Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC 316
UFC 316 is set to electrify the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, this Saturday, headlined by a pair of high-stakes title fights that promise drama and elite action. In the main event, bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili looks to cement his legacy with a second win over former titleholder Sean O’Malley. O’Malley, determined to reclaim his belt after a tough loss nine months ago, has overhauled his lifestyle and training, vowing to leave no excuses in this pivotal rematch. Dvalishvili, meanwhile, is riding one of the division’s most impressive winning streaks, and another victory would solidify his status among the all-time greats at 135 pounds.
The co-main event features a fascinating clash as two-time women’s bantamweight champion Julianna Peña defends her crown against Kayla Harrison, the dominant former PFL lightweight champion and Olympic judo gold medalist. Harrison’s aggressive grappling and physicality present a unique challenge for Peña, who thrives as an underdog and has a knack for pulling off upsets.
The main card is stacked with compelling matchups, including Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer at middleweight, a bantamweight showdown between Patchy Mix and Mario Bautista, and a welterweight scrap featuring Kevin Holland and Vicente Luque. With rising prospects and established contenders throughout the lineup, UFC 316 is poised to deliver fireworks from start to finish.
With a great fight card on tap, money can be made at the sportsbook this Saturday night. Home of Fight is here to help put money in your pockets and cash out at the window this Saturday night. Let’s take a look at the Home of Fight expert picks for UFC 316.
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley 2
- HayJive – Sean O’Malley
“I see this one being highly competitive, Merab is the minute winner but O’Malley can steal rounds with big moments or even end the fight at any moment. I’ll take the underdog in O’Malley.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Sean O’Malley
“Sean should be fully healthy and will score damage more often on the feet, and has been working nonstop on the wrestling defense. This fight will be closer and I expect Sean to look much better here.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Sean O’Malley
“People act like this was a “dominating” fight for Merab because of the emotes, though the first fight was simply a fight of control-time. A few damaging shots can sway rounds. Round 1,3 was considerably close, and R5 a clear O’Malley round. When you are extremely lacking finishing ability, you are bound to get out-damaged eventually, and 50 minutes with O’Malley isn’t ideal.”
- Corrie – Sean O’Malley
“If we thought Sean was dangerous before, imagine him now – Fully healthy and laser-focused. Merab gets hurt in every fight, and while rematches often look the same, at this higher level, they almost always pan out differently because these guys make the changes and evolve, and O’Malley doesn’t strike me as the kind of guy to give up his lifestyle just to lose… Hell, I don’t think losing is even an option for him.”
- The Fight Analyst – Merab Dvalishvili
“I am surprised I am on an island here with Merab. While I expect this fight to be closer with O’Malley being fully healthy, this is still Merab’s fight to lose, barring a knockout. O’Malley has power, which is always a game-changer, but if he doesn’t land the kill shot, “The Machine” will seemingly outwork the “Suga Show” to retain his bantamweight title.”
Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison
- HayJive – Kayla Harrison
“Harrison should establish early dominance with her grappling, if she can’t find the finish she does run the risk of slowing down. I expect Peña to be tough but I think Kayla is the superior fighter here.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Kayla Harrison
“The physicality is what will take Kayla far here. The ability to wrestle and control, but also the striking should help her back up Julianna to the cage. The strength advantage should be enough.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Kayla Harrison
“As much as Pena’s durability is a strong point, we have seen her ground game exposed, and Harrison will be prepared for the moment. I believe we do see a submission win by Harrison before the start of the 4th round.”
- Corrie – Kayla Harrison
“I’m picking Kayla Harrison to win, but I’m staying away from it betting-wise. Peña is gritty, relentless, and way more live than the odds suggest. That said, if Kayla fades late or gets stuck in scrambles, this could get dicey fast.”
- The Fight Analyst – Kayla Harrison
“As an MMA fan, I truly hope that Kayla Harrison makes the women’s bantamweight division great again! Harrison is essentially better than Julianna Pena in every aspect of MMA, but there are question marks about making 135 on the dot and fighting into the championship rounds. As long as Harrison doesn’t death gas going into the fourth and fifth rounds, she should dominate this fight, claim UFC gold, and set up the superfight between herself and Amanda Nunes.”
