UFC 326 Betting Primer: Fight Predictions, Props, and Model Results for Holloway vs. Oliveira 2

Two of lightweight’s greatest fighters of all time will clash in the latest battle for the “BMF” title at UFC 326. While Max Holloway, Charles Oliveira, and other veterans litter the main card, top prospects and debutants might produce the best highlights on the prelims.

If you’re new here, this is my betting primer. I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for a half decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model that tries to find the answer using data for fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’m going to be right; I just want to get it right, and you’ll get my best effort every week.

I invite you to join the fan club of Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed it or would rather read on Friday at the office, I’ve got you.

From a betting perspective, let’s preview UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2, taking place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.

UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 Betting Picks and Props

 

Luke Fernandez vs. Rodolfo Bellato

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Fernandez	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Bellato	Eligible

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This is no layup for Luke Fernandez off Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS). It’s an appropriate test when the show didn’t provide him one.

Fernandez steamrolled and dropped his opponent to land all 8 significant strikes offered and defend the lone attempt that was fired his way. It’s hard to take a lot from a 15-second fight against a sub-UFC-level guy. The former CFFC Light Heavyweight champ’s resume is actually much easier to sell with Fury Pro Grappling wins over UFC veterans like Phil Hawes and Eryk Anders, showcasing a rare ability in the clinch for a 205er.

Rodolfo Bellato is actually a sturdy test for that sort of archetype because of his 94% takedown D. He stuffed all three tries from Jimmy Crute. That part of the Brazilian’s game has held up at the UFC level, but “Trator” has been a massive disappointment to post a -0.73 striking success rate (SSR) as a brawler. He’s been hurt in nearly every bout, and he doesn’t have a knockdown since 2022 — which seems impossible for his size.

Losing to Crute and Paul Craig at distance isn’t a good sign that, even if Bellato thwarts Fernandez’s wrestling efforts, he’ll be able to dispatch the prospect. I initially wasn’t leaping to parlay the American favorite, but there’s minimal reason to fade his statistically perfect DWCS bid with such an uninspiring underdog. Lest we forget Bellato is a guy that was on the ropes against Ihor Potieria.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: As the week progressed, I became more and more confident in Luke Fernandez’s hands despite the obvious issues with grappling into Bellato. I think he’s able to find the button in the first 10 minutes, so I played those two rounds for a finish at +110.

Rafael Tobias vs. Diyar Nurgozhay

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Tobias	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Nurgozhay	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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If someone asks how I’ve turned around betting results in the last two weeks, I think a huge part of it is that I stopped betting “value” underdogs with no promise just because the favorite isn’t great. How can I back Diyar Nurgozhay here?

Nurgozhay was easily submitted in both grappling exchanges he’s faced in UFC, so how much does it matter that he beat one-dimensional boxer Bartosz Szewczyk on DWCS two years ago? I thought the Kazak fighter’s regional win over PFL alum Emiliano Sordi was a statement of strength, but Sordi just wasn’t afforded the chance to grapple as his chin failed to hold up.

I think this is simply a chin check for Brazil’s Rafael Tobias, too. The Chute Box fighter has 15 pro fights at just 22 years old, so even though the level of competition isn’t ideal, he’s got a lot of walks under his belt. Tobias’ DWCS fight was a joke; he easily choked out former heavyweight Yair de Oliveira in under two minutes.

That sort of grappling mismatch is likely the case here if Tobias can get Nurgozhay down. He’s a great athlete, and the more you dig into their regional profiles, I actually think I trust Tobias’ longevity and cardio more.

Nurgozhay has been caught by odd, hard-to-finish submissions because I think he has no idea what he’s doing beyond basic defense in half guard. A sneaky thing to watch here — even if Tobias faces adversity — could be some sort of leg lock for which Chute Box is renown.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: What have we seen from Nurgozhay to even give him a path to victory in this fight? His best hope is a low-volume striking match when Tobias is the most dangerous sub threat he’s faced yet.

Sumudaerji vs. Jesus Aguilar

Flyweight (125 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Sumudaerji	46.42%	19.88%	7.21%	12.67%	26.54%
Aguilar	53.58%	28.77%	9.12%	19.65%	24.81%

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Fights like this are why I have a model. It’d be pretty stunning to see Jesus Aguilar‘s miniature frame defeat such a large fighter, but that’s really not the case when you just look how they’ve fought in UFC thus far.

