If you’re new here, this is my prelim betting primer for UFC Vegas 116. The main card breakdowns will be available in the PrizePicks Playbook on Saturday.
I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.
Though the results aren’t linear, I track every pick. I’m going to have some really great stretches — and some really frigid ones. I’ll tweak and adjust the model periodically. I’m not saying I’ll be right; I just want to get it right, and I’ll give you my best effort every week.
I invite you to join the fan club for Matty and I’s YouTube show, but if you missed it or would rather read, I’ve got you covered.
From a betting perspective, let’s preview the prelims for UFC Vegas 116: Sterling vs. Zalal, taking place at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.
UFC Vegas 116: Sterling vs. Zalal Prelim Betting Picks and Props
Talita Alencar vs. Julia Polastri
Women’s Strawweight (115 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | Win By Finish | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Alencar | 48.78% | 13.23% | 0.61% | 12.62% | 35.55% |
| Polastri | 51.22% | 10.91% | 3.42% | 7.49% | 40.31% |
5’1″ Talita Alencar has defied the odds to put together a three-fight win streak, and the lawless part of strawweight outside the rankings can’t make it crazy to potentially be four in a row. Alencar is a high-volume takedown threat (11.62 takedown attempts per 15 minutes) who seems to have corrected her cardio since an unsuccessful bid on Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS).
“Problem Child” is also coming off her first UFC win by sub, and she’s the only active UFC fighter to have competed in the organization’s UFC BJJ promotion.
Grappling will have to be the order of the day against Julia Polastri, whose +1.00 striking success rate (SSR) resulted in a TKO of Karolina Kowalkiewicz in her last bout. I still have reservations about her loss to Josefine Knutsson with a -60 striking differential, which has aged like milk. She also allowed 9 total takedowns to Loopy Godinez and Jasmine Jasudavicius.
Alencar is much smaller than those ladies, and this fight is pretty binary. If Alencar can secure takedowns, she’s got a quality top game with submission danger. If she can’t, another dominant Polastri showing has to be on the table.
The odds are just too heavily weighted in one direction when weighing those probabilities.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Alencar has a way of dirtying up fights and is probably favored to floor Polastri and win Round 1. I’m also a doubter that Polastri’s late-finish props are an MMA betting community stimulus check — as many seem to think. I played a split decision (+500) and Alencar to win it (+800).
Max Griffin vs. Victor Valenzuela
Welterweight (170 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Griffin | Eligible |
| Valenzuela | Ineligible – UFC Debut |
We are in an Apex bizarro world with this one.
Max Griffin, an 18-fight UFC veteran, sits as an underdog to Victor Valenzuela, who was blasted out of his DWCS audition. It’s really not that simple, though.
“Pain” Griffin is now 38 and has lost three of his last four, but none of the setbacks — Chris Curtis, Michael Chiesa, and Michael Morales — age particularly poorly. He’s managed a +0.06 SSR despite the losing record and has been notoriously tough to sub; Chiesa was the only fighter to do so.
Valenzuela is an athletic, undersized welterweight from MMA Masters in Miami. “Psicosis” was forgiven for his DWCS effort after knocking out UFC alum Yusaku Kinoshita (0-3 UFC) on the regional scene. On the numbers, he actually won the first round on DWCS against a frightening, imposing Michael Oliveira, too.
Griffin’s ceiling in this fight seems to be grinding out a decision. He last dropped a fighter in October 2022 and has never been a pronounced sub threat. This number isn’t wide enough to represent what is probably a substantial athletic gap between these two athletes — even if “Pain” has the experience edge.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: As the week went on, Valenzuela’s dipping moneyline (-130) seems fine. Griffin is just particularly toothless at this stage, and taking the first round from Oliveira on DWCS could age like wine. I played R3/DEC (+150) for the Chilean.
Francis Marshall vs. Lucas Brennan
Lightweight (155 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Marshall | Eligible |
| Brennan | Ineligible – UFC Debut |
Add this to the latest “WTF” last-minute matchups that we’ve seen at the Apex recently.
