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As one era closes, this new era begins.
UFC has just two events left in the ESPN model with “pay-per-view” numbered cards. In 2026, they’ll transition to a more fan-friendly format on Paramount Plus.
Oddly enough, timing just happened to work out that Home of Fight’s online content will bleed just a pair of cards into that “old” era. Some of you know me as MattyBetss’ right-hand man from our weekly YouTube show. Some of you read me for years on numberFire and FanDuel Research. However the source of where you found me, I’m glad you’re here.
A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for a half decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model that tries to find the answer using data for fighters with at least 30 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.
This will be a weekly staple on Home of Fight where I break down the fights in a no-holds-barred preview with errything. I’ll post all my model’s outcomes where available. I’ll preview every fight. I’ll sprinkle in DFS where applicable. It is unchained, unfiltered Austin — for better or for worse.
Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’m going to be right; I just want to get it right, and you’ll get my best effort every week.
I invite you to join the fan club of Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed or would rather read on Friday at the office, I’ve got you.
From a betting perspective, let’s preview UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2, taking place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday night. The fights start at 6:00 p.m. EST.
UFC 323 Betting Picks and Props
Muhammad Naimov vs. Mairon Santos
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| M. Naimov | 45.10% | 13.70% | 11.06% | 2.64% | 31.40% |
| M. Santos | 54.90% | 28.37% | 9.61% | 18.76% | 26.54% |
This was a weird fight to model — as evidenced by striker Mairon Santos, who hasn’t tried a submission in UFC or secured one as a pro, being modeled with such a heavy chance for a sub.
That heavy influence comes from the fact Muhammad Naimov has a 33.3% loss via submission rate as a pro, and his only UFC loss to Felipe Lima came giving up a choke. Now, the 25-year-old Brazilian favorite is improving, so would I rule out it? Definitely not.
That’s especially the case when Naimov’s path to win here seems to be his wrestling. Be careful of those front chokes. Santos has a mediocre 50% takedown defense, which was largely damaged in what should have been a loss to Francis Marshall in March. After that split result, he picked up an uninspiring yet conclusive win over “Super” Sodiq Yusuff.
If you take out a decision win for Naimov over Nathaniel Wood in which his striking differential was -2, the Tajik fighter’s level of competition is horrible. Going to a decision with Bogdan Grad seems worse in light of last event’s results from Qatar, and chinning Jamie Mullarkey seems probable in hindsight. In fact, Lima — a 135er — flatly dominated “Hillman” on short notice.
This betting line makes sense given Santos’ future projections and plausible advantage when striking, but it’s probably not giving enough credit to a guy seemingly up to date on his vitamins that hasn’t been KO’d as a pro. If that’s the case, Naimov has mustered 1.69 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a plausible path to replicate Marshall’s gameplan.
I’ve been burned all year in betting spots like Naimov. Do I really want his inefficient offense, questionable cardio, and inconsistent performances against a guy who just turned back a tougher opponent? Not really.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I took a speculative longshot at Santos’ submission prop (+1600) out of respect to the model. Naimov’s point spread, moneyline, and decision prop reek of being “value losers” in a close fight where he’s ceding edges in terms of striking volume and/or damage.
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Antonio Trocoli
We’re too new to both of these guys for a model result — and Mansur Abdul-Malik‘s cartoonish numbers from his friendly matchmaking would probably produce a wonky one anyway.
The undefeated 28-year-old American from MMA Masters in Miami is a genetic freak, KOing all four of his UFC-affiliated foes. That includes a Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) fight with Wes Schultz, who just made his way onto the roster through this past season of the auditioning series. His official UFC record doesn’t show 4-0 as professional rule grifter Cody Brundage was awarded a “no contest” for the tiniest, most insignificantly headbutt in Abdul-Malik’s finishing sequence this past June.
Antonio Trocoli, presumably, is another showcase spot. He’s 0-2 in UFC with disappointing setbacks to both a striker (Shara Magomedov) and athletic sub threat (Tresean Gore) after an odd layoff following his DWCS win, which was overturned via drug test. Trocoli might be best known as the husband of the current women’s strawweight champion, Mackenzie Dern.
