Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
If there were any concerns about UFC Vegas 113 being a steep drop after back-to-back numbered cards, fear not. The UFC has dolled up this one for the first “Meta Apex” card of the Paramount+ era.
If you’re new here, this is my betting primer. I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for a half decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model that tries to find the answer using data for fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.
Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’m going to be right; I just want to get it right, and you’ll get my best effort every week.
I invite you to join the fan club of Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed or would rather read on Friday at the office, I’ve got you.
From a betting perspective, let’s preview UFC Vegas 113: Bautista vs. Oliveira, taking place at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.
UFC Vegas 113 Betting Picks and Props
Klaudia Sygula vs. Priscila Cachoeira
Women’s Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Sygula | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
| Cachoeira | Eligible |
I’ve said for years that “Zombie Girl” is the most fitting nickname in UFC. Priscila Cachoeira wades through damage, finds a way, and costs me coin.
The Brazilian’s -3.12 striking success rate (SSR) might only be topped by absorbing a whopping 7.23 significant strikes per minute as she’s been on the wrong side of some legendary beatings by Jasmine Jasudavicius, Valentina Shevchenko, and others. At 37, the durability might be waning considering her first career (T)KO loss to Joselyne Edwards last August.
Can Klaudia Sygula take advantage of that, though? Poland’s own was wiped on the mat via (T)KO by Melissa Mullins before a date with Irina Alekseeva where the enigmatic Russian was unable to floor Sygula and lost a convincing decision.
Sygula’s +0.57 SSR is clean enough to believe she’ll be ahead on a per-minute basis. She’s never been KO’d at distance, either.
Even with Sygula training at American Top Team with Kayla Harrison, all bets are off if these white belts end up on the ground. But, you won’t catch me picking Cachoeira, who is out of a “prime” that has resulted in five losses in her last seven bouts if the judges didn’t butcher one of the most infamous decisions in UFC history.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Sygula’s foundational training is strong enough to believe she’ll make the grappling strides necessary to wipe out “Zombie Girl”. I parlayed her moneyline (-152) with a favorable price on the card’s largest favorite.
Muin Gafurov vs. Jakub Wiklacz
Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Gafurov | Eligible |
| Wiklacz | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
I understand oddsmakers’ inability to take a hard stance here. Muin Gafurov and Jakub Wiklacz are both coming off some of the largest upsets of 2025.
Gafurov turned aside Rinya Nakamura in a low-volume decision where a knockdown banked him a pivotal Round 2. Wiklacz — against UFC’s wishes — snuck by former Bellator champion Patchy Mix, answering the question if Mix’s striking was indeed that bad.
It’s easy to favor “Tajik” here, though. His normalized UFC sample shows a passable striking (52%) and takedown (70%) defense against quality competitors like Nakamura, Kyung Ho Kang, and Said Nurmagomedov. Against Mix, the Polish fighter’s 36% striking D and 28% takedown D weren’t in that same zip code, and I don’t rate the former Bellator great as having elite hands or wrestling.
However, Wiklacz’s outstanding size and length proved to be an issue for Mix, and Gafurov has battled cardio issues his entire career. This is not an easy call.
At a pick ’em price, I’d have learned the favorite, but as he’s ballooned to -142 during the week, I think it’s now Wiklacz or pass. As Sebastian Szalay taught me once again last week, CLV is apparently for suckers now, anyway.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Gafurov’s wrestling is better than Patchy Mix’s, but I’m not sure his cardio, durability, or submission defense are. This line has ballooned to a Wiklacz spot, and I like the Polish grappler by submission (+300).
Wang Cong vs. Eduarda Moura
Women’s Flyweight (125 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Cong | 59.81% | 18.71% | 11.21% | 7.50% | 41.10% |
| Moura | 40.19% | 23.22% | 4.69% | 18.53% | 16.97% |
Matty and I have unapologetically been Wang Cong stans her entire UFC career, which is why I’m glad I have a model to remove bias here.
Don’t get me wrong; Cong is sick. Her +4.80 SSR is best of any fighter with multiple octagon trips on the cards. Ariane da Silva couldn’t touch her, and she played with her food against Bruna Brasil, too. It is going to be tough seeing any flyweight beat her without denting a 100% takedown D.
However, I have to give Eduarda Moura more credit than I wanted to entering this matchup. Moura’s fought significant tougher competition, she trains with a better gym, and she has all of this fight’s grappling upside when Cong’s one setback did come looking like a total fish out of water against Gabi Fernandes on the ground.
