UFC Mexico Betting Primer: Fight Predictions, Props, and Model Results

Amidst some dangerous circumstances at UFC Mexico, we’ll still have the country’s most illustrious fighter headlining a huge main event for his future title aspirations. Will Brandon Moreno defend home turf, or is England’s Lone’er Kavanagh a star in the making?

If you’re new here, this is my betting primer. I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for a half decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model that tries to find the answer using data for fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’m going to be right; I just want to get it right, and you’ll get my best effort every week.

I invite you to join the fan club of Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed it or would rather read on Friday at the office, I’ve got you.

From a betting perspective, let’s preview UFC Mexico: Moreno vs. Kavanagh, taking place at Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.

UFC Mexico Betting Picks and Props

 

Damian Pinas vs. Wes Schultz

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Pinas	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Schultz	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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Many Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) alums get a soft landing spot. Season 9 participants Damian Pinas and Wes Schultz will go toe-to-toe at 185 pounds fresh off the show at UFC Mexico.

The wide moneyline in Pinas’ favor is likely the (correct) statement that he’s the prospect with a higher ceiling. The 23-year-old native of Aruba is seemingly a prodigy from Andre Pederneiras’ gym that birthed Jose Aldo and several other top contenders at Nova Uniao, and he delivered on those expectations with a sub-two-minute KO during his audition.

At distance, Pinas probably destroys the grappling-heavy arsenal of Schultz, a long-time LFA veteran whose two losses are two UFC veterans, Dylan Budka and Mansur Abdul-Malik. The latter’s fast rise up the rankings earned Schultz a second bid on DWCS after the defeat, and “Party Time” delivered with a rare Suloev Stretch submission of Mario Mingaj.

To this point, Schultz’ chin has held well enough to believe he might be able to drag this fight into deep waters as the one of these two fighters to ever see the scorecards as a pro. Plus, Wes posted a +13 distance striking differential against Abdul-Malik before getting bullied in grappling exchanges, and that’s just not a likely advantage Pinas will have here.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: The total correlates with which fighter wins, so I’m playing Schultz and the corollary overs. I think there are too many unknowns about Pinas — who I like — to justify this number in his debut.

Erik Silva vs. Francis Marshall

Featherweight (145 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Silva	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Marshall	Eligible

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In a different timeline, Erik Silva might have been a multi-time UFC winner, but the odds seem stacked against him now.

The Venezuelan is now 0-2 in UFC and 38 years old after recovering from an ACL tear suffered against Muhammad Naimov in Round 1 of 2024’s trip to Mexico. Naimov and T.J. Brown both beat Silva and have combined for a 7-7 record against all others. Mediocre striking (40%) and takedown (62%) defense don’t inspire a ton of hope opposite an evolving wrestle-and-box specialist, Francis Marshall.

“Fire” has seen two split decisions go against him in UFC, and he was on the wrong side of a version of Isaac Dulgarian that tried to win. Therefore, you blink and the 26-year-old is on the roster bubble despite arguably toppling successful UFC fighters like William Gomis and Mairon Santos. He’s struggled finding a home for punches at distance, per a 33% striking accuracy.

Marshall, though, is UFC Mexico’s largest favorite at -700 odds. Typically, those positions are a statement of one fighter or the other. In this case, it’s Silva. From what we’ve seen, Marshall should be able to score takedowns (2.75 landed per 15 minutes) and top control at worst. Plus, this is likely the slowest version of the underdog yet.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Matty helped me realize the angle I liked best here. I think Silva’s standup is mediocre, and Marshall has dropped two UFC foes compared to recording a sub attempt against just once. I’ll play the early bonk for the favorite.

Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Regina Tarin

Women’s Flyweight (125 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Kareckaite	Eligible
Tarin	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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It’s definitely early for Regina Tarin‘s UFC debut, but don’t make the mistake of thinking she can’t win it.