Abdul-Malik’s 82% takedown D has kept things on his terms thus far, and Trocoli (11% takedown accuracy) has proven totally incapable of getting fights to the ground on his own terms. The Brazilian’s 23% striking defense is also outlierishly terrible.
I’m not all-in on Abdul-Malik after sketchy moments against both Brundage and Nick Klein, but I have legitimately no idea what Trocoli’s path to victory is when Abdul-Malik had no issues on the ground with Schultz last year.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Because Abdul-Malik exceeded five minutes against Schultz, Klein, and Brundage, I think he’s undervalued to run through Trocoli. He’s only -125 to win in the first round.
Iwo Baraniewski vs. Ibo Aslan
A fresh DWCS alum isn’t going to be model-eligible, but I still love Iwo Baraniewski facing Ibo Aslan from a betting perspective here.
“Rudy” Baraniewski punched his underdog story emphatically with a 20-second knockout of Muhamad Aly (pronounced as you’d hope) on this summer’s Contender Series, but that’s also the frightening result that gives me nightmares. We didn’t learn anything about the Polish 205er, who entered the appearance with a dicey level of competition, other than the fact he hits hard.
Aslan does too, though. This is a clear buy-low spot for Aslan, who has dropped consecutive fights after a previous 3-0 start to his UFC-affiliated fights. Ion Cutelaba handed “The Last Ottoman” his first pro loss via submission, and that led to some reservation — to say the least — in an awful staring contest against Billy Elekana where there was no true winner.
Still, Aslan’s UFC sample is good. His +0.78 striking success rate (SSR; significant strikes landed minus absorbed per minute) is quality with an elite 59% striking defense. His cardio, output, and grappling defense have all been suspect at times with the promotion, but I can’t even definitively say he’ll be at a deficit to Baraniewski in any of those categories. Plus, he’ll always get bonus points for working with Eric Nicksick and Xtreme Couture at one of the world’s best MMA gyms.
Unless Baraniewski’s two pro wins via sub are hiding a skilled grappler, Aslan has a decent chance to rebound against the overinflated newcomer.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: This should be graded closer to a pick ’em. Aslan’s moneyline is a great value — especially when he’s proven to win at a variety of durations in his brief UFC career.
Edson Barboza vs. Jalin Turner
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| E. Barboza | 32.17% | 15.89% | 12.68% | 3.21% | 16.28% |
| J. Turner | 67.83% | 48.23% | 30.24% | 17.99% | 19.60% |
“Retirement” can be a hysterical word in MMA. Jalin Turner‘s was really a reset, and it’s a good thing he’s back when four losses in five fights all came to ranked fighters. “The Tarantula” still has plenty to give to this lightweight division.
At his peak, I thought Turner was a potential title contender. He’s still showing to be dangerous everywhere with a 1.49% knockdown rate (KD%) and 1.1 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Considering two of the four Ls were split decisions, Turner has really only lost in convincing fashion with poor performances in bottom position on the mat against Renato Moicano (who he dropped) and Ignacio Bahamondes.
Edson Barboza won’t grapple here in all likelihood. If he does, the 77″ reach of Turner has proven to snatch chokes from unorthodox angles, and “Junior” has made a living on the feet anyway. The problem is the 39-year-old’s best days are clearly behind him. He was fortunate to not get ruled as stopped in the first round of a thunderstorm from Sodiq Yusuff, or he’d be entering a loser in five of his last six.
Barboza’s return to 155 pounds was a fight that he could have won if Drakkar Klose’s shots weren’t landing with visible impact before Barboza’s volume gave him the edge in Round 3. However, that was a mid-30s opponent whereas Turner, formerly ranked, is in his athletic prime with huge power and plenty of reach.