As a boxer, Cong ultimately hasn’t faced any legitimate takedown threat in her five UFC-affiliated appearances thus far. My model is probably underrating how badly Moura — with known cardio issues — will get her ass beat on the feet in late rounds if she’s unsuccessful early, but Cong also hasn’t shown a killer instinct to put away outmatched foes late.
Instead, current odds are significantly underrating the chance Moura’s takedown threat could prove to be all anyone needed against “The Joker”.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Cong via late violence is an angle that has taken steam all week, leaving undesirable numbers on a fighter yet to finish anyone besides Victoria Leonardo. The responsible move here is Moura’s moneyline (+280) and submission prop (+850) in case Cong’s grappling woes weren’t a fluke.
Javid Basharat vs. Gianni Vazquez
Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| J. Basharat | Eligible |
| Vazquez | Ineligible – UFC Debut |
In some ways, this might work out significantly better for Javid Basharat. Sharing the card with his brother for the first time, he’s downgraded opponents from a dangerous Said Nurmagomedov to debutant Gianni Vazquez.
Don’t misunderstand that, though. To draw Basharat on exceptionally short notice, the UFC does rate the 125-pound prospect from Mexico highly. He’s won five in a row since being on the wrong end of one of the worst officiating gaffes in MMA history against Edgar Chairez, and he’s also defeated a top-10 contender, David Martinez, in this same 135-pound division.
Vazquez is a high-volume striker with good low kicks and takedown defense — for his division. He’ll have to exercise a speed edge to overcome natural disadvantages when up in weight against Basharat, who might have needed a break like this after consecutive setbacks to Ricky Simon (by violent KO) and Aiemann Zahabi.
Javid’s +0.00 SSR is extremely plain despite responsible defensive metrics, and his best win at this stage is likely Tony Gravely. He’s also never secured a UFC finish.
Preliminary odds on this last-minute showcase give me flashbacks to Muhammad Naimov’s 2024 assignment at 135 pounds against another awesome prospect, Felipe Lima. It was a foregone conclusion the multi-time winner would dispatch the prospect, but his worst habits showed up to spark a mammoth upset.
I don’t have the gumption to call it officially, but I’ve got no interest in any moneyline or prop around Basharat at -1000.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I haven’t seen the appeal from Basharat to think there’s any value behind his bloated price, but actually expecting Vazquez to get his hand raised is also a bit far-fetched. This fight is a pass.
Bruna Brasil vs. Ketlen Souza
Women’s Flyweight (125 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Brasil | 48.38% | 14.90% | 6.34% | 8.56% | 33.48% |
| Souza | 51.62% | 23.41% | 15.53% | 7.87% | 28.21% |
Wait a minute…I thought the Fighting Nerds were back? No one wants a piece of Bruna Brasil here?
Brasil has still won three of her last five oscillating between UFC’s two smallest weight classes, but her last effort headlining a Road to UFC event against Shi Ming (0-1 UFC) wasn’t exactly an overwhelming display of force. Brasil’s -1.16 SSR is a problem for a long kickboxing archetype, but it’s also come against Wang Cong, Loma Lookboonme, Dee Gomes, and other fighters hovering around the edge of the rankings. The 2-3 UFC record of Ketlen Souza is a fair test.
Souza’s club-and-sub of Yazmin Jauregui appears to be just one of several instances where the Mexican prospect’s chin gave way. In her last two efforts, Souza has ceded 10 total takedowns with below-average defense (50%) overall. At distance, her length (63″ reach) is a problem with most of the other positive statistics due to a drubbing of Marnic Mann (0-3 UFC).
I actually think this could be a coming-out party for Brasil. Not only do I trust the Nerds significantly more than “Team Felipe Rego” (???) as Souza’s listed gym, but Bruna is 3-0 in fights where she’s recorded multiple takedowns, and that’s been a common undoing for the Brazilian favorite.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Brasil’s moneyline (+134) is great value at this number. She’s the longer, more experienced striker at distance, and the takedown upside might actually be hers. My model’s verdict should speak volumes when Souza’s peripherals are heavily inflated by her battering of Marnic Mann.
Nikolay Veretennikov vs. Niko Price
Welterweight (170 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Veretennikov | 48.08% | 21.96% | 15.17% | 6.79% | 26.12% |
| Price | 51.92% | 27.86% | 18.86% | 8.99% | 24.06% |
Now this is the Meta Apex, baby! It’s almost certainly a loser-goes-home affair between Nikolay Veretennikov and Niko Price considering the two’s combined 2-8 UFC record since the start of 2022.
