UFC Vegas 117 DFS Projections: Significant Strikes and Takedown Props for Allen vs. Costa

Hello, Home of Fight fans. I’m trying something new.

I’ve been doing this since starting at numberFire.com in 2019. A few bettors really don’t like the way I break down fights. “Wikicapping” has a bad rap in UFC betting circles. However, I’ve had a goal for half a decade of being able to bet UFC the way I bet the NFL, NBA, MLB, or college football. Advanced stats exist (barely) in the UFC, and I’ve developed a predictive model to answer this question using data from fighters with at least 35 recorded octagon minutes or 5 completed fights.

Recently, I’ve added significant strike and takedown projections for Underdog and PrizePicks, as they’ve taken off in the MMA community. These are still in beta, but it’s something you can get for any fantasy sport in the world except UFC. I’m trying to change that.

As a reminder, my prelims betting primer is here on Home of Fight’s website on Fridays. My UFC main card breakdowns will be at PrizePicks Playbook on Saturdays. Matty and I’s YouTube show is also a fun time with a little of both.

From a DFS perspective, here are my projections of median significant strikes and takedowns for model-eligible fighters at UFC Vegas 117: Allen vs. Costa, taking place at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday. The fights start at 5:00 p.m. EST.

UFC Vegas 117: Allen vs. Costa Significant Strike Projections

NOTE: Only fights with two model-eligible fighters are included. You wouldn’t want the garbage data from smaller samples anyway.

Fighter	Median Sig Strike Proj
Alice Ardelean	79.01
Jacqueline Cavalcanti	77.65
Khaos Williams	63.09
Melquizael Costa	51.40
Luis Gurule	47.43
Daniel Santos	46.29
Arnold Allen	45.04
Daniel Barez	35.50
Ketlen Vieira	33.55
Nikolay Veretennikov	30.77
Dooho Choi	29.83
Polyana Viana	25.84
Andre Petroski	25.15
Cody Brundage	17.21

Significant Strike Prop to Target in DFS

Cody Brundage Under 23.5 Significant Strikes

Just about any way a matchup with Andre Petroski plays out should lean toward an “under” in DFS.

Five of Petroski’s last seven opponents haven’t crested 23 significant strikes, and both exceptions came in a decision. Cody Brundage managed just 2.07 significant strikes landed per minute in each of his last two decisions, and that was before a matchup with the Philadelphian wrestler. Donte Johnson and Eric McConico prefer to keep things at distance for the most part. Having a top game like Petroski, who smothers foes with 3.51 takedowns per 15 minutes, could lead to basically no significant strikes scored in later rounds of this fight.

We know Brundage’s archetype well at this stage. He’s a first-round bezerker with a 1.11% knockdown rate (KD%), but if the early finish doesn’t come, he melts both physically and mentally over the duration of a bout. At the same time, Petroski has gone out in the first seven minutes in each of his last three losses, so an early Brundage bonk could still produce an under in victory.

This median projection for Brundage implies a 92.8% chance he falls short of 23.5 significant strikes. That really doesn’t change whether this fight is incredibly quick or lasts its full duration.

UFC Vegas 117: Allen vs. Costa Takedown Projections

NOTE: Only fights with two model-eligible fighters are included. You wouldn’t want the garbage data from smaller samples anyway.

Fighter	Median Takedown Proj
Daniel Santos	2.37
Daniel Barez	1.90
Andre Petroski	1.65
Melquizael Costa	1.62
Alice Ardelean	0.92
Cody Brundage	0.79
Arnold Allen	0.77
Ketlen Vieira	0.74
Rodolfo Bellato	0.70
Dooho Choi	0.70
Nikolay Veretennikov	0.65
Luis Gurule	0.55
Polyana Viana	0.38
Modestas Bukauskas	0.08
Jacqueline Cavalcanti	0.00
Khaos Williams	0.00

Takedown Prop to Target in DFS

Daniel Santos Over 1.5 Takedowns

It’s kind of wild to me that Daniel Santos is the “A” side of a UFC co-main event when I’m still not sure if he’s good. He’s faced two featherweight opponents who came from Road to UFC, so Doo Ho Choi is a huge step up in competition.

Even favoring “The Korean Superboy” to win the fight, Santos’ takedown prop is far too low. Choi has surrendered 7 takedowns in his last three fights, and he’s got really poor takedown defense (47%) overall.

Santos quickly landed a seminal blow just 21 seconds into Round 2 against JooSang Yoo, so if you remove that and just take his last four full rounds, he’s landed 7 takedowns, and he’s tried 20 (!).

Choi has been durable against decently hard hitters like Kyle Nelson, Nate Landwehr, and Bill Algeo since returning to the promotion. Outside of a quick bonk, it’s tough to see Santos — a converted bantamweight that I still believe doesn’t carry special power at a 0.70 KD% — not being in a longer, competitive fight.

This median projection for Santos implies a 68.5% chance he floors the South Korean fighter at least twice. Anecdotally, I could see this looking like a totally broken line that the Brazilian’s fervent pace cashes in under a round.