Ed Mulholland | Zuffa LLC
UFC 316: Southpaw Report
Hello and welcome to the ever-popular southpaw report, which can now be found here exclusively at Home of Fight!
Aside from the fact that most statistics you see on major broadcasts are drawn from a faulty well of information full of misinterpretation and human error, the statistical categories discussed generally lack proper sample sizes and contexts.
So, with that in mind, I try to provide unique, applicable and (hopefully) interesting stats in the form of my patent southpaw reports.
Here, I will do my best to provide you with everything from stats to written and visual analysis covering every fighter facing a dedicated southpaw on upcoming UFC cards.
UFC 316 offers a decent slate of listed southpaws, so let’s get started!
Juliana Peña vs. Kayla Harrison
Juliana Peña, who faces southpaw Kayla Harrison at UFC 316, is officially 2-1 against dedicated, UFC-level southpaws.
- Wins: Cat Zingano, Nicco Montano
- Losses: Valentina Shevchenko
Peña also has an exhibition win over Gina Mazany in the TUF house and a loss to Amanda Nunes, who went southpaw when the two rematched at UFC 277.
Juliana Peña’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1930917655772586428
Dan Tom | X
Although Peña seems slightly more comfortable in this stance pairing over time, the current champ still lacks head movement as she moves on linear lines, opening her up for counters.
My prediction: Even though the betting spread for this fight is insanely wide, I can’t help but side with the favorite in Harrison due to Peña’s propensity to open herself up to takedowns and the like.
Harrison may have her own struggles on the feet, but I don’t think that Peña possesses the tools to punish her for it.
The pick is Harrison by submission in Round 2.
Pyfer vs Gastelum | HOF
Joe Pyfer vs. Kelvin Gastelum
Joe Pyfer, who faces Kelvin Gastelum at UFC 316, is officially 1-0 opposite fellow UFC-level southpaws, beating Gerald Meerschaert.
Although it’s a small sample size, I did like what I saw from Pyfer in his lone UFC fight involving a southpaw.
Joe Pyfer’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1930919759731909045
Dan Tom | X
Not only did Pyfer show some natural distance management that should serve him well opposite Gastelum’s blitzes, but the Philly native also went to the body and used his lead hand effectively (though I wish he was a little more active with both).
My prediction: Despite Gastelum always seeming like a live dog at first glance, his inconsistencies make it too hard to back him at this point in his career. I also haven’t seen enough changes in Gastelum’s game or shot selection over the years, so I’m not sure I can count on him to get the jump on Pyfer.
Couple that with Pyfer’s underrated wrestling and ground game, and I suspect that “BodyBagz” can get a submission win in Round 2.
Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix
Mario Bautista, who faces fellow southpaw Patchy Mix at UFC 316, is officially 1-1 against dedicated, UFC-level southpaws
- Win: Guido Cannetti
- Loss: Trevin Jones
The samples are fairly limited for Bautista, but he did show brief glimpses of stance matching with Cannetti that could serve him well opposite Mix when you consider the success Magomed Magomedov had when launching left hands at the final Bellator champion in their rematch last year.
Mario Bautista’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1930923694739853798
And against Jones, Bautista primarily looked to counter from the outside or close to the clinch before ultimately getting caught and finished in Round 2.
Although Bautista looked slightly less comfortable striking with southpaws in the limited samples above, I know his camp – the MMA Lab – houses a ton of lefties for him to work with.
My prediction: Despite believing that Bautista shouldn’t be this big of an underdog in this spot, I’m also not sure how well his striking or overall game functions without the outlet of his wrestling. For that reason, I’ll be siding with the superior grappling and potential southpaw improvements of Mix – who hasn’t been seen in action for over a year.
A submission win for Mix wouldn’t shock me, but I believe that Bautista’s scrambling and defense can see him to the final bell.
The official pick is for Mix to edge out a competitive decision win.
Marcel Dorff | X
Brendson Ribeiro vs. Azamat Murzakanov
Brendson Ribeiro, who faces southpaw Azamat Murzakanov at UFC 316, is officially 2-1 opposite UFC-level southpaws
- Wins: Ciao Machado, Diyar Nurgozhay
- Loss: Marcio Alexandre Jr.
Fight footage was hard to scrape together for Ribeiro’s report due to UFC and ESPN’s lack of care for their library, but the Brazilian’s shot selection largely remains the same regardless of what stance his opponent is in as counter/crashing right hands appear to be his calling card.
Brendson Ribeiro’s southpaw report: https://x.com/DanTomMMA/status/1930924997243212187
Dan Tom | X
To Ribeiro’s credit, he does come from a camp – Evoluciao Thai – that has cultivated southpaw threats before, so I suppose we shouldn’t be surprised to see the Contender Series product throw somewhat comfortably in open-stance affairs.
My Prediction: Despite looking the part in the brief clips posted, Ribeiro has long had defense and durability issues due to his aggression and willingness to exchange that could cost him against a deceptively speedy athlete and striker like Murzakanov.
Add in the fact that Ribeiro is stepping in on short notice, and I can’t help but take one of light heavyweight’s quiet contenders to continue to roll here.
The pick is Murzakanov by knockout in Round 1.
This concludes the southpaw report for UFC 316. Be sure to check back here on UFC fight weeks this report and more.
Want to know more about each event? Visit homeoffight.com or any of our social media accounts for more articles, fighter interviews, and plenty of more coverage. Enjoy the fights, let us know how you’ll be watching!