You can never be entirely sure where a fighter’s head is at when they return out of nowhere, but on paper, Turner’s physical gifts should carry him when you remember what he did to older, less-athletic strikers like Brad Riddell and King Green.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I’ve got no problem taking Turner’s Round 1 or 2 prop (-135) despite having him just +108 to win inside the distance. Barboza’s “decisions” don’t accurately reflect the storm weathered. Turner’s submission prop is almost always undervalued relative to (T)KO, too.
Marvin Vettori vs. Brunno Ferreira
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| M. Vettori | 49.51% | 32.17% | 12.92% | 19.26% | 17.33% |
| B. Ferreira | 50.49% | 25.45% | 15.39% | 10.06% | 25.05% |
Good luck to oddsmakers and bettors alike on this one.
In multiple fashions, you’ve got the unstoppable force against the movable object. Brunno Ferreira has never seen the judges’ scorecards opposite Marvin Vettori‘s nine straight decisions. Vettori has never been finished as a pro opposite “The Hulk” winning inside the first 10 minutes for 100% of his UFC triumphs.
For that reason, the best approach to this fight might be fading conventional wisdom in the prop market. Vettori might be a decision machine, but when Abus Magomedov’s cardio issues submitted Ferreira in Round 3, that’s a giant red flag. On the other hand, if there’s a fighter who can take Brunno’s punishment for 15 minutes, it’s the granite chin of Vettori, which absorbed a middleweight record for significant strikes in a fight (241).
As this fight sits in pick ’em range, I can’t make a call on the outcome when 50-50 myself. In general, I do think Vettori is one of UFC’s most underrated ranked fighters when you look at close losses by decision fighting in the top 10 for a decade. For a guy of that caliber to all of a sudden lose to Ferreira, who was easily KO’d by Nursulton Ruziboev in addition to the Abus loss, seems like an unusual outcome.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: My model believes that if you like Vettori, you should take him to win via finish. I kind of agree. He’s fought competition on a totally different plane than Brunno’s, so if he’s mentally and physically right, a dominant win would feel appropriate in hindsight. I think most bettors believe a finish outcome would favor Ferreira.
Nazim Sadykhov vs. Fares Ziam
Austin’s Fight of the Night
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| N. Sadykhov | 48.25% | 33.15% | 14.66% | 18.49% | 15.10% |
| F. Ziam | 51.75% | 18.33% | 4.39% | 13.94% | 33.41% |
Yep. Austin’s Fight of the Night is back, and these lightweight prospects deserve the label.
UFC is halting of one of them when Nazim Sadykhov is 4-0-1 to start his UFC tenure. France’s Fares Ziam has won five in a row himself. While my model is closer to a pick ’em, this line has inched Ziam’s way all week.
“Smile Killer” Ziam really rated poorly in my model during his early career due to one-dimensional striking with low volume, but he’s really improved as a fighter who entered UFC as a 22-year-old will. He’s upped the volume while also adding a legitimate grappling threat — eight takedowns in his last two fights — that’s uncharacteristic from French MMA fighters.
If I had to guess, Ziam’s pelts on the wall are why he’s inching up. Claudio Puelles, Mike Davis, and Matt Frevola are accomplished UFC vets, but all are on rapid declines in terms of both results and peripheral stats. To this point, the enigmatic Terrance McKinney is likely Sadykhov’s best win, and he had to overcome early adversity against Nikolas Motta to win in his home country of Azerbaijan this summer.
As the line inflates, I keep coming back to Sadykhov’s cardio and durability, which have both prevented him from losing in UFC despite hairy moments thus far. Frankly, Ziam’s 0.29 KD% and non-existent submission danger really don’t produce hairy moments, so it’s possible the best memories of the bout belong to someone I’d liken to fighting like “The Tasmanian Devil”. He just never stops coming.
“Finish only” markets beat me to the punch. Sadykhov is -200 there when I’d line him roughly -180. That sort of encapsulates why Ziam’s price isn’t ideal.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: The danger and finishing upside here lie squarely with Sadykhov, who has proven too consistently potent for 15 whole minutes to take Ziam stabs (or those of his decision prop) at chalk. I played Sadykhov’s ITD and submission props, but in tiny fashion.
