Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Back-to-back numbered cards kick off 2026 as UFC 325 is headlined by the rematch that no one asked for, but some of Australia’s brightest prospects might steal the show on the undercard.
If you’re new here, this is my betting primer. I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for a half decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model that tries to find the answer using data for fighters with at least 30 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.
Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’m going to be right; I just want to get it right, and you’ll get my best effort every week.
I invite you to join the fan club of Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed or would rather read on Friday at the office, I’ve got you.
From a betting perspective, let’s preview UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2, taking place at the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia on Saturday night. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.
UFC 325 Betting Picks and Props
Sulangrangbo vs. Lawrence Lui
Road to UFC Finale – Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Sulangrangbo | Ineligible – UFC Debut |
| Lui | Ineligible – UFC Debut |
I came away from my amateur tape study impressed with Lawrence Lui.
As one of many pending City Kickboxing products on the card, Lui is incredibly polished at 29 for a “prospect”. On the feet, you see an educated lead hand and quality feints dating back to even his pre-Road to UFC (RTU) stint. He also showcased four takedowns to grind out his first RTU matchup in a fight he was dropped twice.
That chin is probably the chief concern in this matchup with 20-year-old Sulangrangbo from China. Training with Rongzhu and Yizha, Sulangrangbo hails from one of the country’s most notable MMA gyms, and it resulted in a first-round knockout followed by a clean decision where he dropped Sim Kai Xiong in the second round of the tournament.
I think it’s notable that those two teammates of Sulangrangbo took several UFC appearances to show their best stuff, and there is an athletic frame disadvantage that seems obvious as he’s barely an adult.
While possible that Sulangrangbo detonates the shaky chin that Lui showed in RTU Season 4’s first round, the Kiwi has never lost via professional (T)KO. If that holds through this appearance, he’s more technical on the feet, and his strength should be an advantage in the clinch.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: RTU finales at 135 pounds or lower have typically been “over” machines. I like Lui on the cards at a friendly +700 sprinkle.
Keiichiro Nakamura vs. Sebastian Szalay
Road to UFC Finale – Featherweight (145 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Nakamura | Ineligible – UFC Debut |
| Szalay | Ineligible – UFC Debut |
One of the sport’s hottest gyms might get a new entrant with a Sebastian Szalay win on Saturday.
A teammate of Quillan Salkilld and Cody Haddon at Luistro Combat, Szalay has the highest striking success rate (+2.98 SSR) of any of the show participants on these early prelims. “Seb” also posted a sparking striking (71%) and takedown (84%) defense on RTU — the latter of which being especially noteworthy as most looked to take him down.
By including Australia and New Zealand this season, it’s quite easy to say the tournament’s best prospect will come from it, and Szalay might have the claim to that. It’s unfortunate for Keiichiro Nakamura (+1.89 SSR) when he also fought well.
Of no relation to the bantamweight prospect, Nakamura landed a sweet step-in knee to punch his ticket here, but the unconventional striker’s +1.83 SSR speaks for itself. If anything, I’d be more worried for Nakamura that Szalay might have a grappling wrinkle for him when the Japanese fighter largely avoided one in the tournament, and he’s 0-1 as a pro via submission.
Nakamura is the longer, lengthier fighter, but Szalay’s tight hooks and power advantage seem primed to continue making statements. I’ve also got a hypothesis that the Japanese fighter can’t grapple at all. Coming from such an accomplished gym, I know the favorite has that second pitch.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Though likely setting myself up for an ice cold take, I think Szalay might be the most technical, interesting RTU prospect ever. I played him earlier this week at -120, and this fight’s prop to go the distance (+120) seems long for two responsible fighters. I’m just scared to play the total if Nakamura is a grappling liability.
Sangwook Kim vs. Dom Mar Fan
Road to UFC Finale – Lightweight (155 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Kim | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
| Fan | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
Here’s your nickname matchup of the year contender as “Street Buddha” battles “Frog Man”.
The former is Dom Mar Fan, who has home field advantage from Queensland. Fan used five total takedowns in two dominant, no-doubt decisions to punch his way here. He trains at Team Compton with Tom Nolan from this same division, so that’s one 155-pound body that can help prep fights.
Fan faced minimal resistance to score north of 8:00 in control time in both bouts, but there are red flags in both a 34% striking D and 20% takedown D as he advances in competition, starting with Sangwook Kim.
