For an Apex card, UFC has really cooked this week with top-shelf prospects, ranked matchups, and — in some cases — rematches with bad blood.
If you’re new here, this is my betting primer. I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model that seeks to answer the question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.
Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’m going to be right; I just want to get it right, and you’ll get my best effort every week.
I invite you to join the fan club of Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed it or would rather read on Friday at the office, I’ve got you.
From a betting perspective, let’s preview UFC Vegas 114: Emmett vs. Vallejos, taking place at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.
UFC Vegas 114: Emmett vs. Vallejos Betting Picks and Props
Piera Rodriguez vs. Sam Hughes
Women’s Strawweight (115 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Rodriguez | 50.12% | 10.14% | 7.95% | 2.19% | 39.98% |
| Hughes | 49.88% | 8.77% | 2.18% | 6.60% | 41.11% |
I’m not sure how I blocked Piera Rodriguez and Sam Hughes‘ first fight in 2022 from my memory, but the rematch no one asked for is upon us.
“La Fiera” was seen as the rising prospect and closed in the -180ish range for a fight where she basically looked the number. Rodriguez landed 5 of 11 takedown attempts and posted a +14 striking differential. That fight led to an eventual submission loss to Gillian Robertson, which has left her on the outside of the rankings, but Rodriguez’s takedown offense (54% accuracy) has been both voluminous and efficient, allowing her to largely dominate Ariane Carnelossi, Josefine Knutsson, and Ketlen Souza. The former, Carnelossi, just acted her way out of the result.
Perhaps that is the story again here for “Sampage”, who has become a cult hero of this 115-pound division with a “never say die” attitude. She’s found a niche of weaponizing her cardio in a division where most, including Rodriguez, cut quite a bit of weight. After a dismal 2-4 start in UFC that made you wonder if the axe was coming, Hughes’ striking success rate (+0.10 SSR) has nearly fully recovered after rallies against Jacqueline Amorim, Viktoriia Dudakova, and others.
I think it’s a mammoth red flag that Rodriguez, a ground-oriented fighter, just went through arguably the three worst grapplers on the strawweight roster and still hasn’t found an official submission attempt — this coming after Robertson made light work of her. While Hughes wins on the cards a majority of the time, could Hughes’ recent offense on the ground surface after setting a grueling pace?
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: My model has Hughes’ submission prop at +1400, meaning it has left value range on paper, but the Rodriguez red flag is a big one. Sam’s Round 3 sub (+5,000) has a maximum price tag at some books, and it’s just not a maximum price situation.
Elijah Smith vs. SuYoung You
Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Smith | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
| You | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
I think we’ve got a lot to learn about both of these 135ers.
Elijah Smith is coming out of a position you usually want to fade in betting markets. Smith’s slam knockout of Toshiomi Kazama — a non-UFC-level fighter — was a highlight for the ages, but it was also the second undersized foe he’s drawn in three octagon trips. “Swift” was in a life-and-death war when facing a true bantamweight, Vince Morales, in February 2025, and I’ve got defensive concerns in terms of both striking (53%) and takedown (43%) accuracy allowed.
Meanwhile, SuYoung You is trying to prove the haters (it’s me) wrong about Road to UFC (RTU) and the entry point’s long-term promotional viability. You have to hand it to him at this point that, even through a mediocre level of competition, he’s sort of gone into his opponents’ den and bested them. AJ Cunningham’s specialty was grappling, and he posted 7:54 in control time against him. Xiao Long is dangerous in the standup, and he defended 69% of Long’s strikes.
Smith is a true weight bully who will tower over plenty of 135ers, and that’s the case with “Yoo Jitsu”, as well. I just can’t help but trust the defensive fundamentals the Korean fighter has shown thus far. Plus, I don’t think we haven’t even really seen the aspect of his game from the regional scene that earned him his nickname.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I played You at +170 and got the line move incorrect. I still think he’s the more polished, technical fighter with better boxing and grappling upside than Tau, who kept things competitive. I just don’t think the underdog has much finishing equity against a superb athlete.
Bia Mesquita vs. Montse Rendon
Women’s Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Mesquita | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
| Rendon | Eligible |
Even as a numbers guy, numbers can lie. Montse Rendon‘s 100% takedown defense is probably a fib.