Francis Marshall is coming off a dominant win in Mexico over Erik Silva in February. He’s really found his identity at featherweight (even at 155 pounds this weekend) as a Grant Dawson dupe from the same gym, using his wrestling and grappling to suffocate Silva and Mairon Santos.
On paper, a Lucas Brennan matchup makes sense when the Syndicate MMA product is 8-0 by submission. I’m just perplexed at the timing and opponent when, just 24 months ago, Brennan dropped a fight against Dimitre Ivy in PFL, where Ivy — a regional journeyman — got the better of him at distance and standing in the clinch.
Marshall’s UFC career isn’t short on quality striking moments. He knocked out Marcelo Rojo, dropped Dennis Buzukja, and managed a -18 striking differential against an elite striker in Santos.
If the grappling is a wash, Marshall is the significantly better boxer with power in his hands. I don’t understand what this matchup proves for him, but a check is a check.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: Marshall’s knockout prop (+350) might be my favorite on the card. Brennan is a grappler, and Marshall has shown power in multiple UFC fights. I like an early bonk, and I assume these two are on totally different levels.
Jafel Filho vs. Cody Durden
Flyweight (135 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | Win By Finish | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Filho | 64.20% | 54.72% | 14.86% | 39.86% | 9.47% |
| Durden | 35.80% | 14.08% | 3.13% | 10.95% | 21.72% |
Even with this convincing result, I don’t think my model is up to speed on Cody Durden‘s decline.
At 35 in a division that isn’t kind to aging fighters, Durden’s footage from a 2023 mauling of Charles Johnson is unrecognizable compared to the labored, distraught effort he posted against Nyamjargal Tumendemberel earlier this year. Durden was stuffed on 5 of 8 takedown attempts by someone who struggled in that area…against Carlos Hernandez?
He’s now copied another Cody — of the Brundage variety — to enter these last-minute, no-risk matchups to save his contract. Jafel Filho is an insane task for him on a few days’ notice.
Filho nearly submitted Mohammed Mokaev in his debut, setting up a run in which he’s won three of four since then. Only Allan Nascimento got him in a tight decision. Filho’s voluminous sub game (2.2 attempts per 15 minutes) is an obvious concern for Durden, a four-time tapout victim in UFC, but Filho’s +0.23 SSR also looked good against the MMA Lab’s Clayton Carpenter.
In this case, my model is paying too much respect to Durden’s career-long stats. His path to victory is Filho spending too much time in the bottom position and somehow not getting caught by the Brazilian there, which doesn’t exactly mirror his recent results. The Floridian’s chin is also growing concerning.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: The numbers here are predictably awful, but Durden’s steep decline into Filho’s anaconda-like grip seems like an inevitability for Cody to get tapped. I played a Round 1 submission (+240) light just for fun.
Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Michelle Montague
Women’s Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| Bueno Silva | Eligible |
| Montague | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
Mayra Bueno Silva might be the UFC’s all-time example of “right place at the right time”.
“Sheetara” parlayed wins over Stephanie Egger, Lina Lansberg, and an ancient Holly Holm into a title shot, but she’s faded into irrelevance fighting the rest of the division that’s taken a BJJ class or two. Rocky Pennington exposed her extreme cardio issues from being undersized (5’6″) for the weight class, and she’s lost four in a row in lopsided fashion.
Bueno Silva seems “early submission or bust” again this weekend against a Kayla Harrison disciple. Michelle Montague is training closely at American Top Team with the champ of the division, and she looked like it in a debut win over Luana Carolina with five takedowns.
Montague’s striking is ugly, which gives Bueno Silva a path to victory she did not have against Pennington or Jacqueline Cavalcanti. Her pedestrian takedown D (63%) gets worse as the fight goes on, though, with virtually no actual ability to get back to her feet.