Kim trains at HAVAS Seoul with former UFC welterweight Dong Hyun Kim and current rising 170-pound contender Seokhyeon Ko. That checks out with a quality 71% takedown D through four total RTU appearances. He’s 3-1 with the only loss — and his only pro loss since September 2022 — coming via decision to Rongzhu.
This sport is still so prehistoric that I’m not sure data like Kim’s +1.70 SSR and excellent defense is even factored into the betting line.
Without a true ability for me to evaluate competition outside of those who have fought in UFC, I sort of assume all of it to be equal. With that the case, Kim’s data is significantly better in all areas, and I think he trains at the better gym.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: It’ll be hilarious if “wikicapping” gets it done here. Fan’s 20% takedown D should allow openings for the experienced Kim to get his wrestling going, and I have to sprinkle Frog Man’s submission prop (+600) when that’s the only way Fan has lost as a pro.
Kaan Ofli vs. Yizha
Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Ofli | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
| Yizha | Eligible |
Both of these former tournament participants greatly benefited from their last assignment.
Yizha was able to be yet another to claim Westin Wilson as a knockout victim in 37 seconds, and Kaan Ofli took advantage of Ricardo Ramos’ awful tendency to stick his neck in armpits.
From The Ultimate Fighter (TUF), Ofli has been thrown into the deep end with bouts against Ramos, Muhammad Naimov, and Mairon Santos. A combined 17-10 UFC record for that trio says as much. With that the case, a +0.00 SSR isn’t bad, and his striking defense (60%) is solid. He’s yet to stop either takedown attempt faced, though.
Takedowns might be the order of the day for Yizha (3.51 landed per 15 minutes). I’m less impressed by his +0.16 SSR when it factors in his RTU stats; TUF stats do not populate as exhibition fights. In actual UFC bouts, Yizha has a total striking differential of -23 despite the shutout of Wilson.
At the end of the day, though, Yizha has still exceeded my expectations as a durable grinder. If he can avoid a first pro submission loss, it’s hard to think he’s not able to collect takedowns and dominate this fight on the ground.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I waffled a bit on this fight given Ofli’s newfound submission offense, but Yizha hasn’t been subbed as a pro and attempts 11.70 takedowns per 15 minutes. I’ll play the percentages when Ofli hasn’t stuffed a shot yet.
Jonathan Micallef vs. Oban Elliott
Welterweight (170 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Micallef | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
| Elliott | Eligible |
When a prospect scores a first-round stoppage on DWCS, they’re usually given a bit of a push. Instead, Jonathan Micallef is two-for-two on brutal matchups.
Micallef closed roughly a +180 underdog to Kevin Jousset (2-2 UFC) but dropped the Frenchman while posting a +18 striking differential to win convincingly. The sample couldn’t be much cleaner when he submitted Mohamad Ado on DWCS in the fight prior.
Still, Oban Elliott is the draw in this spot for him. Elliott’s post-fight antics earned him three consecutive numbered cards to open his career, and each performance from “The Welsh Gangster” was better than the last until Seokhyeon Ko snatched all of his momentum with a rude, six-takedown smothering.
Elliott’s +1.29 SSR wasn’t badly harmed in a lay-and-pray loss, and that shows what he can do against now three straight multi-time UFC winners. He’s faced a stiffer set of tests than Micallef (+0.77 SSR) and outperformed him.
Considering Jousset was just knocked out in the first round in PFL, I don’t have any faith that was a great win for Micallef at all. I prefer Elliott’s UFC resume and general durability at an underdog price.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: While I’d generally put the arrow up on both guys, it’s hard to not feel this is a buy-low spot for Elliott in some capacity. I like a split decision prop in the fight (+350) and for Elliott (+700), too.
Jacob Malkoun vs. Torrez Finney
Middleweight (185 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Malkoun | 49.27% | 7.94% | 5.39% | 2.55% | 41.33% |
| Finney | 50.73% | 20.04% | 13.05% | 6.99% | 30.69% |
I debated not modeling Torrez Finney here because a lot of his octagon time happened in, laughably, in three DWCS appearances — a record that’ll likely never be broken.