Floating around the peripheral roster bubble of UFC’s worst division, Rendon has stuffed six total takedowns from Alice Pereira and Tamires Vidal — both of whom prefer to strike with knockout power. Here comes a changeup: 10-time IBJJF world champion Bia Mesquita.
Mesquita’s entry into UFC reminds me of Kayla Harrison’s, where it’s abundantly obvious that a high-level credential in one element of MMA can absolutely crack the top five of the division. Mesquita flat-out bullied Irina Alekseeva in her UFC debut last fall to score a second-round submission where, frankly, she played with her food.
Though questions about “Lady GOAT” at striking distance are probably fair, it’s not like Rendon has been a world-beater in that category. Rendon has a -0.33 SSR and hasn’t dropped any of her three foes.
Because of the ground game credentials, you could include Mesquita on a short list of interesting fights for Harrison. Rendon’s entry-level takedown defense has been fine, so there is an unlikely path for her to defend the shots and win on the cards, but the underdog is probably cooked if she’s resigned to bottom position at any point in this fight.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Rendon’s 100% career decision rate against cans makes it hard to pinpoint her exact weaknesses, but Mesquita landed 34 ground strikes in her debut. This should not be as wide a gap between submission (+100) and knockout (+550) as it is.
Hecher Sosa vs. Luan Lucerda
Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Sosa | Ineligible – UFC Debut |
| Lucerda | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
There weren’t any better stories on Season 9 of Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) than Hecher Sosa, who won a contract two days after his father passed.
Fixating on that, though, would do a disservice to his performance against a top-shelf prospect in Macksom Lee, who the UFC believed they were handing a deal at 9-0 from LFA. Sosa landed 4 of 11 takedowns, posted 10:53 in control time, and nearly locked up a pair of subs. His striking accuracy (50%) and defense (55%) made the grade against the lanky Brazilian, too.
I’d expect he’ll try his hand at distance against Luan Lacerda, who outdueled Saimon Oliveira in a battle of winless prospects last October. He had previously been finished at distance by Da’Mon Blackshear and, as a submission specialist, failed to tap Cody Stamann. Both of those results ain’t great, but training at Nova Uniao inspires hope for improvements.
As we saw last week with Rafael Tobias and Luke Fernandez, DWCS can be a farce, and it’s possible Sosa’s performance was an out-of-body experience, given the so-so competition he’s faced to this point. However, Lacerda is an extremely flawed, beatable opponent if you can navigate his crafty submissions, and Sosa hasn’t been tapped in 15 pro fights.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I was getting cold feet about betting this fight until I saw Lacerda’s submission prop at +650. That’s a mammoth number for the only way he wins — and a statement that oddsmakers believe Sosa’s defense is elite. I love the Spaniard’s knockout or decision prop (-125).
Manoel Sousa vs. Bolaji Oki
Lightweight (155 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Sousa | Ineligible – UFC Debut |
| Oki | Eligible |
Most DWCS winners come off the show with momentum at a sky-high place, but Manoel Sousa is probably hoping to show better.
Sousa was in the process of getting beaten via “lay and pray” before a third-round comeback for the ages as his opponent, Cristian Perez, fatigued. The Brazilian power puncher didn’t get much of a chance to show what had him positioned as a -300 favorite, but he still posted a +1.92 SSR in minimal distance time. UFC — likely intentionally — gave him a chance to stand and bang here with Bolaji Oki.
Oki’s forays into grappling have been a disaster; he was tapped by Chris Duncan and Mason Jones for both fighters’ first UFC wins via submission. Those were also his two fights with organic lightweights, as his two other promotional appearances came against 145ers on short notice, Timmy Cuamba and Michael Aswell. He went to a decision with both fighters.
As a result, I just don’t have a good feel for what the Belgian fighter brings to the table. If “power” is the selling point, a 0.68% knockdown rate (KD%) isn’t convincing. He’ll have a size advantage here, but it might not translate into a power edge.
I’m not leaping to parlay Sousa at -310, but he went the distance with PFL’s Archie Colgan — easily the toughest opponent either of these two has faced. Oki hasn’t exactly shone in limited action, but it’s not crazy to think that the fact he’s run into so many blown-up featherweights could be the reason he’s still on the roster.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I got under 2.5 rounds at -125 on Wednesday, and I think it’s still playable at -134. All of Oki’s fights against real lightweights ended inside eight minutes, and his power, Sousa’s power, and a little bit of submission danger from the Brazilian are all ways this one can end with a stoppage.
