UFC Houston Betting Primer: Fight Predictions, Props, and Model Results

UFC Houston is the return of a road show this weekend, and Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez can take a Texas-sized two-step toward the title picture if he’s able to maul Sean Strickland like his prior foes. Will it happen?

If you’re new here, this is my betting primer. I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for a half decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model that tries to find the answer using data for fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’m going to be right; I just want to get it right, and you’ll get my best effort every week.

I invite you to join the fan club of Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed it or would rather read on Friday at the office, I’ve got you.

From a betting perspective, let’s preview UFC Houston: Strickland vs. Hernandez, taking place at the Toyota Center in Houston, TX on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.

UFC Houston Betting Picks and Props

 

Juliana Miller vs. Carli Judice

Women’s Flyweight (125 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Miller	31.87%	12.31%	2.02%	10.29%	19.56%
Judice	68.13%	21.77%	19.97%	1.79%	46.36%

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The nickname “Crispy” might transform into “Can Crusher” if Carli Judice doesn’t get a proper test soon.

UFC is clearly bringing the 26-year-old kickboxing star in the making along slowly, setting up laughable striking matches with Nicolle Caliari and Yuniesy Dubin — two fortunate winner on Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) as underdogs. Judice’s foe at UFC Houston also pulled an upset to earn her contract. Julianna Miller did so on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) in 2022.

“Killer” Miller’s UFC tenure hasn’t gone according to plan, though. She was finished in Round 1 (via strikes) by Luana Santos after getting dismantled with minimal wrestling defense by Veronica Hardy. At this point, her striking (36%) and takedown (44%) defense have been so poor that she needed a fortunate result in an ugly slog against Ivana Petrovic (1-3 UFC) for her only promotional triumph.

Are Judice’s -850 odds too wide entering her first legitimate grappling matchup? Definitely. However, Miller will be resigned stalling against an athletic fighter who has shown great ability to sprawl (77% takedown D) and excellent cardio. Obviously, on the feet, Judice’s +2.65 striking success rate (SSR) is going to whoop Miller (-1.05 SSR) without any issue.

That stall, though, could mean Judice finds the cards for the first time in three fights — in a division with the highest decision rate of any weight class. I think that’s the way to approach this wide number.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: This fight to go the distance (+140) and Judice’s decision prop (+230) were surprisingly playable for me on Wednesday. It is worth laddering them in case Miller’s takedown threat is indeed something that “Crispy” fails to navigate.

Jordan Leavitt vs. Yadier del Valle

Featherweight (145 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Leavitt	Eligible
del Valle	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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This is a curious pivot for Jordan Leavitt coming off a win in the lightweight division.

“The Monkey King” is a fun grappling specialist and one of just three UFC fighters to finish Kurt Holobaugh as he did via submission in his last fight. Leavitt’s 1.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes have proven lethal, but he’s also shown difficulty getting some matchups to the ground, per a 30% takedown accuracy, to make it count.

Moving down in weight could certainly aid the physical element of his game, but I’m also worried about his chin plus cardio, which dropped Round 3 to both Trey Ogden and Claudio Puelles. Yadier del Valle is a tough draw for anyone trying to get a physical advantage in this division, though.

Though perhaps aided by foul play, del Valle mauled Isaac Dulgarian after an impressive DWCS bid at distance. He also submitted Connor Matthews in his UFC debut. As a result, the Cuban’s +3.38 SSR is second-best on this entire card entering this bout, and striking is where he should have his largest advantage when Leavitt has struggled to 2.49 signficiant strikes landed per minute. Leavitt hasn’t landed more than 10 distance signficiant strikes since 2022!

del Valle is a credentialed black belt, so if you enter this handicap saying he can avoid Leavitt’s early (but mighty) ground game, these odds might even represent a discount.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I don’t think the gain Leavitt gets from dropping down offsets his cardio and durability concerns. I played del Valle’s moneyline (-425) and ITD prop (-165) in parlays and am adding R2/R3 ladders.

Phil Rowe vs. Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Rowe	Eligible
Lebosnoyani	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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Some hitters in baseball fail to ever patch a noted hole in their swing and fade out of the big leagues. Hopefully for his sake, Phil Rowe finds a way to patch his.

The 6’3″ welterweight was always going to give this division problems with his length, and his slick jab amplifies those issues. However, the cost of that length can be leverage, which is why he’s really lost a majority of his last two fights against Ange Loosa and Seokhyeon Ko, ceding seven takedowns in the process. Loosa coughed up the early lead, but it’s a problem. We’ll see if Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani has the right tools and gameplan in his UFC debut.