Finney’s power wrestling is Dana White’s least favorite style, so he kept denying the 5’8″ bodybuilder’s results until they became undeniable. “The Punisher” just did himself no favors by stinking up the show against Robert Valentin (0-3 UFC) is his debut to land double the takedowns (8) that he did significant strikes (4).
At 9.31 takedowns per 15 minutes, Finney’s cardio and strength are pretty undeniable considering how he chooses to fight. Jacob Malkoun (6.63 takedowns per 15) is a fascinating draw when the Aussie largely makes his living the same way.
Malkoun’s last appearance against a chinny Andre Petroski was the first (T)KO by a hip in UFC history, marking a second straight bizarre appearance after Cody Brundage acted his way to a win via disqualification over “Mamba” in 2023.
Wrestling is a leverage game, and Finney has it. He’ll be harder to take down than vice versa.
A lot of times, though, these fights turn into unexpected standup affairs. The shorter fighter also has a two-inch edge in reach and at least some history of mammoth power on the feet should he connect. Malkoun’s chin was detonated by Phil Hawes in his 2020 debut — a result that has aged like milk.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I’m toeing the model’s line and playing the early Finney (T)KO. Malkoun’s UFC debut against a similar, powerful wrestler was over from a big left hand, and I just don’t believe he’s since faced a bomber with quality wrestling defense.
Cam Rowston vs. Cody Brundage
Middleweight (185 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Rowston | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
| Brundage | Eligible |
Sticking at middleweight, we get a former Finney foe (Cam Rowston) opposite a former Malkoun foe (Cody Brundage).
Brundage has to be our starting point with a polarizing 5-6 UFC career where it feels like he’s spent more time analyzing the rulebook than improving his cardio. An in-fight referee ruling has decided three of his last seven outings.
At his core, the underdog is probably a power grappler (2.05 takedowns per 15) that can also land bombs on the feet, but all that activity has left him gasping for air during inexplicable losses to the likes of Eric McConico and Sedriques Dumas. All five of his UFC wins have come in Round 1.
Rowston, therefore, has a pretty clear target for survival despite a first-round chinning of Andre Petroski in his debut. The Aussie was even a ‘dog on DWCS against Brandon Holmes after Finney dominated him with 10 takedowns in his first appearance on the show, but he was still able to stay safe and see a decision against Torrez.
Size is a huge edge for the 6’3″ favorite in just about every fight, but he’ll also have the cardio advantage here. This fight will be solely decided by his takedown defense. It doesn’t even need to be spotless before Brundage exhausts himself, and I’ll take his boxing skills and six-inch reach edge should this devolve to an ugly brawl.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I like Rowston’s R2/R3 prop (+175) and submission sprinkles in them. Brundage is a dangerous first five, and I don’t rate the Aussie’s power highly. But, the rulebook analyst always fades, and Rowston’s pro career is littered with late finishes and opportunistic neck snatches.
Junior Tafa vs. Billy Elekana
Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Tafa | Eligible |
| Elekana | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
Sean Sharaf ruined my favorite betting trend in UFC.
Sharaf (0-2 UFC) is the only fighter to lose to either Tafa — in this case Junior Tafa — outside of the first two minutes. It was historically a 120-second sweat to beat the Brisbane-based brothers with heavy hands and not much else. Junior has yet to defend any of the 11 takedown attempts he’s faced, and he seems down on power compared to even his brother with just one early (T)KO in six starts.
Billy Elekana has shown enough to believe he’ll find a way to beat him. Elekana had Bogdan Guskov’s back in a short-notice UFC debut, which ended in a second-round loss. Since, he’s dispatched Ibo Aslan and Kevin Christian’s combined 3-2 UFC record against all others.
“Son of Susie” has shown legitimate grappling chops in two of the matchups, and he hasn’t been dropped against three large, powerful foes. I’m not “all in” that he’ll survive this chin check, but there’s no doubting who the more skilled fighter is.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: My co-host loves Elekana’s (T)KO prop, and it is interesting when he hasn’t found one in UFC yet. However, just look at the results. If you survive 120 seconds against a Tafa, it’s usually a rout. Friday’s moneyline odds of -250 might actually still be a gift.
Quillan Salkilld vs. Jamie Mullarkey
Lightweight (155 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Salkilld | 77.18% | 49.72% | 41.29% | 8.43% | 27.46% |
| Mullarkey | 22.82% | 9.22% | 4.28% | 4.94% | 13.60% |
My model has been too responsible since the start of 2025, and this is a great example.