Maycee Barber vs. Karine Silva
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| M. Barber | 62.94% | 18.63% | 11.43% | 7.20% | 44.31% |
| K.Silva | 37.06% | 14.42% | 3.58% | 10.84% | 22.64% |
Karine Silva‘s August win over Dione Barbosa was one of the most embarassing tickets I’ve cashed this year. It was a robbery where Barbosa landed more significant strikes, takedowns, and generally controlled the fight.
Finally, though, that performance has corrected my model in the right direction as “Killer” has proven to be a schedule-inflated commodity with a mediocre record over the last 18 months. In addition to the Barbosa fight, she lost to Vivi Araujo as just one of Araujo’s two wins in her last six fights.
Silva’s 11% takedown defense is basically non-existent, and she’s reached a level of competition where she can’t play jiu-jitsu off her back. Her striking (-0.16 SSR) is forgettable with growing, concerning issues about endurance. If Maycee Barber is recovered from her health scare earlier this year, she should roll.
“The Future” got cold feet — some combination of mentally and physically — before a main event with Erin Blanchfield where her size, in my estimation, might have given the 5’4″ Blanchfield issues. Regardless, Barber’s withdrawal kept her win streak at six, and she’s shown the ability to strike (+1.80 SSR) and wrestle (1.44 takedowns per 15) for the duration of the fight.
It’s bizarre Barber got such a favorable matchup after doing the UFC so dirty. It’s possible those health issues were substantiated to Dana’s satisfaction. Other than a tricky, longshot submission, I genuinely don’t see a path to victory here for Silva short of Barber freezing and keeping this fight’s striking volume so low that Silva can rob another. However, Maycee has proven to push the issue in almost every fight.
I sort of see Silva’s “one trick pony” slide similar to how Mayra Bueno Silva is fading at bantamweight. Women’s MMA is progressing too quickly to remain so limited.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: If you missed early-week moneylines on Barber, her Round 3 or decision prop (-120) is a really playable number that encompasses both an exhaustion-related finish and this fight’s high probability to go all 15 minutes.
Terrance McKinney vs. Chris Duncan
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| T. McKinney | 54.48% | 54.48% | 19.25% | 35.23% | 0.00% |
| C. Duncan | 45.52% | 33.26% | 21.45% | 11.81% | 12.26% |
I deserve the flaming that would come from a potential Terrance McKinney win by decision for putting 0.00% up there.
Obviously, the true odds aren’t zero, but my model sees McKinney, who has never seen the cards, as also fading badly in extended fights. Even if he survives, which is projected 12.3% of the time, it’s tough to see him winning late minutes. That’s especially the case when Scotland’s Chris Duncan has done that three times — all against multi-time UFC winners.
However, yep, I’m favoring the +130 underdog here. “T-Wrecks” has been so dominant in so many spots that my model gives him the benefit of the doubt against the man who surrendered the only UFC submission win of Manuel Torres’ career while also being knocked out by Viacheslav Borshchev on DWCS.
Duncan’s cashed as an underdog in three straight fights, but they were all fights that were not free of drama. He was on the ropes against Bolaji Oki before a “Hail Mary” submission from bottom position. Jordan Vucenic was his cleanest win, but the Englishman went 0-2 in UFC. Mateusz Rebecki has now lost three of four, and even he had a +22 striking differential against “The Problem”.
In short, Duncan’s performances haven’t been particularly stable or impressive in terms of winning minutes. It seems McKinney’s betting line is the only one getting punished for that sort of tendency, though.
While Chris has shown the grit and durability to fight through and find the finish, McKinney has two inches of reach as the larger guy, and he’s collected three UFC subs to Torres’ one — and Manuel made it look easy.