Aguilar’s 62″ reach is the smallest on the men’s roster, but he’s managed a +0.80 SSR through solid boxing fundamentals and elite striking defense (62%). The fun starts when you hit the ground with him. He averages 5.29 takedown attempts and 1.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes with a patented nasty guillotine choke that thwarted wrestler Stewart Nicoll — and others when he was on the regional scene.

Sumudaerji doesn’t shoot often, but he’d do so at his own peril here. “The Tibetan Eagle” is 5-4 in UFC with decent entry-level takedown D (71%), but a deeper dive shows that his five triumphs have come against fighters a combined 7-15 against all other fighters with UFC.

Aguilar’s distance disadvantage can be erased by one weapon. He’s landed a combined 30 leg kicks in his last two fights, which is — interestingly — a weapon that no one has attempted more than 10 times against the Chinese combatant. If Aguilar was to get Sumudaerji’s back or neck, we’ve also seen the favorite tapped in three of his five losses.

This line seems to be extreme bias toward size, but my model really believes in Aguilar’s strong defensive framework and fight-changing weapons.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: My model has two heat checks with distant underdogs favored, and Aguilar is one of them. There is something about his pressure, leg kicks, and tremendous squeeze that continues to be underrated in betting markets because of his stature.

Cody Durden vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

Flyweight (125 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Durden	Eligible
Tumendemberel	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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After Nyamjargal Tumendemberel, a grappler, failed to tap Carlos Hernandez in his UFC debut, I was pretty sure we’d wouldn’t ever see the Mongolian again in UFC. Road to UFC (RTU)’s lack of overall talent said, “guess again”.

On an odd “UFC but not UFC” event last fall, Tumendemberel secured a first-round submission to essentially stave off the axe. It counted toward UFC results against a non-UFC-level fighter. I was intrigued by Nyamjargal’s lanky, 5’7″ frame that isn’t short on size, but coming off RTU with a -0.15 SSR is really poor. Plus, he’s posted an overall 54% takedown D entering this matchup with a bonafide, credential UFC wrestler in Cody Durden.

“Custom Made” has lost five of six, which is just a tribute to how deep modern flyweight is. Joshua Van, Jose Ochoa, Bruno Silva, and Tagir Ulanbekov are ranked-level fighters on the other side of that skid, but it wasn’t too long ago when Durden landed 19 total takedowns on a four-fight winning streak, including a dub over Charles Johnson.

This betting line indicates some sort of “formality” with Durden that he eventually gets trapped by a sub, but Tumendemberel is no Allan Nascimento. Or Tagir Ulanbekov. Or Muhammad Mokaev. I think it’s a ridiculous narrative to carry into an unproven matchup like this one.

The American Top Team product has a phenomenal chance to end the skid.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Tumendemberel got mopped in all phases by Carlos Hernandez. If the Cody Durden that pitched a shutout against Charles Johnson is still in there, this should be a wrestling masterclass. Durden’s knockout or points (+230) prop is great when he hasn’t hunted submissions often in UFC.

Ricky Turcios vs. Alberto Montes

Featherweight (145 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Turcios	Eligible
Montes	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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We’ve seen plenty of UFC debuts in the first quarter of the season from DWCS, but Alberto Montes‘ is the first one from Season 8 in 2024. An undisclosed injury sidelined the Venezuelan’s career until now.

Assuming Montes is anything like the guy we saw on DWCS, the steam makes sense here. He’s the natural featherweight of these two, and he managed five official submission attempts in less than eight minutes before finally tapping Carlos Calderon. I was most impressed with Montes’ striking accuracy (66%) and defense (57%) at distance, though. I also mentioned how much I like The Goat Shed as a gym from Miami last week with Ailin Perez, and that’s Montes’ primary home.

Ricky Turcios was supposed to fight Cam Smotherman to open 2026 up until Smotherman’s weigh-in disaster, so it’s interesting he’s moving up to get a fight with his contract likely on the line. Smotherman’s poor head defense and lack of grappling offense were a good matchup for “Pretty” Ricky, but neither of those attributes can be applied to Montes. In addition to the size disadvantage, Turcios’ poor takedown D (44%) and tendency to scramble into danger could be an issue in this matchup.