It was a bit of a shocker that “JPL” landed a vicious head kick on DWCS to earn his contract after entering that fight with five of his eight pro wins via sub. The well-rounded Californian does have a nasty top game on tape, but it’s at a significantly lower level of competition in LFA.

Length alone just doesn’t win UFC fights anymore. Lebosnoyani is a highly regarded prospect with good low kicks, great submission skills, and — clearly — some pop in his shots. He has ways to compete in this fight even without takedowns, but it’s also probably not a high bar to clear to guess he can wrestle on par with Loosa’s effort.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: This is the sketchiest moneyline on the card, but Lebosnoyani was one of the stars of this past season of DWCS and should have a clear gameplan to attack. I like my co-host’s notion of JPL’s decision prop (+350) given Rowe’s defensive grappling improvements.

Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Punahele Soriano

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Brahimaj	44.91%	31.46%	7.03%	24.43%	13.45%
Soriano	55.09%	17.64%	14.19%	3.45%	37.45%

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It’s important as a UFC bettor to sell memorable “moments” if they’re not overly repeatable. Ramiz Brahimaj has been running scorching hot for the past couple of years.

Brahimaj’s improvement training in Chicago with Belal Muhammad was no total coincidence, but it’s important to keep context in mind. His last three foes have an 8-10 combined UFC record, and one of the wins — a first-round (T)KO of Mickey Gall — doesn’t seem to have any staying power for the submission specialist that hasn’t KO’d anyone else.

It wasn’t even two years ago that a fading Themba Gorimbo (4-3 UFC) pitched a shutout of Brahimaj despite submission defense woes of his own. That’s the concern opposite Punahele Soriano, who has become a takedown and top control ace at 170 pounds. Soriano is 3-0 in the weight class with nine total takedowns since dropping down, posting an absurd +170 striking differential along the way.

Drama in this bout, though, comes from Soriano’s last loss at middleweight where Dustin Stoltzfus jumped his back and squeezed him out. The Hawaiian isn’t a jiu-jitsu specialist as much as a wrestler, which means he’ll be swimming in shark-infested waters opposite Brahimaj.

I retooled my model in the off week, and I love its verdict here. Soriano probably maintains plenty of top control with ground-and-pound upside if he’s winning, but that Brahimaj squeeze has proven to be no joke.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I see this model result as a “position or submission” outcome for two welterweights who have historically grappled to success. But, Soriano’s standup is also better. I played his moneyline (+110) and will add the decision prop (+260).

Nora Cornolle vs. Joselyne Edwards

Women’s Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Cornolle	29.87%	9.15%	4.62%	4.53%	20.72%
Edwards	70.13%	19.06%	5.92%	13.14%	51.08%

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It’s time to start having uncomfortable conversations about Joselyne Edwards in a bantamweight division that will be without Kayla Harrison and Amanda Nunes due to age in short order.

Edwards has grown up in UFC since her 24-year-old athletic frame made its debut in 2021, and she’s really started to make impressive, aggressive statements with three straight wins via finish over Tamires Vidal, Chelsea Chandler, and Priscilla Cachoeira — handing the latter the first (T)KO loss of her career. Early, the Panamanian struggled with takedown defense (61%), and that might still be a hole she needs to patch to contend in the division’s top five. Nora Cornolle doesn’t present that sort of threat, though.

The French striker has landed just one of her nine total career takedown attempts, showing a lack of volume and skill. On the feet, Cornolle’s +0.00 SSR isn’t exactly shining, either. We saw that in lackluster decision losses to both Karol Rosa and Jacqueline Cavalcanti.

These women fought in 2023 in France with hometown judges awarding a tight, baffling decision on a loose interpretation of “damage” when Edwards scored 8:42 in control time. At UFC Houston, Edwards (+1.45 SSR) should try her hand at distance given the 36-year-old Cornolle seems to have lost a bit of speed and danger as she’s aged since their first matchup. But, the takedowns should be available, too.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I like my model’s sprinkle at Edwards’ submission prop (+750) and played in Wednesday. Cornolle is a striker by trade, and Edwards jiu-jitsu improvement has been monumental in recent trips to the cage.

Alden Coria vs. Luis Gurule

Flyweight (125 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Coria	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Gurule	Eligible

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The flyweight division is so loaded with talent that I’m sure stories like Alden Coria exist elsewhere, too.

Coria demolished Alessandro Costa (3-3 UFC), a favorite of my model’s, on short notice at Noche UFC last fall, and the 5’8″ fighter’s size at flyweight is a problem for the rest of the division. It’s hard not to overreact to the Mexican’s +2.78 SSR when it should only improve with a proper camp and, arguably, stepping down in competition here to Luis Gurule.