This betting line exists because it just doesn’t feel like someone training so closely with Harrison would get caught with a cheesy sub. That is the entire foundation of Bueno Silva’s UFC career. I’m not kidding; her one win by decision was due to two timely submission tries.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I just can’t trust the Bueno Silva win condition at this point. Montague is huge and strong for 135 pounds, and Mayra looked out to lunch against Macy Chiasson and Jasmine Jasudavicius. Montague could find a late finish at UFC Vegas 116 if she really guns for it.
Jackson McVey vs. Sedriques Dumas
Middleweight (185 pounds)
Model Results
| Fighter | Eligibility |
| McVey | Ineligible – Octagon Time |
| Dumas | Eligible |
The end of the line seems near for Sedriques Dumas.
Frankly, I’m stunned Dumas has hung around this long, considering the full-blown identity crisis that Josh Fremd handed him in a 2023 debut. The Floridian was a power-puncher on the regional scene that used a guillotine — never shown again — to stamp his entry into the dance, but Fremd rinsed him on the mat, and he’s yet to win by finish inside the octagon.
On paper, Dumas’ -0.41 SSR would probably be worse if he hadn’t found a way to use his athleticism to neutralize and stall opponents, but it only goes so far with several submission liabilities. Given the neck-snatching tendencies of Jackson McVey on the regional scene, Dumas’ path to victory is pretty unclear.
McVey was tapped by two black belts himself in UFC thus far, so I don’t think he’s an elite ground player. I do, though, put significant weight in his +24 striking differential against Zach Reese in his last bout. The MMA Lab product’s standup is likely his best asset despite 3 regional wins by sub.
Dumas hasn’t been efficient in flooring fights (31%), and he could face a significant threat if he tries. Ultimately, it’s easy to back one of these two fighters who has shown promise in doing anything. I think “The Moose” eventually breaks Dumas if the latter doesn’t use an accidental infraction to find the door.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I’m surprised that McVey’s late knockout props are so distant. His cardio seems fine, and he’s not a one-hitter quitter. Dumas can neutralize opponents for a while, but McVey will eventually get rolling downhill. It’s just a matter of whether he snatches the neck or keeps punching.
Rodolfo Vieira vs. Eric McConico
Middleweight (185 pounds) – Featured Prelim
Model Results
| Fighter | Win | Win By Finish | Win by KO | Win by Sub | Win by Dec |
| Vieira | 69.46% | 44.25% | 19.58% | 24.68% | 25.21% |
| McConico | 30.54% | 7.02% | 3.55% | 3.47% | 23.52% |
Eric McConico is in a featured prelim. No wonder I’ve been doing NFL Draft content this week.
To McConico’s credit, he’s significantly overperformed expectations since his debut (T)KO loss, where he basically didn’t do anything in one of the most notorious recent examples of stage fright. He was able to outlast a fading Cody Brundage by decision before hanging around until the third round against DWCS standout Baisangur Susurkaev.
The UFC has wanted McConico to lose all three bouts, so the apathy of this one against an aging Rodolfo Vieira is at least a step up from that perspective. Vieira, a six-time UFC winner, is just easily his most accomplished foe to date, too.
“The Black Belt Hunter” hasn’t delivered on his BJJ credentials against a higher level of competition, but five of his six wins have come via tap. He’s improved his striking considerably — even if a -0.83 SSR isn’t ideal. For context, it’s better than McConico’s (-0.93) after outlasting Tresean Gore for a win at striking range.
That’s sort of where the drama dies at UFC Vegas 116 to me. Despite getting destroyed by Bo Nickal last year, Vieira’s standup seems more trustworthy when a ground exchange could prove lethal in his direction. I think my model is reading into McConico’s 15 pro fights without a submission loss and shifting more weight into all 4 of his pro losses coming by knockout. That is quite a bit of attrition, given that the Brazilian has shown he can strike at this level.
SWAMI’S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS: I think Vieira’s submission prop (+200) is so distant here for a reason. I actually prefer the (T)KO at odds from either ground-and-pound or McConico’s chin giving way at distance. The model does think McConico has a chance if it goes all 15, but it’ll be a sweat to get there. I see him as a worse version of Gore.
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