A vast majority of the time here, this fight is Quillan Salkilld‘s in a violent fashion. It’ll just be priced inappropriately as markets have swung out of control with hype trains that keep crashing down. Is there any chance this one leaves bettors disgruntled?
Salkilld’s 19-second knockout of Anshul Jubli put him on the map, and his headkick of accomplished vet Nasrat Haqparast has ushered him closer to stardom. Jamie Mullarkey is a step down from Haqparast in just about every manner.
The Aussie underdog is 6-6 in UFC, and he’s been chinned in four of the six setbacks. Mullarkey’s striking defense (54%) is not the issue; it’s an inability to take damage on the chin without terrible reactions. He’s been dropped six times in his last seven fights.
Two of Quillan’s four UFC-affiliated appearances (and wins) were decisions, and he’s gone to the wrestling (7.77 takedowns per 15 minutes) when unable to find the early shot. Those are facts the general public is ignoring as Salkilld’s knockout prop sits at -130.
At current odds, the appropriate manner to bet this fight is a sprinkle that Mullarkey survives as he has still done in four of his last seven fights.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I actually didn’t even think it would be this easy. At current odds, there’s not even a FOMO effect with Salkilld’s early (T)KO stuff. His decision prop (+700) is a gigantic number for a guy who went into wrestling mode quickly against Yanal Ashmouz.
Tai Tuivasa vs. Tallison Teixeira
Heavyweight (265 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Tuivasa | Eligible |
| Teixeira | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
I wish I could say Tai Tuivasa‘s five-fight losing skid was the largest on the main card of a numbered event in UFC history. However, Tony Ferguson (6) at UFC 296 has him beat.
“Bam Bam” has lost all five bouts inside the rankings, so there is a reason he’s still on the roster. The slugger (-1.41 SSR) has never made his name on efficiency as much as a 1.83% knockdown rate (KD%) and what is still one of the biggest right hands in the sport.
If he had gotten a “pick me up” matchup outside the top 15, he probably would have snapped the skid. Tallison Teixeira might end up being one.
Teixeira was that for Derrick Lewis, who knocked out the Brazilian in 35 seconds just one fight after Tallison did the exact same to Justin Tafa. He also won on DWCS inside of two minutes. Therefore, we haven’t seen much of the toolsy, lanky heavyweight.
As noted on Matty and I’s show, this fight feels eerily similar to Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Derrick Lewis. Sure, you can play the early bonk from Tuivasa. There’s also just a decent chance that Big Tex can use his footwork to stay safe long enough to turn this into an embarassing rout with speed, cardio, and diversity of his strikes.
Ciryl Gane tore up Tuivasa’s body, and that path seems to be there for Teixeira’s kicks. Ultimately, I love betting spots like this where the favorite betrayed bettors but then sits as a mammoth favorite no one believes in once again. I think there’s a reason.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Tuivasa just went all 15 minutes, but I do think length could be on the agenda again with Tai badly needing a win and Teixeira coming off his first career (T)KO. If this fight is decided in the first five minutes, I actually think it’s Tuivasa’s, enabling small sprinkles at Teixeira & Fight Starts R2 (+175).
Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy
Austin’s Fight of the Night – Lightweight (155 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Fiziev | 62.12% | 35.82% | 18.68% | 17.14% | 26.30% |
| Ruffy | 37.88% | 21.50% | 21.50% | 0.00% | 16.38% |
This is a pivotal fight for the mystique of the Fighting Nerds, who picked up a tight win with Jean Silva this past week.
Mauricio Ruffy never got out of neutral on the wrong side of a grappling landslide against Benoit Saint Denis in France, which he lost by second-round submission. Luckily for him, this fight with Rafael Fiziev should be a strikers’ delight. These two have just 0.89 takedowns per 15 minutes between them.
With that the case, Ruffy’s -0.32 SSR might be the greater concern. That was punished by James Llontop (0-3 UFC) in his lone extended UFC appearance, which was sandwiched between two of the best highlight knockouts you’ll ever see.
I’ve long thought Fiziev (+0.00 SSR) might be overrated because of his exciting Muay Thai base, but his pair of recent losses to Justin Gaethje certainly aged well last Saturday, and he’s coming off arguably his best career effort against Ignacio Bahamondes as he neutralized the long striker for a +12 striking differential and added four takedowns.