Gurule is a grinder from Factory X Muay Thai in Denver, fighting with the same high-volume, kick-heavy style for which the gym is well-known. He pulled a mammoth upset over wrestling prodigy Nick Piccininni on DWCS, but that’s proven to say more about Piccininni than anything. The veteran was flattened by Ode Osbourne via (T)KO and mopped at distance by Jesus Aguilar — yes, the guy with the shortest reach in the division — for a -20 striking differential in September.

At this stage, Gurule looks like a patented DWCS whiff. With the chin issues of concern, he’s also posted a mediocre +0.40 SSR against bad striking competition and offers no grappling upside despite never having been subbed as a pro. The well-rounded Coria can exploit Gurule’s takedown D (56%) or test his chin.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: If you didn’t get Coria’s ITD prop at +210 from our show, it’s now +175. That’s such a great number when Gurule’s record of having never been submitted is largely due to his opponents’ gameplan. Plus, the underdog has shown a chin liability.

Ode Osbourne vs. Alibi Idiris

Flyweight (125 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Osbourne	Eligible
Idiris	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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Alibi Idiris was a reminder that backing debuting fighters with hefty moneylines can result in paying the ultimate price.

The Kazak fighter closed in -500 territory both via his country of origin and fan-friendly style on TUF, but he failed to separate in any meaningful way on the feet from Joseph Morales before getting triangle choked in top position by the grappling specialist. Morales’ quick win over Matt Schnell provides some hope for Idiris’ UFC future, though.

At UFC Houston, he’ll draw Ode Osbourne, who has become a gatekeeper of sorts on the edge of this 125-pound roster. Osbourne has fought Manel Kape, Steve Erceg, Charles Johnson, Asu Almabayev, and other top-10 contenders, but excluding a split decision against Johnson, his other four UFC triumphs have come against fighters a combined 4-14 with the promotion.

Osbourne’s grappling improvements were on display to survive opposite Erceg in his last fight compared to blowout submission losses against Almabayev and Jafel Filho, and he’s the longer, more powerful, and more experienced striker opposite Idiris. Just keep in mind the lapses in concentration and mistakes that have bit “The Jamaican Sensation” most of his career.

I’d grade this fight a pick ’em. With no certainty Idiris is a UFC-caliber fighter, Osbourne could show that he’s really refined his craft at 33. On the other hand, I’m not really rushing to back the inconsistent Osbourne if oddsmakers seem to believe that Idiris’ performance had something to do with jitters.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I’m going to trust my gut and pick Osbourne here. His length, speed, power, and grappling improvements are all pluses when I literally can’t name one from Idiris’ small sample. I think I’m trending toward betting him around +110.

Chidi Njokuani vs. Carlos Leal

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Njokuani	Eligible
Leal	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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It was always going to be a shame to see which veteran lost from Chidi Njokuani‘s last fight with Jake Matthews, ending that person’s chance of any sort of real run at 170 pounds.

Due to a quick back take, it was indeed “Chidi Bang Bang”. Grappling woes aren’t a new thing for the 37-year-old specialist in Muay Thai, but it did show that he really hasn’t improved a ton dropping down in weight after most of his career coming at 185. Matchmakers were generous with simplistic matchups against Rhys McKee, Jared Gooden, and an aging Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos before the Matthews draw.

It’s fascinating to see yet another pivotal fight with a fellow vet in his bracket at UFC Houston. Carlos Leal turned from a dark horse to the roster bubble with one punch against Muslim Salikhov that didn’t go his way. A loss to Njokuani would mark a 1-3 UFC record despite a +1.96 SSR that largely was padded through a mauling of Alex Morono.

We’ve yet to really see Leal wrestle in UFC in his matchups, and Njokuani (73% takedown D) has great entry-level defense. It’s once you get him down where he tends to flounder. This is another tough-to-call matchup where Leal, at six years younger, is presumably the faster guy with more power in his hands, but Njokuani is a master of distance with great clinch work and kicks.

I see this line as pretty appropriate given just the slightest amount of distrust I have in Njokuani’s aging chin, but he might look like a great bet should this fight see all 15 minutes.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: This betting number seems right about dead on where it’s settled with Leal around -125. His forward pressure is exactly the type of cage that you want to keep Njokuani inside. However, the betting opportunity in this fight is a clear over between veterans on the roster bubble. It’s -125 to start Round 2 and +440 (!) to go the distance.

Zach Reese vs. Michel Pereira

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Reese	53.25%	33.49%	16.11%	17.38%	19.76%
Pereira	46.75%	17.33%	7.33%	10.00%	29.42%

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I almost don’t even want to model Michel Pereira. There’s no fighter in UFC more volatile and harder to predict.