The 21-year-old earned her first Combate Global win in 2024, and she’s scored three finishes inside 10 minutes facing some of Latin America’s toughest competition. Ironically enough, she was supposed to fight last season on DWCS, was forced to withdraw, and Sofia Montenegro took her place. Tarin now replaces Montenegro against Ernesta Kareckaite, proving time is indeed a flat circle.

Ernesta’s split decision over Carli Judice (3-0 UFC) has aged like wine in what I still call one of DWCS’s best fights ever. Kareckaite has subsequently won (over Nicolle Caliari) and lost (against Dione Barbosa) tight decisions in the big show. “Heavy-Handed” is a somewhat ironic nickname when Kareckaite’s volume, efficiency (+1.29 SSR), and takedown D (82%) are what has allowed her to compete in every fight. The precise problem has been a lack of pop in her shots.

While Kareckaite will enjoy experience and preparation advantages, she’s also a much lower level of prospect than Tarin. “Kill Bill” is someone seen as a potential future champ from Mexico, and Kareckaite’s ceiling has always seemed to be around the 10th spot in the rankings due to a lack of grappling upside and power.

At -186 odds, the Lithuanian’s tendency to operate in tight margins might bite her.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: It’s definitely the underdog or pass — which shocked me to uncover as a pro-Kareckaite guy historically. She just doesn’t separate to ever justify anything over a pick ’em price, and Tarin is a high-level prospect.

Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Javier Reyes

Featherweight (145 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Silva de Andrade	Eligible
Reyes	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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Of the squash matches on the card, this one feels particularly cruel. A 40-year-old Douglas Silva de Andrade will face Javier Reyes, who scored one of DWCS Season 9’s most violent finishing sequences.

The veteran, Silva de Andrade, will fight at featherweight for the first time since a 2021 loss to Lerone Murphy shortly after the COVID break. It reeks of either not being able to make the 135-pound cut anymore or just knowing he’s got no shot and taking the easiest check. As it stands, “D Silva” has fought just three times in the last four calendar years with a -0.39 striking success rate (SSR) overall from an up-and-down career.

Venezuela’s “Blair” Reyes fought just one UFC fighter, fellow DWCS alum Lerryan Douglas, on the regional scene and lost via second-round (T)KO, so this is no formality should it be proven that he just got a light draw on the auditional series.

Reyes definitely throws caution to the wind in pursuit of violence, so I will really have to think hard about him with future matchups. However, the aging former bantamweight probably doesn’t represent an above-average power threat for the durable 32-year-old, and both of Silva de Andrade’s pro submissions came in sloppy brawls. I think UFC knows he’s probably not winning that type of fight in 2026.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I think this price is a discount because the “film bros” don’t love Reyes’ tape. I agree that he isn’t the cleanest or most technical prospect, but he’d have badly messed up to lose to an aging, undersized Silva de Andrade here. 

Cristian Quinonez vs. Kris Moutinho

Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Quinonez	Eligible
Moutinho	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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There are two fighters on this card that are just automatic fades against anyone with a pulse of UFC ability. Kris Moutinho is one of them.

Donning lime green hair, Moutinho won over casual fans with a heroic, tough effort in which Sean O’Malley beat his face off to post a +160 striking differential in just under three rounds during their 2021 fight. The problem is Moutinho has since lost by consecutive first-round knockouts to Guido Cannetti and Malcolm Wellmaker — the latter of which came in this second UFC stint on short notice.

He’s shown zero ability to strike at the UFC level with a seemingly impossible -10.17 SSR in a modest sample. Cristian Quinonez may not be perfect, but he knocked out Khalid Taha at distance in 2022 before competitive distance fights with Raoni Barcelos and Kyung-Ho Kang that resulted in submission losses. It’s that aforementioned pulse of ability that has typically ran through Moutinho.

The 29-year-old favorite also has a regional win over Vinicius “Lok Dog” Oliveira on his resume, which sort of tracks as his 5’8″ frame would be of the few which wouldn’t give Oliveira a massive size edge.

