UFC Macau DFS Projections: Significant Strikes and Takedown Props for Song vs. Figueiredo

Hello, Home of Fight fans. I’m trying something new.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Recently, I’ve added significant strike and takedown projections for Underdog and PrizePicks, as they’ve taken off in the MMA community. These are still in beta, but it’s something you can get for any fantasy sport in the world except UFC. I’m trying to change that.

As a reminder, my prelims betting primer is here on Home of Fight’s website on Fridays. My UFC main card breakdowns will be at PrizePicks Playbook on Saturdays. Matty and I’s YouTube show is also a fun time with a little of both.

From a DFS perspective, here are my projections of median significant strikes and takedowns for model-eligible fighters at UFC Macau: Song vs. Figueiredo, taking place at the Galaxy Arena in Cotai, Macau, China on Saturday. The fights start at 4:00 a.m. EST.

UFC Macau: Song vs. Figueiredo Significant Strike Projections

NOTE: Only fights with two model-eligible fighters are included. You wouldn’t want the garbage data from smaller samples anyway.

Fighter	Median Sig Strike Projection
Song Yadong	59.35
Luis Gurule	46.66
Zhang Mingyang	45.49
Deiveson Figueiredo	33.62
Alex Perez	33.31
Sumudaerji	31.08
Loma Lookboonmee	30.15
Alonzo Menifield	29.82
Jake Matthews	25.57
Carlston Harris	24.98
Jaqueline Amorim	21.26
Rei Tsuruya	17.35

Significant Strike Prop to Target in DFS

Song Yadong Under 81.5 Significant Strikes

It sort of makes sense that this is — by far — the most prominent significant strike prop on the board when the model is fading conventional wisdom around the main event in just about every way.

Yadong landed just 36 significant strikes in 12:54 of “neutral time” in his last fight with Sean O’Malley, and that was a matchup where his striking numbers really should have soared via jabs, kicks, and more. O’Malley pushes the pace. Deiveson Figueiredo, on the other hand, absorbs just 3.47 significant strikes per minute and tends to bog down the pace when he’s losing. Song has also wrestled more in recent fights, and the Brazilian’s takedown D (57%) is getting worse with each passing fight at 135 pounds.

There’s a pro-Song angle to this particular prop, too. My model has a finish at 27.5% likely, which isn’t nothing. I’m not sure Figgy, at 38, has the durability or willingness to fight through extreme adversity. We saw him revert to leg locks against Cory Sandhagen.

However, I do think Figueiredo is also significantly overlooked in this fight, potentially to secure a takedown or two, manage his distance, and compete. Yadong hasn’t faced anyone averaging north of 0.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes since 2018, and Figgy (1.2 attempts per 15) is voluminous with attempts of what are above-average front chokes if Yadong gets sloppy.

This projection (59.5) for Song encompasses all of that. Certainly, there’s a path to 110, 130, or 150 significant strikes in a lopsided decision. But, playing the averages, Figueiredo has the tools to muck this up if he’s also not the victim — or benefactor — of an early finish.

UFC Macau: Song vs. Figueiredo Takedown Projections

NOTE: Only fights with two model-eligible fighters are included. You wouldn’t want the garbage data from smaller samples anyway.

Fighter	Median Takedown Projection
Rei Tsuruya	4.77
Loma Lookboonmee	2.20
Jaqueline Amorim	1.59
Deiveson Figueiredo	1.40
Luis Gurule	1.21
Alex Perez	1.09
Song Yadong	0.82
Jake Matthews	0.78
Carlston Harris	0.75
Sumudaerji	0.36
Alonzo Menifield	0.23
Zhang Mingyang	0.00

Takedown Prop to Target in DFS

Rei Tsuruya Over 2.5 Takedowns

While Japan’s Rei Tsuruya might be a little overvalued to win his fight, there’s really no doubt about his strategy — nor a path to effectiveness.

Tsuruya has averaged a whopping 13.68 takedown attempts per 15 minutes across five starts in UFC or on Road to UFC in Asia. He’s a volume wrestler — if not an outright spammer — with painfully little to offer from his hands. There’s no doubt that, just like against Joshua Van, he’s going to be handily losing for every second he’s not in control of Luis Gurule.

Yet, Gurule’s 59% takedown defense provides an opening for success. The American lucked out that Daniel Barez, his opponent at Apex two weeks ago, was too old to wrestle consistently and faded down the stretch. Barez attempted just 3 takedowns despite absorbing a whopping 178 significant strikes. Tsuruya provided against Van, with 21 attempts, that he’s pretty relentless.

The champion’s anti-grappling is the best in the division. Tatsuro Taira is a better version of Tsuruya and couldn’t really crack the code. Gurule (1-3 UFC) is a regional journeyman who could definitely win on the cards despite surrendering takedowns, but the only obstacle to this prop is an early finish. Gurule hasn’t been submitted in 14 pro fights, which checks out, given his very good defensive gym (Factory X) behind him.

As the hefty projection implies, I think Tsuruya might top this line in Round 1 if Gurule can work his way up a couple of times.