“Demolidor” has always had remarkable skills in all areas, but a goofy personality has sort of translated to this uber-talented guy that will have highlighted moments of brilliance juxtaposed with sloppy, unbuttoned results like being out of gas in five minutes against Anthony Hernandez, Abus Magomedov, and others. A first-round (T)KO loss to Kyle Daukaus also shows that his hallmark durability at welterweight might not have come with him to this new weight class.

UFC wants a violent result here in a matchup with Zach Reese. Reese was designed in a lab to be an action-packed prelim fighter with unreal physical tools like a 6’4″ height, 77″ reach, elite power, and great jiu-jitsu. The problem has been chaining those skills together and avoiding damage (39%) in the process.

This is one of those matchups that’s somewhat laughable to predict because any result early or late would have validity in hindsight because of Pereira’s volatility and Reese’s inexperience. However, this puppy is happening two hours from Reese’s hometown in Shriner, and he’s being given the red corner as the larger fighter with less attrition. Reese has also had more success at middleweight in extended fights.

All of that stuff is pretty appealing as this line has drifted toward the Brazilian all week.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Rolling with my model on this one. It’s hard to envision a particular advantage Reese has from a skill perspective, but if this turns into a drunken bar fight, he’s the larger, more athletic guy, and he’s actually been the one winning on the cards at middleweight. I won’t get cute with (T)KO or sub personally.

Jacobe Smith vs. Josiah Harrell

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Smith	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Harrell	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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Jacobe Smith is on that patented DWCS hype train, where the final destination usually ending in a “fraud check” for most passengers. Is this an unexpectedly early stop?

There’s really no doubting the explosive athleticism of the wrestler. “Cobe” bludgeoned his DWCS foe with seven takedowns and plenty of elbows before UFC stoppages of Preston Parsons and Niko Price — neither of which has aged particularly well. I’m also perpetually wary of the Fortis MMA product with so many recent disappointments from the gym.

Statistically, I can’t argue against Smith’s +3.35 SSR or landing 7.42 takedowns per 15 minutes. It’s just a matter of if Josiah Harrell is indeed the massive step-up in competition that oddsmakers are projecting.

Harrell’s story is a cool one. He was originally a last-minute draw for Jack Della Maddalena in 2023 before a pre-fight physical revealed a brain condition, which likely saved his life. Now having made a full recovery, Harrell has won four in a row in the regional scene, including his first LFA bout, to move to 11-0 as a pro.

The odds in Smith’s favor only being -290 is eerily reminiscent of Malcolm Wellmaker, who seemed like he should command double the price gearing up for a short-notice foe, against Ethan Ewing. We saw how that turned out. Similar to Wellmaker, I just don’t value much of anything Smith has done in the octagon against two bad opponents.

“Cobe” is probably the better athlete, but Smith’s path through Fury FC was a breeze, and we’ve yet to see the 29-year-old in deep waters. If it gets there, I don’t think you’re going to want a ticket behind him when his style exerts so much energy.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Ultimately, the same voice in my head that told me to not trust Wellmaker is back for Jacobe Smith. Harrell is a solid prospect with great balance and just has a certain grit to him. Once we hit the seven-minute mark or so, it’ll be the underdog’s fight to lose.

Serghei Spivac vs. Ante Delija

Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Spivac	Eligible
Delija	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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You know that meme of the sock puppet looking away? Is that Serghei Spivac seeing Jailton Almeida get the boot after two losses just for grappling at heavyweight?

“The Polar Bear” has certainly used his grappling to produce highlights against Derrick Lewis, Augusto Sakai, and others, but he’s shown either an inability or unwillingness to use it in lopsided losses to Ciryl Gane and Waldo Cortes-Acosta inside the top 10. Getting submitted by Almeida wasn’t great, either.

This is an interesting matchup at UFC Houston against Ante Delija for him. Delija hasn’t faced a takedown in UFC yet, but he also hasn’t been submitted as a pro — including a lengthy stint in PFL — since 2014. The training partner of Tom Aspinall is probably a plus defensive grappler by the division’s standard, and that could spell trouble for Spivac when, otherwise, the Croatian was an officiating meltdown from two straight first-round KOs inside the octagon.

It’s a bit surprising that the younger Spivac wasn’t handed a friendlier matchup, but the UFC’s thoughts on heavyweight grappling have been announced. Instead, Delija — who can be fragile — got this favorable draw of a fighter, Spivac, that has never dropped an opponent with a knockdown in 14 UFC fights.

