Credit Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Hello, Home of Fight fans. I’m trying something new.
I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.
Recently, I’ve added significant strike and takedown projections for Underdog and PrizePicks, as they’ve taken off in the MMA community. These are still in beta, but it’s something you can get for any fantasy sport in the world except UFC. I’m trying to change that.
As a reminder, my prelims betting primer is here on Home of Fight’s website. My UFC main card breakdowns will be at PrizePicks Playbook on Saturdays. Matty and I’s YouTube show is also a fun time with a little of both.
From a DFS perspective, here are my projections of median significant strikes and takedowns for model-eligible fighters UFC Vegas 116: Sterling vs. Zalal, taking place at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.
UFC Vegas 116: Sterling vs. Zalal Significant Strike Projections
NOTE: Only fights with two model-eligible fighters are included. You wouldn’t want the garbage data from smaller samples anyway.
| Fighter | Median Significant Strike Proj |
| Julia Polastri | 75.34 |
| Aljamain Sterling | 52.17 |
| Norma Dumont | 50.30 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 49.05 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 48.48 |
| Joselyne Edwards | 46.45 |
| Rafa Garcia | 46.44 |
| Talita Alencar | 42.47 |
| Youssef Zalal | 40.48 |
| Rodolfo Vieira | 36.62 |
| Cody Durden | 35.67 |
| Montel Jackson | 30.46 |
| Eric McConico | 29.81 |
| Jafel Filho | 20.74 |
Significant Strike Prop to Target in DFS
Alexander Hernandez Under 59.5 Significant Strikes
Even with the model expecting this fight to go the distance 62.5% of the time, Hernandez’s under stands out relative to props in DFS.
His historical issues with accuracy (40%) are one contributing factor, along with Rafa Garcia’s boxing, which has produced a quality striking defense of 61%. Rafa is undersized and can struggle to find the mark himself, but defense comes first.
Plus, the Mexican has shown a great willingness and ability to mix it up with his wrestling. He attempts 7.11 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands a decent clip of them (44%). Hernandez’s last five opponents had a takedown accuracy of 33% of worse, so it’s been a while since a grappling threat has been able to stall at all.
Though still in beta, the model’s median projection (48.48) for significant strikes would imply a 93.5% chance of an under if it’s correct. This moneyline is also trending Garcia’s way, suggesting he should have some success implementing his gameplan here.
You can take this prop down to 50.5 and still get value.
UFC Vegas 116: Sterling vs. Zalal Takedown Projections
NOTE: Only fights with two model-eligible fighters are included. You wouldn’t want the garbage data from smaller samples anyway.
| Fighter | Median Takedown Proj |
| Talita Alencar | 3.66 |
| Youssef Zalal | 3.42 |
| Aljamain Sterling | 3.11 |
| Rodolfo Vieira | 2.75 |
| Cody Durden | 2.08 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 1.82 |
| Rafa Garcia | 1.74 |
| Jafel Filho | 1.52 |
| Joselyne Edwards | 1.06 |
| Norma Dumont | 1.06 |
| Montel Jackson | 1.05 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 0.67 |
| Julia Polastri | 0.38 |
| Eric McConico | 0.00 |
Takedown Prop to Target in DFS
Rodolfo Vieira Over 1.5 Takedowns
The drama in this prop likely comes from Eric McConico’s ability to survive a takedown and top control from “The Black Belt Hunter”.
So far, McConico has defended 9 of the 14 takedown attempts he has faced from Baisangur Susurkaev and Cody Brundage, who also have a UFC via submission each. The MMA Lab product’s training with Jared Cannonier — so far — has resulted in zero pro losses via submission in 15 bouts.
Vieira, of course, is on a different level that even other grapplers haven’t survived. Yet, this fight is about a pick ’em at offshore books to go over 2.5 rounds, and I’ve got the fight projected to go the full distance 48.7% of the time myself.
Given a takedown projection of 2.75, the model implies a 71.3% chance that Vieira lands at least 2 takedowns. The only way I don’t see it happening is an extremely quick finish — and it’s likely the Brazilian scoring it, per his historical durability.
A payout of 0.65x or greater works as long as this line doesn’t get bumped to 2.5 takedowns.
🔍 Want to know more about each event? Visit homeoffight.com or any of our social media accounts for more articles, fighter interviews, and plenty of additional coverage.
💰 Want to get in on the action? Visit homeoffight.com/picks to tail all of the Home of Fight expert’s picks & bets each week!
