’s tendency to snatch the neck is indeed the move. There’s a massive athleticism gap early at UFC Perth, too.

Ben Johnston vs. Wes Schultz

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Johnston	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Schultz	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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There’s this tier of LFA middleweights that just keeps giving UFC bettors fits. I keep finding great value here because I know Dylan Budka is bad. Azamat Bekoev is bad. Wes Schultz is bad, too.

Schultz lost a decision to Bukda, which — while MMA math isn’t always a zero-sum game — pretty much says it all. “Party Time” has an excellent brand between the nickname, the long hair, and the submission-heavy (1.1 attempts per 15 minutes) attack, but the entire casing is pretty empty. He’s landed just 25% of his takedown attempts so far and has been proven horrible at distance, as evidenced by his -0.37 SSR.

That’s why a 35-year-old Ben Johnston, debuting, is favored. Johnston is a local legend in Australia’s External MMA promotion, the same one that brought us Quillan Salkilld, Steve Erceg, and more. He might get one of the bigger crowd pops of the evening.

Training with City Kickboxing, the 6’4″ Johnston has good fundamentals behind a jab and a low kick. Notably, four of his five pro wins have come via submission, but the fact that he didn’t even have hooks in for this choke shows the competition wasn’t ideal.

Really, it’s just the fact that a BJJ base might keep him safe against Schultz, who has very little to offer otherwise. A fan favorite is an underdog to a fighter who hasn’t fought regionally in two years. When Vegas tells you something, believe them.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I’d argue Johnston’s knockout or decision prop (+250) could be the best individual bet on the card. The Aussie’s Tapology page is a fib; he’s a striker who has snatched low-level necks. Paired with durability and distance concerns for “Party Time”, the veteran is a favorite off a huge layoff for a reason.

Colby Thicknesse vs. Vince Morales

Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win By Finish	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Thicknesse	61.93%	18.72%	6.58%	12.14%	43.20%
Morales	38.07%	11.55%	4.90%	6.65%	26.52%

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A human element of me wants to see Vince Morales get a much-needed win after five UFC losses in a row, but this is yet another tough task against Colby Thicknesse in his own backyard.

“Vandetta” has lost them all by unanimous decision and most by losing the grappling exchanges, ceding 10 takedowns over this stretch. Morales’ adjustment in his second UFC tenure has seemed to be a ramping up of the submission threat, posting five official attempts in his last two fights. The problem is none have been successful, and I think that’s just his archetype.

At a high-level glance, Morales’ physicality is just lacking. His last knockdown came in December 2021. He’s shown immense issues with calf kicks. I don’t think trying to squeeze dudes out is going to work either, especially when Thicknesse, 26, has never been tapped as a pro nor ceded in attempts through two UFC bouts.

“Slickness” is in an improvement window, so it speaks volumes that he already went off the deep end against Ilia’s brother, Aleksandre Topuria, and nearly won on short notice. Josias Musasa (0-2 UFC) was a chin check that he passed with flying colors.

Training with Joe Lopez, the longtime coach of Alexander Volkanovski, I expect Thicknesse to continue to improve. I honestly think my model might be a little too high on his finishing danger, given that Morales has survived against so many top-shelf athletes, but he’s also 35 and has gone through some wars.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: It’s interesting the model already caught a dub here. I thought this line would close more like a pick ’em, but Thicknesse has taken sharp money all week. I actually think he’s a more well-rounded, talented prospect than Elijah Smith or Raul Rojas, so don’t rule out a stoppage.

Jacob Malkoun vs. Gerald Meerschaert

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	Win By Finish	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Malkoun	76.77%	52.58%	30.18%	22.39%	24.19%
Meerschaert	23.23%	13.44%	4.48%	8.96%	9.79%

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I’ve called this betting market “blood from a turnip” all week. There is no value left in Jacob Malkoun‘s prop market despite these heavy model verdicts.

Gerald Meerschaert is just a tough sell for actually winning fights in 2026. A -0.51 SSR has been his undoing his whole career. Fading athleticism has sapped his offensive wrestling. At this point, he’s exclusively an opportunistic back-snatcher or a guy who’ll pull guard and hope to survive. Expect GM3’s 42% takedown D to get worse as he ages.

