UFC London Betting Primer: Fight Predictions, Props, and Model Results for Evloev vs. Murphy

There are two themes for the latest trip across the pond at UFC London. First, we’ve got five debuting fighters on the card. Second, we’ve got a badass featherweight main event that will determine who faces Alexander Volkanovski this fall. Let’s go!

If you’re new here, this is my betting primer. I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’m going to be right; I just want to get it right, and I’ll give you my best effort every week.

I invite you to join the fan club of Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed it or would rather read, I’ve got you.

From a betting perspective, let’s preview UFC London: Evloev vs. Murphy, taking place at the O2 Arena in London, England on Saturday. The fights start at 1:00 p.m. EST.

UFC London: Evloev vs. Murphy Betting Picks and Props

 

Shanelle Dyer vs. Ravena Oliveira

Women’s Strawweight (115 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Dyer	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Oliveira	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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Though Shanelle Dyer‘s bid on Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) didn’t go as planned, she hasn’t lost support in Vegas.

Dyer was a -200ish favorite over Carol Foro, but the Brazilian underdog dropped her three times and, largely, dominated a unanimous decision. The fact that Dana took the Englishwoman spoke to the inevitability of planning to get her long, crafty striking array in the UFC after a 3-0 stint with PFL’s European circuit.

A debut on home soil shows more favoritism from the promotion — as is a must-win matchup against Ravena Oliveira. Oliveira lost to Tainara Lisboa on short notice at 135 pounds and returned over 700 days later as a strawweight…just to get dominated again and submitted by Stephanie Luciano.

For what Oliveira gained in size, she also likely is at a skill deficit to most 115ers in a significantly more competitive division. That’s the case against the kicks and combinations of Dyer; Oliveira has landed just 29% of her significant strikes already against fighters that are a combined 2-3 against all others.

This line has ballooned to crazy levels for a fighter that was dominated on DWCS, but Oliveira simply hasn’t shown any notable skills for nearly 30 octagon minutes.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Dyer positioned as a prohibitive favorite after an underwhelming debut effort sort of gives away the final outcome here. I think she’s a UFC-level strawweight, and Oliveira isn’t. I like Dyer’s -3.5 point spread (-160) for domination or a finish.

Shem Rock vs. Abdul-Kareem Al Selwady

Lightweight (155 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Rock	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Al Selwady	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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Tajikstan’s Nurullo Aliev got an extremely favorable matchup against a debuting Shem Rock last fall in Qatar. The UFC seems to have turned the tables for the Englishman here.

Rock’s mediocre striking and history of optional takedown defense were a disastrous toolkit against the wrestling technician, but the OKTAGON vet is a regional folk hero in the U.K. for a reason. He’s 9-0 with a nasty submission arsenal, which is a trademark of the Liverpool gym that birthed him, Luke Riley, Paddy Pimblett, and others. For a grappler, Rock’s -0.47 SSR against an undefeated prospect wasn’t exactly unworkable.

At UFC London, he’ll draw Abdul-Kareem Al Selwady. The Fortis MMA product has made just one start since a 2023 win on DWCS, and it was a third-round knockout loss to Loik Radzhabov (2-2 UFC).

Al Selwady has never been submitted as a pro, which is never a good start for arguing that Rock can win. However, Aliev was a significantly tougher first test than Radzhabov, and the performances weren’t comparable. Rock actually defended 59% of the distance strikes thrown his way, which was excellent.

This is just not a side about which I’ll be able to stay particularly objective. Al Selwady is an inactive, underperforming DWCS alum whose win on the show has aged worse, and he flies the flag of my least favorite gym in the sport. Fortis is 0-4 in UFC this year with Sam Hughes’ loss last week.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Rock’s poor striking defense gets a ton of hate from “film bro” bettors, but it is valid. I like violence here, since Al Selwady is also an unreliable commodity whose grappling has been poor. Don’t rule out the best moment of Shem’s UFC career coming on Saturday via choke.

Louie Sutherland vs. Brando Pericic

Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Southerland	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Pericic	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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Rock ‘Em, Sock ‘Em Robots time!

I do love it when UFC throws a slobberknocker onto the card for fun. Louie Sutherland and Brando Pericic are in a fight priced at -195 to end by knockout, which makes it sort of interesting that the Australian is such a heavy favorite when both have power.