To this point, UFC has avoided giving Moutinho anyone with grappling chops given his regional issues in that area. Quinonez’s three regional submissions are probably his most dangerous threat in that realm yet, and there’s also that whole “bad at striking” thing that has the Mexican positioned as the second-largest favorite on the card.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Moutinho has been shielded away from grappling threats because of an obvious hole in his game to this point. I couldn’t help but play Quinonez’s sub at +600 with a bit of that shown on the regional scene.

Ailin Perez vs. Macy Chiasson

Women’s Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Perez	61.27%	18.74%	9.34%	9.40%	42.52%
Chiasson	38.73%	10.76%	4.04%	6.72%	27.97%

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This is the first of just four model-eligible fights on the card, so an inconclusive result at current odds is extra painful.

I’ve certainly come around on Ailin Perez in a weak bantamweight division. She was young and inexperienced when Stephanie Egger managed to work her way to a choke in a debut loss, but the 31-year-old’s physical tools and gradual improvement at The Goat Shed in Miami, FL are pretty undeniable at this stage. Even more impressive than dropping and defeating Joselyne Edwards three fights ago, she just outlanded Karol Rosa (+7 differential) at distance in a fight where takedowns didn’t come easily.

I still think this test with Macy Chiasson will be her toughest yet. Chiasson has fought seemingly the entire top 10 at this stage, but her momentum has gone south with losses to Yana Santos and Ketlen Vieira in consecutive fights. Failing to go to her wrestling earlier was the culprit against Santos, which is a common theme for fighters from a struggling Fortis MMA gym. How’d Geoff Neal’s “weather the storm” gameplan work last week?

In what seems to be a classic, grimy women’s bantamweight bout, I’ve got concerns about Chiasson’s ability to return to her feet even if her entry-level takedown D (72%) has been very good. That lost her the Vieira bout. Plus, Macy’s striking D (45%) is not very good as Perez’s boxing has improved every fight. She’s clearly an ascending product with a better gym.

Perez is a little too expensive in case Chiasson can use her length and jab to win a lackluster fight, but there isn’t much to bet here.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: My model was in line with earlier numbers regarding the total, but Chiasson’s decision prop was modeled at +258. If you can find +300 or better, I’d pull the trigger knowing that Perez is historically durable and dramatically improved in terms of submission D.

Ryan Gandra vs. Jose Daniel Medina

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Gandra	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Medina	Eligible

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In any other matchup, Brazil’s Ryan Gandra seems like a stock prone to burst.

He was a -600ish favorite on DWCS and easily dispatched a regional veteran, Trent Miller, in a weight class not flush with entry-level talent. However, he’s got the second fighter that I mentioned is an automatic fade in his bracket this weekend. That’s Jose Daniel Medina, who might be clinging to the roster because of said lack of entry-level talent.

Medina didn’t even win on DWCS but was seen as so tough and resilient in a loss to Magomed Gadzhiyasulov that Dana signed him anyway on the condition he dropped to middleweight. That was a mistake. Not only has Gadzhiyasulov underwhelmed at 205 pounds, but Medina’s -2.91 SSR is a product of three massacres in losses to Zach Reese, Ateba Gautier, and Dusko Todorovic. That patented “toughness” has abandoned him with consecutive Round 1 losses, and he’s still very unathletic and squishy for this division.

Gandra doesn’t seemingly have a “safe” path with his grappling that Reese or Todorovic did, but Medina has landed just 36% of his significant strikes overall, and his signature attack seems to be gesturing to the crowd for support. He hasn’t dropped any of his four foes, either.