Montes was truly one of Season 8’s brightest stars, so it’s interesting to see his number so playable in this matchup. Even with the layoff concerns, I think he’s the second-most stable favorite on Saturday’s card.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Montes’ layoff creates ambiguity here, but the more likely scenario is Turcios’ massive strength deficit at featherweight gives the favorite an opening to lock up one of his signature chokes.

Donte Johnson vs. Cody Brundage

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Johnson	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Brundage	Eligible

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Two Cody Brundage fades in two consecutive numbered cards? I suppose holding those doors for elderly people paid off in karmic retribution after all.

I cannot believe Brundage survived the latest white flag he waved less than nine minutes into a bout with Australia’s Cam Rowston last month, but this sort of “anytime anywhere” phase of his career has helped him avoid the axe for now — but can’t last forever. As usual, a competitive first round versus Rowston ultimately led to Brundage fading down the stretch, which has historically resulted in improbable losses to Eric McConico, Sedriques Dumas, and others not long for the middleweight roster.

Sure, Cody could clip Donte Johnson in a sloppy brawl. But, the problem with that line of thinking is the former light heavyweight’s granite chin and underrated ability to this point. Johnson followed a 64-second KO on DWCS with a wrestling masterclass to tap Dumas — another infamous quitter — inside eight minutes.

As mentioned last week with Kris Moutinho and Jose Daniel Medina, these problematic trends over samples of three-plus fights typically don’t ever get better. Brundage’s 49% striking D is porous, and his cardio has looked especially terrible in short-notice opportunities when facing Dumas, McConico, Abdul Razak-Alhassan, Nick Maximov…and, now, Donte Johnson.

This is a five-minute sweat with a favorite in “Lock Jaw” that showed plenty of staying power in his UFC debut.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I play a “five-minute sweat” on almost every card, and this is an easy spot at +120 when Brundage is often quite competitive in the first five minutes. His tendency to fade could prove painful against an uber-athletic fighter like Johnson.

Cody Garbrandt vs. Long Xiao

Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Garbrandt	47.61%	20.28%	19.19%	1.09%	27.33%
Xiao	52.39%	17.98%	14.82%	3.17%	34.40%

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A 2026 featured prelim with Cody Garbrandt? Zoinks. A winnable fight for him? Double zoinks.

The much-maligned former bantamweight champion is still riding a larger 3-7 skid dating back to losing his title in 2017, but there’s undoubtedly been improvement along the way. Garbrandt has lost technical grappling affairs to two worthy combatants, Deiveson Figueiredo and Raoni Barcelos, in his last two starts. He really hasn’t been lulled into a brawl since 2019; the issue has been maintaining efficient striking offense (39% accuracy) without much offense ever coming from his wrestling.

Garbrandt likely enters a standup affair with Long Xiao (0.69 takedowns per 15 landed) here — especially when “No Love” has maintained an excellent 83% takedown D exiting his prime. Xiao is a physical specimen that has stood and banged his way to a 1-2 UFC record thus far, but I’d be lying if I said we had a great measuring stick considering his opponents’ 6-4 combined record in UFC. All but Quang Le came from RTU, too.

I’d almost consider Garbrandt his first taste of the actual, established roster, and Long’s striking D (50%) is quite hittable on paper before this matchup. The former champ has maintained an excellent 2.38% knockdown rate (KD%), which was on display during his last win in 2023 over Brian Kelleher.

For the first time since Kelleher, Garbrandt might actually have openings to land power punches. Raoni and Figgy are brutal matchups for inaccurate power punchers. For those concerned about the chin, Xiao has also dropped just one of his six octagon opponents.

Hey, Fetty Wap is back like it’s 2016, too. I think the weathered Team Alpha Male combatant can turn back the clock at T-Mobile on Saturday.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Matty says he doesn’t trust Cody Garbrandt here, but what has Long Xiao done to merit chalk? I think this is a FOTN sleeper where Garbrandt gets the nods on the cards due to power punches. Don’t be shocked if Cody drops Xiao multiple times.

Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Rodrigues	61.55%	38.89%	22.30%	16.59%	22.66%
Ferreira	38.45%	21.69%	12.90%	8.78%	16.76%

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It is so interesting to see Gregory Rodrigues is positioned just slightly longer in odds than he was when he squared off with Brunno Ferreira in 2023.

At that time, Ferreira was an unknown kid stepping in on short notice in Rio. “The Hulk” used a stunning first-round knockout of Rodrigues to start a 6-2 UFC run that just included his first career decision win over Marvin Vettori. We’ve seen power punches (1.79 KD%) in bunches from him with hints of submission offense (0.8 attempts per 15), as well.

Of course, “Robocop” is no worse for wear from what largely has been chalked up to a fluke. He’s won five of his six fights since that setback, and the lone “L” was a fight where he dropped Jared Cannonier twice early before succumbing to exhaustion. Not many are doubting the Kill Cliff FC product’s skills or resume off a bludgeoning of Roman Kopylov.

Ironically enough, I cashed Ferreira around +200 when these guys first fought and agree with my model’s strong conviction in a Robocop win here. That result was lucky. We’ve seen Ferreira battle weight and cardio issues, and his 61% takedown D is a problem when Rodrigues proved to grind out Christian Leroy Duncan with his wrestling. CLD is a better fighter.

Ferreira is probably knockout or bust again, and Rodrigues’ striking D (50%) isn’t great. I can’t pick the underdog on that basis, though.

As this line has widened too far, I’ll once again — as usual — play the model’s recommended longshot darts at the favorite’s submission prop. He’s too good of a grappler to not have locked anything up yet.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: When this fight didn’t go four minutes in 2023 yet is a pick ’em to go over 1.5 rounds now, oddsmakers are leaking the answers. I think Robocop takes a smarter gameplan to wear on Ferreira — who isn’t always in the best shape — and eventually lock up his first UFC sub. 

Drew Dober vs. Michael Johnson

Lightweight (155 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Dober	56.19%	37.24%	27.38%	9.86%	18.95%
Johnson	43.81%	17.36%	16.22%	1.14%	26.45%

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This betting line has tightened throughout the week, and I think a pick ’em might be appropriate between two unreliable veterans with plenty of attrition.

Michael Johnson has won four of five, but the level of competition is noteworthy. Daniel Zellhuber is his only win still on the roster — for now. “The Menace” has pretty defined strengths and weaknesses at this point. The former is his elite hand speed and boxing, and the latter is a fading chin and 0-5 record to submission outcomes with UFC.

If Drew Dober really did want to make sure he found a “win”, grappling might be the way to go, but that’s just not really how the Coloradan rolls. Dober wants to stand and bang, using his plus power (0.93 KD%) and battle-tested ability to eat punches to be the last one standing.

Johnson should win minutes here based on volume and hand speed, but one Dober right hand could end the fight. Plus, I think there is a potential grappling path that should be worth something.

The model was ahead of the line movement toward Dober — likely because he can win several ways to Johnson’s path of skirting for a full 15.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: All three outcomes are live for Dober given Johnson’s historical grappling limitations, so I played Dober’s moneyline at +125 on Sunday, and that’ll be all. He’s still a good bet at current numbers.

Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr.

Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Font	55.52%	14.53%	7.62%	6.91%	40.99%
Rosas Jr.	44.48%	20.42%	4.90%	15.52%	24.06%

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The median championship age in UFC history is right around 30, which is why I am a bit weary of Raul Rojas Jr. at heavy chalk.

“El Nino Problema” has regained momentum with four straight wins since a 2023 “fraud check” against Christian Rodriguez, but going to decisions (albeit unanimous ones) against Aoriqileng and Vince Morales alone aren’t full indication that the 21-year-old is ready for the rankings.

I get him being favored, though. Rob Font has a historically terrible 43% takedown D, but the veteran has been in the rankings for over six years. Takedowns alone don’t win fights in 2026, though. Jean Matusmoto landed seven of them but still lost to Font’s elite jab, boxing volume, and ability to put combinations together.

The New England Cartel product will usually get model approval based on his +1.66 SSR, and he’s sort of won this fight before. Kyler Phillips landed four takedowns and lost. Matsumoto lost. David Martinez’s speed at distance was too much for Font to handle, but Rosas’ distance sample (50% striking D) is closer to concerning than competitive.

