UFC 327 Betting Primer: Fight Predictions, Props, and Model Results for Prochazka vs. Ulberg

We’ve braced for impact at several underwhelming cards for months, but that’s not UFC 327. This card lost a flyweight title fight on Saturday yet is still stacked to the gills.

If you’re new here, this is my betting primer. I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’ll be right; I just want to get it right, and I’ll give you my best effort every week.

I invite you to join the fan club of Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed it or would rather read, I’ve got you.

From a betting perspective, let’s preview UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg, taking place at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.

UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg Betting Picks and Props

 

Charles Radtke vs. Francisco Prado

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Radtke	61.61%	22.91%	10.20%	12.71%	38.71%
Prado	38.39%	23.19%	16.34%	6.85%	15.19%

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I think most will presumptively click “Chuck Buffalo” here. Even if not dying to support Francisco Prado, I’d think twice.

Charles Radtke‘s UFC resume is just extremely bloated. His four wins have come over foes with a combined 7-14 record fighting for the promotion. The step-ups have been too large in the form of Carlos Prates or Mike Malott, who both dispensed him within six minutes. It’s just tough to tell where the 23-year-old Prado, who is 1-4, stacks up.

On record, he fits the mold of a Radtke win, but this is a fighter in his early 20s who has been thrown in with four multi-time UFC winners. The size mismatch at welterweight against Nikolay Veretennikov was comical in nature. At the very least, Radtke’s 5’9″ frame won’t be visually intimidating.

In terms of striking success rate (SSR), Radtke (+0.17) is ahead of Prado (-0.86) — but not by the gap I expected. That’s especially true when factoring in the level of competition. If anything undoes the Argentinian here, I think it’s his 50% takedown D.

Prado’s American Top Team training could pay massive dividends with the improvement needed to best what I see as a gatekeeper of the 170-pound roster. I just don’t have a great read on this fight, and a model result stuck in the middle of the moneyline is probably why.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Prado is well-trained and has been in bad positions and hasn’t ever truly been in a situation to get finished, but his takedown D is a problem. I like Radtke’s -3.5 spread (+100) to encapsulate a clean decision win or submission with his grappling game.

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Gastelum	54.71%	23.14%	15.67%	7.47%	31.57%
Luque	45.29%	22.91%	10.63%	12.28%	22.37%

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It’s been a bizarre descent from the rankings for Vicente Luque, who will now try his hand at 185 pounds after getting dominated by a former lightweight. That doesn’t sound ideal.

Luque sheltered in place for three rounds against Joel Alvarez to seemingly turn his intention to survival in lieu of winning, and Alvarez — for some reason — let him off the hook. It was the second time he’d almost seemingly quit in a fight after pulling guard against Joaquin Buckley, and Kevin Holland also made him pay for an ill-timed takedown attempt in their matchup. Inarguably, the mental part of the game has troubled him badly of late.

Luckily, we’ll shelve the concerns moving up in weight opposite Kelvin Gastelum at UFC 327. The American is another blown-up welterweight whose conditioning has always been a question, but I’ve also been a doubter of how he truly wins or affects fights. The “power puncher” has just a 0.79% knockdown rate (KD%), and his efficiency (+0.14 SSR) doesn’t go far with most. In fact, his 60% takedown D led to some really lopsided losses against Sean Brady, Jack Hermansson, and others.

Most have been out on Luque since a bout of brain hemorrhaging after taking on Geoff Neal, but he’s also thrown out grappling masterclasses against Rafael dos Anjos and Themba Gorimbo since those injuries. I don’t think it’s crazy he can, close to home, do it again if he can avoid the killshot from Gastelum. That killshot, by the way, has been few and far between considering he just went a hard 15 with a chinny Dustin Stoltzfus.