Veretennikov’s placement as a sizeable favorite is peculiar when his only UFC triumph was over the 155-pound frame of Francisco Prado — and it was tight. I think the Kazak fighter might have had more success in UFC in his prime, but he’s been a bit slow on the feet (-0.76 SSR) with grappling issues that have derailed his efforts against Austin Vanderford and Puna Soriano.
That said, Price steps in on short notice with the look, smell, and sound of a fighter who is feeling the miles from several UFC brawls. Really, he’s just been in a similar boat with poor takedown D (50%) against the likes of Jacobe Smith and Themba Gorimbo recently after also taking what I believe was a dive that resulted in a retiring Robbie Lawler’s first knockdown in over seven years.
“The Hybrid” landed five takedowns against Alex Morono, which was an interesting change of pace that my model identifies as a path to success against Veretennikov, but the favorite also hasn’t landed a knockdown in five appearances when a younger version of Price lived on them.
I genuinely am baffled by this betting line between two unreliable customers. While I suppose Niko’s decline has been longer and more pronounced, playing any sort of favored lines or props behind Veretennikov seems like lunacy. I sort of agree with my model’s verdict that I’m leaning Price straight up — much less as a huge ‘dog.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: The last-minute nature of this fight for their jobs probably increases caution for both guys. Price (+240) is easily the side at cost, but I’ll be hunting overs and his decision prop when available at sportsbooks.
Alex Morono vs. Daniil Donchenko
Welterweight (170 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Morono | Eligible |
| Donchenko | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
UFC is leaning into its TKO roots with staged entertainment at times, and this is the type of matchup where I’ve just learned to get out of the way and let it happen.
As a volume-reliant points-earner, Alex Morono has been outstruck in seven straight fights. Now at 35, his historical lack of athleticism has become dangerous, and I think he’s been held back by never cutting down to 155 pounds and via a permanent association with Fortis MMA — perhaps the sport’s worst major gym. He’s taken almost a year off after Carlos Leal landed 79 strikes in under five minutes to (T)KO him in the first round.
Daniil Donchenko is a marauder that should close the show with any level of aggression here based on his athleticism. Training at Tiger Muay Thai with Rafael Fiziev, Donchenko erupted for a violent first-round knockout to win the last The Ultimate Fighter season, but it was not sloppy offense, per a 72% striking D as well. Landing 8.76 significant strikes per minute just made it look that way in the box score.
Morono’s lone prayer is that Donchenko fatigues himself into what is probably an underrated jiu-jitsu threat, but he’s shown a waning ability to actually survive to get there. Plus, Donchenko is no brawler. He’s got legitimate footwork, elbows, knees, and takedown defense. I rate him as a better prospect than Ateba Gautier, for instance.
Rodrigo Sezinando, the guy that Donchenko beat up, is probably a moderate favorite over this version of Morono himself. This matchup seems like a sanctioned sacrifice.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: This moneyline (-550) honestly seems fine to me when Morono completely stopped defending himself against Leal. At worst, Donchenko likely takes multiple rounds on cage control and his powerful strikes. At best, the Ukrainian detonates the veteran’s fleeting chin.
Dustin Jacoby vs. Julius Walker
Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Jacoby | Eligible |
| Walker | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
Is the third time the charm for UFC to change the guard away from Dustin Jacoby?
The 37-year-old kickboxer has staved off Vitor Petrino and Bruno Lopez — highly touted prospects — via knockout in consecutive fights. Jacoby is a master of distance with great striking defense (57%), and he’s done a good enough job stuffing takedowns to thwart most oncoming threats. Overall, the Coloradan is 7-4 in his last 11 fights, and all four setbacks have come inside the division’s top 10.
A matchup with Jacoby shows how much the promotion values Julius Walker. “Juice Box” has the tools — including a chin that’s been money so far — to dominate this division as a hyper-athletic, 6’4″ wrestle-and-box clinch specialist. I bet him in both of his first two appearances, but the second — as the only one who didn’t finish Rafael Cerqueira in the Brazilian’s brief career — was the most concerning. Walker was grasping for legs late to survive in Round 3.
That sort of performance should spell disaster against a veteran like Jacoby. Though the favorite’s durability isn’t quite perfect, Walker has yet to put out two foes with plenty of (T)KO setbacks, and Jacoby hasn’t allowed multiple takedowns in 14 of his 17 starts. Walker might land a couple, but his 43% striking D was in grave danger against Cerqueira. It’s tough to fight 15 minutes in such an exhausting way and avoid that damage against ranked competition.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I understand Walker love this week because I’m very high on him as a prospect myself, but his striking can’t have come far enough since August to compete with Jacoby. Jacoby’s decision prop (+250) is probably undervalued considering consecutive (T)KOs and an average knockdown rate (0.71 KD%).
