UFC 315 Promotional Poster | ESPN
UFC 315: Southpaw Report
Hello and welcome to the ever-popular southpaw report, which can now be found here exclusively at Home of Fight!
Aside from the fact that most statistics you see on major broadcasts are drawn from a faulty well of information full of misinterpretation and human error, the statistical categories discussed generally lack proper sample sizes and contexts.
So, with that in mind, I try to provide unique, applicable and (hopefully) interesting stats in the form of my patent southpaw reports.
Here, I will do my best to provide you with everything from stats to written and visual analysis covering every fighter facing a dedicated southpaw on upcoming UFC cards.
UFC 315 offers a decent slate of listed southpaws, so let’s get started!
Belal vs JDM | HOF
Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena
Belal Muhammad, who faces the stance-switching Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 315, is officially 6-2-1 against dedicated, UFC-level southpaws.
- Wins: Chris Curtis, Chance Rencountre, Tim Means, Demian Maia, Takashi Sato, Leon Edwards
- Losses: Alan Jouban, Geoff Neal; No Contest: Leon Edwards
Although I don’t officially include stance-switchers into my tracked southpaw statistics, I did feel that this fight was worth covering from an analysis perspective due to the amount that Della Maddalena switches to lefty.
Luckily for Muhammad, his approach surprisingly doesn’t differ much when operating in open-stance affairs.
Belal Muhammad’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1920682097812848844
Dan Tom | X
Demonstrating his in-cage IQ, Muhammad is one of the few MMA fighters who will actually use his jab against southpaws. This, of course, allows the champion to set up and pull out offense to great effect.
However, I did notice that left-sided strikes, regardless of stance, seem to be the common thread in his knockdowns and losses.
Belal Muhammad’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1920682568283725947
Dan Tom | X
Couple this with the fact that Della Maddalena quietly does a lot of his cleanup hitting with his left hand, and there’s no deny that the challenger is live for the upset this Saturday.
My prediction: Despite carrying a clear edge in striking stanzas, I still can’t bring myself to pull the trigger on Della Maddalena due to his suspect decision-making in closed quarters and his propensity to compete on slim margins.
It feels like a dog or pass spot from a betting perspective, but I’ll officially pick Muhammad to come in with a solid gameplan en route to grinding out a win on the scorecards.
Shevchenko vs Fiorot | HOF
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot
Valentina Shevchenko, who faces Manon Fiorot at UFC 315, is officially 2-1 opposite fellow UFC-level southpaws.
- Wins: Liz Carmouche, Holly Holm
- Losses: Liz Carmouche
As I always say about southpaw vs. southpaw affairs, the dynamic of the matchup can put a serious monkey wrench in any perceived, on-paper advantages. This, of course, was on full display at the beginning of Shevchenko’s series with Alexa Grasso.
Valentina Shevchenko’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1920686117667401963
Dan Tom | X
Despite primarily being an orthodox boxer, Grasso was able to get the jump on Shevchenko by mainly fighting from southpaw. Not only did this help shut down the traditional kicking lanes that Shevchenko was used to, but it also opened up the extra potent left cross that can serve as a southpaw killer, of sorts.
Still, when you go back to look at that series with fresh eyes, you’ll see that Shevchenko actually won more minutes and exchanges with what was a superior and fully-fledged striking arsenal.
In fact, Shevchenko has traditionally struck well with fellow southpaws, demonstrating a much stronger lead hand presence in these matchups.
Valentina Shevchenko’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1920684576105484638
Dan Tom | X
Fiorot shows a solid lead-hand presence when facing other southpaws herself, but her shot selection and patterns can be predictable given that she’s a headhunter.
Manon Fiorot’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1920688407837073877
Dan Tom | X
I also noticed that Fiorot can be surprisingly kickable from both stances, which could provide some openings for Shevchenko this weekend.
My prediction: Between Fiorot’s rote striking style to her suspect stamina and decision-making, I have a hard time picking her against a more proven product like Shevchenko. I’ll take the champion to retain the title by controlling this fight with her jab and takedowns.
Saint-Denis vs Prepolec | HOF
Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Kyle Prepolec
Benoit Saint-Denis, who faces fellow southpaw Kyle Prepolec at UFC 315, is officially 0-1 against dedicated, UFC-level southpaws.
- Losses: Dustin Poirier
With Prepolec replacing Joel Alvarez on short notice, it’s safe to say that neither fighter was preparing to strike with a fellow southpaw – which makes an already volatile dynamic even more dangerous.
Saint Denis has seen the stance more recently, but the Frenchman didn’t fare well given his aggression and level of competition.
Benoit Saint-Denis’ southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1920895956385403111
Dan Tom | X
Prepolec, on the other hand, stands at 0-0 in this category but has seen spurts of the southpaw stance in his last professional loss to UFC veteran Shane Campbell. He also won his last fight against a regional talent who primarily operates out of southpaw.
Kyle Prepolec’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1920897706936906097
Dan Tom | X
Although Prepolec didn’t look nearly as zombified as Saint Denis did in his sample, the Canadian still had a propensity to put himself in line with some kicks and counters due to his approach.
My prediction: To be honest, seeing how (to varying degrees) vulnerable both of these guys looked against fellow southpaws makes me have way less faith in my original prediction of Saint Denis by second-round submission.
Prepolec may be stepping in on short notice, but the UFC veteran carries some decent experience and savvy and was already preparing to face an aggressive grappler this weekend.
This prediction won’t win me any popularity contests, but given these odds, I can’t help but take a flier on the more durable and smoother southpaw over the more raw power threat.
Whether he’s out pointing him to a decision or coming out on top of a car crash early on, the pick is Prepolec.
Marcel Dorff | X
Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Bruno Silva
Marc-Andre Barriault, who faces the stance-switching Bruno Silva at UFC 315, is officially 1-2 opposite UFC-level southpaws.
- Wins: Eryk Anders
- Losses: Krzysztof Jotko, Chris Curtis
Again, I don’t typically include stance switchers into these articles given the prevalence of stance switching in the modern day of MMA, but Silva is a fighter who mainly fights from southpaw despite listing himself orthodox.
Marc-Andre Barriault’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1920912136781389839
Dan Tom | X
Barriault has made some improvements since his fight with Jotko, showing more of a lead hand and countering presence. The Canadian also likes to counter balance his kicks and knees with crafty crosses that come in hand in these sort of open-stance affairs.
My Prediction: I’ve bet on Silva before, but it’s almost impossible to trust him given the state he’s shown in recent years. The pick is Barriault to win both the minutes and moments en route to a unanimous decision win.
This concludes the southpaw report for UFC 315. Be sure to check back here on UFC fight weeks this report and more.
Want to know more about each event? Visit homeoffight.com or any of our social media accounts for more articles, fighter interviews, and plenty of more coverage. Enjoy the fights, let us know how you’ll be watching!