MMA bettors can’t forget what’s been in front of them, so Pericic’s first-round knockout in Perth against Elisha Ellison, who entered with an iffy regional background, was the highlight. Sutherland’s first-round loss to Valter Walker’s patented heel hook was the lowlight. Diagnosing this line might be as simple as that.

In a fight like this, I actually think it’s extraordinarily important that Sutherland will walk with a U.K. cheer. Emotion sort of takes over when these guys are both regional brawlers, yet it’s actually the Scottish fighter who went to a decision in PFL and competed twice in Bellator. Getting matched with Walker in the first place — plus the red corner here — is a show of strength on its own.

This fight is as ‘dog or pass as it gets. There is no Pericic outcome other than a brutal beatdown of a decision that would justify him as a -265 favorite. The early bonk is more than priced into the line.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: The definitive love for Pericic here seems absolutely crazy. Sutherland is an experienced veteran who can survive storms, and his forward pressure is more than capable of creating one early. I just can’t see a world where Sutherland doesn’t have his moments at +220.

Mantas Kondratavicius vs. Antonio Trocoli

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Kondratavicius	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Trocoli	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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This moneyline asks what the price should be to blindly fade Antonio Trocoli.

It’s a death knell to Mantas Kondratavicius‘ UFC career if he’s not able to dispatch Trocoli — and likely inside the distance. The Brazilian underdog, best known as Mackenzie Dern’s beau, is 0-3 in the UFC with all losses coming via finish. For a submission specialist, getting stuck in consecutive guillotine chokes isn’t ideal.

Kondratavicius won a main event on DWCS this past season over Djani Barbir as a slight ‘dog, finding the knockout blow in just 66 seconds. The former kickboxer is long (76″ reach) and fast for the division, but I suppose questions about his grappling prowess still remain, as his only pro loss in nine fights was via rear-naked choke.

Trocoli’s 24% striking defense speaks for itself. It’s the worst at middleweight of any fighter with three-plus appearances. He’s going to get pieced up at distance here, and though we’ve yet to see him lose by a flash KO, it wouldn’t be overly surprising.

I’m not leaping to parlay the Lithuanian’s lofty moneyline, but he’s a quality win pick at UFC London for good reason. Recently, I mentioned how sticky those perpetual bad habits tend to be with Jose Medina and Cody Brundage in a multi-fight sample, and Trocoli’s poor striking, poor wrestling, and increasingly suspect ability to fight through submission attempts don’t exactly argue for a career turnaround.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: This is my favorite five-minute sweat of the week, pairing Kondratavicius’ moneyline and Fight Starts Round 2 (+155). Mantas is basically a total unknown off DWCS, and Trocoli has shown good durability taking punches, having just found the door quickly with tapout losses. I can’t possibly say the Lithuanian will bring that threat at a UFC level.

Mario Pinto vs. Felipe Franco

Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Pinto	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Franco	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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Mario Pinto‘s prospect ranking skyrocketed for me after taking the right gameplan with the right skills in his last fight.

Pinto dispatched Jhonata Diniz within 10 minutes using a ground game we had never seen in regional or UFC-affiliated settings. That’s exactly what he needed against the elite kickboxer — especially after the Portuguese prospect was dropped by Austan Lane in his debut.

This was going to be a brutal test for Pinto against Mick Parkin on Parkin’s home soil, but with the Englishman sustaining an injury, he draws Felipe Franco on short notice. Franco was the single most disappointing prospect on Season 9 of DWCS after losing to Freddy Vidal in a fight where both men went unsigned from an exhausted, ugly slopfest. He closed in the -500 range against Vidal, which looked even worse when Freddy went out in Round 1 in a second-chance opportunity.

Franco was nearly finished from half guard by Vidal in Round 2, and we just saw Pinto finish the job against a multi-time UFC winner. Add in the favorite’s expect advantage at distance over Franco’s -0.61 SSR, and this is one of the most lopsided matchups of 2026 so far.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: In general, I see Pinto as a heavyweight down on power. Exhaustion got the better of Franco on DWCS, so a more tepid gameplan could also play into a longer fight. I don’t mind a sprinkle at the favorite’s decision prop (+600) on the basis of this being one of those weird short-notice fights where neither guy gets comfortable, but everything else is unplayable.

Nathaniel Wood vs. Losene Keita

Featherweight (145 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Wood	Eligible
Keita	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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“Chin” is the marquee factor in this fight between England’s Nathaniel Wood and Belgium’s Losene Keita.

