Home of Fight Expert Picks: UFC 328
Newark, New Jersey becomes the epicenter of the MMA world this Saturday when UFC 328 descends on the Prudential Center — and this card is loaded from top to bottom.
The main event is one of the most personal, venomous title fights we’ve seen in years. Unbeaten middleweight champion Khamzat Chimaev (15-0) makes his first title defense against bitter rival and former champion Sean Strickland (30-7). What started as a gym confrontation has boiled into a full-blown blood feud, with Strickland entering as a 4-to-1 underdog but carrying elite takedown defense and the kind of iron chin and forward pressure that could make this a dogfight. Chimaev is a force of nature, but Strickland might be the perfect stylistic problem to test him.
The co-main event is equally compelling. Flyweight champion Joshua Van (16-2) puts his title on the line against red-hot Japanese contender Tatsuro Taira (18-1), who could become the first Japanese-born UFC champion. Van won the belt in dramatic fashion last December but faces a major test against an 18-1 finisher.
Don’t sleep on the heavyweight clash between Alexander Volkov (39-11) and Waldo Cortes-Acosta (17-2), a fight with serious interim title implications in the future. With Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley and the nostalgic King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens bout rounding out the main card, UFC 328 is built to deliver from the opening bell.
With a great fight card on tap, money can be made at the sportsbook this Saturday night. Home of Fight is here to help put money in your pockets and cash out at the window this Saturday night. Let’s take a look at the Home of Fight expert picks for UFC 328.
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland
HayJive – Khamzat Chimaev
- “I’ll take Khamzat Chimaev here. He has some of the best wrestling in the sport and brings massive finishing upside early. As long as he stays composed and sticks to the game plan, this feels like his fight to lose.”
Nolan – Khamzat Chimaev
- “Khamzats wrestling is so polished and relentless that this could look like his fight vs. DDP. The Philly shell might leave the hips wide open for takedowns.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Khamzat Chimaev
- “TI think we see a similar fight to the DDP fight with more resistance from Strickland and a few more striking exchanges seeing Strickland stealing a round or two.”
The Fight Analyst – Khamzat Chimaev
- “There are just two fighters in the UFC you don’t fade, and that’s Islam Makhachev and Khamzat Chimaev. Chimaev is going to be the first to absolutely dominate Strickland and finish him on the mat to retain his UFC middleweight title.”
Austin Swaim – Sean Strickland
- “I don’t really make straight picks, which would — of course — be Khamzat Chimaev here. At current betting odds, I do think Chimaev’s inability to hold down Burns and Usman as welterweights does open the door for Strickland’s anti-grappling to allow him to have moments of success in this fight. No fighter has controlled Strickland for more than 150 seconds since his return to middleweight in 2020.”
Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira
HayJive – Tatsuro Taira
- “Taira should have a major grappling edge in this matchup. If he gets to his back control and body triangle positions, things could get dangerous quickly for Van. Van has paths late if the grappling isn’t working, but I trust Taira to eventually find success on the ground.”
Nolan – Tatsuro Taira
- “This is such a tough fight to call, but I’m going with the proven grappler to takedown the guy who doesn’t have high level wrestling experience. Close fight.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Tatsuro Taira
- “5 Rounds is enough time for Taira to showcase his grappling, which I do believe is next level and while Van is on an insane streak, I do think Taira is his kryptonite.”
The Fight Analyst – Joshua Van
- “This will be Van’s second straight camp against a world-class grappler, giving him ample time to get ready for the style that Taira brings to the table. However, this time he doesn’t need to worry as much about aggression, striking, and cardio against Taira as he did with Pantoja. If he can keep safe and not get finished early, he should be able to take over down the stretch and put a clinic on Taira to retain his title.”
Austin Swaim – Joshua Van
- “In some ways, the flyweight co-main mirrors the main event. Can Josh Van’s historically great anti-grappling neutralize Taira’s advances and allow him to rack up points at distance? I believe so, considering he stuffed a combined 23 of 29 takedown attempts against Rei Tsuruya and Cody Durden as quality wrestlers in the division.”
Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
HayJive – Alexander Volkov
- “Volkov just has too many weapons here. The kicks, range, experience, and overall striking arsenal should allow him to control the fight at distance. At 6’7”, he should be able to manage range well enough to outpoint Acosta over three rounds.
Nolan – Waldo Cortes-Acosta
- “Waldo has sharp boxing, good cardio for a heavyweight, and should be the one controlling the wrestling if that happens. I think Volkov’s tall man defense could get him hurt here.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Alexander Volkov
- “It’s time we be honest. Waldo has had a ton of luck in this streak, getting an older Derrick Lewis, a controversial KO win over Delija and a KO win over Gaziev, all wins that have aged poorly. Volkov is good everywhere, and can take this all three rounds.”
The Fight Analyst – Waldo Cortes-Acosta
- “Waldo has really grown on me and he just does what is needed to get his hand raised. While Volkov is an elite striker in his own right, Waldo has shown he can bang with the best of them. With little threat of the takedown, Waldo should be able to land his hands go and notch another big win on his resume.”
Austin Swaim – Waldo Cortes-Acosta
- “Momentum is a fascinating thing, and “Worldwide” Waldo has it. He’s really leaned into his power by sitting on early shots in recent fights, and Volkov’s last-second loss to Derrick Lewis stings in my memory if someone connects to his chin. The Pavlovich fight was a good look for Volkov ahead of this matchup, but he’s inched a little closer to 40 years old now than he was entering that bout.”
Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley
HayJive – Sean Brady
- “I like Brady in this matchup. Buckley’s movement-heavy style could open opportunities for Brady to time takedowns, especially when Buckley explodes forward. If Brady gets him against the cage and starts chaining takedowns together, he should be able to control the fight with his grappling.”
Nolan – Sean Brady
- “It’s hard to beat Rahiki because he ensures you take major damage. His opponent is on very short notice which won’t help him against Rahiki.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – Joaquin Buckley
- “Buckley blitz’s and forward style could leave him open to get taken down. Brady is a phenomenal grappler at the end of the day and the control time could look similar to Usman.”
The Fight Analyst – Sean Brady
- “No fault in Brady losing to Michael Morales, who is twice the size of Buckley and twice the wrestler. As long as Brady is fully healthy this go around he should be able to take Buckley to the ground and dominate him there.”
Austin Swaim – Sean Brady
- “Joaquin Buckley’s ascension at welterweight always felt a little fraudulent when the marquee wins are a turbo-washed trio of Colby Covington, Vicente Luque, and Stephen Thompson. The latter was winning, too. Brady established there are levels on the ground when he was the first to submit Leon Edwards, and I don’t like Buckley’s chances for survival if the Philly native can secure dominant positions in this close-to-home battle.”
King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens
HayJive – King Green
- “King Green’s output and experience at a high level should be the difference here. Stephens always has power, but he hasn’t been very active in MMA lately. Outside of a big punch landing, this feels like a fight Green should control.”
Nolan – King Green
- “Jeremy hasn’t won in a long time, his power isn’t as great as he’s gotten older, and Bobby seems to be fighting at a high level still.”
JJ (The Octagon King) – King Green
- “He’s got the momentum, despite the age, and has been fighting solidified opponents. Stephens hasn’t won a singular UFC fight since 2018.”
The Fight Analyst – King Green
- “Even at 38, Green has fight left in him; the same can’t be said about Stephens at 39. Stephens is on his way to his 20th UFC loss on Saturday.”
Austin Swaim – King Green
- “Jeremy Stephens hasn’t won a UFC fight since 2018. This pick could be that simple, but the converted featherweight just also doesn’t appear to carry the sting needed to stop a hyper-mobile, defensively sound King Green. Stephens has also picked up bonus attrition from BKFC. I wonder if Green’s infrequent (but effective) jiu-jitsu skills could make an appearance in this fight considering Lil’ Heathen’s 0-3 promotional record to submissions.”
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