Just know that a bet on the Brazilian carries risk he quits again, but that’s largely baked into a cost that has widened all week.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: No one on the planet wants to bet Luque, yet this line hasn’t budged all week. I think that, skill-for-skill, he’s the better fighter, but you’ve got to price in the quit potential. Given Gastelum’s iron chin, I’ll play the Brazilian’s submission or decision prop (+280) and sub sprinkles (+1100) when Hermansson made it happen via heel hook.

MarQuel Mederos vs. Chris Padilla

Lightweight (155 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Mederos	38.94%	10.67%	8.28%	2.39%	28.27%
Padilla	61.06%	14.81%	4.93%	9.89%	46.25%

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Closing line value in UFC is often a fool’s errand. I think we buy the dip with Chris Padilla here.

You’d have figured the undefeated UFC record of MarQuel Mederos wouldn’t be a moderate underdog to stay perfect, but a peek into Mederos’ UFC record is frighteningly poor. He went to tight decisions with Landon Quinones and Austin Hubbard before a short-notice fight with Mark Choinski that definitely wasn’t a blowout. All in all, Mederos’ +1.85 SSR is clean with positive striking accuracy (56%) and defense (58%), but he’s been shooting fish in a barrel.

“Taco” Padilla is a massive step up — which would have been shocking to say three years ago. The Californian’s regional setbacks and unsuccessful cup of coffee in Bellator never would have been thought to produce a guy who dominated multi-time UFC winners in their prime like Rongzhu and Ismael Bonfim. He’s been an underdog in all four UFC fights — until now.

Mederos’ archetype is not, I think, one that ultimately has long-term success at 155. He’s got a shorter reach, a slender frame, and doesn’t have any upside to grapple offensively, and it’s only going to get tougher from here.

I genuinely debated not modeling Mederos’ sample because the competition has been so bad, and he still returned a significant underdog price here. Though agreeing with the model that Padilla might be hard-pressed to finish a fourth UFC finish, I do think that “Taco” is probably the better fighter wherever this one goes.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Padilla’s weight miss is a little concerning, but this is a short-notice fight. If anything, added mass could widen the physicality gap here, but it’ll come down to whether Padilla can check kicks. I don’t mind the model’s verdict of a decision (+160) in the favorite’s direction.

Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godinez

Women’s Strawweight (115 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Suarez	58.03%	17.17%	2.35%	14.81%	40.87%
Godinez	41.97%	11.42%	0.70%	10.72%	30.55%

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There’s quietly a lot of pressure on Tatiana Suarez this weekend.

At 35 years old, Suarez has been passed in this 115-pound division. Yes, she’s still a dominant wrestler, landing 4.41 takedowns per 15 minutes with solid accuracy (43%), but her nonexistent standup has a ceiling.

Her last fight against Amanda Lemos — and Lemos’ tendency to jump the guillotine — was a layup, racking up 9:36 in control time in a similar fashion as Gillian Robertson, Weili Zhang, and others have done to the Brazilian. She really needs a statement more than a close, 29-28 win over Loopy Godinez to have any hope of re-entering the title picture.

Godinez, on the other hand, is finally looking to break through. She’s lost competitive fights to Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba — and won them against Tabatha Ricci, Julia Polastri, Jessica Andrade, and others. All of the Mexican’s fights seem to be won or lost by razor-thin margins, where her own fight IQ has been costly at times.

This matchup does have drama. If Godinez’s 81% takedown D holds, Suarez is probably as screwed as she was against Zhang. However, Suarez is also significantly larger than either Dern or Jandiroba, which could put Godinez in a bad position to make a mistake.

Godinez is 2-4 in fights where her opponent has taken her down at least once. It makes me wonder whether her analytical takedown D might just be inflated by Ricci (0-for-6) and Emily Ducote (0-for-4) rather than by credentialed wrestlers.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Entering this fight’s betting market seems like the snake pit. The under isn’t big enough, and the over is ridiculous for Suarez’s submission skills and limitations. This fight to end in a split (+350) and Suarez to win that split (+650) seem surprisingly playable.

