UFC Seattle Betting Primer: Fight Predictions, Props, and Model Results for Adesanya vs. Pyfer

UFC Seattle brings the return of an aging superstar looking to end a three-fight losing skid. Will Israel Adesanya get back on track, or will Joe Pyfer be the latest middleweight to use the former champ as a stepping stone to title contention?

If you’re new here, this is my betting primer. I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’m going to be right; I just want to get it right, and I’ll give you my best effort every week.

I invite you to join the fan club of Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed it or would rather read, I’ve got you.

From a betting perspective, let’s preview UFC Seattle: Adesanya vs. Pyfer, taking place at the Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.

UFC Seattle: Adesanya vs. Pyfer Betting Picks and Props

 

Alexia Thainara vs. Bruna Brasil

Women’s Strawweight (115 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Thainara	75.99%	48.38%	13.05%	35.33%	27.61%
Brasil	24.01%	3.14%	1.53%	1.61%	20.87%

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As one of my favorite follows on X, Calf Kick Zach, pointed out, it’s likely this line for Alexia Thainara‘s latest appearance has gotten a bit wide, but it is also the third-largest favorite my model has ever delivered.

Thainara has taken care of business at strawweight thus far with an easy submission of “Meatball” Molly McCann and a size-induced bullying of Loma Lookboonme — an atomweight if such a division existed. I have to say, her analytics are pretty sparkling. A +2.06 striking success rate (SSR) in nearly 35 octagon minutes is nothing to sneeze at, and she’s added 3.91 takedowns per 15 minutes with easy accuracy (60%).

In my opinion, Bruna Brasil is why this line sits where it is. Brasil hasn’t been able to translate her Fighting Nerds banner to fight IQ, making extremely questionable decisions and often circling to avoid conflict. When the Brazilian lets her knees and elbows go, you see the size and power, but she has a -1.02 SSR for a reason. From a grappling perspective, she’s never been subbed as a pro, but her takedown D (61%) has been mediocre in UFC, and Ketlen Souza scored 8:03 in cage control despite just one takedown landed last month at the Apex.

Brasil submitted Thainara with a standing guillotine choke in 2019 when these ladies met on the regional scene, but Thainara won the first two rounds and was 21 years old compared to Brasil’s 26. They’re now equally close to UFC’s analytical prime age of 30.

While Bruna has been historically responsible in grappling exchanges, I genuinely can’t understand her gameplan or decision-making every trip to the octagon. Making one mistake against the confident, physical favorite could be deadly.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I was very much surprised to see Thainara’s submission prop (+240) so playable. She’s attempted at an extremely high rate in her three UFC-affiliated fights. It’s not as if Brasil’s fight IQ is infallible.

Ricky Simon vs. Adrian Yanez

Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Simon	56.58%	21.99%	14.11%	7.88%	34.59%
Yanez	43.42%	18.57%	16.94%	1.63%	24.84%

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This is really great matchmaking. Adrian Yanez has historically fought guys looking to take him down, and Ricky Simon has fought guys who have looked to keep him at boxing range. We definitely have a “both sides are live” clash at 135 pounds.

It’s crazy that Simon, once the hot prospect on the rise who scored a controversial finish of Merab Dvalishvili, is now 33. He’s lost four of his last six but hopes fighting closer to home at UFC Seattle will give him a jolt like the highlight-reel knockout he produced against Javid Basharat at this arena last year. Ricky’s takedown volume (11.37 attempts per 15 minutes) and efficiency (41% accuracy) just seem to be on the decline ever so slightly when his hands have always been a problem (-0.81 SSR).

At the same time, he’s fought bigger bantamweights like Raoni Barcelos, Song Yadong, and Vinicius Oliveira. Yanez is one of the least physically imposing fighters in the division but possesses elite boxing technique and precision, evidenced by a 1.65% knockdown rate (KD%) and five UFC (T)KOs thus far.

Especially since Simon smoked Basharat in one shot, you also have to worry about both fighters’ durability at distance. In addition to Yanez’s power, he was cleaned out by Rob Font and had his legs sawed off by Jonathan Martinez’s patented calf kicks.