Jean Matsumoto vs. Farid Basharat
Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Matsumoto | 38.55% | 9.06% | 1.19% | 7.87% | 29.48% |
| F. Basharat | 61.45% | 11.16% | 0.77% | 10.39% | 50.29% |
Two extremely skilled mixed martial artists will duel here.
Farid Basharat is carrying the family name with a 5-0 record that just survived a tight battle with Chris Gutierrez. It, perhaps, didn’t have to be that tight if he shot more than the two (successful) takedowns that have easily downed Gutierrez in other matchups. Nonetheless, that was a validation of skill opposite one of the division’s best strikers. Unlike his brother, you can’t really poke a hole in his SSR (+1.58) and takedown accuracy (47%) when he chooses to shoot.
It’s interesting that he’ll meet a descending Jean Matsumoto when the promotion would have been thought to push both of these dudes. Matsumoto failed to do what David Martinez did and snatch Rob Font’s ranking, and the Brazilian’s “rebound” fight was a split decision against Miles Johns that went his way.
This fight feels like it’s destined to be a sweaty, tight affair that is -500 to go the distance. I can’t believe this moneyline for Basharat with that the case. I’m not crazy far away from the American Top Team product’s decision prop (-135), but it still speaks to how expensive it is relative to Matsumoto’s (+350) in a fight decided by a couple moments.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Think the model’s read is dead on here. Matsumoto is likely the value side in a tight fight. I love the Brazilian’s point spread (-135) at +3.5, but I’ll ladder his decision prop (+350) and split decision prop (+1000) behind it.
Michal Oleksiejczuk vs. Marc-Andre Barriault
Middleweight (185 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Oleksiejczuk | 65.12% | 37.06% | 34.11% | 2.95% | 28.06% |
| Barriault | 34.88% | 19.36% | 9.16% | 10.20% | 15.52% |
These are fights where failing to throw my model away probably will do damage to my wallet.
Michal Oleksiejczuk isn’t close to the same fighter that was a complete liability on the ground earlier in his career — or the one that never broke through at 205 pounds. At middleweight, “Hussar” has won consecutive fights stuffing all three takedown attempts faced since his move to the Fighting Nerds. His brother, Cezary, isn’t a bad training partner in this same division when the younger Polish entrant just polished off a responsible decision win over Cesar Almeida in December.
This is clearly a spot the UFC would prefer he advance past Marc-Andre Barriault. For such a reliable veteran with quality moments, it’s a bit surprising that “Powerbar” has a disappointing 6-9 record with the promotion overall. We saw his chin give way in an early loss to Dustin Stoltzfus, and he was a heavy bag opposite Shara Magomedov — but survived — last July.
Oleksiejczuk’s 1.64 KD% is one of the largest you’ll find in UFC for a guy with 10+ fights into the rankings. He’s always had massive pop in his hands, and Barriault’s so-so striking defense (50%) and fading chin seem like a ripe target.
My model will fall behind on Oleksiejczuk for the rest of his career after the bumpy start, and this isn’t a spot where I’m getting in the way.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: The model won’t really trust Oleksiejczuk’s grappling improvements until he takes out a good one, so I can’t trust it here. It’s worth mentioning the Polish favorite’s knockouts have either come in Round 1 (+125) or not at all historically, which helps make the angle more palatable.
Jailton Almeida vs. Rizvan Kuniev
Heavyweight (265 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Almeida | Eligible |
| Kuniev | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
My co-host, Matty, is a gambling savant. He stated it well that this could be a dream betting spot for Jailton Almeida years from now.
“Malhadinho” is still not lost on anyone as a dark horse contender at heavyweight. The former 205er’s takedown (6.66 landed per 15 minutes) and submission (2.0 attempts per 15) volume have drowned heavyweights that even fancy themselves as competent grapplers by the division’s standard like Alexandr Romanov and Serghei Spivac. The Brazilian is simply built different.
However, that “sub or bust” mentality can produce an ugly result. Curtis Blaydes’ violent elbows, Derrick Lewis’ raw strength, and Alexander Volkov’s shiny new black belt proved that. What does Rizvan Kuniev offer?
Well, Kuniev’s 90% takedown D through a date with Blaydes — and two Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) appearances — is a good start. The former PFL combatant is a wrestler by trade with a +2.00 SSR that implies he might have more success should he keep things at distance.