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics

Lightweight (155 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Gamrot	49.22%	7.68%	3.69%	3.98%	41.54%
Ribovics	50.78%	16.75%	8.18%	8.57%	34.03%

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We’ve seen Mateusz Gamrot in the rankings for years, so this model result has to be a bit jarring. It’s rarely loved the Polish fighter’s style when it comes to winning modern fights, though.

Gamrot’s style doesn’t score. He lands just 3.29 significant strikes per minute with mediocre distance striking, and his wrestling volume (5.15 landed per 15) hasn’t come with any real submission danger. While his efforts against Ludovit Klein and Rafael dos Anjos were dominant in terms of control time, he just didn’t do much. Guys like Dan Hooker and Beneil Dariush kept their feet and dropped him to win, and Charles Oliveira showed that Gamrot’s BJJ isn’t even on par with Max Holloway’s.

In his UFC debut at 26, Esteban Ribovics allowed 11 takedowns to Loik Radzhabov, and that could be as simple as this handicap gets. It’s a weakness he can’t overcome. However, he’s rallied to a 66% takedown D overall, stuffing 13 of the last 14 attempts he’s faced.

At striking distance, Ribovics (+1.79 SSR) will dominate Gamrot (+0.33). It’s a question of whether his takedown D gives him enough minutes there to bank rounds, and the argument of “damage” over “control” is so perversely skewed toward strikers in 2026.

My model likes a decision when Ribovics’ 0.48 KD% hasn’t shown a ton of knockout power, but the Argentinian is one of my favorite underdog picks this weekend.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: The model’s stake of the week is having Ribovics (+170 on Novig) a slight favorite. Gamrot just doesn’t score, so he could rally through control time to win rounds with late striking flurries, and hurting the Polish favorite wouldn’t be too surprising, either.

Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Holland	49.59%	30.03%	16.96%	13.08%	19.56%
Brown	50.41%	28.32%	15.50%	12.82%	22.08%

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This fight is the Spider-Man meme come to life. This fight is a pick ’em if one has ever existed in theory in UFC.

Welterweights Kevin Holland and Randy Brown largely make their living the same way. They’re long, athletic strikers with accurate power punches and sneaky submission danger. Neither is a great offensive wrestler. Both have questionable striking defense and/or chin concerns at times. It’s why the model’s results are so close across all three categories; who knows where the actual separation is in this fight?

Both are also looking for momentum after recent setbacks. Holland’s inexplicable loss to Daniel Rodriguez as a -225 favorite might have been another instance of the Houston native not taking his career overly seriously, and he was handicapped by multiple groin fouls by Mike Malott in Canada that weren’t properly penalized. Brown’s last fight — and first career main event — saw him get his leg chopped off by Gabriel Bonfim’s leg kicks.

Leg kicks should be a huge weapon for both here, and I think Holland’s have more tangible impact. I also trust Holland’s chin slightly more despite the Rodriguez fiasco, too.

There’s also a high-level experience edge for Holland when he fought Malott, Jack Della Maddalena, and Stephen Thompson so closely for at least 15 minutes in this same division. When “Rudeboy” has forayed into the rankings, he’s 0-3 with all three losses coming inside 10 minutes.

Above all, I played the number on Sunday. I’d have taken either of these gentlemen at the +120 odds I found behind “Big Mouth”.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: It was so obvious this fight was going to close at a pick ’em, so I got Holland at +120, and it’s too late to bet either’s moneyline now. At current prices, the model likes Brown ITD (+380), but I have to ride with my guy Matty, expecting Holland to seal the deal that Zaleski dos Santos couldn’t.

Patricio “Pitbull” Friere vs. Aaron Pico

Featherweight (145 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Friere	Eligible
Pico	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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Timing never worked out for Patricio Pitbull and Aaron Pico to meet in Bellator, so I love this idea from UFC.