Chris Curtis vs. Myktybek Orolbai
Welterweight (170 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Curtis | 33.69% | 5.75% | 4.75% | 0.99% | 27.94% |
| Orolbai | 66.31% | 34.75% | 17.82% | 16.93% | 31.56% |
It’s not often a former lightweight faces consecutive former 185ers, but that’s the case for Myktybek Orolbai in this matchup with Chris Curtis.
The Kyrgyz fighter made a name for himself quickly by submitting Uros Medic on short notice, but weight issues in a win over Elves Brener and endurance issues in a loss to Mateusz Rebecki always meant 170 pounds might have been his permanent home. Orolbai lands 5.48 takedowns per 15 minutes as a show of wrestling strength, but his 50% striking D led to a mangled appearance against Rebecki. In his last bout, he starched an especially frail-looking Jack Hermansson to spoil the veteran’s first cut to this weight class.
Curtis’ debut at 170 pounds went better. He emerged with a +5 striking differential and a split decision over Max Griffin, who has — notably — lost three of four. “The Action Man” has smooth boxing and some of the best entry-level takedown D in UFC, but he’s been frustrated, at times, by split decisions that haven’t gone his way because he’s taken too much damage (6.19 significant strikes absorbed per minute) early.
Griffin did not attempt to take Curtis to the ground, which seems to be the source of the drama in this matchup. If Curtis is able to stay upright, he’s got a toolkit of uppercuts, jabs, and other weapons that Rebecki used to dismantle Orolbai (-0.07 SSR).
Considering Curtis’s size advantage and 82% takedown D, this seems a lot like Curtis’s matchups with Brendan Allen, Rodolfo Vieira, and Phil Hawes. He’s 3-1 overall in those fights and was an injury away from 4-0. Though my model does pay plenty of respect to Orolbai’s zero pro losses via finish, this number still feels disrespectful.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I’ve done well in recent weeks avoiding “value losers”, but sign me up for Chris Curtis’ decision prop (+420). Model has it +258, and you’ll want an “Action Man” ticket in hand if he’s providing any resistance from Orolbai’s takedowns.
Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders
Middleweight (185 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Tavares | 44.36% | 11.01% | 8.86% | 2.15% | 33.35% |
| Anders | 55.64% | 25.47% | 21.78% | 3.69% | 30.16% |
It took until Thursday, but the number finally started to shift this way. The model stays cooking regarding line moves.
When you look at Brad Tavares‘ recent run in UFC, there’s just nothing worthy of laying chalk. His last knockout came in 2018, and he’s 4-7 since that bout. The Hawaiian’s never had much of a changeup from his distance game, which has become increasingly low-volume (3.42 significant strikes landed per minute) and inaccurate (43%) of late. Being a knockout victim of Robert Bryzcek, a one-dimensional boxer, was probably rock bottom.
Still, a fight between 38-year-olds brings some volatility to it, and Tavares’ team at Xtreme Couture will give him the chance to dispatch Eryk Anders.
Anders has outperformed most expectations to hang onto the roster this long; he dispatched Chris Weidman by second-round (T)KO in a battle of “washed” older guys last year. However, Anders’ foray near the top of the rankings did not go well, as Christian Leroy Duncan made a first-round statement on home soil. That fight is beyond Anders’ talent at this stage, but he’s still a powerful puncher (0.89 KD%) with a grappling craft he’s worked hard to improve since his last submission loss in 2021.
Bryzcek was a lesser-known commodity than Anders in terms of one-shot power, and he eventually broke the favorite’s chin despite a slow start. Perhaps it’s because Tavares reached a higher peak in UFC, but Anders is 3-3 since the start of 2022. Tavares is 2-5. I think the former Alabama linebacker has actually aged significantly better.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Is the model moving lines? I gave out Anders at +115 on Wednesday’s show, and this thing has skyrocketed to a pick ’em like Dober. It’s actually a similar dynamic to that same fight, where Tavares (like Michael Johnson) should win more minutes, but Anders has the power and grappling upside to shift key moments. Anders’ knockout prop (+420) is also insane given Tavares’ mounting attrition.
Charles Johnson vs. Bruno Silva
Flyweight (125 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Johnson | 61.77% | 29.93% | 20.05% | 9.88% | 31.84% |
| Silva | 38.23% | 16.84% | 10.43% | 6.40% | 21.40% |
There’s no one I hate having money on in UFC more than Bruno Silva.