I suppose anything could happen in a low-level fistfight, but archetypes like Medina typically don’t improve. Their bad habits show up over and over again, and a physical, athletic training partner of Paulo Costa has an enormous advantage in a brawl or a more technical bout. Medina has truly one potential answer for him — a prayer.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: With the fight to start Round 2 at -180, this is my favorite type of sweat with a big favorite. I’m guessing Medina’s iron chin survives an early flurry before Gandra realizes he’ll have to wrap up the neck. I love takedown prop overs in DFS for the Brazilian, too.

Santiago Luna vs. Angel Pacheco

Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Luna	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Pacheco	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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This is an interesting second draw for 21-year-old Santiago Luna.

Luna gave fans what they were hoping for at Noche UFC with a sub-three-minute knockout of Quang Le in a fight that closed as a pick ’em. Born in San Diego with dual citizenship, he’s training at Entram Gym with Michael Morales and several other UFC alums in Tijuana.

On the other side of this one is New England’s Angel Pacheco, who has been in two dog fights during his UFC tenure. He lost a tight barnburner on DWCS to Danny Silva, and he lost a competitive decision to Caolan Loughran in March 2024. I haven’t found a confirmed source of what Pacheco was dealing with to miss nearly two full years of his tenure.

Obviously, this is a do-or-die spot for Pacheco, who has fought significantly tougher competition, so if there’s a hefty favorite that looks like a “Yadier del Valle” spot in hindsight, it’s possibly Luna. However, Pacheco has been a heavy bag to absorb 11.47 significant strikes per minute in two fights, and his takedown D (28%) is also bad.

Most UFC-caliber fighters will topple Pacheco even if he’s tough to finish, and not giving Luna that benefit of the doubt after his debut would be inappropriate cynicism.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: As uncovered on Wednesday’s show, backing Pacheco’s chin with Luna’s submission or decision prop at +100 is ideal. I lean decision (+410) of the two because of how the New England Cartel guys are usually extremely safe and risk-averse in bottom position.

Imanol Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas

Flyweight (125 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Rodriguez	Ineligible – UFC Debut
Borjas	Eligible

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Two of the best prospects in UFC in its lighter men’s weight classes hail from Mexico. Raul Rojas Jr. has been in UFC since he was 18, and Imanol Rodriguez now gives the country an entrant at 125 pounds.

Rodriguez’s path to UFC seems like that of a future superstar. At 25 years old, he — incorrectly — earned a split decision loss to Joseph Morales, who has already broken into the top 15, on The Ultimate Fighter. Having failed to make the promotion from the show, he instead opted for an appearance on DWCS, which saw him post three knockdowns in under three minutes to post one of the best wins of the season.

It’s pretty clear in this matchup that UFC will protect “Himan” to some extent. Kevin Borjas hasn’t had a horrible UFC career, but the one-dimensional striker from Peru has a -1.55 SSR through meetings with Joshua Van, Sumudaerji, Alessandro Costa, and “Lazy Boy” Rodriguez. His most recent loss to Sumudaerji, with a -57 striking differential, was the worst performance yet.

While the prospect is somewhat undersized, his power, explosiveness, and wrestling are qualities that Borjas largely hasn’t seen considering the physical differences between he and “Lazy Boy”. I’m expecting more of a ground-oriented approach after showing off the hands on DWCS.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Borjas is sort of in a more successful version of the same bucket as Moutinho. They’ve kept him away from grapplers, and Rodriguez might identify a hole he can exploit through that. Like the Luna fight, this is another good place to fade juiced odds of a (T)KO because of Rodriguez’s DWCS bout.

Edgar Chairez vs. Felipe Bunes

Flyweight (125 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Chairez	Eligible
Bunes	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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If you try to tell me that level of competition doesn’t matter, look at the UFC career of Edgar Chairez.

Chairez was flatly embarassed by Joshua Van, Tatsuro Taira, and Clayton Carpenter, but he waltzed through CJ Vergara and Daniel Lacerda — and their combined 3-8 UFC record against all others. I still think the UFC is trying to figure out where he stands, and I’ll be honest that I don’t love his style.