Pico seemed in line to set up that sort of meeting before a shoulder injury in 2022, and he’s undoubtedly the rising fighter entering a 2026 bout. Entering his analytical prime at 29, we saw the physical dominance from Pico to ragdoll Lerone Murphy in his debut for several minutes before the bad of Pico’s skill set — defense as an afterthought — ate a spinning elbow that produced one of the highlights of last year.

The pace, pressure, and physicality of the Jackson-Wink MMA product should be too much for Pitbull here, but we’ll see if the old dog has one last stand. Pitbull’s standing on the roster was in jeopardy before he — like so many others — found success getting to his takedowns against Dan Ige to win by decision.

Grappling doesn’t seem to be a path to success against a younger, wild fighter like Pico, and I just don’t give the Brazilian — a better fighter skill-for-skill — much of a chance pulling the upset when his last early knockout came in November 2020. He just doesn’t have that momentary equalizer that has been responsible for all five of the Californians’ setbacks.

Pitbull has been stopped just 3 times in 45 pro fights, but Father Time comes for us all. It’s tough to make a living as a 38-year-old featherweight. I think the favorite finds a stoppage here.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I think the Pico that fought Murphy runs through a weathered, aged Pitbull. I played Pico’s R1/R2 prop (+175) with KO sprinkles, given that the Brazilian has only been tapped via guillotine choke, and I don’t expect him to shoot into Pico a single time.

Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr

Featherweight (145 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Swanson	55.23%	30.78%	23.50%	7.28%	24.45%
Landwehr	44.77%	32.01%	15.94%	16.06%	12.77%

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We’ve seen Eryk Anders and Michael Chiesa retire in recent weeks with wins. Does Cub Swanson add to the list in his swan song?

Swanson has been open about retirement for seemingly years, but the 42-year-old hasn’t looked weathered in his last three fights. Swanson took a hard-fought nod over Hakeem Dawodu, lost a split decision to Andre “The Split” Fili, and found a third-round hammer against Billy Quarantillo. Considering he’s still heavily involved in training Lerryan Douglas, Danny Silva, and others at his gym, I just don’t think the retirement angle works for a guy looking to “mail it in”.

UFC did well to match him up with a fellow all-action fighter, Nate Landwehr, for this occasion. “Nate the Train” has been involved in several memorable brawls, outlasting David Onama, Jamall Emmers, and others. However, even Dooho Choi was a step up in competition that nearly saw the Clarksville native get finished. Landwehr’s style sounds better in theory than his -0.20 SSR on paper.

Landwehr is a violent, wild guy opposite someone in his 40s, so I get fading Swanson on principle. However, Cub’s recent level of competition has been significantly better, and his defensive responsibility at distance (59%) could allow him to get the better of exchanges when Quarantillo learned he still packs a punch.

If anything, Swanson’s historical vulnerability to submission danger (0-5 in UFC via sub) is probably Landwehr’s best path, but Nate has also been dropped in 5 of his 10 appearances. Violence is a good bet, but I also had to lean that angle toward Swanson at these odds. He’d be at least -135 if he weren’t publicly retiring.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Landwehr’s prime moments against Ludovit Klein or David Onama came via extreme adversity. Even in his 40s, Cub is too technical and too defensively responsible for him. I favor Swanson by knockout or decision, relegating “The Train” to submission-or-bust status.

Dominick Reyes vs. Johnny Walker

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Reyes	59.77%	40.71%	33.66%	7.05%	19.06%
Walker	40.23%	26.30%	19.57%	6.73%	13.93%

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We’ve got a meme coming in South Florida. There’s no way a Dominick Reyes and Johnny Walker fight doesn’t end in hilarious fashion.

That could be a petrified decision, but it’s most likely a finish when 8 of these two’s 11 UFC losses have come by knockout. They’ve both been on the wrong side of highlight reels while creating plenty of their own. Reyes’ early wins over Dustin Jacoby and Nikita Krylov haven’t aged poorly, and Walker defied the odds to turn back Zhang Mingyang in Shanghai. Both recently dominated a weathered Anthony Smith, too.