Using modern scoring criteria, it’s sort of easy to see another prospect turned back by the veteran here.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Rosas Jr. didn’t even ace his previous easier matchups, and now he’s stepping up in competition? I’m not sure where he separates from a durable veteran with a knack for staying safe on bottom. This fight could be irritating to watch.

Caio Borralho vs. Reinier de Ridder

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Borralho	57.81%	30.85%	20.94%	9.91%	26.95%
de Ridder	42.19%	17.90%	4.94%	12.96%	24.29%

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I love when my model alternates between fading and supporting a fighter. I think it’s giving an accurate tale of the tape when it can be flexible in certain matchups.

It favored Reinier de Ridder over Robert Whittaker but liked Brendan Allen before Allen’s upset win in Edmonton. Here, I’ve got a slightly pro “RDR” verdict, and I will say that the former ONE champion is definitely a buy-low candidate after melting in his last fight.

Beyond de Ridder’s world-class grappling, his creative striking (+0.16 SSR) bothered both Whittaker and Bo Nickal, and Caio Borralho is coming off a fight where he never found the distance or timing against a crafty 185er himself.

Borralho, the captain of the Fighting Nerds, was a slight favorite to dethrone Nassourdine Imavov before that lapse in a fight where he was unable to get his wrestling going. That’s now consecutive fights without that element of his game after brawling Jared Cannonier to a win prior to that bout in Paris.

This is a weird matchup that could be somewhat uneventful at distance, but would Borralho really grapple to his own peril here? Sure, the 35-year-old Dutchman’s chin could just be dust, but I think the number is wide when RDR’s grappling advantage also comes with the understanding that a 15-minute striking match could easily go his way.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Something doesn’t smell right about Caio Borralho. His level of competition on the way up wasn’t great, and RDR has proven to hang with three ranked-level guys in their prime already until his body gave way. This could be a strategic, low-volume distance battle where de Ridder’s big weapons provide the smallest advantage.

Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira

Five-Round “BMF” Title – Lightweight (155 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Holloway	62.14%	41.95%	28.57%	13.38%	20.19%
Oliveira	37.86%	28.57%	7.17%	21.40%	9.29%

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From my analytical world where striking margin is the true indication of skill, you could make an argument Max Holloway is the undisputed G.O.A.T. of UFC.

Holloway’s records of 3,655 career significant strikes landed and 445 significant strikes landed in a fight will likely never be broken when you consider the durability, grappling defense, lack of power, and fight style all required in conjunction to post those numbers together. At 34, it’s not even a certainty that he’s completely out of his prime after dominating Dustin Poirier with a +89 striking differential last July.

In terms of overall ability, it’s not crazy to think Charles Oliveira is still in the same class as “Blessed”, though. Oliveira submitted Mateusz Gamrot last fall in Rio to set up this matchup. Both fighters were dismantled by Ilia Topuria, so a 155-pound title bout doesn’t make a ton of sense quite yet.

“Do Bronx” is the ultimate story of perseverance, and he is truly a violence-inducing professional as UFC’s all-time leader in performance bonuses, but that aggression bit him against both Topuria and Islam Makhachev. He was dropped to ultimately end the bout.

This matchup provides a ton of uncertainty to the outcome. Holloway’s 0.33 KD% just isn’t the type of one-punch power that has given Oliveira problems, but Max’s 83% takedown D has notoriously been difficult to crack. The favorite has a knack for always fighting his type of fight, but that could also prove to keep Oliveira in the fight by landing harder shots, and Charles could steal a round or two if he’s able to secure a backpack position.

While proud my model is so closely aligned with oddsmakers, it doesn’t give me an extremely clear betting angle here. Though tiny Oliveira sprinkles make sense, I guess I should just pop some popcorn and enjoy.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Chalk in main events has nuked bettors in 2026, and I’m not sure Max Holloway’s decline is getting enough attention. He’s been dropped in consecutive fights since the Gaethje knockout. “Do Bronx” might be sloppy at times on the feet, but if he can avoid early power when fresh, this seems like a barnburner that lives up to a BMF title fight’s reputation. How do you not take swings on the Brazilian at much longer odds?