Always a bit undersized for featherweight, Wood has been dropped twice in his last five fights by a pair of fighters we saw last week: Jose Delgado and Andre Fili. Both have considerably less power than Keita, a bomber who knocked out 7 of his 10 foes in OKTAGON, and that’s why I’m deeply concerned Wood’s chin finally gives way this weekend.

Otherwise, on paper, “The Prospect” has no true flaws. His striking accuracy (52%) and defense (54%) are both solid. He’s an efficient wrestler, per a 50% takedown accuracy and 73% defense. He hasn’t been submitted since February 2015 or since entering the UFC. He’s just lost the physicality battle in spots to Muhammad Naimov and Casey Kenney, and Keita is a powerhouse.

This is an interesting spot. I just can’t ignore Keita’s power, and I have a feeling Wood will be a popular underdog after opening around +140 against Morgan Charriere, closing around +140 against Delgado, and winning both fights. But infinite money glitches like “Wood as an underdog” don’t really exist in sports betting, worrying me that Wood’s worst quality is finally his undoing.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: This wide moneyline suggests that Wood’s recent issues taking punches could bite him against a high-octane, experienced puncher. The only way Keita covers his number is by sparking Wood, so that’s what I’m playing. A knockout in Round 1 (+500) or Round 2 (+700) for Keita is weirdly priced evenly.

Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola

Lightweight (155 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Jones	Eligible
Sola	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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Rhys McKee went 1-5 in UFC. Axel Sola‘s legitimate test at lightweight starts now.

It is good news for Sola that he was able to best the Northern Ireland native in all phases in Paris. He posted a flat +1.00 SSR and added a takedown in a third-round knockout win via a well-timed liver shot. The competition gets tougher against Wales’ Mason Jones this weekend, though.

I’ve long considered Jones a dark horse in this division, and he was another of these premature UFC cuts just because of losses to Ludovit Klein and Mike “Beast Boy” Davis in his early 20s. Jones is still just 30 after returning with dominant wins over Jeremy Stephens and Bolaji Oki, the latter of which represented his first win by stoppage.

Though it was in June 2024, Sola was put in some precarious grappling positions by Nassourdine Imavov’s brother, Daguir, in Ares FC. That fight ended in a draw, but it was at a sub-UFC level of competition, and McKee never posed that kind of threat. Jones is also a better striker than McKee, considering that the fight was close headed to Round 3.

In a near pick ’em on Monday, the UFC veteran has a lot of tools to answer questions about Sola. We know who Mason Jones is. I don’t think I’ve seen anything from the Frenchman that’ll feel like a missed opportunity at minus money.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Sola’s issues grappling with a smaller foe in Imavov also check out with the historical weakness of French fighters — especially from his gym. I think Jones can get his takedowns going here if he chooses, but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if the Welsh fighter has to overcome early adversity he created by brawling instead.

Kurtis Campbell vs. Danny Silva

Featherweight (145 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Campbell	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Silva	Eligible

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In the same way that Jean Silva’s rise expedited Kevin Vallejos’ career, Vallejos might do the same for Danny Silva if Silva can get past Kurtis Campbell in a road game.

“El Puma” went to a decision with Vallejos and posted a competitive -21 striking differential against one of the hottest prospects in the sport. Otherwise, the American dispatched Josh Culibao and Lucas Almeida via split decision. I’ve rarely seen a fighter with elite striking defense (61%) that has also absorbed 7.61 significant strikes per minute, meaning Silva’s competition has just brought an insane pace to every fight.

It’s really interesting that he’s getting another hyped prospect at UFC London. At 23, Campbell is unbeaten in eight pro fights but hasn’t fought in top European promotions like Cage Warriors or OKTAGON to really test his might. Instead, he knocked out Demba Seck in 80 seconds on Season 9 of DWCS, and there’s a likability to “The Pink Panther” and his extremely British appearance that screams he’s a budding star if he can back it up.

Of all the top prospects favored on this card, Campbell is — by far — the shakiest. Youth, inexperience, and level of competition work against what is an elite highlight package. Silva is the exact opposite, fighting to decisions against multi-time UFC winners.

If this fight was a pick ’em, I’d have a brutal decision. But, it’s easily an underdog pick at these odds.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Danny Silva lives in tight fights. His split decision prop (+1200) is a no-brainer here, and his +3.5 point spread (-125) is surprisingly playable depending on your source. I prefer the latter in case Campbell’s horrific regional competition makes it pretty clear he’s not ready for this level of featherweight quite yet.