Analytically, Reyes seems to be the better fighter. His +1.90 SSR towers over Walker’s (+0.97) when he’s also the one who went five rounds with — and arguably beat — Jon Jones. There’s a more technical aspect to his boxing than that of Walker, who really struggles when moving backward and in boxing range. He used calf kicks to chop at Mingyang.

The interesting handicap in this matchup is that attrition and chin are major issues for both men. It’s arguably equal — though Reyes has a larger percentage of fights unaffected by his chin.

If that’s the case, I think you just take the better fighter, who would probably be -175 or higher in this spot if his loss to Ulberg hadn’t happened within a few weeks of Walker’s unexpected upset of an — it must be said — fairly unproven Mingyang. Before that, Walker’s last decent win was against Ion Cutelaba in 2022.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Whether this fight takes an early or late tenure, I expect Reyes (-125) to win it. He’s got boxing and pressure that have pinned Walker against the cage historically, and his volume in extended fights has been significantly better. Walker would really have to chop his leg early to even the playing field here. The overs are probably underpriced, too.

Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit

Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Blaydes	Eligible
Hokit	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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While most of us see through the guise of Josh Hokit, the UFC doesn’t. They’re ready for Colby Covington 2.0 in their saddest division.

Hokit is, undoubtedly, getting a push into the top five with this matchup against Curtis Blaydes, which is very winnable. Hokit dismantled two unproven roster-cloggers in the forms of Max Gimenis and Denzel Freeman, but the former NFL fullback’s dominance and athleticism translate immediately in a way similar to Greg Hardy’s. The difference? At Jackson-Wink MMA, Hokit has rounded out skills to show serviceable aggressive hands, elite takedown entries for heavyweight, and excellent cardio.

This matchup is a good reminder to never let heart get in the way. Blaydes was the up-and-comer when I started watching UFC, but he’s now 35, and I’ve got fewer tangible skills to win high-level heavyweight fights as the division continues to evolve. “Razor” saw his takedown defense (31%) dismantled by a now-cut Jailton Almeida in addition to getting chinned by Sergei Pavlovich, Derrick Lewis, and more.

In 20 UFC fights, he’s also never authored a submission attempt. That’s a mammoth red flag when Blaydes, theoretically, could have coasted at heavyweight so long on just the strength of his wrestling. Shooting telegraphed takedowns into Hokit just won’t work, though. We’ve seen enough to know that.

I get it. Hokit hasn’t beaten anyone, so Blaydes at just -330 seems so appealing. He’s got high-level experience, but in the last five years, it’s been taking down fat guys and not even finishing them. Hokit’s violence and danger in ground situations, paired with less attrition at distance, make him the pick.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Hokit’s act hasn’t earned him any fans, but he’s fast with the better standup of these two. I just think Blaydes’ historical path to success isn’t on the table here, so he’ll need to show Hokit’s chin is poor to win. I bet Hokit’s moneyline (+110) concerned that Blaydes’ chin is actually worse. I have a hard time diagnosing exactly how this fight looks, though.

Azamat Murzakanov vs. Paulo Costa

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Murzakanov	64.88%	27.54%	25.40%	2.14%	37.34%
Costa	35.12%	6.82%	5.77%	1.05%	28.30%

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This is a fascinating fight — and model result.

Presumably, the UFC would prefer Paulo Costa snatch Azamat Murzakanov‘s ranking and enter the 205-pound title conversation. The much-maligned former middleweight contender just has more personality between his “secret juice“, social media presence, and propensity to find himself in entertaining wars. It’s tough to tell what ever happened to Costa in his fight with Israel Adesanya, but each passing loss for the latter indicates some of those medical excuses might have been valid.

Costa’s on a fine run in this second serious UFC campaign. He dominated Luke Rockhold before competitive losses to Sean Strickland and Robert Whittaker, and his best UFC win over Roman Kopylov came last summer. Murzakanov would easily be his new best win to date, though.