“Bulldog” has the shortest reach in the flyweight rankings (65″) and was little brother’d by Joshua Van and Manel Kape before a “sigh of relief” sort of effort to dispatch HyunSung Park in a fight that said more about Park. The Brazilian has increasingly had a harder time taking damage with scar tissue showing against Van, Kape, and Cody Durden. However, he just has these fight-changing moments behind a 1.75 KD% and 0.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes, which can keep him in fights when things aren’t going well.
I don’t think anyone is writing him off entirely against Charles Johnson. “Inner G” continued his usual up-and-down trajectory with a first career loss via finish against Alex Perez at UFC 324 in January. The long, athletic American has knockout wins over championship-level prospects like Van and Lone’er Kavanaugh, but he’s also lost comfortably to Perez, Durden, and Ode Osbourne. It’s a frustrating roller coaster for fans.
The narrative around this fight will be Johnson’s quick turnaround after his last loss, but he’s positioned at -178 after completely selling parlays less than two months ago. With how poorly Silva wore down against Van and Kape, I actually like the number — especially for a finish. Johnson has proven he’s not out of place striking at that championship level, and my model warns not to forget about his long limbs in grappling situations.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I typically love to buy fighters at the same odds range they just disappointed from. Johnson did against a better fighter, but Silva isn’t nearly as technical as Perez despite the additional power. I think his jab gets to work early, and he finds a late finish. While I’m not sprinkling the longshot submission, the model prefers “Inner G” via stoppage rather than just knockout.
Vitor Petrino vs. Steven Asplund
Heavyweight (265 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Petrino | Eligible |
| Asplund | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
We learned this week that even the oddsmakers might not know what kinesiology tape does. No, Vitor Petrino doesn’t have a broken hand just from having the tape on his hand earlier in camp. Even if he did, I’m not entirely certain it would in this “Pros vs. Joes” betting spot of the century.
I get the public’s love for Steven Asplund in this spot. Every time the Minnesotan opens his mouth, it’s extremely apparent that the relatable, budding star from Season 9 of DWCS is going to be a fan-favorite. His flabby physique comes with a volume-oriented, hands-only approach that drowned Sean Sharaf in a friendly first matchup. His DWCS opponent, Anthony Guarascio, was also knocked out again regionally since his debut.
However, Petrino is a former 205-pound winner inside the rankings — in a much more skilled division. He showed levels to this game versus Austen Lane with a first-round tap last fall in Rio. He also flattened wrestling standout Thomas Petersen, bringing his UFC finish total to five in nine appearances.
With the right gameplan, I just don’t think this fight can possibly be close. Asplund’s pro career began in 2022 after Petrino beat Rodolfo Bellato — a multi-time UFC winner — on DWCS. These two are on totally different grappling levels, which became apparent as Asplund was choked out by Denzel Freeman (0-2 UFC) in 2024. Those reps just haven’t come yet for the American, who doesn’t even have a very diverse array of attacks on the feet, either.
Beyond that, I just think Asplund’s win over Sharaf is cosmetic and trivial. Lest we forget, Junior Tafa dispatched Sharaf in roughly the same time frame.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I can’t mentally block out the fact that a former ranked light heavyweight is facing a guy whose best win is Sean Sharaf. There’s this narrative that Petrino will be in trouble if he doesn’t grapple immediately, but I honestly think he could starch Asplund at distance, too. He was beating Dustin Jacoby until the veteran’s late haymaker.
Marwan Rahiki vs. Harry Hardwick
Featherweight (145 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Rahiki | Ineligible – UFC Debut |
| Hardwick | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
Marwan Rahiki was part of one of the craziest DWCS fights ever, which led to an all-action spot on this main card.
In under eight minutes, he and Ananias Mulumba combined for 4 knockdowns (!) and 2 submission attempts in a fight where both were on the ropes. Frankly, there were two early sequences that could have led to a Rahiki loss by (T)KO with a different referee, but he powered through the opportunity, Mulumba was fatigued, and the Aussie used surgical elbows to find the finish in Round 2.
You can look at that one of two ways. That was a serious show of heart, but it was also a showcase of the 23-year-old’s inexperience and poor head defense that got him in trouble in the first place as he enters his official UFC debut opposite Harry Hardwick.