Roman Dolidze vs. Christian Leroy Duncan

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Dolidze	36.49%	13.15%	5.30%	7.85%	23.34%
Duncan	63.51%	17.18%	15.06%	2.13%	46.33%

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I was amazed to find a betting angle in this fight after modeling it on Sunday.

Roman Dolidze is just one of those fighters who will get asterisks next to his wins and “I told you so” responses to his losses. I’ve compared his style to that of a grizzly bear, where it’s not overly technical, but he’s a mauling grappler with huge power and submission skills (0.8 attempts per 15 minutes) — from which I’m surprised a submission result has never come.

He’s never been finished in a three-round fight, and despite Christian Leroy Duncan‘s recent knockout binge, we have to remember the Englishman’s last foray into the rankings — a decision loss to Gregory Rodrigues. Heck, he even failed to get Andrey Pulyaev out of there. It’s now-retired Eryk Anders and unproven Marco Tulio who positioned Duncan’s knockout streak at two entering this bout.

In his prime, “CLD” is the more technical, fast, and intentional striker. His takedown D (69%) has been hit-or-miss, but surviving 15 minutes with Rodrigues was a strong showing for his defense. Even with some lapses in wrestling, he’ll likely get a friendly decision in his home country. That’s not worth a -470 moneyline, but the totals and decision props here are surprisingly playable.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: The disrespect of Dolidze fueled this total. Tulio and Anders have significant defensive or durability concerns, but Roman has neither. Though CLD is the sharper, quicker guy that should get the nod, this fight to go the distance (-135) is the best play in case Dolidze replicates Robocop’s gameplan.

Iwo Baraniewski vs. Austen Lane

Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Baraniewski	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Lane	Eligible

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Natural thinking would be that a fighter getting in peak shape would help their UFC career, but it’s not the case for heavyweights.

There’s a massive skill deficit between 205 pounds and that division, where grappling is optional, cardio is rare, and combinations barely exist. That’s why Austen Lane might actually put forth one of his worst efforts when dropping down to 205 pounds, as Tanner Boser, Caio Machado, and others have historically done.

Lane’s +0.51 SSR is significantly better than most give him credit for, but four losses via finish in five completed starts tell the story. The former Jacksonville Jaguar just isn’t overly dangerous and has had a tough time moving his head (40% striking D) entering this matchup with rising 205-pound knockout artist Iwo Baraniewski.

Baraniewski’s -3.30 SSR represents perhaps the ugliest 2-0 in UFC history. He pulled a mammoth upset against Mahamad Aly on DWCS, and a bar fight with Ibo Aslan that featured three knockdowns in under 90 seconds went his way, too. I don’t think Baraniewski is special, but he’s shown durability and calmness in a firefight. What we haven’t seen yet are the regional submission skills that earned him a date with Aly.

After Vitor Petrino quickly tapped Lane, I think the Polish fighter might have that up his sleeve, but there’s also Lane’s significant weight cut potentially meeting a right hand that has scored two vicious finishes so far. An upset of Baraniewski at UFC London would be as notable as a fraud check gets; Lane is an established non-UFC-level fighter.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: With everyone gravitating toward the quick bonk, I like a contrarian pivot to Lane wrestling himself into danger with Baraniewski’s submission prop (+480). I tend to lean on the big numbers in matchups like this where Iwo can really pick his poison.

Michael “Venom” Page vs. Sam Patterson

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Page	55.90%	16.79%	14.39%	2.40%	39.11%
Patterson	44.10%	31.35%	9.06%	22.29%	12.76%

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An analytical model can’t really encapsulate the unique qualities of Michael “Venom” Page, but it’s not just the model that thinks Sam Patterson is a live ‘dog in this bout. He’s taken money all week.

When it comes to the practicality of winning UFC fights, Page just doesn’t have many levers to pull. He’s yet to score a knockdown and has attempted just 3.98 significant strikes per minute — even if the striking accuracy (60%) and defense (57%) numbers are both elite. For instance, Patterson is a grappler who has attempted 9.05. It’s an insanely low level of output.

Plus, Page is now 38 years old and making his first cut to welterweight since a 2024 loss to Ian Machado Garry. His usual reach advantage will be just an inch against a lanky, 6’3″ fellow countryman.