Personally, Simon is a deserving favorite because he’s got the potential for an equalizer on the feet in addition to the grappling upside, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Yanez starts to roll downhill if he’s stuffing takedowns early. As is often the case, the probabilities of those events skewed toward the favorite this week, so I’m leaning a ‘dog shot as of Friday.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I did not expect Yanez’s knockout and decision props to be an identical +350. The decision is within the value range against model percentages, and that checks out with Simon not having been put away in a three-rounder since 2019.

Navajo Stirling vs. Bruno Lopes

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Stirling	Eligible
Lopes	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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City Kickboxing has a product, Carlos Ulberg, fighting for the 205-pound title in short order. It’s quite possible that Ulberg might genuinely not be the best 205er in their room, though.

Navajo Stirling has blown the doors off competitors who have still managed to collect wins after he dismantled them. Stirling’s +3.53 SSR against two multi-time UFC winners is elite, and the great surprise has been his willingness to mix it up in the wrestling. He’s posted 4.10 takedown attempts per 15 minutes. Though the accuracy hasn’t been great (28%), I think he’s sharpening the toolkit against this lower level of competition while he can, considering his striking, which has, obviously, made the grade.

I felt great about Stirling coming off Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS), and I wasn’t sure about Bruno Lopes after seeing his first DWCS loss to Brendeson Ribeiro age poorly. Lopes’ octagon career has followed. He earned a wall-and-stall win over Magomed Gadzhiyasulov in his debut before a quick, uncompetitive knockout loss to Dustin Jacoby. The latter is solid competition, but that’s now two different knockout losses and a -0.58 SSR in totality.

In some ways, this seems like the undefeated Kiwi’s chance to finally add a highlight beyond the Round 2 finish from DWCS. I think he’s motivated to show he’s not boring, and the Brazilian seems to be swimming up a certain creek with no paddle on the wrong side of a five-inch reach deficit here.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: My jaw was on the floor to see Stirling’s (T)KO in the -160 to -190 range at most books. I thought he was a decision machine? It feels like oddsmakers are spoiling the movie; UFC is trying to set up a highlight here. I’m leaning early, too.

Casey O’Neill vs. Gabriella Fernandes

Women’s Flyweight (125 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
O’Neill	66.78%	19.58%	4.21%	15.38%	47.19%
Fernandes	33.22%	7.39%	2.46%	4.94%	25.83%

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Injuries derailed what I thought could have been a championship-level career for Casey O’Neill, but I’m happy to see her back off another long layoff here.

O’Neill’s analytics have been sparkling since her debut. She’s landed 7.89 significant strikes per minute with elite accuracy (52%) and defense (57%), adding 1.45 takedowns and 0.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes. All of this implies the elite pace and cardio you see on tape, too. Her last win over Luana Santos — doing well in her new weight class — was a return to form after a shocking loss to Ariane da Silva, who dismantled O’Neill at distance and won via armbar. Mentally, I couldn’t process that result, but the Santos one suggests it was an injury or a fluke.

She’s still just 28 and possesses a three-inch reach edge over Gabriella Fernandes in this one. Fernandes’ UFC career might be over if Wang Cong hadn’t played with her food and gotten clipped in Macau. Just when you thought Fernandes might have turned the corner from a 1-2 start, she posted a -2 striking differential against perhaps the worst distance fighter in the division, Julija Stoliarenko. She also robbed Carli Judice blind despite a -50 striking differential.

Stoliarenko’s inability to get that fight to the ground does imply hope the Brazilian has shored up her takedown defense (68%), and there is something optically about Fernandes’ ability to sit down on her punches that judges seem to love from a “damage” perspective. Still, the projected numbers in a striking match don’t seem close, and you’d figure the Scottish fighter is also the one with the grappling upside of these two.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: This is a pick ’em fight, but as you can see, this is no pick ’em model result. I didn’t max bet O’Neill because of just confusion about what happened in the da Silva effort, but she should use her pace or wrestling to win wherever this fight goes.

Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune

Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Tybura	Eligible
Fortune	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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The top MMA promotion in the world is recycling PFL heavyweights. First, it was Ante Delija. Now, it’s Tyrell Fortune. I guess Marcin Tybura is the litmus test.

Fortune has extensive miles in Bellator (13-2) and a few in PFL (1-1), but it wasn’t an unsuccessful tenure. The American’s wrestling background comes out with explosive double-leg takedowns and a solid whizzer in spots, and he’s got a fast entry into the pocket and quick, powerful hands. There are flaws, though. We’ve seen the chin crack in lower promotions, and I don’t rate his bottom game highly if his opponent can dictate the wrestling positions. Fortune’s only pro sub was a rear-naked choke in 2019, as well.