The grappling edge that Duncan used to escape Oki and Vucenic might lie with his opponent here, and the Scottish fighter’s 50% takedown D could also loom large if Terrance Magomedov shows up.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: As I forecasted in the Home of Fight Discord, McKinney’s Tuesday moneyline (+150) did indeed trump his R1/R2 prop (+120) now. McKinney’s sub prop (+340) is still outstanding value given these two’s prior tendencies.
Grant Dawson vs. Manuel Torres
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| G. Dawson | 48.62% | 37.74% | 20.20% | 17.55% | 10.88% |
| M. Torres | 51.38% | 50.81% | 41.95% | 8.86% | 0.56% |
Everything Manuel Torres has shown in his 5-1 UFC start is going to be beloved by the model.
“El Loco” has landed nearly 8.00 significant strikes per minute with huge power (3.39 KD%) and, largely, shown the takedown defense (88%) to keep it where that will shine. Even his one quick loss to Ignacio Bahamondes, a top-10 guy, didn’t dent his peripherals. It’s honestly tough to pick against that formula, but Grant Dawson‘s positioning as a favorite shows how excellent he’s been in his own right.
Dawson has infamously smothered foes in UFC with 3.87 takedowns per 15 minutes — and even better control. His fights haven’t always been extremely entertaining, but he’s periodically busted out the violence with finishes over Rafa Garcia and Jared Gordon.
As a massive favorite, Dawson was quickly (T)KO’d by a jab from Bobby Green, so the chin issues opposite Torres’ mammoth power just simply can’t be ignored. However, there is a version of this fight where Dawson survives an early flurry with a takedown, saps the Mexican’s power with his grappling, and grinds him to dust either via late finish or dominant decision.
I just am in closer agreement with my model’s verdict of how often each of those paths are walked. Every fight starts on the feet, and Torres’ sneaky submission game (1.0 submission attempts per 15) inspires enough hope he won’t be entirely helpless off his back at an underdog price.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: An early Torres bonk is undervalued when the only way we’ve seen him lose in UFC — striking D at distance — isn’t a factor that’ll come into play opposite Dawson.
Jan Blachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| J. Blachowicz | 54.59% | 35.94% | 11.59% | 24.36% | 18.64% |
| B. Guskov | 45.41% | 29.54% | 19.75% | 9.79% | 15.88% |
This light heavyweight bout is one of the more interesting handicaps on the card. I’m pretty in line with oddsmakers other than one glaring exception.
I forgot that Jan Blachowicz actually submitted both Nikita Krylov and Devin Clark in UFC, but my model didn’t. I sooner remember him on the wrong end of a Glover Teixeira sub, which was his only loss via finish since the end of 2019. Even at 42 years old, Jan’s iron chin hasn’t really faded. Taking my model’s assertion for best 205er in the world, Carlos Ulberg, to a tight decision showed his performance hasn’t really dipped at all, either.
On the other hand, it’s tough to deny the momentum Bogdan Guskov is building. Guskov has mowed through Krylov, Billy Elekana, and Ryan Spann in three straight fights, and all of them have shown submission offense at some point yet haven’t been able to replicate Volkan Oezdemir’s club-and-sub triumph in Guskov’s UFC debut.
Training with Valter Walker and Shara Magomedov at GOR MMA provides two quality bodies at his size, and the 33-year-old from Uzbekistan hasn’t been dropped in 5 UFC starts. Blachowicz’s 0.63 KD% shows his “Polish Power” is probably overrated, too.
Similar to the first fight of the evening, I’m nearly in value range with Guskov on the favorable end of a nine-year age gap, and Blachowicz’s submission prop is probably overvalued due to Guskov’s relatively small sample and Jan’s early-career grappling work. At an advanced age, I don’t really trust him to have 15 minutes of grappling to stifle Guskov’s offense.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I wasn’t expecting this fight’s most playable number to be Guskov’s decision prop (+700), but most of the guys that he’s knocked out aren’t in the same zip code of Jan’s striking defense and durability.
Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| H. Cejudo | 41.95% | 7.04% | 6.35% | 0.69% | 34.91% |
| P. Talbott | 58.05% | 22.69% | 18.77% | 3.92% | 35.36% |
This is a classic example of how my 2025 betting results have gone off the rails. Obviously, Payton Talbott‘s moneyline has exploded past his actual chance to win, but the “value” on veterans like Henry Cejudo just hasn’t cashed. I’m not sure this one will, either.
Cejudo, the former two-division UFC champ, is entering his retirement fight, so there are definitely motivation questions. That alone invalidates me from betting his side; I’ve been burned enough by poor performances from fighters with a foot out the door.
Still, “Triple C” has elite 59% striking D that largely kept him safe from Song Yadong in February — other than Yadong’s repeated eye pokes. He wasn’t winning, but he also wasn’t really in danger. That should have been a no contest or DQ if Jason Herzog didn’t need the fight to hit the scorecards for his parlay.
At this point, Talbott isn’t better in any one domain of MMA than Yadong except potential. The 27-year-old has physical gifts, elite striking volume, and showed vast improvements with his grappling to turn back another stud prospect, Felipe Lima, in June. That helped regain momentum that Raoni Barcelos snatched with eight takedowns in January.
Cejudo can wrestle, so it’s a bit unnerving to lay hefty chalk on Talbott again. My model’s verdict on the over is a slight one, but anecdotally, it would be a stunner if Talbott couldn’t finish an inexperienced Lima yet somehow stopped the former champion.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Banning retiring fighters like Cejudo, I don’t love any angle here. My model shows a smidge of value on this fight to go the distance. I’ve got it -236. I did find a “unanimous decision” prop for Talbott at +140 that’s an interesting look because Henry will either succeed wrestling in this fight to win or get shut out entirely.
Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| B. Moreno | 47.81% | 10.80% | 4.18% | 6.62% | 37.01% |
| T. Taira | 52.19% | 17.76% | 6.29% | 11.46% | 34.43% |
Level of competition is an extremely important concept in this fight.
Brandon Moreno is a beloved former champ that will be seen through rose-colored glasses, but I’m not sure how much the 31-year-old has improved with wins over Amir Albazi, who has been totally MIA for years other than the stinker he put up against Moreno in Canada, and Steve Erceg, who just struggled mightily with Ode Osbourne. It’s been since a split decision loss on home soil to Brandon Royval that Moreno has fought in the top five.
Of course, Tatsuro Taira also lost to Royval via split during his only appearance in the top five. I understand backing Moreno’s pedigree, but that blatantly ignores the improving 25-year-old’s potential. Taira has dominated all foes but Royval is still five years away from his analytical prime, and his peripherals are outstanding. He’s been extremely accurate with strikes (60%) while averaging 3.21 takedowns and 1.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes.
Moreno hasn’t faced a power threat since being dropped by Alexandre Pantoja in the fight he lost his title, either. Taira’s 1.18 KD% is sneaky power when he’s massive for the division.
Like oddsmakers, I’ve got Taira a favorite here. His grappling upside might be the best in the division outside the champ, and Moreno has grown increasingly hittable at distance in his time with Fortis MMA, one of UFC’s most underperforming large gyms. There’s a lot of recent losses coming from the camp outside of Jacobe Smith and Sam Hughes.
As expected, this number closed to a pick ’em all week with momentum behind Moreno. A Fortis fade with a bright prospect at that price? Sign me up.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Taira’s -3.5 point spread (+165) is the angle I took here. I’m not sure he’s the first fighter to finish “The Assassin Baby”, but I’m betting on his win being pretty darn convincing when favoring him wherever the fight goes.
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| A. Pantoja | 55.70% | 46.96% | 28.04% | 18.92% | 8.74% |
| J. Van | 44.30% | 8.16% | 7.28% | 0.89% | 36.13% |
I’m not super comfortable with my model’s results here, but there are takeaways that can help us bet Alexandre Pantoja‘s latest title defense from a smarter, contrarian lens.