Patterson is 4-0 since moving to welterweight after an early KO against Yanal Ashmouz made him realize that practically killing himself to make 155 pounds was going to be too much of a compromise. His best work has come as a grappler, landing both takedown attempts he’s authored so far and averaging 2.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

This is an awkward fight to handicap because we haven’t seen any resistance to Patterson’s wrestling, and the veteran (66% takedown D) will provide some with a notoriously tough-to-find head. However, Page’s style, predicated on speed, is a declining stock that will have an expiration date. It has to.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: My co-host called this the “trap line” of the week…and fell for it anyway. Patterson’s speed, improved boxing, and submission danger are real, and he’s a former training partner of Page. My model’s result checks out with an evolving case for the young, lengthy English underdog to win a career-defining bout.

Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell Jr.

Featherweight (145 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Riley	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Aswell Jr.	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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UFC apparently loves itself a good bowlcut. Luke Riley nabbing the co-main event slot in his second fight is an attempt to build a star, and we’ll see if he can capitalize.

Many of Riley’s fights look the same. He’s an outstanding, fast kickboxer with all the potential in the world at distance, and opponents try — and have succeeded — in taking him down. Bogdan Grad landed four takedowns and 3:55 in control time to win Round 1 against Riley, and the Englishman responded with a swift Round 2 knockout.

Grad was Michael Aswell Jr.‘s opponent on DWCS as well. “The Texas Kid” had a +53 striking differential and defended 4 of the 7 takedown attempts he’s faced. The Houston boxer, a teammate of Joshua Van, then responded with a vicious knockout of Lucas Almeida last fall in Brazil, though Almeida wasn’t at 100% in that fight.

Aswell won’t get points for having better takedown defense in this matchup of strikers, and at this point, Riley seems like the cleaner prospect. He defended 80% of Grad’s distance strikes compared to Aswell at 53%. This matchup will ultimately come down to speed, power, and variance of weapons, and it’s pretty easy to favor Riley in those areas — even if the American’s fervent pace and quality chin will keep him in the fight.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Aswell’s volume is tough to overcome, but judges should see Riley’s moments through rose-colored glasses with the crowd going bananas. I think the Englishman gets a favorable nod on the cards, but Aswell Jr.’s level of competition is so poor that a lopsided loss would not be surprising. The over (-125 to go the distance) is surprisingly playable.

Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy

Five-Round Main Event — Featherweight (145 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Evloev	53.55%	6.94%	0.63%	6.30%	46.62%
Murphy	46.45%	15.00%	6.32%	8.68%	31.45%

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I don’t think we’ve ever had a high-stakes fight that was easier to call early. Movsar Evloev is going to be able to take Lerone Murphy down by almost any stretch of the imagination.

Evloev, making his first appearance since 2024, is a skilled, accomplished wrestler (4.67 takedowns landed per 15) from American Top Team with a granite chin. I’ve never seen anything in a weight class of at least this size like the Russian’s 100% decision rate in UFC, though. Even against bums, Evloev offered very little submission danger or knockout power to go with his brute strength and top control.

Murphy’s 51% takedown defense was exploited by 40-year-old Josh Emmett and Aaron Pico, so he’s unlikely to dictate where this fight takes place until fatigue might set in for the favorite. Murphy, though, has been a full 25 minutes twice against Emmett and Edson Barboza. “The Miracle” has had a knack for the miraculous, with spins or knees that flattened Pico and Makwan Amirkhani in fights he was arguably losing.

MMA bettors are probably overrating Murphy’s chances of landing another “miracle”. It’s largely luck from a betting perspective. However, they’re probably underrating the Englishman’s chances of having prepared to sprawl, making Evloev work hard, and keep this fight at distance in deep waters when Murphy (+1.97 SSR) is the best analytical striker in the division this side of Volk.

I found it interesting that Matty said on our show that his connections at ATT believe Evloev doesn’t have an offensive submission game. That, in combination with lapses in defense against Diego Lopes in 2023, makes you wonder if the model’s identified submission threat from Murphy, a black belt, is legitimate. Even if that chance is small, all of these factors combined probably mean Murphy is undervalued to win, solely because the fight might look lopsided early.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Evloev just doesn’t cover his number. In strange ways, he’s in precarious moments, and there’s enough variance here to believe a quality fighter like Murphy can create them. In addition to Murphy’s moneyline (+200), I played the model’s late-round prop recommendations — and the tiniest of submission sprinkles.