“Puro Chicali” is a grappler by trade (1.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes) without a single takedown landed in five UFC-affiliated fights. At distance, he’s got some pop but has been bludgeoned for a -1.64 SSR with awful defense (42%). I took the longshot dart at Vergara, who didn’t have the grappling chops to survive early. Felipe Bunes does, but he’s got his own problems.

Bunes’ striking (-1.73 SSR) is even more limited because he hasn’t shown Chairez’s power to this point. He’s also struggled to make the 126-pound limit in this division, and that’s manifested in extreme cardio issues against Van and Rafael Estevam. “Felipinho” has one UFC win, which was a quick armbar of Jose Johnson (1-3 UFC).

Without that quick sub, this figures to be a fight where Chairez has a sizeable advantage in distance striking and cardio. If there’s a path for the Mexican favorite to lose, it’s spending two rounds in bottom position due to his poor takedown D (33%) and failing to get Bunes out of there in Round 3.

It’s just tough to see that formula coming to fruition given this fight will happen at extreme elevation, and the hometown judges will probably be very friendly with striking “damage” over control.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Chairez’s moneyline is the worst way to play him. His tendency to sit on bottom could lose two rounds, but if Bunes fatigues, playing Chairez’s R2 or R3 prop (+175) encompasses the dynamic of why he’s favored here without the downside.

Daniel Zellhuber vs. King Green

Lightweight (155 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Zellhuber	44.80%	26.24%	19.56%	6.68%	18.56%
Green	55.20%	12.51%	5.50%	7.00%	42.69%

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Here’s the most hilarious model result of the week. I don’t think it’s wrong.

I just don’t know how you lay this chalk with Daniel Zellhuber when, nine months ago, he fought the exact same type of fight to lose to Michael “The Menace” Johnson, becoming the first fighter with a black belt in BJJ to do that since Alan Patrick, who couldn’t strike at all, in 2022. Zellhuber’s nickname of “Golden Boy” has aged ironically when, to this point, it’s been a lot of hype and not a lot of results.

Zellhuber froze against Trey Ogden in his debut and got hurt late in a violent 2024 war against Esteban Ribovics, losing a -200 or larger favorite three times in his last six fights. Analytically, my model sees a -0.08 SSR against a poor level of competition with poor wrestling offense to even make his BJJ matter.

Meanwhile, King Green has been in this spot — and undervalued — several times. I still don’t think people understand how elite his striking D (62%) is because he’s been caught and put out at times. Just in the last 20 months, this is a guy who flattened Grant Dawson and destroyed Jim Miller, but bettors remember the submission loss to Paddy Pimblett and the horrible late stoppage against Jalin Turner.

There is nothing — and I mean nothing — in these two’s resumes that suggests this betting line is appropriate. Zellhuber hasn’t shown elite power, footwork, or fight IQ. This feels like it could be an even more difficult version of the MJ fight where Green slips around the outside to win on the scorecards. King’s effort against Lance Gibson Jr. in December showed that, largely, the speed and defense are still there.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I’ll be honest; Green being such a big ‘dog after a worse fighter, Johnson, just did this same thing is scary. But, there’s absolutely nothing in Zellhuber’s profile that shows him as some powerful finisher, so if King’s chin isn’t complete dust, I’m not sure how he doesn’t skirt his way to a win on the scorecards.

Marlon “Chito” Vera vs. David Martinez

Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Vera	44.54%	19.28%	6.99%	12.29%	25.26%
Martinez	55.46%	12.91%	11.45%	1.46%	42.55%

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Mexico will have plenty of prelim moments to celebrate, but this is another fight where the ranked hometown guys will have to really scrap for a win.

David Martinez made the most of an opportunity that Kyler Phillips, Jean Matsumoto, and others couldn’t. 38-year-old Rob Font finally couldn’t keep the gate, letting the karate-based sensation join the rankings less than 20 octagon minutes into his career. He’s a few seconds short of model eligibility, but I ran it anyway given the legitimate test Font provides.