Pantoja seemed to be on borrowed time having lost the distance striking battle to both Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval — both of whom have sub-65% takedown defense. But, he’s been totally efficient and fine to secure top position against Steve Erceg, Kai Asakura, and Kai Kara-France in three defenses following those bouts. Kara-France’s 83% takedown D was supposed to be a problem, but the Kiwi’s performance was particularly embarassing in terms of basic defensive mistakes.
Joshua Van regularly hasn’t made them as the fighter I’d nominate as this division’s best anti-grappler. He used his 81% takedown D to dismantle Cody Durden and Bruno Silva, and a barnburner boxing match in a phone booth with Royval (that involved no grappling) left Van’s SSR (+2.50) in an unbelievable position entering his first title shot at 24 years old.
That’s what my model sees, but I will admit that it liked Kara-France, too. Pantoja’s poor head defense (49%) is not good if he’s left at distance for prolonged periods, but the Brazilian grinder has found his way to the mat — and back — of his challengers thus far. Submission defense was one of Van’s biggest questions entering UFC as a prospect, and it hasn’t bothered him yet. In fact, his one loss was a stunning third-round knockout by Charles Johnson in a fight where Van had seemingly turned the tide in Round 2.
Those wonky results are why the props are a little strange here. Van’s chin was his only failing at this level. At the same time, Pantoja hasn’t been finished in 17 UFC fights or 35 fights as a pro, and Van’s 0.46 KD% isn’t super high as a starting point.
As a result, I think the numbers here might be wrong, but the general sentiment of which bets for both fighters are the superior angles is correct.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: My model might not be on target with exact percentages, but Pantoja’s knockout (+750) prop is likely undervalued versus submission (+165) when public consensus is he’ll find the back and show levels. If he doesn’t, Van’s striking volume will be hard to beat in a decision, and that prop is +440. Given Pantoja is a stock I want to short, the latter is the angle I’m playing myself.
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| M. Dvalishvili | 64.40% | 6.08% | 2.47% | 3.61% | 58.32% |
| P. Yan | 35.60% | 13.96% | 5.94% | 8.02% | 21.64% |
Sean O’Malley, the first guy that got a second crack at “The Machine”, ended up melting faster. How will Petr Yan fare in his rematch?
Yan is a “film bro” cult hero as the Russian boxer does everything within the lines of what you want you’d consider technically excellent. Since losing to Merab Dvalishvili in 2023, he’s turned back three straight ranked foes with inarguable, dominant decisions, and his +0.98 SSR is excellent considering he’s fought at a championship level for north of a half decade.
On paper, Yan’s 85% takedown D should also be a problem for Merab, and it was. He stuffed 38 of 49 takedowns faced against Dvalishvili in 2023, but it didn’t matter because unbeatable nature of “The Machine” was born. Just simply by never stopping the attempts, Yan had no openings to score with his own offense and compete to win the fight.
Really, the only thing that changes here is if Merab, competing for the fourth time this year at 34 years old, feels any effects of the busy schedule or advanced age. He has to slow down, or Yan will likely suffer the same fate Cory Sandhagen did in October. Sandhagen had quality moments of resistance, but you looked up at the end of 25 minutes, and he pretty clearly lost the fight.
The secret is out on Dvalishvili’s unstoppable reign of terror. It’s insane to think he was an underdog against Sean O’Malley just 14 months ago, but now, the pricing in betting markets has swung the other way where closer efforts than you’d like against Jose Aldo, Umar Nurmagomedov, and Henry Cejudo loom large considering the chalk Merab sits at this weekend — especially when Yan would be most fans’ vote for a top-three guy in the division.
Betting this outcome responsibly would be a small stab at Yan to make enough adjustments to win rounds in the margins and escape with a decision. Laying -210 on Merab’s decision prop when he’s shown increased ability to finish fights recently is insanely dicey.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: This is the lightest I’ve bet a main event in years. I played Yan’s +9.5 points prop at -125, ostensibly requiring at least five total rounds won across the three judges’ scorecards with no 10-8s. That seems doable when the price here is wrong, and Merab might slow down a little from his age and/or a busy schedule.
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