This fight will really go a long way in determining what Tybura has left in the tank. He fought a competitive affair with Mick Parkin before an extremely uncompetitive Round 1 knockout loss to Delija, whose lost two in a row since that bout. The Polish veteran has always been a “neutralizer” as a big body hard to move, and his kickboxing (+0.26) is okay — though lacking volume. He’s added wrestling against terrible grapplers like Greg Hardy and Jhonata Diniz, but he doesn’t make his hay there.

I sort of decided on Sunday to fade line movement as my action in this fight.

Fortune’s Bellator tape is ancient, but it is plausible that he’ll have a speed advantage from it. However, if you say it out loud, Tybura has fought in the UFC rankings for a decade, and Fortune realistically lost to Linton Vassell and Sergey Bilostenniy three straight times in his last legitimate action. He was saved by a DQ in one of those fights. Plus, laying chalk here seems ill-advised in case Fortune has picked up any sloppy habits from a laughable level of competition regionally in recent months.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: There are mental blockades in bettors’ heads that Tybura just got smoked by a PFL alum, but Fortune has significantly more regional warts than Ante Delija did. I’ve let everyone get hyped all week while scooping up the UFC veteran at +120. It’s probably a longer, uglier fight — as most Tybura grinds are.

Chase Hooper vs. Lance Gibson Jr.

Lightweight (155 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Hooper	Eligible
Gibson Jr.	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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How about a dual hometown matchup at UFC Seattle? Chase Hooper is from nearby Enumclaw, and Lance Gibson Jr. hails from the Emerald City itself.

UFC fans and bettors have an unusual attachment to Hooper, having seen him grow up in one of the UFC’s toughest divisions since he was 18. “The Dream” has a unique, fun style full of electric scrambles and excellent gramby rolls, and his submission skills (2.1 attempts per 15 minutes) are as lethal as they come. However, Hooper’s last fight shows he might just never have the striking (39% defense) necessary to get anywhere near the rankings.

Alexander Hernandez flattened him in the first round, and this came after an underwhelming effort in which he failed to finish a version of Jim Miller in his 40s. I just can’t advise a chalk bet on Hooper against anyone with quality submission defense, and Gibson checks that box with a 3-0 record to submissions as a pro.

Of course, the second-generation MMA fighter from Canada has been training his whole life in the sport as the son of Lane Gibson and Julia Budd. He got a short-notice call in December against King Green’s elite movement, hand speed, and defense, and he just couldn’t solve the puzzle, despite doing what Daniel Zellhuber, Grant Dawson, and others couldn’t by going the full 15 minutes.

Physiologically, Hooper’s 6’1″ frame is not designed to wrestle, which is why his takedown accuracy (33%) is just okay when he needs fights on the ground. Gibson almost certainly has the striking edge here.

This feels like a line where oddsmakers are lulling bettors into the Hooper bounceback spot, but he typically hasn’t covered this number outside of a quick submission. I suppose he did with unrelenting volume against Nick Fiore, but Fiore didn’t win a round in two octagon trips.

If you like Hooper, just play the sub. It’s how he covers this number. Otherwise, Gibson is a live ‘dog.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: After careful consideration, the best play in this fight is under 2.5 rounds (-125). Hooper’s submission danger is very real, but his own head movement is a problem, as well. Both of these guys are looking for a big moment close to home.

Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev

Lightweight (155 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Bahamondes	Eligible
Musayev	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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UFC must think extremely highly of Tofiq Musayev to have handed him Myktybek Orolbai and Ignacio Bahamondes in two fights. Sheesh.

Unfortunately for Musayev, the red flags of a regional 2-3 record to submissions manifested in a first-round loss by kimura to Orolbai. He landed just two significant strikes before Orolbai’s wrestling engulfed him, so it’s just hard to verify anything else.

The problem with a “buy-low” spot versus Bahamondes starts with the Chilean’s sneaky submission game, which manifests in 0.5 attempts per 15 minutes and two UFC wins by tap. Of course, then there’s the primary problem with fighting the 6’3″ lightweight: a diverse array of strikes behind a 75″ reach. The per-minute efficiency (+2.22 SSR) is stellar, and Bahamondes flattened Manuel Torres in 2024, too.