Hardwick left his official UFC debut — up at 155 pounds — in a wheelchair due to vicious leg kicks from Kaue Fernandes. That was the second time in three fights that Fernandes’ primary weapon led to an early finish. The former Cage Warriors champion at 145 pounds might consider this his real debut, and his signature regional attributes included his boxing, opportunistic submission game, and overwhelming pace.
So many DWCS fighters flop after a flawless performance on the show. You’re really making an assumption about Mulumba, who came from Congo and didn’t fight for a notable promotion, to put Rahiki in the -300 range against an experienced veteran despite seeing his shortcomings in real time.
Hardwick doesn’t have Mulumba’s power, but he’s got a much better gas tank and better defensive fundamentals. UFC is trying to give Rahiki a setup spot here, but I just don’t think he has the talent to capitalize on it.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I am developing something called the “TikTok Phenomenon Fade”. Every chalk donkey handicapper this week is giving out Rahiki as their “lock” because of Hardwick’s poor debut, but that was up in weight against a guy who could fight at 170. I have more confidence that Hardwick is a better fighter than we last saw than I do in Rahiki, so I played his moneyline (+230).
Jose Delgado vs. Andre Fili
Featherweight (145 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Delgado | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
| Fili | Eligible |
You don’t always have to win to see your stock increase in UFC. Jose Delgado proved he belongs with his performance against Nathaniel Wood.
Frankly, the Fight Ready product was too eager for its own good, exhausting his gas tank in an attempt to finish Wood during a dominant Round 1. He slowed as the veteran built momentum, allowing the Englishman to escape with a 29-28 win despite a toss-up final round. Regardless, dropping Wood early and posting a +35 striking differential overall against a fighter I rate highly was impressive.
Delgado is a lengthy hurricane of knees and elbows, varying his weapons with beautiful precision. Not many are going to want to stand with this guy, so his takedown D (60%) should prove paramount as he advances up the rankings. Andre Fili is a lateral move from Wood to start.
Last time out, “Touchy” got a split decision nod over Christian Rodriguez — and was fortunate to do so. A loss there would have meant a 3-6 skid, and he has just one unanimous win since the COVID break — an early knockout of Lucas Almeida. Instead, Fili’s 51% striking D proved to be a problem as he got pieced up by Wood, Melquizael Costa, and Dan Ige — a friend who flattened him inside five minutes.
At 35, attrition is mounting for the veteran, and Delgado has a variety of weapons to put you out in one shot. If this fight’s extended, I’m not sure the underdog is a lock to be winning it, either. While Fili does have some wrestling chops to potentially floor Delgado at times, the Arizonan lands 4.35 more significant strikes per minute. That’s a lot of per-minute offense to overcome in a “damage over control” era of MMA scoring.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: You’re worried about an Andre Fili ticket early, middle, and late. Really, I don’t know how Fili wins here other than a grimy split decision or exploiting a wrestling hole that Nathaniel Wood couldn’t budge. I’m playing Delgado by early knockout.
Oumar Sy vs. Ion Cutelaba
Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Cutelaba | 33.27% | 6.20% | 3.99% | 2.20% | 27.07% |
| Sy | 66.73% | 28.34% | 16.13% | 12.21% | 38.39% |
Ion Cutelaba‘s recent improvements will be put to a stress test here.
Under the tutelage of Eric Nicksick at Xtreme Couture, Cutelaba has become a more technical, measured version of “The Hulk” who has — shockingly — gone the full distance in three of his last four. However, those fights against Philipe Lins, Ivan Erslan, and Modestas Bukauskas make you wonder whether Cutelaba’s actually underperforming and being too patient.
Pace and aggression could be a deciding factor in this fight with Oumar Sy. The uber-talented Frenchman’s unwillingness to let his hands go cost him an early shot at the rankings against Alonzo Menifield, but he rebounded with a first-round (T)KO of Brendson Ribeiro. Sy’s +1.95 SSR is impressive when it’s pretty well-known that he can outgrapple most of this light heavyweight division.
Though my co-host loves Sy’s submission prop here, it’s probably just best to back the favorite to win. Cutelaba is one of those fighters where his 47% striking D and poor historical results defending submissions can pop up at any time. But given Sy’s phenomenal defensive metrics, it seems Cutelaba’s path to victory would be a low-volume fight that finds the scorecards, and Oumar hasn’t minded a patient fight in two prior trips to the cage.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: While respecting the model’s verdict on Sy’s decision prop (+320), ask me how much I trust that Cutelaba doesn’t do something dumb over the course of 15 minutes. The model giving Sy at least a 10% better chance to win via all three methods shows how much he should be ahead wherever the fight goes.