Spivac has been blown out in any ranked fight that took place at distance, and he doesn’t have one-punch power to make up for it, either. Keeping this at striking range for a majority of the fight seems like an obtainable goal for “Walking Trouble” as a slight favorite.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Spivac’s concerning box score results against Cortes-Acosta and Gane lead me to believe that, if Delija is able to keep his distance, he’ll win the fight. I love overs in this fight; Delija went to the cards in 5 of his 11 PFL fights yet hasn’t been outside Round 1 in UFC.

Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa

Featherweight (145 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Ige	34.80%	17.43%	10.71%	6.72%	17.37%
Costa	65.20%	28.19%	6.80%	21.39%	37.01%

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Neal	49.42%	25.76%	15.87%	9.89%	23.66%
Medic	50.58%	27.33%	25.11%	2.22%	23.25%

It’s tough to see your heroes get old. I was a “Handz of Steel Fan Club” card-carrying member for years, but the Carlos Prates fight led to me cancelling my subscription.

The Prates loss alone wasn’t a bad one, but it was yet a third straight underwhelming trip to the cage opposite fighters in their prime. At this point, Geoff Neal‘s last three wins are Rafael dos Anjos, Vicente Luque, and Santiago Ponzinibbio — three names that have aged like milk on a 170-pound resume.

Ever since Neal’s trip to the ICU with heart issues in 2020, I just don’t think we’ve ever quite seen the same top-10 fighter. It doesn’t help that he’s battled weight issues and remained loyal to Fortis MMA — perhaps the sport’s worst major gym. The one thing I counted on was Neal’s iron chin, but he was rocked several times by Prates entering this UFC Houston bout opposite the highest knockdown rate (KD%) among active UFC welterweights with at least five completed bouts.

That’s Uros Medic, whose 3.83 KD% is out of a video game. Medic is a striking specialist from Serbia who has never seen the scorecards as a pro, landing 5.53 significant strikes per minute with insane accuracy (60%). Medic just really can’t grapple at all, which was discovered in losses to Myktybek Orolbai and Jalin Turner. Plus, Puna Soriano found his chin three fights ago.

Neal absolutely could show levels here by way of checking Medic’s chin or committing his wrestling for the first time in six fights, landing just two “trip” takedowns in this period. However, I just don’t think the aging fighter is trending in the right direction to now switch up what has historically been his gameplan of boxing from the pocket.

And, if the fight looks like that, there’s a good chance this is yet another successful procedure for “The Doctor”. Just don’t be surprised if it’s a lengthier fight should both guys survive each other’s shots when fresh.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I actually think this fight could be longer than many anticipate if Neal wrestles as I believe he will. Medic is lightning quick, but his lapses in durability are also concerning. I am going to play Medic & Starts Round 2 (+325) for minimal liability.

It’s jaw-dropping to me that Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez has successfully rolled the dice for years with what is an obviously limited skillset. There is no one like him, and my model is clearly starting to buy in, too.

Hernandez’s flaccid frame at middleweight is concerning at first glance. He seems like having no shot from the face-offs but routinely uses his elite cardio, chain wrestling, and great submission instincts to constantly wear down and beat up middleweights. The amount of grown men just gasping for air less than five minutes into a “Fluffy” fight is always a unique scene, and he’s continually rewarded bettors like my co-host that blindly bet late-round props.

Though beating Brendan Allen twice is no small feat, the UFC hasn’t really pushed Hernandez into its championship picture before this fight at UFC Houston. It’s a lot of Roman Dolidze, Roman Kopylov, Michel Pereira, Edmen Shahbazyan, and others who have shown warts on multiple occasions. Mauling and outgrappling Sean Strickland would make him the no-doubt choice to face Khamzat Chimaev next.

Strickland, allegedly, is one of the best anti-grapplers in the sport from Xtreme Couture. He allowed less than 2:30 in control time across two full fights with Dricus du Plessis’ above-average wrestling. The polarizing, loud-mouthed 185er is also one of the sport’s most noted grinders in terms of sparring and cardio, and he’s seen a full 25 minutes eight separate times in the octagon.

I didn’t even mention Strickland’s elite head defense because Hernandez offers so little as a striking threat. Really, this fight comes down to Strickland’s cardio and anti-grappling. If he’s able to keep this fight at distance for over 20 minutes like the du Plessis bout, “Fluffy” has historically terrible reactions to body shots (like teep kicks) and a poor 49% striking defense.

Though my model is a believer of sorts, it still says this line is wide, and Hernandez has just run so hot. He’s a stock seconds from crashing. I think the responsible bet here on the moneyline is Strickland, but Hernandez’s submission odds are also quite long given how easily he’s melted everyone to this point.