“Doctor”, a nickname awarded based on his actual profession, will look to continue rising the rankings with a win over Marlon “Chito” Vera. The former title challenger has lost four of his last five against a diabolical strength of schedule that included Sean O’Malley, Cory Sandhagen, and Deiveson Figueiredo.

When Vera was rising toward the championship picture, he was a well-rounded guy that grappled. Chito has sort of devolved to a low-volume counter striker that still picks his shots excellently, but there is a reason he’s 4-10 to decision outcomes in UFC — and these recent 15-minute fights haven’t helped.

Luckily, the price makes this an easy call. Vera destroyed Font when those two matched up in a 2022 main event, and Chito is still in his prime at 33. Squeaking by Font using big moments wasn’t any sort of convincing result that makes you feel like Martinez is a bonafide future contender.

Everything about this fight suggests it’ll be a tight affair that finds the scorecards unless it’s Vera that finds a patented killshot. Have I seen enough from Martinez to think he’s the first UFC fighter in 26 tries to finish the Ecuadorian? Not even close.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Something tells me David Martinez won’t be the first guy in 26 fights to finish “Chito”, making Vera’s finish-only prop (-120) a steal. I actually think a submission is live if Martinez can’t grapple at all. However, that most likely will void in a tight decision. I’ll take a small accompanying swing at the moneyline, too.

Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh

Flyweight (125 pounds); Five-Round Main Event

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Moreno	55.07%	27.06%	14.63%	12.44%	28.00%
Kavanagh	44.93%	15.19%	7.82%	7.38%	29.74%

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This is such a thrilling main event to bet for me personally given my historical stance on both Brandon Moreno and Lone’er Kavanagh.

Moreno is a fan favorite, so I’ve often taken flack for saying I just don’t think he’s ever had his reputation’s skillset, and a 2024 move to Fortis MMA hasn’t helped. The floodgates opened in December as Tatsuro Taira became the first UFC fighter to ever finish “The Assassin Baby”. I’m wondering if, at 32, we’re onto the back nine of the Mexican champ’s career.

He’s a good boxer, but a +0.27 SSR is no Volkanovski-level statement against a championship schedule. He can mix it up with takedowns (44% accuracy), but it’s not his strength. He has found submissions, but at 0.4 attempts per 15 minutes, it’s not a huge part of his gameplan. I just have always seen him as a well-rounded combatant without a true identity. That’s why I think this fight with will be close. They’re always close.

England’s Kavanagh has a chance to undo a big mistake. As he was dominating Charles Johnson last fall, “Inner G” found a haymaker as Kavanagh backed out of the pocket with his hands down. It was a similar thing that happened to Josh Van against the same big, powerful flyweight. That moment doesn’t really undo the statement happening before it.

Training at Great Britain Top Team, Lone’er is one of the best prospects in the world at 26. He’s been training MMA — and MMA as a base — since he was 5. You see the defensive fundamentals, per a 58% striking D and 88% takedown D, that have largely shined in his brief tenure.

Father Time comes for all, and that’s why I think this line is drifting Kavanagh’s way. When fresh, he’ll probably have a speed advantage and has shown the wrestling to exploit Moreno’s so-so 64% takedown defense, which has gotten worse since moving to Fortis. While there are longevity concerns in the Englishman’s first five-rounder, that’s baked into a price that seems way, way too wide considering the narrow margins Moreno usually creates.

Steve Erceg had a +27 striking differential against Moreno last year, and I’d back him at this price in a rematch. Kavanagh is a significantly higher-level prospect training at a much better gym.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Kavanagh is the truth. One bad moment doesn’t undo that. I’m sort of in a box where I do understand these are difficult circumstances for the Englishman on short notice, but how I’ve viewed both of these fighters historically made Kavanagh an easy play at +200 on Monday. I think this is a razor-thin decision where he’ll be the clear side to have bet in hindsight.