“The Professional” is no Russian wrestler, though. He’s dropped all seven of his UFC-affiliated opponents with his elite boxing, and his striking accuracy (57%) and defense (60%) are phenomenal. I knew he was legitimate when he mowed through Dustin Jacoby in Jacoby’s wheelhouse.

Though there is a bit of a skill chasm between 185 and 205 pounds, Murzakanov’s +1.84 SSR towers over Costa’s +0.06, and the reach is fairly equal. I don’t have any concerns about the Brazilian’s iron chin or takedown D (80%) in this new weight class, but it’s hard for me to see anyone outstriking Murzakanov when he’s fresh.

The question becomes if Costa can keep a high enough pace to take the final two rounds as he tires — or potentially find a finish. I just don’t think so, given that better strikers like Whittaker and Strickland dictated his tempo, and Costa’s power (0.57 KD%) looks nothing like his physique on paper.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Costa has been a great “hammer”, but he’s struggled mightily in even-matched fights. Murzakanov’s fundamentals are excellent, so I think Paulo has trouble finding his openings. Keep an eye on well-timed wrestling tries from the Russian, too. For all the smack talk, I actually think this fight could be quite boring.

Jiri Prochazka vs. Carlos Ulberg

Five-Round Interim Title Fight – Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Prochazka	42.77%	24.37%	20.32%	4.04%	18.40%
Ulberg	57.23%	40.20%	33.37%	6.83%	17.03%

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I love Jiri Prochazka‘s style in the octagon. It’s unique. It’s never been boring. He’s quite literally a samurai from the Czech Republic.

There have been some real politics in Prochzaka’s UFC schedule, though. He’s avoided a likely third unsuccessful rematch with Alex “Poatan” Pereira as that shift to heavyweight took place, and Magomed Ankalaev — a powerful, defensively responsible striker — has miraculously never shown up in his bracket. His non-Pereira schedule has been filled with irresponsible, low-volume, or chinny strikers since a Glover Teixeira title fight, where he was hurt badly on multiple occasions and might have lost without a fifth-round submission.

Prochazka’s 45% striking D — especially early — is just tremendously poor. He still doesn’t check leg kicks. Wading forward through damage won’t work in most high-level matchups against a Pereira or Ankalaev. Is Carlos Ulberg in that category?

After lauding “Black Jag” as the best light heavyweight on the planet — Pereira included — for a couple of years, I feel a bit of pressure for him to dispatch an opponent with flaws like Jiri. Ulberg’s +2.50 SSR has just continued to hold through top-10 competition, and he’s had no problem shifting down to decisions or shifting up to find early knockouts. It’s rare to find someone comfortable in both types of scraps. His only setback was a UFC debut he was dominating — and got caught — against Kennedy Nzechukwu.

Ulberg’s 85% takedown D has also held up against more legitimate threats, and there’s seemingly no doubt that these two will stand and bang. With that said, only one of them is actually good at it. Jiri needed a fading Rountree Jr. or damaged Jamahal Hill to rally for recent wins. This matchup, to me, seems more like the Poatan one stylistically, where Ulberg will be patient, chop at Jiri’s leg, and look to snipe.

My model’s verdict tracks with that. Jiri might win a decision on optics and pressure if this fight is extended, but Ulberg rarely overextends, and he’s cool if not lethal under pressure. The most likely result of this fight is that he catches Jiri at some point rather than vice versa. Ulberg’s hasn’t been dropped since 2021.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I’ve learned this week how underrated Ulberg is despite the winning streak. He’s, by statistical measure, the best combination of efficiency, accuracy, and power as a striker in this division now that Pereira is gone. That guy will probably have the same early success that Hill and Rountree Jr. had, and the consequences of that should be significantly more dire. Ulberg’s R1/R2/R3 prop (+220) works when the submission inclusions are basically free.