When we’ve seen Bahamondes lose, it’s been spotty takedown defense. Ludovit Klein landed three takedowns, and Rafael Fiziev landed four. Otherwise, “La Jaula” has a strong 75% entry level takedown D and offense off his back. Musayev’s regional tape shows someone who’d rather operate with his hands.

Exiting that Orolbai bout, I’d have presumed I’d be looking to buy the Azerbaijani fighter. But Bahamondes is as tricky a puzzle to solve as Orolbai was — in a very different way.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Musayev’s regional tape shows a striker with limited ability to wrestle. That’s really the only way we’ve seen Bahamondes lose. I wrapped Ignacio into both of my main parlays because, at worst, I think he grinds out an ugly decision. His inside-the-distance prop (-120) makes a ton of sense, though.

Terrance McKinney vs. Kyle Nelson

Lightweight (155 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
McKinney	68.28%	57.29%	27.91%	29.38%	10.99%
Nelson	31.72%	14.00%	9.51%	4.48%	17.73%

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UFC might be the most popular sport in the world if every fighter fought like Terrance McKinney.

“T-Wrecks” is a scrapper by the very definition of the word. In 25 pro fights, he’s never seen a third round just one time and tapped his opponent 53 seconds into that final round. Every fight week, McKinney promises a more patient, measured approach, but he sees red and hunts from the opening bell as he did against Chris Duncan, exhausting himself in a matter of minutes if the finish doesn’t come.

My model adores the approach since his per-minute results, like a +3.30 SSR and 3.34 takedowns per 15 minutes, are sparkling. The fight is usually going extremely well until he’s unconscious. I think there’s a reason he’s become prohibitive chalk as my model indicates this week. Kyle Nelson is no stranger to being the “nail” to someone else’s “hammer”.

That was the case in the Canadian’s final featherweight bout against Steve Garcia, and he’s moved his 5’11” frame to 155 pounds. Debuting at lightweight, Nelson controlled a weathered Matt Frevola in a fight he nearly stopped in the first round.

McKinney is a brutal draw when Nelson’s -0.88 SSR hasn’t felt a true, accurate power punch as Frevola increasingly wings inaccurate bombs. McKinney lands early, and there’s also submission danger when Nelson has been matched up with strikers for the vast majority of his UFC career.

I don’t want to give Nelson “no chance” because he’ll win an extended fight — as anyone will against McKinney. It’s just quite the storm to weather for someone with an extensive history of not doing so.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Nelson is a popular underdog pick because of McKinney’s known flaws. He’s a sweat of a few minutes. The problem is that Nelson has crumbled to the early storm before, and this one is a hurricane. I like McKinney in Round 1 (+135).

Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Yousri Belgaroui

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Abdul-Malik	Ineligible – Octagon Time
Belgaroui	Ineligible – Octagon Time

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The first legitimate test of Mansur Abdul-Malik‘s career should be a fun one.

Abdul-Malik has been — sometimes due to cancellations and other circumstances — babied through a UFC schedule that’s included Antonio Trocoli, Dusko Todorovic, Cody Brundage, and Nick Klein. Add in Wes Schultz from DWCS, and those five fighters’ combined UFC record is 9-21, and Mansur struggled his way into later rounds with Klein and Brundage. You’d have hoped for better than a +0.72 SSR at this stage.

Still, Yousri Belgaroui has questions of his own to answer. Belgaroui stunned Azamat Bekoev as a +250 underdog last fall, and the Tunisian fighter’s loss on DWCS to Marco Tulio (2-1 UFC) hasn’t aged horribly. Belgaroui is a long, tall kickboxer who trains with Alex Pereira and Glover Teixeira. He allowed 4 of 8 takedowns in his debut but ceded only 3:18 in control time, showcasing those two’s patented get-up game.

I’d be terrified to hold a Belgaroui ticket if this fight hit the ground with him in bottom position, but Abdul-Malik’s only career submission attempt was the guillotine of Trocoli. I just don’t think that danger is extremely present when Belgaroui (+3.30 SSR) will have a massive advantage at distance. Abdul-Malik was rocked by Klein and has a mediocre 51% striking defense overall.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Like Poatan, Belgaroui is not a guy who throws with a ton of power in his shots, but his size just makes them complete hammers. Abdul-Malik hasn’t been particularly reliable in getting fights to the ground, and I think he’s cooked here if that remains the case.

Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas

Featherweight (145 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Eligibility
Erosa	Eligible
Douglas	Ineligible – UFC Debut

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Julian Erosa has always been my historical poster child for trying to quantify a fighter’s chin.

I think the 36-year-old has maximized his MMA career with a 9-8 UFC record, but 5 of those 8 losses have come via knockouts within the first six minutes. Time and time again, Erosa’s durability has cost him, as he lands 6.21 significant strikes per minute with great accuracy (48%) and is likely an even better grappler. Lerryan Douglas will be wary of shooting takedowns at a guy who has found the gully for two of his last three wins, as well.

However, the UFC has a preferred outcome here: another Erosa early knockout loss. Douglas was one of the most jaw-dropping performers on Season 9 of DWCS, delivering a violent finish in which he dropped Cam Teague twice in 36 seconds. Douglas took out Teague faster than Kevin Vallejos did.

The Brazilian “Gunslinger” has earned his way into UFC the hard way, facing Javier Reyes, Elijah Johns, Chepe Mariscal, Isaac Thomson, and other top LFA performers on the regional scene. He was a clear step ahead of Reyes, who just started his UFC tenure with an emphatic win in Mexico.

Douglas’ 58.3% pro knockout rate implies a tremendous amount of early danger, and that’s historically been Erosa’s undoing. “Juicy J” hasn’t been put out early since April 2023, which has been a long enough gap to leave this “quick bonk” at playable numbers.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Especially since Douglas is well-updated on his vitamins, I just can’t see this fight playing out any other way than a clean right hand in the first round. His Round 1 knockout would be -125 if Erosa hasn’t gotten a light schedule (in terms of power) recently.

Michael Chiesa vs. Niko Price

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Chiesa	65.79%	47.99%	23.20%	24.78%	17.80%
Price	34.21%	15.31%	9.27%	6.04%	18.91%

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It’s been a long, sad decline for Niko Price, who has shifted to the “anytime, anywhere” model of staying on the roster. At UFC Seattle, he’s saving a potential retirement bout for Michael Chiesa in his backyard.

“The Hybrid” has lost seven of his last nine fights with finalized results, and they’ve been increasingly quicker Ls. Price’s flailing chin allowed Nikolay Veretennikov to show legitimate power for the first time in any matchup, and that was coming off a pair of losses due to grappling deficiencies, allowing 9 takedowns and 3 submission attempts to Themba Gorimbo and Cobe Smith.

That’s why Chiesa is a -750 favorite at 37 years old with plenty of gray in his beard. “The Maverick” has longed for this spotlight not too far from Spokane, and I’m of the belief he’ll walk away with a win or a loss. Chiesa has definitely slowed down, needing his kickboxing to turn away a fellow senior citizen, Court McGee, during his last trip to the cage. Max Griffin and Tony Ferguson are the other elder statesmen who have helped Chiesa build a three-fight win streak.

Obviously, this line is wide. The perception that Price is “done” and just here for a check is overpriced, given that Chiesa has his own flaws. Plus, Price hasn’t been tapped by someone on his same physical plane — unlike Smith — since 2017.

Betting this fight is interesting. My model returned a convincing enough result Chiesa’s way to the point where I don’t have to lose coin on the Floridian for once. I would agree with the verdict that Niko’s chin is as big a concern as getting tapped, which could be very interesting considering Chiesa has never won a UFC bout by (T)KO.

People may not remember this fight, but I’m still convinced Price — closer to his prime — took a dive against Robbie Lawler in 2023. Perhaps he’s back to give the UFC another special moment here.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Of course, Price is the value side from a moneyline perspective. I’ve lost enough money on him to pass on that, but this fight to end by knockout (+470) and Chiesa’s knockout prop (+1200) were an insane find on Wednesday’s show. It’s simply too high a number for two chinny old guys to stumble into one at striking distance.

Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber

Women’s Flyweight (125 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Grasso	41.04%	10.51%	1.62%	8.90%	30.53%
Barber	58.96%	9.45%	5.39%	4.06%	49.50%

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For those who call me an AI robot, I wish you were right. I wouldn’t have made the mistake I did here.

I mentally thought I modeled Maycee Barber at -160, but this number is closer to -145. I parlayed her at -158 anyway in the Home of Fight Discord on Monday. Oops. At the very least, I can feel better that the line has ballooned to -180 since I laid the chalk, indicating some pretty obvious advantages for “The Future” in this spot.