Pyfer vs Gastelum | HOF
Joe Pyfer vs. Kelvin Gastelum
- HayJive – Joe Pyfer
“I can’t take Kelvin in 2025, he’s going to be a lot smaller and I think Pyfer is a force especially in a 3 round fight.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Joe Pyfer
“Pyfer is the fresher fighter who has bigger ambitions at this stage. The power and hand speed will be a problem early, and I believe he could even rely on the wrestling should he need it.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Joe Pyfer
“While we haven’t seen Gastelum knocked out, we have seen him out-grappled and submitted. Despite the antics outside the cage, I still am confident in his ability to stay patient, hurt Gastelum and explore options on the canvas.”
- Corrie – Joe Pyfer
“Pyfer’s been checked at this level but Kelvin is not going to be defending punches like Jack did. That said, there’s such a weird energy around this after the Mexico CIty cancellation but regardless, I’m leaning Joe Pyfer… He’s got the size and power to overwhelm Kelvin.”
- The Fight Analyst – Joe Pyfer
“While this line is quite wide, Pyfer is the rightful favorite. He has size, youth, and power on his side that should sway things against Gastelum who seems to be on his last legs. Pyfer goes in there, dispatches Gastelum, and gets the signature win he’s been longing for on his UFC resume.”
Patchy Mix vs. Mario Bautista
- HayJive – Patchy Mix
“Patchy is an elite grappler with really solid wins outside the UFC. I think he can get to his grappling here against Bautista.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Mario Bautista
“Patchy was underwhelming in his last bellator fight, and needs to fight going forward to set up his takedowns. Mario’s pressure, pace, and volume should have Patchy on the back foot making it harder for Patchy to land the takedowns.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Patchy Mix
“We have seen Bautista tagged, hurt and even submitted. While the UFC fanbase may not fully trust Mix just yet, they will once they see how lethal he is on the mat. Currently at 135, there aren’t many raw submission artists, and I believe Mix is just that.”
- Corrie – Patchy Mix
“It kills me to go against the MMA Lab in 2025, but I’ve got to lean Mix. He’s insanely well-rounded, durable, and just has more ways to get this done. If we get the best version of Mario, it could be close early, but Patchy’s pressure, subs, and striking improvements make him the safer pick, even if the Bellator-to-UFC transition usually gives me pause.”
- The Fight Analyst – Patchy Mix
“While I have been calling for Patchy Mix to be in the UFC for some time now, this will not be an easy task for him in his UFC debut. Although Bautista is very tough and well-rounded, Mix’s ground game will overtake his shortcomings on the feet in this matchup. Things will be dicey early in this matchup, but once Mix can get this fight to the mat, it’s in his world where he finishes Bautista shortly thereafter.”
Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland
- HayJive – Kevin Holland
“It’s hard to trust Holland in any fight, but at 170lbs he has a lot of hardware that is tough for opponents. He should be able to outstrike Luque and maybe find a KO.”
- Nolan (TheParlay) – Kevin Holland
“Holland should be much faster, more powerful, and too athletic here. Luque doesn’t seem the same as he was, and if Kevin can just avoid the grappling he should win this fight.”
- JJ (TheOctagonKings) – Kevin Holland
“As much as we want Luque to win, the reality is the brain-bleeds have been a factor against opponents with true KO power that are dangerous, especially Holland who knows how to pick his shots from a distance.”
- Corrie – Kevin Holland
“I think Kevin Holland gets it done here, likely by KO – He looked sharp against Gunnar Nelson and 170 is, in fact, the perfect place for him, and Luque’s taken a ton of damage over the years, especially after the terrible health concerns, of course, but I fear I’m done fading Holland. (Watch for the D’arce from either side though…)”
- The Fight Analyst – Kevin Holland
“This will be Kevin Holland’s first fight at 170 lbs against an opponent under the age of 34 years old. Luckily for him, Luque is shopworn at this stage of his career and looks more aged than most Holland has fought at welterweight. Holland sometimes has lapses in fight IQ, but if this fight doesn’t hit the mat, Holland should land something big on the feet, putting Luque away to make it two in a row at 170 lbs.”
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