This is probably the end of the line when Australia’s Malkoun is the better boxer, better wrestler, better athlete, and has the better gas tank in his backyard. There’s quite literally no chance Meerschaert has other than snatching an opportunistic submission attempt, and Malkoun has never even allowed an attempt in eight UFC starts — much less gotten caught by one.

If I had to guess, I think Meerschaert took this bout opposite Malkoun’s pillow fists (0.26% knockdown rate) as a means of a safer swan song than most matchups. That’s why the overpriced betting line looks as it does; I just made a tiny play for entertainment purposes.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: GM3 getting cleaned out in the first round in consecutive bouts left a bit of value on length in this fight. In general, Malkoun’s default tendency to wrestle will probably keep Meerschaert safer than he should be. I played Malkoun’s R3/DEC prop (+130) because I expect the weight miss to also increase GM3’s durability and takedown resistance.

Junior Tafa vs. Kevin Christian

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Tafa	Eligible
Christian	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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Kevin Christian, being one of the worst fighters I’ve ever seen and, simultaneously, coming back at just +180 to beat Junior Tafa, is both hysterical and appropriate.

I still feel robbed to this day that Christian, as a -135 favorite, was getting mopped by Francisco Mazzeo on Season 8 of DWCS before a Hail Mary. A second-round submission off his back earned him a contract, and the 6’7″ Brazilian took over a year off to round out his skill set…and still get slimed out via club and sub by Billy Elekana (3-1 UFC).

Elekana was dropped by Tafa, which I think is the genesis of this line. Christian’s 44% striking defense also comes with his chin in the air like a giraffe, and bettors believe Tafa can find it.

“The Juggernaut” better find it. He’s lost three of his last four fights by submission in ground exchanges. Valter Walker rolled for a leg, Tuco Tokkos beat him pillar to post, and Elekana overcame that early adversity the minute the fight hit the ground.

My biggest issue with Junior is that I don’t believe he carries his brother’s power. A 1.12% knockdown rate (KD%) is good, but it’s not elite when efficiency, cardio, and grappling grade out closer to nightmarish.

This is a “Sophie’s choice” fight where Tafa will quickly find the chin, or Christian will somehow get this to the ground and tap him, and whichever one I back will be what doesn’t happen. However, I will say, I give Christian’s length and jab a bit more of a pulse in an extended fight than I would Tafa’s chances on the ground. At an underdog price, that’s fine, I suppose.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Christian might genuinely also be the better striker here if he can avoid the bomb. Tafa as a -200ish favorite but +160 to score a first-round knockout has to be wrong. It’s his only path, and if this fight hits the ground, Christian is a better submission threat than Tokkos or Elekana.

Cam Rowston vs. Robert Bryczek

Middleweight (185 pounds) – Featured Prelim

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Rowston	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Bryczek	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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Cam Rowston gets the second straight featured prelim spot in Australia as one of its brightest prospects.

This seems like an advantageous spot for him, but Rowston has a way of making things interesting. Cody Brundage clipped him in Round 1 back in February, but — as Brundage is one to do — the underdog faded and allowed a sad sequence of ground-and-pound, leading to a second (T)KO for “The Giraffe” in two UFC appearances.

He’s come a long way since a wrestling-based loss to Torrez Finney on DWCS, but Finney’s granite chin and low center of gravity are kind of a nightmare matchup for the 6’3″ middleweight. That weakness is on the back burner against Polish boxer Robert Bryczek.

Bryczek got a Round 3 stoppage as part of the perpetually sad late-career descent from Brad Tavares, which was a bit of a stunner after losing to Ihor Potieria (2-6 UFC) at distance in his UFC debut. We’ve yet to see any wrestling from him, and he’s exclusively a technician with his hands, landing only 8 leg strikes in nearly 30 octagon minutes to date.

Considering a three-inch reach gap that is effectively longer because of three inches in height, Bryczek will try to find Rowston’s chin, but the Aussie has proven durable with all of this fight’s grappling upside.

I’d be stunned if the standard boxing combinations from Bryczek derailed Rowston when — just inside the first five minutes — Brundage has a more varied and dangerous kickboxing attack. It’d take a pretty disastrous gameplan for the favorite to lose this fight.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I thought this was an appropriate spot to deploy a point spread for Rowston (-125) when he’s just better everywhere. Bryczek packs a punch, but outside of trading blows in a brawl, Rowston is bigger, the more diverse striker, has all the grappling upside, and I trust his cardio more. Late-finish props are solid for him at UFC Perth.