Barber has become a size bully at flweight, landing 1.58 takedowns per 15 minutes with solid accuracy (45%) and nasty ground-and-pound. It’s a much better strategy than mediocre distance striking, which left her on the wrong end of a decision in her last loss against Alexa Grasso.

The Grasso rematch is here. Barber had a +2 striking differential and landed 3 takedowns to form what I’d call a robbery in 2021, and the Mexican fighter went on to win a championship in this division off that opportunity. She’s fallen on hard times, though. Grasso has ostensibly lost 16 of her last 19 rounds on the numbers. Her boxing (+0.38 SSR) is nothing special, and she’s regularly failed to stuff takedowns (54% defense) without a real get-up game, instead playing BJJ off her back.

Entering that 2021 bout, Barber was 22, while Grasso was 27. They’re now on a more even playing field relative to the median championship age of 30. Both fighters have improved, but Maycee is just larger and more physical. She’s shown great judo. Though not nearly the striker, I’d consider her better at getting fights to the ground than Valentina Shevchenko, who toyed with Grasso in the final bout of their trilogy to post 8 takedowns and 16:04 in control time.

Alexa has two paths to victory — another tight robbery or a submission off her back. Neither is particularly appealing at a moderate underdog price.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Barber’s decision prop (+115) snuck into value range on Friday. Though it might be an ugly, tight split decision where Grasso has a perverse argument to win, Barber brings a lot of the same weapons that have largely blown out the underdog in recent trips to the octagon.

Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer

Five-Round Main Event — Middleweight (185 pounds)

Model Results

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Fighter	Win	ITD	Win by KO	Win by Sub	Win by Dec
Adesanya	50.33%	18.49%	13.96%	4.53%	31.84%
Pyfer	49.67%	35.01%	18.26%	16.75%	14.66%

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You can make fun of my model, but, in my opinion, its signature moment has been predicting the obvious decline of Israel Adesanya — and I’m not sure it’s over.

In a prime I was told was electric, Adesanya failed to separate from Yoel Romero, Marvin Vettori, Jared Cannonier, and Robert Whittaker in a rematch. Against a plain 205-pound champion, he was bullied by Jan Blachowicz. One lucky counter against Alex Pereira prolonged a reign at the top that was otherwise moments from over. There is no arguing with my general assessment that “The Last Stylebender” has always been a one-dimensional fighter with minimal output and just above-average power. It’s a tough way to make a living other than feasting on an aging, poor middleweight division.

The new generation has dominated him. Joe Pyfer is very much someone that the UFC believes is part of that new generation, but “Bodybagz” needs a win like this to prove it.

At this stage, Pyfer’s best win was probably dropping the iron chin of Kelvin Gastelum twice. He lost a decision to Jack Hermansson due to endurance issues, and that’s aged like milk. Still, you have to like an archetype where Pyfer is gigantic for the weight class, mixes up his powerful striking (2.35 KD%) and wrestling, and has shown no durability concerns whatsoever to this point.

Truthfully, I expected to have a “max bet” on Pyfer going into this handicap. He’s really got a similar skill set and physicality to Dricus Du Plessis — if his BJJ isn’t even better. Pyfer’s striking numbers just aren’t special enough for the model to believe it’s one-way traffic.

Not many are getting chinned by Sean Stirckland and Nassourdine Imavov; Izzy did. Not many are getting submitted by Du Plessis; Izzy did. Of course, a technical striker like Adesanya can survive an early flurry from Pyfer and replicate Hermansson’s effort, but I have very little belief from anything I’ve seen against this new generation of 185ers that Adesanya belongs at all. It’s that simple.

Behind the tough talk is, clearly, a shaken level of confidence, as well. I think of Renan Barao and Rashad Evans as former champions who had a long descent to the bottom because they got exposed. Pyfer is dangerous enough to find an opening anywhere the fight goes if those demons are present.

SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: You can get Pyfer’s R1/R2/R3 prop (+210) and secure most of his equity to win. If this fight starts Round 4, the power is gone, Pyfer is likely gassed from wrestling, and Izzy has done enough to survive. Adesanya has just increasingly not done that, and “Bodybagz” is without a doubt the most physically imposing middleweight he’s faced since Alex Pereira.