My model’s “Fiziev by sub” verdict here is likely a bit misguided by Ruffy’s lone pro loss (and UFC loss) since November 2019 coming via submission, but I think we can trust its verdict that Fiziev probably has any grappling edge here while remaining a dangerous, more experienced fighter at distance.
To me, the market is grading Ruffy’s gym a bit too highly when he’s shown the most lapses of its core members.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I was burned so often in 2025 in spots like Ruffy — a slightly inflating line in a “buy-low” spot on a popular prospect. The problem is Ruffy’s head kick of King Green is his only successful moment in his last six completed rounds. I trust my model’s verdict implicitly when it has been so low on Fiziev historically.
Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis
Lightweight (155 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Hooker | 33.55% | 19.94% | 15.61% | 4.34% | 13.61% |
| Saint Denis | 66.45% | 51.94% | 22.71% | 29.23% | 14.51% |
Dan Hooker is a man of his word. Anytime, anyone, anywhere.
After losing to Arman Tsarukyan in Qatar, Hooker lobbied for Renato Moicano well down the rankings because “we both suck“. Instead, he’ll face Benoit Saint Denis — one of the division’s most physical, violent contenders.
That doesn’t mean “Hangman” is totally out to lunch here. Just 17 months ago, Hooker turned away Mateusz Gamrot’s wrestling-heavy approach to win a split decision in Perth. He’s still won three of four despite the championship-level setback to Arman.
As is the case with many 35 year olds in UFC, Hooker’s up-and-down career has taken a toll on his peripherals with a mediocre +0.16 SSR on paper. However, his 77% takedown D might be the one key stat against Saint Denis.
“The God of War” was the latest to detonate Benny Dariush’s chin after his aforementioned mauling of Ruffy. That’s helped remove some memories of wrestling himself into deep trouble against Moicano and Dustin Poirier, losing both fights by second-round (T)KO.
Saint Denis is unapologetically aggressive, but he still leaves his head on the center at distance. His 42% striking D has been smashed several times even dating back to his debut against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.
If Hooker is able to avoid catastrophic positions on the mat, I don’t think it’s crazy to think he turns back another grappler in Sydney. His durability is at its best in extended brawls.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Tsarukyan’s championship pedigree was an immediate mismatch, but Saint Denis’ reckless head defense and tendency to leave his neck in bad spots are both a vintage get-right opportunity for Dan Hooker’s strengths, and I think “Hangman” still has gas in the tank following his effort against Gamrot.
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes
Five-Round Championship – Featherweight (145 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Volkanovski | 62.97% | 19.70% | 16.18% | 3.53% | 43.27% |
| Lopes | 37.03% | 30.13% | 19.36% | 10.78% | 6.90% |
Of the Paramount+ era announcements, few made as little sense as this one. Alexander Volkanovski has never faced Movsar Evloev, Lerone Murphy, or Aljamain Sterling, but the promotion will once again give Diego Lopes an opportunity to find the button.
On an overall basis, Volkanovski styled on Lopes last April and posted a +95 striking differential. The one round he lost was Round 2, where Lopes clipped him late for a knockdown.
That same dynamic probably hasn’t changed much 10 months later. “The Great” has a +2.82 SSR at the very pinnacle of competition that this weight range has to offer, and Lopes (-0.62 SSR) is a sloppy scrapper who tries to utilize his absurd physical tools to cause chaos.
Volk, though, is 37 with a chin that was found by both Islam Makhachev and Ilia Topuria. That’s UFC’s hope with rematching these two. Lopes is a popular, all-action fighter that feels designed in a lab by the promotion for entertainment.
That’s how he leapt the line — again — over divisional grinders. However, this fight is still yet another war between per-minute efficiency and high-impact moments, and I just don’t think age will be enough to narrow the gap as the more cerebral champion has even more information at his disposal.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Though this fight will likely be even more uncomfortable than the first, there was no doubt who the better fighter was just 10 months ago. Common market fallacies that MMA bettors fall into like entertainment value and overemphasis on age are — astoundingly — shrinking Volk back to a playable number, and it’s overwhelmingly likely he’s unable to finish a vitamin-rich Lopes.
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