Gillian Robertson vs. Amanada Lemos
Women’s Strawweight (115 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Lemos | 38.96% | 19.04% | 9.63% | 9.40% | 19.92% |
| Robertson | 61.04% | 25.80% | 6.62% | 19.19% | 35.24% |
A spot in the top five and the championship picture await Gillian Robertson if she’s able to win a sixth strawweight fight in seven tries.
“The Savage” is all over UFC record books as a rare finisher in the women’s divisions, but she’s in her physical prime at 30 with evolving standup and a ground game that is seemingly as dominant and ferocious as ever. She did what Virna Jandiroba, Mackenzie Dern, and several others couldn’t by finishing Marina Rodriguez on the ground last May.
This seems like a good matchup for her, given Amanda Lemos‘ takedown defense (64%). Lemos has surrendered 12 takedowns in her last five fights and is coming off a shutout loss against Tatiana Suarez, who is a very similar archetype of fighter. However, we did see Lemos flip the script on Dern and Iasmin Lucindo, landing meaningful damage to escape with a decision win despite the ground issues. Lemos’ BJJ defense is also outstanding; she proved that by going 25 minutes against Zhang Weili.
Tabatha Ricci laid the blueprint for beating Robertson. If you stuff the takedowns, she quickly becomes desperate and ineffective. I just don’t know if I trust that she’s corrected those issues well enough to lay -205, but I also don’t trust Lemos’ takedown defense at +164.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: While expecting Robertson to win on raw strength and takedown ability, Lemos’ +3.5 point spread (-135) is probably the best way to encapsulate moments of this fight where the Canadian may struggle. The model really doesn’t like anything in the prop market at these odds.
Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos
Five-Round Main Event — Featherweight (145 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | ITD | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Emmett | 31.00% | 8.40% | 6.42% | 1.98% | 22.60% |
| Vallejos | 69.00% | 27.15% | 24.39% | 2.75% | 41.86% |
Agenda-based matchmaking is in vogue these days, and this is a pretty shameless one. 41-year-old Josh Emmett has virtually no chance of beating Kevin Vallejos on hardware and intangibles alone — and that’s intentional.
Still, Emmett is a respectable veteran of the game who has lasted much longer than Ilia Topuria, Lerone Murphy, and others who have been in and around the title picture at 145 pounds. That’s especially the case against those who wish to stand with him, like Vallejos, a boxer who will almost certainly. Emmett’s most lopsided wins have been at the connection of a right hand (1.55 KD%), and his most lopsided losses, like against Youssef Zalal and Yair Rodriguez, have come defending submissions.
Argentina’s top prospect might have a sneaky ground game he’d like to show off, but he seems fairly intoxicated by hands that have led to a +1.07 SSR despite facing Jean Silva, Danny Silva, and Giga Chikadze in a brief UFC window. I doubted his knockout power (1.23 KD%) to my own peril against an aging, fragile Chikadze.
However, Emmett’s 60% striking defense is elite, and his ability to take damage is second to few considering the Topuria fight — even into his early 40s. Plus, this is Vallejos’ first five-round fight, so I actually think he will be conscious of early energy usage.
I’ve lobbied for Vallejos since before he was even in UFC. I’m aware he’s extremely talented, but he’s just 24 — and that is still a net negative. The aforementioned factors of this fight align with the model’s result; Emmett just hasn’t looked his age in the box score, and it wasn’t that long ago that Vallejos was in a competitive dogfight with both Silvas.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Vallejos is one of those fighters that you’ll probably want to just fade their last result in betting markets. He found a highlight in his last fight, and Emmett is a great candidate to stay safe and drag Vallejos past his power window. I’ll ladder Fight Starts Round 4 (-135), Vallejos R4/R5/Dec (+110), and Vallejos’ decision prop (+240) here.
🔍 Want to know more about each event? Visit homeoffight.com or any of our social media accounts for more articles, fighter interviews, and plenty of additional coverage.
💰 Want to get in on the action? Visit homeoffight.com/picks to tail all of the Home of Fight expert’s picks & bets each week!