Ultimately, Kuniev labored to a lucky decision against Blaydes, though, and had to fight on DWCS twice for a reason. Throwing him into shark-infested waters against a top-five contender seems insane. Even on the feet, Almeida’s speed, athleticism, and cardio seem to be on a totally different plane.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Almeida’s tentativeness against Volkov was due to fear of him getting up and inflicting major damage. Conversely, Kuniev lives in these sloppy, clinch grinds, so I expect the lighting-quick Brazilian to catch him laboring into something at a certain point. I like a R2/R3 angle at the submission given the cardio gap.
Amir Albazi vs. Kyoji Horiguchi
Flyweight (125 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Albazi | 34.70% | 22.67% | 7.65% | 15.02% | 12.03% |
| Horiguchi | 65.30% | 18.75% | 14.34% | 4.41% | 46.55% |
I’d never have believed that Kyoji Horiguchi would be circled as the dark horse of flyweight in 2026 after the final bell against Demetrious Johnson in 2015, but that’s how special “Mighty Mouse” was in his prime.
Horiguchi was a casualty of UFC eliminating its 125-pound division over a decade ago and just found his way back from RIZIN in emphatic fashion. Against Dagestan’s Tagir Ulanbekov, “Karate Kid” pitched a shutout. He outlanded Ulanbekov 49 to 6 in significant strikes, dropped him twice, and used his footwork to only allow two total takedown attempts. Horiguchi believes he’s on track for the title, and Amir Albazi seems like a showcase to keep that dream intact.
Albazi seemed to be in Horiguchi’s position to start 2023, but inactivity has marred what has also been a two-fight streak of unimpressive efforts. Most believe he robbed Kai Kara-France blind, and Brandon Moreno looked like he was easily sparring the Egyptian fighter in Canada last year.
On principle, it feels like we’re buying Horiguchi at a supreme high when Ulanbekov was rumored to have had a myriad of weight-cutting issues before that bout. That comes at the same time that Albazi’s stock hasn’t ever been lower in UFC. However, Horiguchi has long been one of the division’s most wise technicians, and Albazi’s medicore standup (-0.99 SSR) just doesn’t seem to give him much of a pulse to do anything in this fight but stall as much of it as possible.
In this current era of UFC, that probably doesn’t lead to actually winning.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I’ve got no interest siding with a grappler that will be holding on for dear life in 2026, but Horiguchi’s physical limitations probably aren’t baked enough into the betting line. This is a pass for me.
Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira
Five-Round Main Event – Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Bautista | 50.91% | 25.43% | 13.54% | 11.89% | 25.48% |
| Oliveira | 49.09% | 25.89% | 17.74% | 8.16% | 23.20% |
Of all the possible fights around the 10th spot in the rankings to debut the Meta Apex on Paramount+, the promotion chose this one. Why?
I think it’s because they believe Vinicius Oliveira is a budding star. “Lok Dog” is an gigantic, athletic freak that probably wouldn’t be entirely out of place at lightweight, and he’s used relentless forward pressure to walk down and wilt Ricky Simon, Said Nurmagomedov, and Kyler Phillips in consecutive fights. This was after a highlight for the ages in 2024 against Bernardo Sopaj.
Oliveira’s +2.39 SSR against such a vaunted stretch of opposition deserves love, and his takedown accuracy (50%) has been solid when he’s needed to change it up. Really, the question is how he survives over the course of 25 minutes against a very game Mario Bautista.
Once one of the most underrated fighters in the division, “Super” Mario has gotten his flowers after dropping Umar Nurmagomedov, dismantling Patchy Mix, and stalling Jose Aldo. Bautista is extremely well-rounded as his high-volume boxing (5.58 significant strikes per minute) intersects three UFC wins via submission.
Bautista, though, hasn’t faced something like Oliveira in a while. In addition to Lok Dog’s somewhat-dangerous hands (0.60 KD%), the Brazilian also has a takedown threat that has stifled not only Bautista (54% takedown D) but also his MMA Lab teammate in this division, Sean O’Malley.
My model has this fight’s verdict pretty close because, when fresh, it’s very easy to see Oliveira dictating the action. His odds should be shorter than this because banking on Bautista having a significant cardio edge in both fighter’s first five-round fight is a bit of a reckless process.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I like the model’s close verdict here. Bautista’s resume really isn’t that strong considering the Umar fight was a blowout, and Oliveira is a physical force that can wrestle, and he — to this point — has not waned late in fights. I can easily see the Brazilian banking three rounds or finding a chin I’m a tiny bit worried hasn’t been tested since Trevin Jones found the button.
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